Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
Prison_Mike
Captain
Captain
Posts: 973
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:57 am

Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Prison_Mike » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:53 am

By "fringe RBs" - I mean that their value is somewhat ambiguous at the moment as their future is largely unknown
With the deep 2020 draft coming up and several high end RB prospects, I thought it'd be worthwhile to discuss some of these guys

Do you expect these guys to be starters in 2020 (& beyond)?
What are you doing with these players & who would you add to this list?

- Mark Ingram (29) - Currently RB13 (7 games played) | 566 total yards & 7 TDs | Signed through 2021

- Devonta Freeman (27) - Currently RB15 (8 games played) | 605 total yards & 3 TDs | Signed through 2022
(potential out after this season)

- Tevin Coleman (26) - Currently RB28 (5 games played) | 393 total yards & 5 TDs | Signed through 2020
Last edited by Prison_Mike on Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Pac_Eddy
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3167
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:09 am

I consider all of them to be valuable in the short term, replaced by younger talent as soon as next year. Wouldn't pay much unless I'm making a playoff run.

Freeman is odd though - not producing much, so I wouldn't even target him for a playoff run this year. Might be a buy-low for next year, but if the Falcons get a new coaching staff, can't rely on him at all.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

bjd5211
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2739
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:10 am

Igram will be servicable for another year

Freeman is done and his value is purely on reputation and name, not actual production.

Coleman is a good player in a great situation, solid RB2 probably for another year at least.

jenkins.math
Captain
Captain
Posts: 775
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby jenkins.math » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:23 am

Ingram: I expect him to be useful next season. The Ravens would save just over 2 million against the cap by cutting him, but for that price I think he stays. I'm interested in any RB getting 13+ touches and the goal line work in that rushing offense. If he is in Baltimore with the same role, I expect him to be a solid RB2 with RB1 upside each week.

Freeman: Looks done and I expect changes in Atlanta. They save 3.5 million against the cap if they cut Freeman and I think they will. What better situation could he have next season than the one he is currently in and not exactly thriving?

Coleman: If he is in SF, see my thoughts on Ingram. The problem is that I won't be shocked if he is cut. They can cut Coleman with 0 dead cap and they save 4.9 million against the cap. Not sure what they will do there in SF, but when you have a disposable position like RB, and there isn't any negative repercussions to the salary cap from cutting them they are usually gone.

Interestingly enough, does Freeman get cut and go reunite with Shanny in SF? I wouldn't want any of these guys if they aren't in great situations. Right now, both Ingram and Coleman are in great situations for any RB due to scheme, and Freeman is in a great situation due to a great offense and getting the bulk of the carries. Unless the Falcons are getting blown out, he will see 70+% of the offensive snaps.

As for what I am doing with them (I actually own Ingram), I've flirted with trading Ingram. I've got an offer for a 2020 first (will probably be last at 1.14), but haven't been able to pull the trigger due to I think he will be the same player next year and my build. I do think a late first for Ingram is very fair though. I rank Coleman slightly behind Ingram, so I think he is worth a late first/early 2nd. Freeman I would price at a late 2nd/early 3rd, but I doubt an owner sells for that.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Littleton
DB: Bell

User avatar
Prison_Mike
Captain
Captain
Posts: 973
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:57 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Prison_Mike » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:29 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:09 am
I consider all of them to be valuable in the short term, replaced by younger talent as soon as next year. Wouldn't pay much unless I'm making a playoff run.

Freeman is odd though - not producing much, so I wouldn't even target him for a playoff run this year. Might be a buy-low for next year, but if the Falcons get a new coaching staff, can't rely on him at all.
Agreed, I think a large part of his fantasy production this season has come from his receptions (the #'s were based on PPR)
I could certainly see them moving on from him - there were reports that ATL & DET were discussing a trade at the deadline but couldn't reach a deal on Freeman

User avatar
Prison_Mike
Captain
Captain
Posts: 973
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:57 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Prison_Mike » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:38 am

Coleman: If he is in SF, see my thoughts on Ingram. The problem is that I won't be shocked if he is cut. They can cut Coleman with 0 dead cap and they save 4.9 million against the cap. Not sure what they will do there in SF, but when you have a disposable position like RB, and there isn't any negative repercussions to the salary cap from cutting them they are usually gone.
I'm a big fan of Coleman. He's been super efficient/productive this season just as I'd hoped

But who knows how that backfield will shake out by next year.
Breida is a RFA. Does McKinnon ever play a snap for SF?

User avatar
Forza_Azzurri
Starter
Starter
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:52 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:37 pm

Ingram has never had a huge workload. It wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained consistent production into his early 30’s.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, , J. Ross, Da. Moore
|TE| J. Hollister, M. Gesicki, K. Rudolph, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| S. Gilmore, M. Peters, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| #1 (x2), #3, #6
|2021 PICKS| #1, #2, #3

User avatar
Pac_Eddy
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3167
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:50 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:37 pm
Ingram has never had a huge workload. It wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained consistent production into his early 30’s.
I agree, but I think the Ravens may have a stab at an elite talent in the draft and won't be able to resist the low salary.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

remedy29
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 349
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 6:33 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby remedy29 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:37 pm

I disagree on the Ingram and Freeman outlooks. In PPR they are close in points this year (even with Freeman's game ejection). Since week 3, they are tied in Average points per game at around 16 pts. Freeman is currently in one of the worst situations in football, the Falcons are awful.
On the other hand Ingram is in an ideal run heavy team. However, moving forward, I do see Baltimore integrating more RBs into the mix, limiting Ingram's touches.

I'd say they are closely ranked for the next 1.5 seasons.
1qb (6pt TD), 2rb, 2wr, 2 flex, k, def
Minshew, Brissett, Cousins, Haskins, Lock, Luck
Chubb, Carson, Lindsay, D. Freeman, Damian Harris
C. Kupp, A. Jeffrey, E. Sanders, Robby Anderson, P. Campbell, Preston Wilson, A. Brown
E. Ebron, Knox, J. Reed
SF, Bills

Jigga94
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6202
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:39 pm

Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

djeternal2
Captain
Captain
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:52 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:42 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:39 pm
Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special
A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, B Hill
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, Kumerow, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Shaheen, Firkser, Conklin

2020 1st - 2, 2020 2nd - 2, 2020 3rd - 0

Jigga94
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6202
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:00 pm

djeternal2 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:42 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:39 pm
Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special
A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.
I don't get it. If he plays all 16 this year, then basically he only missed 14 games in 2018 and for fantasy, that was expected anyway. He's been banged up, but what RB isn't?

Lol you make it sound so easy. "We're just going to draft this RB and he will never get hurt!"
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

User avatar
Servo
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1766
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:17 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Servo » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:11 pm

I don't think the 9ers' should/could and would keep McKinnon after the money invested and two lost seasons...especially if Coleman plays well the ROS + postseason (from the looks of it). I think that Shanny + Coleman connection is real, let's hope it continues.

Freeman was rumored to be traded by ATL, now is that because they want to rebuild or is it because they don't believe in him anymore? Who knows. At this point, I think I'd rather have the RB on the ascending team.
Trucking Through The Fantasy Mud, One Year At a Time.

12-Man, 0.5PPR, Superflex, Start 9
2016 - Runner Up
2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion


Mahomes, Stafford, Mariota, Flacco, Lock
Kerryon, Williams KCC, Hines, Love, Ozigbo, Adams, Barber, Burkhead, Martin, McGuire, Montgomery, Riddick, Wilson Jr.
Allen, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Hopkins, Thielen, Ross, Allison, Hamilton, Lasley
Kelce, Kittle

djeternal2
Captain
Captain
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:52 am

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:25 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:00 pm
djeternal2 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:42 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:39 pm
Freeman gets so much hate. He's still a RB2 this year. If ATL cuts him to save a few million then I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him. Ito and Hill are nothing special
A draft pick that doesn't have the injury history including concussions that Freeman has. That's what the plan should be for ATL.
I don't get it. If he plays all 16 this year, then basically he only missed 14 games in 2018 and for fantasy, that was expected anyway. He's been banged up, but what RB isn't?

Lol you make it sound so easy. "We're just going to draft this RB and he will never get hurt!"
Go look up his injury history. For RBs especially it's not always just looking at games played/or not played. In 2017 he had 2 concussions (something you can't tell from looking at games played because it was preseason) & sprained his MCL/ACL in the playoffs in 2017 which he played through but again not going to show up in games played/missed because the Falcons had no more games until 2018.

And I never said anything about the rookie never getting hurt. You said "I'm not sure what their plan is to replace him.". I responded to this saying their plan should be to draft a back that doesn't have the injury history Freeman does. Especially since we are looking at what should be a loaded draft at RB this year where you could find his replacement in the 3rd/4th round and use top picks to shore up other areas of need like Def & OL.
Last edited by djeternal2 on Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, B Hill
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, Kumerow, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Shaheen, Firkser, Conklin

2020 1st - 2, 2020 2nd - 2, 2020 3rd - 0

User avatar
Vcize
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2836
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Re: Discussion: Outlook of fringe RBs

Postby Vcize » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:16 pm

None of the non-elite backs are really safe this offseason.

If you're looking to take a chance on one of them I would choose one that is on a team that doesn't have a lot of mid-round rookie picks.

San Francisco has no picks in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds which are the prime RB selection areas so Coleman may be the safest of this group. Baltimore has basically all of their picks but hasn't really added any. Atlanta has all of their original picks as well as an extra 2nd so they seem like a good candidate to grab a RB.
Team 1 (12 team FFPC)
QB: Wentz
RB: Cook, A Jones, Mixon, Kerryon, Hunt, Hill, Drake
WR: OBJ, Lockett, ARob, Woods, ARob, Preston
TE: Howard, Cook, Goedert, Njoku, Knox

Team 2 (12 team PPR, q/r/r/w/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], CooperCrush, Google Adsense [Bot], hingle, themburns, whaley88 and 3 guests