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Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
by johnnymozart
As an owner of what will likely be picks 6 and 7 in 2020, I am curious how valuable these picks will actually become. It seems as though, given the hype, this may be the absolute peak value they will ever see.

Now I know that it is only November, but it has seemed for the last couple months that most 2020 mocks have very similar top 5's (in some order of Swift, Jeudy, Etienne, Taylor, Lamb). Then a clear tier drop... The class is also being lauded as being incredibly deep (the 2020 2nd may be worth a 2019 1st!! truthers) so I am beginning to wonder if this is going to become one of the drafts where you either have an early pick slam dunk or have just as good a shot with pick 15 to find the next stud as pick 6. I do not follow college football religiously and allow others to do my research for the most part. It's very possible the actual argument here is that Dobbins/Akers are in a tier drop that makes them more closely resemble potential Josh Jacobs as opposed to potential Miles Sanders/Monty types.

This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:54 am
by briank
I believe generally that picks only gain value up until they are on the clock.

I believe the hype. I think the only way they are less valuable than now is if there are serveral injuries and guys choosing to stay in school.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:06 am
by Dibbles
briank wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:54 am
I believe generally that picks only gain value up until they are on the clock.

I believe the hype. I think the only way they are less valuable than now is if there are serveral injuries and guys choosing to stay in school.
^ Agree with this.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:42 am
by vix_trader
I play dynasty like the stock market and I believe there's a case to be made for what you're saying. Guys are treating 1st's like gold in my league right now. Word has gotten around that this class is elite and it seems getting a terrific asset back for a 1st/2nd round pick is legit.

In theory the picks should have more value up until the draft but remember history shows less than 50% of first round picks ever produce significant value.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:52 am
by Pac_Eddy
For me, it sure seems that rookie drafts end up with a top elite tier, then the next tier is very big and spans into the second round.

I'll bet it's the same for this class with that top tier being four, five or six players deep.

If I'm you and have picks 6 and 7, I'd try to get into the top 4 once it's clearer that the pick you're acquiring is going to be that high. It's not bad to stay where you are to see how it shakes out, then make a move after the NFL draft either. But sometimes owners don't estimate their own team very well and you can get a top four pick for less than you think.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:54 am
by MrUbuto
I'm always blown away when someone tries to place there picks this early. Pick 6 and 7 is so unbelievabley specific. All you can sort of be sure is.. playoffs team picks or not. And even then. I've seen so many team barely sneak in to the playoffs and go on a decent run or me last year I was probably the favourite to win it all and got stunned first round ended up with pick 5

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:27 am
by hoos89
johnnymozart wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
Now I know that it is only November, but it has seemed for the last couple months that most 2020 mocks have very similar top 5's (in some order of Swift, Jeudy, Etienne, Taylor, Lamb). Then a clear tier drop...
I disagree somewhat with this characterization of the class. I think the top tier as of today is Swift, Jeudy, Taylor, Lamb, and then a strong 2nd tier of Etienne, Dobbins, Akers plus maybe Ruggs with some solid players behind them (e.g. Chuba, Shenault) who could move up if drafted into a good situation (or if they excel RoS/at the combine). I wouldn't be worried about 6 or 7 falling off in value as the draft approaches.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:31 am
by bjd5211
There are going to be quality prospects throughout the 1st round, especially in SF/2QB leagues. Now obviously the later guys won't be as good as prospects as the later guys, but I think there will be far better prospects available at the end of the 1st round than there are on average wach year.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:32 am
by Vcize
It is way way way too early to try and predict where the tier breaks will be in rookie drafts. Guys will over perform at the combine, guys will under perform at the combine, top prospects will land in bad spots, next tier prospects will land in good spots, etc.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:57 am
by Valhalla
briank wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:54 am
I believe generally that picks only gain value up until they are on the clock.
yep

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:25 am
by jenkins.math
I agree with the multiple posters that have stated the picks should only continue to appreciate up until the pick is actually made.

One difference with this 2020 group though is that I've seen more studs moved this year for picks than normal.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:33 am
by Paul717
vix_trader wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:42 am
I play dynasty like the stock market and I believe there's a case to be made for what you're saying. Guys are treating 1st's like gold in my league right now. Word has gotten around that this class is elite and it seems getting a terrific asset back for a 1st/2nd round pick is legit.

In theory the picks should have more value up until the draft but remember history shows less than 50% of first round picks ever produce significant value.
I concur with this in my league. Guys aren't trading 1sts right now. Heck, guys aren't trading 2nds either. A couple of contending teams have already mortgaged some of their 2020 picks for assets they have now, moves made last year or even earlier. Other contending are staying pat so far...no "arms race" situation and teams are like "F it, I'll head into the playoffs with whatever weaknesses my team has".

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
by Goddard
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:44 am
by Pac_Eddy
Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
It has happened. 2009 comes to mind when the 1.01 dropped in value. But the reason it happened is that there was no obvious elite talents in good landing spots.

The OP was talking about the value of the 1.06 and 1.07, and if there is a consensus tier break at 1.05 after the NFL draft, then yeah, there may be a drop in value.

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:53 am
by Goddard
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:44 am
Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
It has happened. 2009 comes to mind when the 1.01 dropped in value. But the reason it happened is that there was no obvious elite talents in good landing spots.

The OP was talking about the value of the 1.06 and 1.07, and if there is a consensus tier break at 1.05 after the NFL draft, then yeah, there may be a drop in value.
I still don't see it happening, but I guess crazier things have happened before. Who are players that we think we can buy with a mid 1st right now that we might not be able to buy with that same pick in a few months? Assuming that player's value stays the same and doesn't also increase (or decrease I guess). Is someone like Arob worth a mid 1st at this point? I've see a lot of owners claim that's what he should be worth. Will anyone move a mid 1st for him in April or over the summer if his situation doesn't change? That's just one example, but I'm curious who some of those other mid 1st type valued players would be and how they'll be valued 6+ months from now in terms of draft picks.