Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
-
- All Pro
- Posts: 1733
- Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:01 pm
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
I mean lets list the noteworthy seniors and practically the guarantees to declare:
Seniors:
WRs:
Bryan Edwards
Tyler Johnson
Antonio Gaundy-Golden
Darnell Mooney
RBs:
Zach Moss
Keshawn Vaughn
Of those I think Tyler Johnson and Bryan Edwards are locks for top 14 picks with most likely being 1st rounders.
Guarantee to declare (opinion based:)
WRs:
Jerry Juedy
-His stock is way too high right now not to declare. May not be OBJ, but very-well rounded in most facets of his game (RR, YAC, not a bad blocker).
Ceedee Lamb
- Lamb is lighting it up at Oklahoma and after seeing Brown go in the first I’d be surprised if he didn’t leave. What else does he have to prove at the college level?
Jalen Reagor
-Stuck on a horrific team no way he comes back unless he gets some really bad draft projections come Jan./Feb
KJ Hamler
-Honestly may be the best WR in college football that I haven’t heard one peep about. Isn’t going to win a National Title at PSU and has produced enough that I think he should be graded as a top 1-3 round player.
Leviska Shenault-
Not a huge fan, but Colorado sucks bleep and I’d be surprised if he isn’t a top 4 round pick. Even if he is the next Cordarelle Patterson.
RBs:
Jonathan Taylor-
What more to prove, clear best RB prospect to me. Next
Deandre Swift-
Another early producer that has had enough tread on his tires. Shown out since his first year and could see his stock heavily impacted if he comes back and doesn’t perform at a really high level. Interested in his combine performance tho.
Cam Akers-
Horrible team, great talent. Would make zero sense to go back and risk injury instead of blowing up the combine.
J.K. Dobbins-
See Jonathan Taylor
Chubba Hubbard-
Busted onto the scene after Justice Hill left, looks the part of a 3-down back and after seeing Tylan Wallace have an injury should see its time to go!
AJ Dillon-
Can’t see him boosting his stock much more from what it is at BC. Been an uber performer that even started catching passes between this and last year.
I think he’s going to be an adjusted size/weight freak.
There are a few more that would make sense like Etienne, Kylin Hill, and Eno Benjamin, but I think that either due to playoff contention (Etienne), it being a stacked class (Hill), and just having a bit more to prove (Benjamin) them not declaring.
I think all those players are first round dynasty picks so in no particular order:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault
So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
Seniors:
WRs:
Bryan Edwards
Tyler Johnson
Antonio Gaundy-Golden
Darnell Mooney
RBs:
Zach Moss
Keshawn Vaughn
Of those I think Tyler Johnson and Bryan Edwards are locks for top 14 picks with most likely being 1st rounders.
Guarantee to declare (opinion based:)
WRs:
Jerry Juedy
-His stock is way too high right now not to declare. May not be OBJ, but very-well rounded in most facets of his game (RR, YAC, not a bad blocker).
Ceedee Lamb
- Lamb is lighting it up at Oklahoma and after seeing Brown go in the first I’d be surprised if he didn’t leave. What else does he have to prove at the college level?
Jalen Reagor
-Stuck on a horrific team no way he comes back unless he gets some really bad draft projections come Jan./Feb
KJ Hamler
-Honestly may be the best WR in college football that I haven’t heard one peep about. Isn’t going to win a National Title at PSU and has produced enough that I think he should be graded as a top 1-3 round player.
Leviska Shenault-
Not a huge fan, but Colorado sucks bleep and I’d be surprised if he isn’t a top 4 round pick. Even if he is the next Cordarelle Patterson.
RBs:
Jonathan Taylor-
What more to prove, clear best RB prospect to me. Next
Deandre Swift-
Another early producer that has had enough tread on his tires. Shown out since his first year and could see his stock heavily impacted if he comes back and doesn’t perform at a really high level. Interested in his combine performance tho.
Cam Akers-
Horrible team, great talent. Would make zero sense to go back and risk injury instead of blowing up the combine.
J.K. Dobbins-
See Jonathan Taylor
Chubba Hubbard-
Busted onto the scene after Justice Hill left, looks the part of a 3-down back and after seeing Tylan Wallace have an injury should see its time to go!
AJ Dillon-
Can’t see him boosting his stock much more from what it is at BC. Been an uber performer that even started catching passes between this and last year.
I think he’s going to be an adjusted size/weight freak.
There are a few more that would make sense like Etienne, Kylin Hill, and Eno Benjamin, but I think that either due to playoff contention (Etienne), it being a stacked class (Hill), and just having a bit more to prove (Benjamin) them not declaring.
I think all those players are first round dynasty picks so in no particular order:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault
So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
I may or may not be related to Bryan Edwards
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Even in 2019, one of the perceived weaker classes we've had in a while, the picks continued to appreciate in value through the spring and summer.
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
No Etienne? Ruggs?alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am I think all those players are first round dynasty picks so in no particular order:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault
So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Where's Lache Seastrunk?
- Dynasty DeLorean
- Degenerate
- Posts: 8921
- Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
It depends, I think I had the 1.08 in 2017 and the pick adp wise was John Ross and nobody wanted it. Sometimes the pick value can sort of go down if it’s right after a tier drop.
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Me neither and I sont expect this to happen. BUT if there was ever a year where this might happen it's this year.
Been hearing about this 2020 draft for awhile and it's possible with a bunch of bad combine numbers guys falling etc people may end up being underwhelmed
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Darnold(NYJ)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
I think Etienne could go either way. If he stays he plays with Lawrence and Ross one more year and they all leave together. I think it would make sense for him to leave though.alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault
So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
What has me licking my chops is the fact that in SF/2QB and IDP leagues it just drags out that talent further. I own 5 x 1sts, 3 x 2nds, and 2 x 3rds in a 16 team 2 QB IDP league. I can't wait for the draft to get here.
So add on:
Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Fromm
Eason
Chase Young
AJ Epenesa
Simmons
Moses
Weaver
and you didn't even include Ruggs and Reagor in your 12 up there. Whew!
Edit: I wish Reagor would continue to fly under the radar, but it's not gonna happen. He is going to destroy the combine and it's all going to be over.
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14264
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
If you have a 1st round pick in this class, it's going to be very valuable come summer time. This class is very deep. There's going to be value well into the 2nd round.
- Forza_Azzurri
- Pro Bowler
- Posts: 1274
- Joined: Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:52 am
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
I have a Top 3 #1 & bottom 5 #1 in an IDP ... salivating on the chance to snag Young with my second pick.Lumps wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:45 pmI think Etienne could go either way. If he stays he plays with Lawrence and Ross one more year and they all leave together. I think it would make sense for him to leave though.alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:54 am
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Jerry Juedy
3. Swift
4. Ceedee Lamb
5. Dobbins
6. Chubba Hubbard
7. Cam Akers
8. Bryan Edwards
9. Tyler Johnson
10. KJ Hamler
11. AJ Dillon
12. Leviska Shenault
So I would say drop off is closer to 11/12, but there are still some top flight prospects into the 2nd. Players that probably would have been top 6 picks in 2019.
What has me licking my chops is the fact that in SF/2QB and IDP leagues it just drags out that talent further. I own 5 x 1sts, 3 x 2nds, and 2 x 3rds in a 16 team 2 QB IDP league. I can't wait for the draft to get here.
So add on:
Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Fromm
Eason
Chase Young
AJ Epenesa
Simmons
Moses
Weaver
and you didn't even include Ruggs and Reagor in your 12 up there. Whew!
Edit: I wish Reagor would continue to fly under the radar, but it's not gonna happen. He is going to destroy the combine and it's all going to be over.
As for Etienne, I don't think he has any reason to stay another year. The only hole in his game is as a receiver, but do not think he is likely to become a high priority receiver in an additional year.
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Sorry for my ignorance, but could someone explain to me why Etienne is not considered a quality receiver when he has more catches that Jonathan Taylor, who has become a plus receiver in this current season?
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
2016 immediately comes to mind. I had 1.05 and 1.10 in that class and nobody wanted them. Best offer I got for 1.05 was a projected late 1st the next year. The 1.10 there was zero interest, couldn't even get a future 1st two years away for it. I ended up taking DeVontae Booker with the pick.
But I don't expect the 2020 class to be anything like that. That only happens when the class looks really really poor, which is the opposite of 2020.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
I honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.johnnymozart wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Came to post something similar. From my experiences, the value of 1sts goes down after the nfl draft, not up. The notion that value goes up is driven by hopes and dreams that owners of a stud will give stud for pick 1.8 and that magically 1.8 is worth a stud. You may see it here and there, but it is not the norm. Owners that want to trade quality players for mid 1st will do it reguardless of the time of year and maybe even less so during the draft when they realize player x (the pick) carries an adp of 56 and their player carries an adp of 30. Its delusional to think that owners suddenly ignore rankings.ArrylT wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:46 pmI honestly find that this is the case pretty much every year - it is only if an owner sees a specific player that they want and don't want to risk missing out on that they are willing to pay more than a pittance to move up. It all depends on the owner(s) and the players available OTC imo.johnnymozart wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am This post deals more with the perceived value of the picks. I believe this could turn into a situation where the people with picks 9, 10, and 11 do not care to move up to pick 6, 7 and only would pay to jump into the premium top 5. This is not to imply these picks will not yield great players either... As someone with a desire to always get the most out of an asset-- are mid 2020 1sts already depreciating in value?
What i have found is that the majority of the time...rookies never carry more value than when they are drafted. When pick 8 turns into a player......that player will never reach that adp again. Obviously some players become our future stars....but 70% do not. We can go on and on about rookies ranked in the top 100 that never panned out. We can do the same for top 50 rookies aswell. Trich and doug martin were carrying an adp in startups of 1 & 2 going in to their sophomore yrs.... Never to be relevant again. We dont need to name drop the good and bad, but understand the concept. Maybe this concept is what the previous posters are saying.... picks value goes up when a name is attached. Of course it does. But they also fail to mention that the majority of those players selected will never live up to that adp, and most owners arent taking a huge value drop giving an established player for a rookie. In short.... A mid 1st/late 1st today nets you a better player via trade than when those same picks are assigned a general adp north of 60 in most instances. Owners arent trading player 15 for player 85 in most leagues.
Early 1st are a bit different and typically it depends on the guys comming out. You can and will certainly see more risk taken when giving up top assets for top tier guys. With that said, ive found that once the top tier guys are gone...owners typically settle in and are happy to take who falls to them. If i own a top 5, i will shop it around for a stud right after the season. If nothing pans out and i want to move back.... Gotta get the deal done before the nfl draft. This prevents the owner of 1.6 and 1.9 frpm being able to gauge who will be left and settling for 6 & 9 rather than moving up to 4. Many can attest to the difficulty moving back when they desire to do so.
The obvious scenario of owning the 1.1 is different. There will always be a market for the top pick.
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 27214
- Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am
Re: Value of Mid Firsts in 2020 (Depreciating asset?)
Guys like Zach Moss or Kylin Hill, who aren't even being talked about yet. Lead back builds and production on 3 downs in college. I agree, this class his deep.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:40 pm If you have a 1st round pick in this class, it's going to be very valuable come summer time. This class is very deep. There's going to be value well into the 2nd round.
"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: DrowningInTheDays and 122 guests