Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

[kmbryant09]

I think Diontae Johnson is one of the biggest off-season buy candidates around the league. He established himself as the clear #2 WR in Pittsburgh, and while I'm not quite as confident as some other members around here, there is an outside chance he establishes himself as the #1 WR moving forward.

I'm sure I don't need to remind you, but JuJu is only 1 season removed from a 110 / 1,400 / 7 season operating as Ben's #2 WR. And while that might seem far-fetched given what we saw from Pittsburgh's offense this year, consider that Mason Rudolph & Duck Hodges combined for an embarrassing 2,900 passing yards and 18 passing TD's. In 2018, Big Ben lead the Steelers to 5,000 passing yards and 35 passing TD's. Assuming, and it's a big question mark, Ben returns healthy for 2020, the skill position players in Pittsburgh are going to eat.

Also consider how Diontae's season compared to another rookie darling in the dynasty community, D.K. Metcalf:

D. Johnson________________________________________D.K. Metcalf
92 targets___________________________________________100 targets
59 catches___________________________________________58 catches
721 yards (including rushing)____________________________911 yards
5 touchdowns_________________________________________7 touchdowns
3.6 average yards of separation/target (1st among WRs)______2.5 average yards of separation/target (68th among WRs)
*QBs = Mason Rudolph & Duck Hodges____________________*QBs = Russell Wilson
**Wasn't a full-time player early in the year_________________**Full-time player all season long

As for the yards discrepancy, I cannot find the stat but I believe Diontae's aDOT was considerably lower than Metcalf's - which would contribute to the yardage gap. That, and the yards of separation/target are obviously a product of their respective game / strengths, but I think Diontae's rookie season was as impressive as Metcalf's in ever single fashion when you consider their QB play. This isn't to knock Metcalf - who impressed more than I expected given his limited route-running ability. And I'm also not comparing the 2 players stylistically. But Metcalf's value has risen as of late while Johnson has large been an afterthought.

Long story short, I think Diontae is a top30 WR next season assuming Big Ben is healthy. My guess is his current ADP puts him around WR #50, which makes him such an obvious buy right now.

[FantasyFreak]

Yet to be determined, but wouldn't at all be shocked if Johnson is worth more after next season. Juju will see top CB regularly next season. Having Big Ben back, even with him losing a step, is huge next season. In redraft, I'm going after Dionte for his price, not JuJu.

If you're talking about being worth more than Juju, I would. Juju's the better player and I don't see how it's even close. Dionte is a nice number 2, but he's not the football player Juju is. They are the same age (actually Juju is slightly younger), and I don't see how a a Johnson surpasses Juju as a Dynasty player. Just sounds like hot takes around here to me. Not saying you, in particular. I think a lot of people just post outlandish stuff to be able to point back to and say "I told you so". If he becomes the number 1, I guess he'll see all the top corners at some point, which will push all the targets back to Juju. So it's all good for Juju in the end.

[Jigga94]

Yet to be determined, but wouldn't at all be shocked if Johnson is worth more after next season. Juju will see top CB regularly next season. Having Big Ben back, even with him losing a step, is huge next season. In redraft, I'm going after Dionte for his price, not JuJu.

If you're talking about being worth more than Juju, I would. Juju's the better player and I don't see how it's even close. Dionte is a nice number 2, but he's not the football player Juju is. They are the same age (actually Juju is slightly younger), and I don't see how a a Johnson surpasses Juju as a Dynasty player. Just sounds like hot takes around here to me. Not saying you, in particular. I think a lot of people just post outlandish stuff to be able to point back to and say "I told you so". If he becomes the number 1, I guess he'll see all the top corners at some point, which will push all the targets back to Juju. So it's all good for Juju in the end.

It's the next Evans/Godwin situation lol... or AB/Juju if you will

[Ice]

Yet to be determined, but wouldn't at all be shocked if Johnson is worth more after next season. Juju will see top CB regularly next season. Having Big Ben back, even with him losing a step, is huge next season. In redraft, I'm going after Dionte for his price, not JuJu.

If you're talking about being worth more than Juju, I would. Juju's the better player and I don't see how it's even close. Dionte is a nice number 2, but he's not the football player Juju is. They are the same age (actually Juju is slightly younger), and I don't see how a a Johnson surpasses Juju as a Dynasty player. Just sounds like hot takes around here to me. Not saying you, in particular. I think a lot of people just post outlandish stuff to be able to point back to and say "I told you so". If he becomes the number 1, I guess he'll see all the top corners at some point, which will push all the targets back to Juju. So it's all good for Juju in the end.

Not sure it's a hot take or Outlandish personally. What I see in these two players is adequate speed on film but where I see significant differences is in their quickness and fluidity out of their breaks. Johnson looks much quicker to my eye and he doesn't exhibit tells in route direction IMO.

We will see more next year when they get their QB back. JuJu is a good a player but he was one I avoided once AB was gone because I never liked his quickness much and didn't think he would excel against the top competition.

I see JuJu as a scheme fit WR and what is good for his owners is the Steelers scheme their players really well.

This could be a 1 and 1A situation but I like Johnson's upside in routes better. I think these two are way closer than some think.

[FantasyFreak]

Yet to be determined, but wouldn't at all be shocked if Johnson is worth more after next season. Juju will see top CB regularly next season. Having Big Ben back, even with him losing a step, is huge next season. In redraft, I'm going after Dionte for his price, not JuJu.

If you're talking about being worth more than Juju, I would. Juju's the better player and I don't see how it's even close. Dionte is a nice number 2, but he's not the football player Juju is. They are the same age (actually Juju is slightly younger), and I don't see how a a Johnson surpasses Juju as a Dynasty player. Just sounds like hot takes around here to me. Not saying you, in particular. I think a lot of people just post outlandish stuff to be able to point back to and say "I told you so". If he becomes the number 1, I guess he'll see all the top corners at some point, which will push all the targets back to Juju. So it's all good for Juju in the end.

Not sure it's a hot take or Outlandish personally. What I see in these two players is adequate speed on film but where I see significant differences is in their quickness and fluidity out of their breaks. Johnson looks much quicker to my eye and he doesn't exhibit tells in route direction IMO.

We will see more next year when they get their QB back. JuJu is a good a player but he was one I avoided once AB was gone because I never liked his quickness much and didn't think he would excel against the top competition.

I see JuJu as a scheme fit WR and what is good for his owners is the Steelers scheme their players really well.

This could be a 1 and 1A situation but I like Johnson's upside in routes better. I think these two are way closer than some think.

Yeah, I'm going to bow out of this thread, then. I don't really want to get into amateur film analysis and who's routes are better according to fantasy football players, I don't really value that type of dialogue a whole lot. Until Dionte puts up anything close to what Juju did his first 2 years (and the AB thing aside, there's little argument that Johnson could have done that in the same situation.) I think Johnson and his 11.5 YPR is being massively over rated at this point if people are thinking he's going to be a WR1 on his own team, and a better player than Juju.

[Sriracha]

Yeah, I'm going to bow out of this thread, then. I don't really want to get into amateur film analysis and who's routes are better according to fantasy football players, I don't really value that type of dialogue a whole lot. Until Dionte puts up anything close to what Juju did his first 2 years (and the AB thing aside, there's little argument that Johnson could have done that in the same situation.) I think Johnson and his 11.5 YPR is being massively over rated at this point if people are thinking he's going to be a WR1 on his own team, and a better player than Juju.

I still think Juju's a baller, but you don't have to rely on film to realize Diontae gets a ton of separation as he finished #1 in the NFL in yards of target separation at 2.34

I'm largely a data guy, but Diontae's versatility popped off the page to me. The only year he had an NFL level QB (Logan Woodside) starting for him he pulled 1278 receiving yards and 13TDs his Sophmore season. He left for the NFL early, and was a prolific return man (which is something in common with a lot of unheralded WR's that become superstars in the NFL -- Antonio Brown, Steve Smith)... then you watch the film and you see the electric feet, suddenness in his change of direction, ability to shred press coverage and YAC ability in the open field... and you instantly think of Antonio Brown.

AB is a freaking unicorn, and it does Diontae a disservice to say he needs to be the next Antonio Brown to be a success... but he's flashing in a way that few players do at the NFL level. #2 WR in broken tackles without possessing elite athletic ability, #1 in yards of target separation, and he's already housed a punt return touchdown at the NFL level. NFL defenses have already begun to treat him as the Steelers #1 WR towards the second half of the season (double covered with Tre'davius White shadowing him vs BUF).

Why people aren't more excited about him is likely because the entire Steelers offense muted his production this year. His raw stats aren't incredibly impressive, but when you combine the level of QB play Mason Rudolph, and Devlin Hodges gave this year with the incredibly low volume, conservative passing offense PIT used to rely on their defense during their playoff push... those stats become much more impressive.

[Ice]

If you're talking about being worth more than Juju, I would. Juju's the better player and I don't see how it's even close. Dionte is a nice number 2, but he's not the football player Juju is. They are the same age (actually Juju is slightly younger), and I don't see how a a Johnson surpasses Juju as a Dynasty player. Just sounds like hot takes around here to me. Not saying you, in particular. I think a lot of people just post outlandish stuff to be able to point back to and say "I told you so". If he becomes the number 1, I guess he'll see all the top corners at some point, which will push all the targets back to Juju. So it's all good for Juju in the end.

Not sure it's a hot take or Outlandish personally. What I see in these two players is adequate speed on film but where I see significant differences is in their quickness and fluidity out of their breaks. Johnson looks much quicker to my eye and he doesn't exhibit tells in route direction IMO.

We will see more next year when they get their QB back. JuJu is a good a player but he was one I avoided once AB was gone because I never liked his quickness much and didn't think he would excel against the top competition.

I see JuJu as a scheme fit WR and what is good for his owners is the Steelers scheme their players really well.

This could be a 1 and 1A situation but I like Johnson's upside in routes better. I think these two are way closer than some think.

Yeah, I'm going to bow out of this thread, then. I don't really want to get into amateur film analysis and who's routes are better according to fantasy football players, I don't really value that type of dialogue a whole lot. Until Dionte puts up anything close to what Juju did his first 2 years (and the AB thing aside, there's little argument that Johnson could have done that in the same situation.) I think Johnson and his 11.5 YPR is being massively over rated at this point if people are thinking he's going to be a WR1 on his own team, and a better player than Juju.

No worries, JuJu had a great year a couple of years ago.

He could again.

It’s Fantasy Football and all about projection. The Steelers scouting staff and others if the reports are right thought very highly of Johnson so it’s not just fantasy players that have opinions on him.

[stoneghost28]

Yup, people don’t realize that virtually the same draft capital was spent on Diontae as Juju, they were like two picks like 64th overall and 66th or something like that. The organization apparently likes them equally as far as draft capital goes. Time will tell who the more productive WR will be but I wouldn’t just assume it’s Juju.

Or maybe people think we have a much larger sample size of what Juju can do w/good health and competent quarterbacking across 24 games in '17 and '18 and we've got 4 good games from Diontae total in a lost season w/dumpster fire QB's running that offense.

I think people need to hit the breaks a bit, and I'm the last guy on the planet to normally say that. I managed to pick him up in one trade, and pick him up off waivers in another, so I'm happy about that, but It never ceases to amaze me how quickly people grab onto short term results and small sample size and just run, run, run with it, ignoring everything that came before, or that it's a small window of results.

I think Diontae looks like he's going to be a useful WR at the NFL level, and may end up becoming a WR in that 20th-30th area if a bunch of things break right. But Juju? Come on now, to have that competition be reasonable we need to see Diontae do it over multiple seasons and not just 4 or 5 games. And regardless, they are totally different WR's w/radically different skill set's, no matter what happens, they probably won't interfere too much w/one another simply because of how they're likely to be used in a fully functional offense.

[CGW]

I'm not ready to crown Diontae as better than Juju, but at the same time could easily see him becoming a better player.

If we always waited for several high end seasons to grade a WR, we would miss out on the majority of fantasy assets. Speculation is part of the game, and I have no problem with someone liking Diontae's skill over juju' s. For the record, I like them both and actively buying both.

[thebeast]

Yup, people don’t realize that virtually the same draft capital was spent on Diontae as Juju, they were like two picks like 64th overall and 66th or something like that. The organization apparently likes them equally as far as draft capital goes. Time will tell who the more productive WR will be but I wouldn’t just assume it’s Juju.

Or maybe people think we have a much larger sample size of what Juju can do w/good health and competent quarterbacking across 24 games in '17 and '18 and we've got 4 good games from Diontae total in a lost season w/dumpster fire QB's running that offense.

I think people need to hit the breaks a bit, and I'm the last guy on the planet to normally say that. I managed to pick him up in one trade, and pick him up off waivers in another, so I'm happy about that, but It never ceases to amaze me how quickly people grab onto short term results and small sample size and just run, run, run with it, ignoring everything that came before, or that it's a small window of results.

I think Diontae looks like he's going to be a useful WR at the NFL level, and may end up becoming a WR in that 20th-30th area if a bunch of things break right. But Juju? Come on now, to have that competition be reasonable we need to see Diontae do it over multiple seasons and not just 4 or 5 games. And regardless, they are totally different WR's w/radically different skill set's, no matter what happens, they probably won't interfere too much w/one another simply because of how they're likely to be used in a fully functional offense.

Your points are solid, my point is don't miss the boat on Diontae, he is relatively inexpensive now. There is more than an outside chance that he will hold at least similar value to Juju at some point so buying him now would be a massive discount. These are the types of investments that can turn a team around.

[Sriracha]

Diontae named to the All-Pro team as PR

[kmbryant09]

Digging up this thread, just saw this stat posted on RotoUnderworld's Twitter (shout out).

Most WR Target Separation in 2019:
1. Diontae Johnson - 2.39
2. Demarcus Robinson - 2.02
3. Tyreek Hill - 1.97
4. Albert Wilson - 1.97
5. DaeSean Hamilton - 1.92
6. Tyler Lockett - 1.91
7. Steven Sims - 1.90
8. Davante Adams - 1.88
9. Cole Beasley - 1.86
10. Deebo Samuel - 1.84

Not a perfect stat and not necessarily a list of 10 NFL studs, but this does confirm that Diontae is a very, very good route runner, especially for a rookie.

I also thought it was quite impressive that the gap between Diontae Johnson and the #2 player on this list (.37 yards) was twice as wide as the gap between the #2 player and the #10 player on this list (.18 yards).

Excited to see what this guy can do with some improved QB play in 2020.

[killer_of_giants]

Digging up this thread, just saw this stat posted on RotoUnderworld's Twitter (shout out).

Most WR Target Separation in 2019:
1. Diontae Johnson - 2.39
2. Demarcus Robinson - 2.02
3. Tyreek Hill - 1.97
4. Albert Wilson - 1.97
5. DaeSean Hamilton - 1.92
6. Tyler Lockett - 1.91
7. Steven Sims - 1.90
8. Davante Adams - 1.88
9. Cole Beasley - 1.86
10. Deebo Samuel - 1.84

throw these stats away, guy looks like he's never open!

[mild]

Digging up this thread, just saw this stat posted on RotoUnderworld's Twitter (shout out).

Most WR Target Separation in 2019:
1. Diontae Johnson - 2.39
2. Demarcus Robinson - 2.02
3. Tyreek Hill - 1.97
4. Albert Wilson - 1.97
5. DaeSean Hamilton - 1.92
6. Tyler Lockett - 1.91
7. Steven Sims - 1.90
8. Davante Adams - 1.88
9. Cole Beasley - 1.86
10. Deebo Samuel - 1.84

throw these stats away, guy looks like he's never open!

That was exactly the name that stood out to me too

Wait... DaeSean Hamilton is...... maybe really really good?

[kmbryant09]

As a Denver fan, part of Hamilton's problem was mental lapses - either running the wrong route or flat-out dropping wide-open passes.

I don't know how this stat is calculated, but I also know Hamilton had some success working the middle of the field - an area that probably more conducive to finding more separation than on the boundary.