Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

[Prison_Mike]

By "fringe RBs" - I mean that their value is somewhat ambiguous at the moment as their future is largely unknown
With the deep 2020 draft coming up and several high end RB prospects, I thought it'd be worthwhile to discuss some of these guys

Do you expect these guys to be starters in 2020 (& beyond)?
What are you doing with these players & who would you add to this list?

- Mark Ingram (29) - Currently RB13 (7 games played) | 566 total yards & 7 TDs | Signed through 2021

- Devonta Freeman (27) - Currently RB15 (8 games played) | 605 total yards & 3 TDs | Signed through 2022
(potential out after this season)

- Tevin Coleman (26) - Currently RB28 (5 games played) | 393 total yards & 5 TDs | Signed through 2020

[Pac_Eddy]

I consider all of them to be valuable in the short term, replaced by younger talent as soon as next year. Wouldn't pay much unless I'm making a playoff run.

Freeman is odd though - not producing much, so I wouldn't even target him for a playoff run this year. Might be a buy-low for next year, but if the Falcons get a new coaching staff, can't rely on him at all.

[bjd5211]

Igram will be servicable for another year

Freeman is done and his value is purely on reputation and name, not actual production.

Coleman is a good player in a great situation, solid RB2 probably for another year at least.

[jenkins.math]

Ingram: I expect him to be useful next season. The Ravens would save just over 2 million against the cap by cutting him, but for that price I think he stays. I'm interested in any RB getting 13+ touches and the goal line work in that rushing offense. If he is in Baltimore with the same role, I expect him to be a solid RB2 with RB1 upside each week.

Freeman: Looks done and I expect changes in Atlanta. They save 3.5 million against the cap if they cut Freeman and I think they will. What better situation could he have next season than the one he is currently in and not exactly thriving?

Coleman: If he is in SF, see my thoughts on Ingram. The problem is that I won't be shocked if he is cut. They can cut Coleman with 0 dead cap and they save 4.9 million against the cap. Not sure what they will do there in SF, but when you have a disposable position like RB, and there isn't any negative repercussions to the salary cap from cutting them they are usually gone.

Interestingly enough, does Freeman get cut and go reunite with Shanny in SF? I wouldn't want any of these guys if they aren't in great situations. Right now, both Ingram and Coleman are in great situations for any RB due to scheme, and Freeman is in a great situation due to a great offense and getting the bulk of the carries. Unless the Falcons are getting blown out, he will see 70+% of the offensive snaps.

As for what I am doing with them (I actually own Ingram), I've flirted with trading Ingram. I've got an offer for a 2020 first (will probably be last at 1.14), but haven't been able to pull the trigger due to I think he will be the same player next year and my build. I do think a late first for Ingram is very fair though. I rank Coleman slightly behind Ingram, so I think he is worth a late first/early 2nd. Freeman I would price at a late 2nd/early 3rd, but I doubt an owner sells for that.

[Prison_Mike]

I consider all of them to be valuable in the short term, replaced by younger talent as soon as next year. Wouldn't pay much unless I'm making a playoff run.

Freeman is odd though - not producing much, so I wouldn't even target him for a playoff run this year. Might be a buy-low for next year, but if the Falcons get a new coaching staff, can't rely on him at all.

Agreed, I think a large part of his fantasy production this season has come from his receptions (the #'s were based on PPR)
I could certainly see them moving on from him - there were reports that ATL & DET were discussing a trade at the deadline but couldn't reach a deal on Freeman

[Prison_Mike]

Coleman: If he is in SF, see my thoughts on Ingram. The problem is that I won't be shocked if he is cut. They can cut Coleman with 0 dead cap and they save 4.9 million against the cap. Not sure what they will do there in SF, but when you have a disposable position like RB, and there isn't any negative repercussions to the salary cap from cutting them they are usually gone.

I'm a big fan of Coleman. He's been super efficient/productive this season just as I'd hoped

But who knows how that backfield will shake out by next year.
Breida is a RFA. Does McKinnon ever play a snap for SF?

[Forza_Azzurri]

Ingram has never had a huge workload. It wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained consistent production into his early 30’s.

[Pac_Eddy]

Ingram has never had a huge workload. It wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained consistent production into his early 30’s.

I agree, but I think the Ravens may have a stab at an elite talent in the draft and won't be able to resist the low salary.

[remedy29]

I disagree on the Ingram and Freeman outlooks. In PPR they are close in points this year (even with Freeman's game ejection). Since week 3, they are tied in Average points per game at around 16 pts. Freeman is currently in one of the worst situations in football, the Falcons are awful.
On the other hand Ingram is in an ideal run heavy team. However, moving forward, I do see Baltimore integrating more RBs into the mix, limiting Ingram's touches.

I'd say they are closely ranked for the next 1.5 seasons.

[Jigga94]

Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special

[djeternal2]

Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special

A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.

[Jigga94]

Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special

A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.

I don't get it. If he plays all 16 this year, then basically he only missed 14 games in 2018 and for fantasy, that was expected anyway. He's been banged up, but what RB isn't?

Lol you make it sound so easy. "We're just going to draft this RB and he will never get hurt!"

[Servo]

I don't think the 9ers' should/could and would keep McKinnon after the money invested and two lost seasons...especially if Coleman plays well the ROS + postseason (from the looks of it). I think that Shanny + Coleman connection is real, let's hope it continues.

Freeman was rumored to be traded by ATL, now is that because they want to rebuild or is it because they don't believe in him anymore? Who knows. At this point, I think I'd rather have the RB on the ascending team.

[djeternal2]

Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special

A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.

I don't get it. If he plays all 16 this year, then basically he only missed 14 games in 2018 and for fantasy, that was expected anyway. He's been banged up, but what RB isn't?

Lol you make it sound so easy. "We're just going to draft this RB and he will never get hurt!"

Go look up his injury history. For RBs especially it's not always just looking at games played/or not played. In 2017 he had 2 concussions (something you can't tell from looking at games played because it was preseason) & sprained his MCL/ACL in the playoffs in 2017 which he played through but again not going to show up in games played/missed because the Falcons had no more games until 2018.

And I never said anything about the rookie never getting hurt. You said "I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him.". I responded to this saying their plan should be to draft a back that doesn't have the injury history Freeman does. Especially since we are looking at what should be a loaded draft at RB this year where you could find his replacement in the 3rd/4th round and use top picks to shore up other areas of need like Def & OL.

[Vcize]

None of the non-elite backs are really safe this offseason.

If you're looking to take a chance on one of them I would choose one that is on a team that doesn't have a lot of mid-round rookie picks.

San Francisco has no picks in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds which are the prime RB selection areas so Coleman may be the safest of this group. Baltimore has basically all of their picks but hasn't really added any. Atlanta has all of their original picks as well as an extra 2nd so they seem like a good candidate to grab a RB.