Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

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alewilliam789
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby alewilliam789 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am

I mean lets list the noteworthy seniors and practically the guarantees to declare:

Seniors:

WRs:
Bryan Edwards
Tyler Johnson
Antonio Gaundy-Golden
Darnell Mooney

RBs:
Zach Moss
Keshawn Vaughn

Of those I think Tyler Johnson and Bryan Edwards are locks for top 14 picks with most likely being 1st rounders.

Guarantee to declare (opinion based:)

WRs:
Jerry Juedy
-His stock is way too high right now not to declare. May not be OBJ, but very-well rounded in most facets of his game (RR, YAC, not a bad blocker).
Ceedee Lamb
- Lamb is lighting it up at Oklahoma and after seeing Brown go in the first I’d be surprised if he didn’t leave. What else does he have to prove at the college level?
Jalen Reagor
-Stuck on a horrific team no way he comes back unless he gets some really bad draft projections come Jan./Feb
KJ Hamler
-Honestly may be the best WR in college football that I haven’t heard one peep about. Isn’t going to win a National Title at PSU and has produced enough that I think he should be graded as a top 1-3 round player.
Leviska Shenault-
Not a huge fan, but Colorado sucks bleep and I’d be surprised if he isn’t a top 4 round pick. Even if he is the next Cordarelle Patterson.

RBs:
Jonathan Taylor-
What more to prove, clear best RB prospect to me. Next
Deandre Swift-
Another early producer that has had enough tread on his tires. Shown out since his first year and could see his stock heavily impacted if he comes back and doesn’t perform at a really high level. Interested in his combine performance tho.
Cam Akers-
Horrible team, great talent. Would make zero sense to go back and risk injury instead of blowing up the combine.
J.K. Dobbins-
See Jonathan Taylor
Chubba Hubbard-
Busted onto the scene after Justice Hill left, looks the part of a 3-down back and after seeing Tylan Wallace have an injury should see its time to go!
AJ Dillon-
Can’t see him boosting his stock much more from what it is at BC. Been an uber performer that even started catching passes between this and last year.
I think he’s going to be an adjusted size/weight freak.

There are a few more that would make sense like Etienne, Kylin Hill, and Eno Benjamin, but I think that either due to playoff contention (Etienne), it being a stacked class (Hill), and just having a bit more to prove (Benjamin) them not declaring.

I think all those players are first round dynasty picks so in no particular order:

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault

So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Goddard » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:57 am

Even in 2019, one of the perceived weaker classes we've had in a while, the picks continued to appreciate in value through the spring and summer.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby hoos89 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:03 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am
I think all those players are first round dynasty picks so in no particular order:

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault

So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
No Etienne? Ruggs?
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Haskins
Jacobs, Taylor, Conner, Michel, D. Harris, Love, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, AJB, Sutton, Kupp, Aiyuk, Slayton, MVS, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, Claypool, Bowden, G. Davis
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater
CEH, Gurley, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, McLaurin, Jeudy, J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, Cooks, Watkins, R. Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Valhalla » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:33 pm

Where's Lache Seastrunk?

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:42 pm

It depends, I think I had the 1.08 in 2017 and the pick adp wise was John Ross and nobody wanted it. Sometimes the pick value can sort of go down if it’s right after a tier drop.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:44 pm

Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
Me neither and I sont expect this to happen. BUT if there was ever a year where this might happen it's this year.

Been hearing about this 2020 draft for awhile and it's possible with a bunch of bad combine numbers guys falling etc people may end up being underwhelmed
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Lumps » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:45 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am


1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault

So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
I think Etienne could go either way. If he stays he plays with Lawrence and Ross one more year and they all leave together. I think it would make sense for him to leave though.

What has me licking my chops is the fact that in SF/2QB and IDP leagues it just drags out that talent further. I own 5 x 1sts, 3 x 2nds, and 2 x 3rds in a 16 team 2 QB IDP league. I can't wait for the draft to get here.

So add on:

Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Fromm
Eason
Chase Young
AJ Epenesa
Simmons
Moses
Weaver

and you didn't even include Ruggs and Reagor in your 12 up there. Whew!

Edit: I wish Reagor would continue to fly under the radar, but it's not gonna happen. He is going to destroy the combine and it's all going to be over.
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:40 pm

If you have a 1st round pick in this class, it's going to be very valuable come summer time. This class is very deep. There's going to be value well into the 2nd round.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:03 pm

Lumps wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:45 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am


1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault

So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
I think Etienne could go either way. If he stays he plays with Lawrence and Ross one more year and they all leave together. I think it would make sense for him to leave though.

What has me licking my chops is the fact that in SF/2QB and IDP leagues it just drags out that talent further. I own 5 x 1sts, 3 x 2nds, and 2 x 3rds in a 16 team 2 QB IDP league. I can't wait for the draft to get here.

So add on:

Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Fromm
Eason
Chase Young
AJ Epenesa
Simmons
Moses
Weaver

and you didn't even include Ruggs and Reagor in your 12 up there. Whew!

Edit: I wish Reagor would continue to fly under the radar, but it's not gonna happen. He is going to destroy the combine and it's all going to be over.
I have a Top 3 #1 & bottom 5 #1 in an IDP ... salivating on the chance to snag Young with my second pick.

As for Etienne, I don't think he has any reason to stay another year. The only hole in his game is as a receiver, but do not think he is likely to become a high priority receiver in an additional year.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby nathanq42 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:19 pm

Sorry for my ignorance, but could someone explain to me why Etienne is not considered a quality receiver when he has more catches that Jonathan Taylor, who has become a plus receiver in this current season?
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister
+1 Flex
Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)

10 Team .5 PPR
Wentz, Brees, Stafford
Swift, Dobbins, Akers, Miles Sanders DeVonta Freeman
Evans, DJ Moore, Sutton, Arob, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Marvin Jones, Shepard, Tate, Westbrook, Campbell
Mark Andrews, Darren Waller
+2 Flex
Picks
No 2021 1st or 3rd

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby Vcize » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:42 pm

Goddard wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am
I can't remember a time where a 1st round pick was worth more in November than it was in April.
2016 immediately comes to mind. I had 1.05 and 1.10 in that class and nobody wanted them. Best offer I got for 1.05 was a projected late 1st the next year. The 1.10 there was zero interest, couldn't even get a future 1st two years away for it. I ended up taking DeVontae Booker with the pick.

But I don't expect the 2020 class to be anything like that. That only happens when the class looks really really poor, which is the opposite of 2020.
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QB: Wentz, Burrow
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Hunt
WR: Hopkins, ARob, Woods, Lockett, Preston, J Jefferson, Cobb
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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby ArrylT » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:46 pm

johnnymozart wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?
I honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby hoos89 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:25 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:19 pm
Sorry for my ignorance, but could someone explain to me why Etienne is not considered a quality receiver when he has more catches that Jonathan Taylor, who has become a plus receiver in this current season?
https://sportsnaut.com/2019/07/travis-e ... ball-news/
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Haskins
Jacobs, Taylor, Conner, Michel, D. Harris, Love, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, AJB, Sutton, Kupp, Aiyuk, Slayton, MVS, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, Claypool, Bowden, G. Davis
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater
CEH, Gurley, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, McLaurin, Jeudy, J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, Cooks, Watkins, R. Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby sloth8u » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:42 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:46 pm
johnnymozart wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?
I honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.
Came to post something similar. From my experiences, the value of 1sts goes down after the nfl draft, not up. The notion that value goes up is driven by hopes and dreams that owners of a stud will give stud for pick 1.8 and that magically 1.8 is worth a stud. You may see it here and there, but it is not the norm. Owners that want to trade quality players for mid 1st will do it reguardless of the time of year and maybe even less so during the draft when they realize player x (the pick) carries an adp of 56 and their player carries an adp of 30. Its delusional to think that owners suddenly ignore rankings.

What i have found is that the majority of the time...rookies never carry more value than when they are drafted. When pick 8 turns into a player......that player will never reach that adp again. Obviously some players become our future stars....but 70% do not. We can go on and on about rookies ranked in the top 100 that never panned out. We can do the same for top 50 rookies aswell. Trich and doug martin were carrying an adp in startups of 1 & 2 going in to their sophomore yrs.... Never to be relevant again. We dont need to name drop the good and bad, but understand the concept. Maybe this concept is what the previous posters are saying.... picks value goes up when a name is attached. Of course it does. But they also fail to mention that the majority of those players selected will never live up to that adp, and most owners arent taking a huge value drop giving an established player for a rookie. In short.... A mid 1st/late 1st today nets you a better player via trade than when those same picks are assigned a general adp north of 60 in most instances. Owners arent trading player 15 for player 85 in most leagues.

Early 1st are a bit different and typically it depends on the guys comming out. You can and will certainly see more risk taken when giving up top assets for top tier guys. With that said, ive found that once the top tier guys are gone...owners typically settle in and are happy to take who falls to them. If i own a top 5, i will shop it around for a stud right after the season. If nothing pans out and i want to move back.... Gotta get the deal done before the nfl draft. This prevents the owner of 1.6 and 1.9 frpm being able to gauge who will be left and settling for 6 & 9 rather than moving up to 4. Many can attest to the difficulty moving back when they desire to do so.

The obvious scenario of owning the 1.1 is different. There will always be a market for the top pick.

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Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:45 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:40 pm
If you have a 1st round pick in this class, it's going to be very valuable come summer time. This class is very deep. There's going to be value well into the 2nd round.
Guys like Zach Moss or Kylin Hill, who aren't even being talked about yet. Lead back builds and production on 3 downs in college. I agree, this class his deep.
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