Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

[Ice]

Lamar jackson seems like another Vick all over again so to me he will not be a great qb to thrrow. Same for Murray. Running qb who could have not trouble to be successful at throwing where few in my mind. Steve Young and John Elway comes to my mind. It is possible Jackson can become good to throw but that means he will run less. Personnaly i do not count on that but i could be wrong

HMMMM

John Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9% Y/A 7.1

Lamar Jackson rookie year completion percentage was 58.2% Y/A 7.1

[jenkins.math]

HMMMM

John Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9% Y/A 7.1

Lamar Jackson rookie year completion percentage was 58.2% Y/A 7.1

John Elway threw for more than 20 TD's only 6 times in his entire career. Troy Aikman only once. Comparing the numbers of today's QB's with guys from 20 years ago is irresponsible. The NFL has made the game more QB and passing friendly for today's players. It's almost an entirely different league.

[Pac_Eddy]

One of the biggest reasons I believe Lamar Jackson is not a good passer is that the Ravens changed their entire offense to suit his running and limit his passing to a couple reads and half of the field. They ran the ball more than any other team once Jackson was the starter.

Yeah, he can change and get better, but more running QBs don't become good passers than do. This is not being a hater or naive, it's playing the odds.

[Ice]

HMMMM

John Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9% Y/A 7.1

Lamar Jackson rookie year completion percentage was 58.2% Y/A 7.1

John Elway threw for more than 20 TD's only 6 times in his entire career. Troy Aikman only once. Comparing the numbers of today's QB's with guys from 20 years ago is irresponsible. The NFL has made the game more QB and passing friendly for today's players. It's almost an entirely different league.

All that is true but then again with all the group think about the Ravens as an old school running team thought it was an interesting stat.

Around hear, everyone claims Lamar can’t throw it so they will run all the time.

The point was one can’t really have it both ways.

The real question is will the Ravens modernize their offense to compete with Lamar. The draft is an indication they intend to do just that.

[ninotoreS]

Tebow statistically was an accurate and efficient passer in college. 66.4 career completion percentage and a gaudy 9.3 yards per attempt mark. It's not impossible Jackson develops to become much better as a pro-level passer, but citing his college statistics to support that hope isn't a good argument.

Unlike with Tebow, Jackson's main problem isn't arm-talent, it's that he doesn't make many progressions, and he's got the yips about throwing outside the numbers. But Michael Vick also had all the arm talent needed to theoretically be a good (even great) pro-level passer, and it never developed with him.

Jackson's potential as a passer is all projection, and as such will depend greatly on whether or not Baltimore can coach it out of him. Tyrod Taylor had (and still has) very similar issues as Jackson, and he never developed past it after being drafted by Harbaugh.

[Ice]

FYI, OP, Tebow statistically was an accurate and efficient passer in college, too. 66.4 career completion percentage and a 9.3 yards per attempt mark.

It's not impossible Jackson develops to become much better as a pro-level passer, but citing his college statistics to support that hope isn't a good argument.

Drastically different throwing motion. Nothing like Tebow. Tebow threw a football with an outfielders baseball throwing motion. That was his problem. He could get away with that in college but at a pro level that slow release is disaster due to game speed.

[ninotoreS]

My point there was broad: college passing statistics don't reliably forecast pro statistics, for a variety of reasons. Anyway, read my edit.

[Ice]

My point there was broad: college passing statistics don't reliably forecast pro statistics, for a variety of reasons. Anyway, read my edit.

[jenkins.math]

HMMMM

John Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9% Y/A 7.1

Lamar Jackson rookie year completion percentage was 58.2% Y/A 7.1

John Elway threw for more than 20 TD's only 6 times in his entire career. Troy Aikman only once. Comparing the numbers of today's QB's with guys from 20 years ago is irresponsible. The NFL has made the game more QB and passing friendly for today's players. It's almost an entirely different league.

All that is true but then again with all the group think about the Ravens as an old school running team thought it was an interesting stat.

Around hear, everyone claims Lamar can’t throw it so they will run all the time.

The point was one can’t really have it both ways.

The real question is will the Ravens modernize their offense to compete with Lamar. The draft is an indication they intend to do just that.

I haven't seen anyone question that or say the Ravens had a bad draft. Of course they are going to try and develop Lamar as a passer and develop the passing game. The question lies in how much can he really develop as a passer? That's the point I think you are either missing or ignoring.

How many QBs have come from a simple 2 read system and then go on to excel at the pro level for an extended period of time? The only one I can think of over the last 15 years or so is Cam Newton and Lamar isn't near the freak of nature Cam is. Even so, Cam has been very up and down as a passer and has dealt with numerous injuries. The other guys I can think of off the top of my head are Tebow, Mariota and Vince Young as first rounders. Those guys had some early success in the NFL, but then the league caught on. The 2nd half of the Browns game and for all but the last 8 minutes of the wild card game, the Ravens offense was completely shut down. It's almost as if the league figured something out. If Lamar can't beat you in the pocket he isn't going to last long in the NFL. Now the NFL has an entire offseason to get ready for him and find his tendencies. The "sophomore slump" is about teams having film on your now and the ability to study you. It's not a foregone conclusion he gets better.

Something else concerning about Lamar long term was his wonderlic score of 13. That's atrocious. Since 2000 the average super bowl winning QB had an average wonderlic score of 30. If the Ravens feel like Lamar can't get them to the Super Bowl, how long do you think the Lamar Jackson experience is going to last? While the wonderlic doesn't directly correlate to fantasy numbers, if Lamar isn't seen as a viable long term option, him on the bench makes him fantasy irrelevant.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Jackson certainly has a long way to go as a passer, and no know really knows whether or not he will develop into a good or maybe even great passer. Go with your gut.

If you think he'll become a good passer, then you should be buying everywhere because a QB who can throw with his running and athleticism will be a top-5 fantasy QB for years to come.

If you don't think he'll develop into a better passer, then you should be selling everywhere because sooner or later a run-heavy gimmicky offense will get him hurt.

[IR1]

Not really sure what to expect from him, but if the plan was for him to sit and learn last year, and then he's forced into a starting role, I'd give him a lot of leeway- that said, I'm in the group that will sell if I get a solid offer

[Ice]

@Jenkins

See Mahomes for the most recent example but in reality most offenses in college these days are quick and simple two read systems, as you call it, and in fact a ton primarily have a single read.

Are you implying Jackson can’t read a defense or learn an NFL playbook ?

[Chwf3rd]

1. The OPs numbers for Jackson are completely off, like somebody mentioned, not sure where he got them from. He was on pace for 2745 passing yards, 13.7 TDs & 6.8 INTs with a 58% completion percentage. Not very encouraging. If you want to see the effect he had on his WRs, just look at John Brown's stats with Lamar and with Flacco.

2. There is a reason Baltimore completely changed their offense when Lamar came in. Sure they want to utilize his running ability but they were also terrified of him throwing the ball. Watching the games last year it would be 3rd and 7 and yet they still felt more comfortable trying to run the ball for a 1st down rather than have Lamar throw it.

3. The eye test shows you that he's an inaccurate passer going back to his days at Louisville. He looks extremely uncomfortable in the pocket and his footwork is a mess. Mike Renner from PFF put together a good compilation of inaccurate throws from him: https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1111319959978823683

4. Of course he can improve but he's starting at such a low point as a passer than I have a hard time seeing him improving enough to ever become even a league average passing QB

[Chris_R]

He can be a good passer. He can also be limited enough in his deficiencies and the offense to where he never makes any WR valuable enough to start weekly. I don't doubt he can play well, win games, make good passes, etc. But if you're counting on a) Lamar throwing 25 times a game and sustaining enough production to support any WRs or b) the Ravens suddenly turning into a team that throws 35+ times per game you're betting on terrible odds.

Of course the Ravens want to throw it, want speed, etc, but is it enough to be fantasy relevant beyond a random huge week here and there? A career high passing of 204 yards and the rest are sub 200 yard games. That's a lot of hope to put into a situation changing.

[jenkins.math]

@Jenkins

See Mahomes for the most recent example but in reality most offenses in college these days are quick and simple two read systems, as you call it, and in fact a ton primarily have a single read.

Are you implying Jackson can’t read a defense or learn an NFL playbook ?

Pat Mahomes system at Tech was completely different than the system Lamar ran last year in Baltimore and at UL. Lamar's reads were much similar to the reads that Tebow, Vince Young, and Mariota had to do, which is why I listed them. Not to mention Mahomes arm talent is in a totally different stratosphere.

Not sure where I implied anything about him not being able to read a defense or learn an NFL playbook. If you're referring to my wonderlic comment; I will say that a 13 on a wonderlic is bad and makes me think he isn't the sharpest tool in the shed.