Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Orenthal Shames » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:19 am

It's called rookie fever for a reason. Hold them picks brah.
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:50 am

Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:53 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:44 am
Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
It has happened. 2009 comes to mind when the 1.01 dropped in value. But the reason it happened is that there was no obvious elite talents in good landing spots.

The OP was talking about the value of the 1.06 and 1.07, and if there is a consensus tier break at 1.05 after the NFL draft, then yeah, there may be a drop in value.
I still don't see it happening, but I guess crazier things have happened before. Who are players that we think we can buy with a mid 1st right now that we might not be able to buy with that same pick in a few months? Assuming that player's value stays the same and doesn't also increase (or decrease I guess). Is someone like Arob worth a mid 1st at this point? I've see a lot of owners claim that's what he should be worth. Will anyone move a mid 1st for him in April or over the summer if his situation doesn't change? That's just one example, but I'm curious who some of those other mid 1st type valued players would be and how they'll be valued 6+ months from now in terms of draft picks.
Funny, I just traded away ARob. Gave him + a 2020 4th, received a 2021 first + 2020 2nd. I think you're right though - someone probably isn't going to want to acquire him for their first if his situation is the same as today. If they have upgraded at QB, there will be some interest.
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby hoos89 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:38 am

sloth8u wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:42 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:46 pm
johnnymozart wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?
I honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.
Came to post something similar. From my experiences, the value of 1sts goes down after the nfl draft, not up. The notion that value goes up is driven by hopes and dreams that owners of a stud will give stud for pick 1.8 and that magically 1.8 is worth a stud. You may see it here and there, but it is not the norm. Owners that want to trade quality players for mid 1st will do it reguardless of the time of year and maybe even less so during the draft when they realize player x (the pick) carries an adp of 56 and their player carries an adp of 30. Its delusional to think that owners suddenly ignore rankings.

What i have found is that the majority of the time...rookies never carry more value than when they are drafted. When pick 8 turns into a player......that player will never reach that adp again. Obviously some players become our future stars....but 70% do not. We can go on and on about rookies ranked in the top 100 that never panned out. We can do the same for top 50 rookies aswell. Trich and doug martin were carrying an adp in startups of 1 & 2 going in to their sophomore yrs.... Never to be relevant again. We dont need to name drop the good and bad, but understand the concept. Maybe this concept is what the previous posters are saying.... picks value goes up when a name is attached. Of course it does. But they also fail to mention that the majority of those players selected will never live up to that adp, and most owners arent taking a huge value drop giving an established player for a rookie. In short.... A mid 1st/late 1st today nets you a better player via trade than when those same picks are assigned a general adp north of 60 in most instances. Owners arent trading player 15 for player 85 in most leagues.

Early 1st are a bit different and typically it depends on the guys comming out. You can and will certainly see more risk taken when giving up top assets for top tier guys. With that said, ive found that once the top tier guys are gone...owners typically settle in and are happy to take who falls to them. If i own a top 5, i will shop it around for a stud right after the season. If nothing pans out and i want to move back.... Gotta get the deal done before the nfl draft. This prevents the owner of 1.6 and 1.9 frpm being able to gauge who will be left and settling for 6 & 9 rather than moving up to 4. Many can attest to the difficulty moving back when they desire to do so.

The obvious scenario of owning the 1.1 is different. There will always be a market for the top pick.
Nobody is suggesting that you can get a stud for a mid-late 1st today or in April. That is a strawman. And yes, of course a the value of a pick goes down as soon as you make the pick in the vast majority of scenarios because not everyone wants the same player with that pick. The idea is that you sell the pick prior to taking a player.

Also, in a draft like 2020 that is deep you probably won't get a ton of value in 2020 picks to move down. You'll probably have to make deals in 2021 picks and vets.
Last edited by hoos89 on Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Haskins
Jacobs, Taylor, Conner, Michel, D. Harris, Love, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, AJB, Sutton, Kupp, Aiyuk, Slayton, MVS, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, Claypool, Bowden, G. Davis
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater
CEH, Gurley, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, McLaurin, Jeudy, J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, Cooks, Watkins, R. Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:41 am

Best practice is to hold the picks. The value is going to continue to rise 90% of the time. Main exception to me would be an unexpectedly thin class (injuries, players not declaring, etc.).

It's easy to trade picks during the season and then "pay for it" in the offseason. Got to fight the urge sometimes.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby perkinsrooster » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:58 am

I own 2 mid firsts and 2 high seconds and plan to hold. I get the logic of the OP but I think the values will go up even more from where they are now.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Goddard » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:16 am

Vcize wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:42 pm
Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
2016 immediately comes to mind. I had 1.05 and 1.10 in that class and nobody wanted them. Best offer I got for 1.05 was a projected late 1st the next year. The 1.10 there was zero interest, couldn't even get a future 1st two years away for it. I ended up taking DeVontae Booker with the pick.

But I don't expect the 2020 class to be anything like that. That only happens when the class looks really really poor, which is the opposite of 2020.
I'm sure there are the few exceptions where some years have a really bad class and no one is interested in picks...but even in 2016, do you think those picks had more value back in November than they did during the offseason? Probably difficult to remember, but I'm assuming it was probably similar value at worst (could be wrong though). Regardless, I just don't see that happening with the 2020 picks.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:21 pm

the 2016 rookie pick hate was real. I sold all my picks for a title run in one league, and as soon as the combine was finished, I wished I had done it in all of my leagues. People wanted a mid-2016 1st+2nd for a random 2017 1st during the draft.

As for selling the 20 picks, I just gave a late 20 1st for Hunter Henry in 12 team PPR.
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I probably should have done something more productive with that time...

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby moishetreats » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:27 pm

We're asking the wrong question here. It's not about whether the value of the pick will appreciate or depreciate. Rather, the question is whether or not we'll be able to sell it for more or less later. Just because something appreciates in value doesn't mean that you can always sell it for more!

We're also looking at this situation the wrong way. Rather than targeting a pinpoint value (e.g., more or less and how much more or less), we should target a range of outcomes. Let's say hypothetically that the pick is 55% likely to increase and 45% likely to decrease. That's a pinpointed target which would suggest -- perhaps erroneously -- to sell.

Now let's say that the pick is 55% likely to increase but, when it increases, it's probably going to increase in value by 25%. And though it's only 45% likely to decrease, where it to decrease, then it would likely decrease by 10%. In THAT case, you'd absolutely hold.

The challenge here is that the range of outcomes is incredibly wide. The pick is more likely to increase in value (suggesting a hold), but the potential for a big drop-off in value, even in less likely, is also real (suggesting a sell).

In the end, I'd shop it. If you could get a deal that you think is worth 1.04ish (give or take) value, then I'd do it. If somehow the value of the pick spikes way above that, then so be it; that unlikelihood came to pass. Odds are that you'll get it. The hype is SO high already that it's hard to project it getting reasonably higher, even close to the draft.
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Slayton, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Harmon, Meyers, S Miller
TE: Kelce, Henry, Goedert, Jarwin, Walker, Alie-Cox, Moreau

2020: 3rd, 4thx3, 5th
2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 5th
2022: 1st, 2nd, 3rdx2, 4th



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Garappolo (5/20) [Morgan (1/24), Luton (1/24), Gordon (1/24)]
RB: Mixon (29/20), Gurley (5/20), Dillon (12/24), Z Moss (10/24), Hines (1/20) [Perine (2/22)]
WR: Adams (12/20), Cooper (28/20), Kupp (3/21), Diggs (19/21), AJ Brown (7/23), Cooks (8/21), R Anderson (3/21)
TE: Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby hoos89 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:35 pm

moishetreats wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:27 pm
We're asking the wrong question here. It's not about whether the value of the pick will appreciate or depreciate. Rather, the question is whether or not we'll be able to sell it for more or less later. Just because something appreciates in value doesn't mean that you can always sell it for more!
This seems a bit pedantic. I'm pretty sure what people mean when they say "the value of the pick will appreciate leading up to the draft" is that you will be able to get more for it. That's literally the whole point of people saying that if you're going to sell a pick you should wait... because they expect you'll be able to get more for it later.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Haskins
Jacobs, Taylor, Conner, Michel, D. Harris, Love, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, AJB, Sutton, Kupp, Aiyuk, Slayton, MVS, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, Claypool, Bowden, G. Davis
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater
CEH, Gurley, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, McLaurin, Jeudy, J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, Cooks, Watkins, R. Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:49 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:35 pm
moishetreats wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:27 pm
We're asking the wrong question here. It's not about whether the value of the pick will appreciate or depreciate. Rather, the question is whether or not we'll be able to sell it for more or less later. Just because something appreciates in value doesn't mean that you can always sell it for more!
This seems a bit pedantic. I'm pretty sure what people mean when they say "the value of the pick will appreciate leading up to the draft" is that you will be able to get more for it. That's literally the whole point of people saying that if you're going to sell a pick you should wait... because they expect you'll be able to get more for it later.
I think what he is trying to say is that draft picks become more liquid as the draft approaches because there will be more buyers. But there will also be more sellers, so there's no way to predict if the value of a random pick will appreciate until you can associate a player value to the pick. Marquee picks (let's say 1.01 & 1.02) will likely increase closer to the draft as there will be more buyers and the asset will alway be pretty scarce. I think it's safe to say that if you own slam dunk Top 1, 2 or maybe 3 & 4 pick, then the best bet is to wait.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby sloth8u » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:33 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:38 am
sloth8u wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:42 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:46 pm


I honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.
Came to post something similar. From my experiences, the value of 1sts goes down after the nfl draft, not up. The notion that value goes up is driven by hopes and dreams that owners of a stud will give stud for pick 1.8 and that magically 1.8 is worth a stud. You may see it here and there, but it is not the norm. Owners that want to trade quality players for mid 1st will do it reguardless of the time of year and maybe even less so during the draft when they realize player x (the pick) carries an adp of 56 and their player carries an adp of 30. Its delusional to think that owners suddenly ignore rankings.

What i have found is that the majority of the time...rookies never carry more value than when they are drafted. When pick 8 turns into a player......that player will never reach that adp again. Obviously some players become our future stars....but 70% do not. We can go on and on about rookies ranked in the top 100 that never panned out. We can do the same for top 50 rookies aswell. Trich and doug martin were carrying an adp in startups of 1 & 2 going in to their sophomore yrs.... Never to be relevant again. We dont need to name drop the good and bad, but understand the concept. Maybe this concept is what the previous posters are saying.... picks value goes up when a name is attached. Of course it does. But they also fail to mention that the majority of those players selected will never live up to that adp, and most owners arent taking a huge value drop giving an established player for a rookie. In short.... A mid 1st/late 1st today nets you a better player via trade than when those same picks are assigned a general adp north of 60 in most instances. Owners arent trading player 15 for player 85 in most leagues.

Early 1st are a bit different and typically it depends on the guys comming out. You can and will certainly see more risk taken when giving up top assets for top tier guys. With that said, ive found that once the top tier guys are gone...owners typically settle in and are happy to take who falls to them. If i own a top 5, i will shop it around for a stud right after the season. If nothing pans out and i want to move back.... Gotta get the deal done before the nfl draft. This prevents the owner of 1.6 and 1.9 frpm being able to gauge who will be left and settling for 6 & 9 rather than moving up to 4. Many can attest to the difficulty moving back when they desire to do so.

The obvious scenario of owning the 1.1 is different. There will always be a market for the top pick.
Nobody is suggesting that you can get a stud for a mid-late 1st today or in April. That is a strawman. And yes, of course a the value of a pick goes down as soon as you make the pick in the vast majority of scenarios because not everyone wants the same player with that pick. The idea is that you sell the pick prior to taking a player.

Also, in a draft like 2020 that is deep you probably won't get a ton of value in 2020 picks to move down. You'll probably have to make deals in 2021 picks and vets.
I may have used the word "stud" a little loosely, meaning valuable players or large ranking disparity player vs rookie. Lets say player ranked 1-50 vs rookie ranked 50-100 (mid-late 1st). Owners are constantly selling players, so im not too sure why you'd think they arent. Some could probably make an argument that 30 of the current top 50 could be traded for a top 12 2020 rookie pick based off the hype right now. I dont personally feel that way, but thats where the hype is. What im saying is that as the destinations are decided.... Owners will see there player ranked 40, and not be willing to give him up for the rookie ranked 75. The counter argument and what most others are saying....is yes, someone will give you player 40 for your rookie 75.

My understanding of the discussion is will op get better value now or at their draft for their mid 1st. From my experiences in several leagues over 9+ yrs....the norm is that there is better value to be had by moving the pick before names are attached, whether that be now or early offseason. For example, they will have a better shot at landing a better player right now before the rookie pick is on the clock and the best rookies left are ranked 75 & 81. Often times then, owners are willing to give similarly ranked players. This is nothing new. Its also nothing new to see the market dry up if an owner is looking to move back. It never fails that owners are content taking who falls to them.

Yes there are exceptions. This isnt concrete. These same owners saying the pick is more valuable at the draft are the guys saying that they arent trading player 40 for player 75 unless you add to the pick. Its a double edged sword. Your 1.8 is worth more then, to someone...just not me...type scenario.

All leagues are different. Its different year to year. But there are some tendencies that tend to happen and especially so since dynasty leagues have become more popular. Owners being aware of player rankings and owners letting the draft come to them if they cant get their targets are two of the most comon things i see throughout my several leagues.

If your league/s leaguemates dont pay attention to value....sure your going to get the huge overpays some are suggesting. I also feel theres a difference between someone making a move for their guy and just trading to get the pick. Owners will certainly pay more for "their guy". The pick owner just has to hope said owner is in their league.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby moishetreats » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:26 am

hoos89 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:35 pm
moishetreats wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:27 pm
We're asking the wrong question here. It's not about whether the value of the pick will appreciate or depreciate. Rather, the question is whether or not we'll be able to sell it for more or less later. Just because something appreciates in value doesn't mean that you can always sell it for more!
This seems a bit pedantic. I'm pretty sure what people mean when they say "the value of the pick will appreciate leading up to the draft" is that you will be able to get more for it. That's literally the whole point of people saying that if you're going to sell a pick you should wait... because they expect you'll be able to get more for it later.
I wasn't trying to be pedantic, and thanks for letting me know that it might have come off that way. Let me try to re-frame my point in a less over-exacting way.

In the off-season, I was trying to move Russell Wilson in my 2QB league. I couldn't get what I would even consider close to fair value for him then, so I held. I think that it's safe to say that his value has only increased this season; he has appreciated as an asset. Still, the best offers are still only marginally better than ones that I received in the off-season. His "value" has increased, but his trade market has not.

In other words, when we talk about "the value of a pick will appreciate leading up to the draft", we need to make sure that we're asking about the value from other people's perspectives, not ours.

Putting it back into this context, yes, any first-round pick should appreciate in value closer to the draft itself. But, the perceived value of that pick right now is damn friggin' high that selling it right now might get you a better return than selling it when on the clock if the pick's value increases.

That's the real consideration and crux, IMO.
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Slayton, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Harmon, Meyers, S Miller
TE: Kelce, Henry, Goedert, Jarwin, Walker, Alie-Cox, Moreau

2020: 3rd, 4thx3, 5th
2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 5th
2022: 1st, 2nd, 3rdx2, 4th



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Garappolo (5/20) [Morgan (1/24), Luton (1/24), Gordon (1/24)]
RB: Mixon (29/20), Gurley (5/20), Dillon (12/24), Z Moss (10/24), Hines (1/20) [Perine (2/22)]
WR: Adams (12/20), Cooper (28/20), Kupp (3/21), Diggs (19/21), AJ Brown (7/23), Cooks (8/21), R Anderson (3/21)
TE: Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $228

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Pac_Eddy » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:54 am

moishetreats wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:26 am
hoos89 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:35 pm
moishetreats wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:27 pm
We're asking the wrong question here. It's not about whether the value of the pick will appreciate or depreciate. Rather, the question is whether or not we'll be able to sell it for more or less later. Just because something appreciates in value doesn't mean that you can always sell it for more!
This seems a bit pedantic. I'm pretty sure what people mean when they say "the value of the pick will appreciate leading up to the draft" is that you will be able to get more for it. That's literally the whole point of people saying that if you're going to sell a pick you should wait... because they expect you'll be able to get more for it later.
I wasn't trying to be pedantic, and thanks for letting me know that it might have come off that way. Let me try to re-frame my point in a less over-exacting way.

In the off-season, I was trying to move Russell Wilson in my 2QB league. I couldn't get what I would even consider close to fair value for him then, so I held. I think that it's safe to say that his value has only increased this season; he has appreciated as an asset. Still, the best offers are still only marginally better than ones that I received in the off-season. His "value" has increased, but his trade market has not.

In other words, when we talk about "the value of a pick will appreciate leading up to the draft", we need to make sure that we're asking about the value from other people's perspectives, not ours.

Putting it back into this context, yes, any first-round pick should appreciate in value closer to the draft itself. But, the perceived value of that pick right now is damn friggin' high that selling it right now might get you a better return than selling it when on the clock if the pick's value increases.

That's the real consideration and crux, IMO.
In the Russell Wilson example, in that specific market his value didn't appreciate. But it's fair to say that in dynasty in general, his value has gone up.

It's relative.
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby BigBawseRoss » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:06 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:54 am
I'm always blown away when someone tries to place there picks this early. Pick 6 and 7 is so unbelievabley specific. All you can sort of be sure is.. playoffs team picks or not. And even then. I've seen so many team barely sneak in to the playoffs and go on a decent run or me last year I was probably the favourite to win it all and got stunned first round ended up with pick 5
many of my leagues go by potential points and by this point in the season the gaps in that number become larger and larger from team to team and the landscape of early mid and late picks becomes pretty clear.
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Rivers , Rosen, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod
Kamara, McCoy, D FreemanCohen, Bibbs, Clement,J. Allen, ty mont,Ito Smith
K Allen, Hopkins, M Williams, AROB Alshon,KeKe,MVS,T McLaurin
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Trubitsky, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Armstead, Mostert
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans, C Davis, Watkins, Arob, M Williams, Edleman, J Gordon, Hurd
Ertz, Everett, Fant


team 3
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0008

team 4
https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0010

team 5
http://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =0008&O=07

team 6
http://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0004

team 7
https://www51.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0011

hoos89
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Posts: 3936
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:53 pm

Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby hoos89 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:09 am

BigBawseRoss wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:06 am
MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:54 am
I'm always blown away when someone tries to place there picks this early. Pick 6 and 7 is so unbelievabley specific. All you can sort of be sure is.. playoffs team picks or not. And even then. I've seen so many team barely sneak in to the playoffs and go on a decent run or me last year I was probably the favourite to win it all and got stunned first round ended up with pick 5
many of my leagues go by potential points and by this point in the season the gaps in that number become larger and larger from team to team and the landscape of early mid and late picks becomes pretty clear.
Agreed generally, but 6 or 7 implies fringe playoff team...if you think the team will either be the first team out of the playoffs or the last team in then it could ultimately end up anywhere from 6-12.
sloth8u wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:33 pm

I may have used the word "stud" a little loosely, meaning valuable players or large ranking disparity player vs rookie. Lets say player ranked 1-50 vs rookie ranked 50-100 (mid-late 1st). Owners are constantly selling players, so im not too sure why you'd think they arent. Some could probably make an argument that 30 of the current top 50 could be traded for a top 12 2020 rookie pick based off the hype right now. I dont personally feel that way, but thats where the hype is. What im saying is that as the destinations are decided.... Owners will see there player ranked 40, and not be willing to give him up for the rookie ranked 75. The counter argument and what most others are saying....is yes, someone will give you player 40 for your rookie 75.
I don't think there are a lot of people are trading a top 50 player for just a late 2020 1st as of today. That seems like a major exaggeration of the hype surrounding this class. I don't think I've seen a trade yet that implied that a late first was worth any top 50 player, much less 30 of the current top 50.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Haskins
Jacobs, Taylor, Conner, Michel, D. Harris, Love, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, AJB, Sutton, Kupp, Aiyuk, Slayton, MVS, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, Claypool, Bowden, G. Davis
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater
CEH, Gurley, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, McLaurin, Jeudy, J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, Cooks, Watkins, R. Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


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