Code Red Panic- David Johnson

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nathanq42
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David Johnson, older but unused

Postby nathanq42 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:48 pm

He is 26, but only has ~525 touches.

He is older than the majority of other elite level backs except bell (who has 1550 touches). But has fewer carries than most (Not including rookies)

Zeke ~630
Gurley ~910
Freeman ~950
Melvin gordon ~850

RBs tend to have careers that usually end around 30 years old, but by that rule of thumb DJ only has a few seasons left of decent-high end production.

Do RBs fall off around 30 because of age and slower recovery for older players, or because of accumulated punishment over a usually 8 year career.

Will DJ be able to produce well past 30 because he was an old rookie and doesn't have too many miles on his tires or are the days numbered?

Are the young studs going to burn out earlier because of being ran into the ground on their rookie contracts, or will they be able to recover just fine and play up to and possibly after 30?
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby collbey » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:36 pm

Think it is a combination of age and touches. Also should probably factor in College touches ... DJ~1000, Bell~750, Gurley~700, Zeke~650, Freeman~450, Gordon~650.

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby Vcize » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:41 pm

There have been some pretty extensive studies on this. I'm on my phone now so can't dig them up but I believe the general consensus was that age is a much much larger indicator than workload.

In fact when you look at guys that have remained very productive well into their 30s they are mostly guys that had a large workload before getting there. Emmitt, Gore, Curtis Martin. While there are plenty of Brian Westbrooks and Jamaal Charles and Larry Johnsons and Michael Turners that had similar touches at this age to what DJ does but still declined rapidly as they hit the big 3-0.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:07 pm

There are a lot of factors and no RB is equal. Many RB's tend to start falling off at 29-30...some do before that...some remain quality RB's into their early 30's.

A RB takes a lot of punishment at his position and their recovery rate after nicks and dings tends to start slowing at 30 years old. That's why they fall off.

I do believe that wear and tear on a RB does contribute though. So, Bell in my eyes falls to #5 for dynasty RB's. I would take Gurley, Elliot, Barkley, Johnson and then Bell.

I think Johnson will come back strong this year...though I'm probably going to try to flip him plus something to get Elliot or Gurley. Youth with talent is king. I don't think David Johnson is ready to fall off. But, then he'll be 27 and get knocked down a few spots even if he performs well...then another year he drops a few more. Whereas guys who are 22/23 right now have a good 6 years still potentially.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby thebeast » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:44 pm

Johnson is an interesting case. But his value this year has me intrigued, he is either a sell high or a buy low right now, I honestly don’t know which. All owners will immediately say he will return to form because thats what they want to happen, but the injury and the yet to be determined QB have me worried. We will find out how elite he truly is.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby nathanq42 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:01 pm

^ I'm worried about the team around him

The injury is no cause for concern, just a dislocated wrist. I doubt it will have any impact on his play
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby Vcize » Sat Mar 03, 2018 6:47 pm

Touches through age 26...

David Johnson - 551
Larry Johnson - 532
Brian Westbrook - 676
Michael Turner - 627

All of those guys were pretty much useless beyond age 29 despite minimal usage prior to age 27. I don't think it really makes much of a difference how much mileage they get in the early years. I certainly haven't seen any data saying as much.
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RB: Cook, A Jones, Mixon, Kerryon, Hunt, Hill, Drake
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QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:39 pm

DJ is a freak athlete, so even when he loses a little he'll still be an above average athlete
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:51 pm

I’m not too worried about DJ. He should get so many touches/targets for that Cardinals team that he’s going to be a top 5 PPR RB, imo.

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby skip » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:16 pm

Age is the #1 factor. Touches has very little to do with it. Some of the most successful in the game not only had major workloads throughout their career but large ones in college as well.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby jeffster » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am

I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.

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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby _yeti » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:57 am

skip wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:16 pm
Age is the #1 factor. Touches has very little to do with it. Some of the most successful in the game not only had major workloads throughout their career but large ones in college as well.
Agree. I think that as fast twitch muscle goes and you see athletes lose a step around 30 it just proves death for RBs who rely on those constant reactions, cuts, bursts, etc.

A QB is all about arm, pocket awareness, knowledge and mastery of the offense, etc. I think the fact is that RB is a position where as soon as you lose a step there is a young guy who can do it better where you can lose several steps at QB (or OL, or WR, or TE) and still be a much better option than the young guys because of your advanced mastery of the position. Look how clunky AP has started to look when he runs.
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby ArrylT » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:53 am

jeffster wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am
I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.
I recall that article. :)
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Re: David Johnson, older but unused

Postby jeffster » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:52 am

ArrylT wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:53 am
jeffster wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:44 am
I don't have a link, but I believe it was Adam Harsha who wrote a good one about the age dropoff for RBs. If I recall, the gist was that the average is misleading, because RBs either drop off early or last nearly as long as WRs? Have to look it up, but if I'm recalling it right then it suggests there's no reason to assume DJ can't be effective for years.
I recall that article. :)
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