AJ Green Remaining Dynasty value

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wvu06
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AJ Green

Postby wvu06 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:20 pm

What is AJ Greens value at this point?

He is 29, still an elite WR. Should have some good season ahead. Is he worth 2 firsts?
12 Team Dynasty with IDPs 0.5ppr Start: 1QB 2RB 2WR 2Flex(RB/WR/TE) 1TE 2DL 2LB 2DB
QB: Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Taylor Heinicke
RB: Alex Collins, Jerick McKinnon, Sony Michel, Jamaal Williams, Chris Thompson
WR: Kenny Golladay, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Chris Godwin, Albert Wilson, Deon Cain, Trey Quinn
TE: Jared Cook, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin,
LB: Demario Davis, Roquan Smith, Vontaze Burfict, Matthew Judon, Shaq Thompson, Anthony Walker, Vontaze Burfict
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Plank
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Re: AJ Green

Postby Plank » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:24 pm

If you try to trade him, he might come and choke you out.
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Cameron Giles
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Re: AJ Green

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:24 pm

I think so. You'll probably get at least 3-4 years of elite production going forward. His value will fade, but it won't matter if you're in the business of winning games.

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dynastyninja
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Re: AJ Green

Postby dynastyninja » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:50 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:24 pm
I think so. You'll probably get at least 3-4 years of elite production going forward. His value will fade, but it won't matter if you're in the business of winning games.
Elite production at 33 will be a little questionable in my mind. I'd put his window at 2-3 years, which is still very valuable.

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flashgordon12
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Re: AJ Green

Postby flashgordon12 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:10 pm

AJ is the kind of receiver that will age well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have 4 more elite seasons... although this is coming from a talent perspective. I think his prospects become much more bleak when you consider how the franchise is very much in danger of entering a full blown rebuild
Flash in the Pan: 12 team PPR (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1DEF) 25 man rosters

QB- Andrew Luck, Josh Allen
RB- MGIII, Mixon, Cohen, Devonta Freeman
WR- AB, Odell Beckham Jr., Josh Gordon, Tyler Boyd, Marqise Lee, Sutton, MVS
TE- Gronk, Higbee
DEF- Denver

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dlf_mikeh
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Re: AJ Green

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:04 pm

Latest ADP data shows him getting drafted ahead of all rookies, but very close to the 1.01. I would expect a decline starting at the end of this year and steadily declining over the next few years. Most WRs peak at 27 and are productive until 32.

Andre Johnson is a guy I like to compare AJG to. Andre had 3 more very productive top 5 seasons after 29 (30, 31, 32).... the season in which he was 30 was injury-shortened. I think AJG will have a similar pattern down the road. Same with Dez.

If I have a winning team right now, I would definitely buy him. If I am middle-of-the-road or worse, I'd be looking to sell. I'd want at least 2 firsts with one of them being early, or a very good prospect and a 1st...... Kamara and a 1st, for example.
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lukkynumber13
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Re: AJ Green

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:31 pm

wvu06 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:20 pm
What is AJ Greens value at this point?

He is 29, still an elite WR. Should have some good season ahead. Is he worth 2 firsts?
Yes easily. Absolutely no reason why he can't be a WR1/2 for 5 more years
TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
BREES, Jimmy G, Haskins, Lock, Keenum
COOK/JACOBS/BELL, Gurley, D Washington, Shady, Gio, Gallman, M Davis, Rodney A
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Hilton, Edelman, Wims, Dez
KITTLE, Waller, Irv, Akins, Graham
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring
GOFF, Darnold, Brissett, Tyrod
SAQUON/MIXON, Gallman, L Miller
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/THIELEN, Hollywood, Edelman, R Anderson, A Tate, Coutee
KITTLE/ENGRAM, Ian Thomas, James O
-
Danielle Hunter, Aaron Donald, and Chris Jones are the cornerstones of my IDP squad. LBs and DBs are rag tag for now.

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Re: AJ Green

Postby DLF_Pierson » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:00 am

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:31 pm
wvu06 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:20 pm
What is AJ Greens value at this point?

He is 29, still an elite WR. Should have some good season ahead. Is he worth 2 firsts?
Yes easily. Absolutely no reason why he can't be a WR1/2 for 5 more years
x2
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KCLep20
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Re: AJ Green

Postby KCLep20 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:44 am

I think AJ will age well, his game isn't dominated on overpowering (Calvin/Julio) it is more about finess and speed which will last longer when you don't have a long injury history. I can see him staying in the top 5 WR convo for the next 3-4 years and be serviceable WR2 until he's 35'ish.

I have more worries about Julio as we've already seen Dez fall off due to injuries, and every week Julio appears to hurt something else. We saw the toll it took on Calvin, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing happen to Julio unfortunately.
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex(RB/WR/TE)
12 team PPR with 11 Keepers/year
QB: M.Ryan, M.Stafford
RB: Gurley, J.Mixon, J.Conner, N.Chubb, Gio, M.Brown
WR: Julio, S.Diggs, AJG, DJ Clark, DK Metcalf, P.Williams
TE: M. Andrews, OJ Howard

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Re: AJ Green

Postby 1coldone » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:04 am

WWE World Champion...lol.

He still WR1 and rarley will anyone get true value out of an aging player (even if they are still producing "1" numbers). If I had him, I would probably just hold, but was not willing to pay what it would take to aquire him in players and draft picks (other owners want).
12 Teams, 1 PPR, 4 pt Passing TDs, Passing yards .04 point every 1, rush/receiving yards .1 point every 1, 6 pt receiving/rushing TD, Line up qb/rb/wr/te/k/d and any 2 te/wr/rb
20 roster spots/8 STARTERS
Team 1
1 QB Prescott/Allen
1-3 RB Zeke/ Kamara/ Penny/Ito Smith/J Samuels/Singletary/Armstead/Henderson/Pollard/Thompson
1-3 WR Crowder/Foster/Woods/Fuller/C Samuel/MVS
1-2 TE Rudolph/Burton/I Thomas
1 K Zuerlein
1 DEF Panthers
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Team 2
1 QB Big Ben/L Jackson
1-3 RB Bell/Drake/Cohen/Henderson/Singetary/Thompson
1-3 WR Adams/ARob/Hill/DJ Moore/Shepard/Godwin/C Samuel/Z Jones
1-2 TE Burton/I Thomas
1 K Maher
1 DEF Panthers
2020 Picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd
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1 QB Allen/Newton
1-3 RB Bernard/Edmonds/Henry/Hunt/DJ/Sanders
1-3 WR Hamilton/TY/Hurd/McLaurin/Samuel/Shepard/Westbrook, Dede
1-2 TE Kelce/Thomas/Warring
1 K Badgley
1 DEF Saints
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npainter
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Re: AJ Green

Postby npainter » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:25 am

I think he still has a couple years of elite to good production ahead of him. That being said I traded him before this week for Foreman and 2 mid 1sts in the league where losing Rodgers and DJ left me out of contention.

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lukkynumber13
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Re: AJ Green

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:27 am

KCLep20 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:44 am
I think AJ will age well, his game isn't dominated on overpowering (Calvin/Julio) it is more about finess and speed which will last longer when you don't have a long injury history. I can see him staying in the top 5 WR convo for the next 3-4 years and be serviceable WR2 until he's 35'ish.

I have more worries about Julio as we've already seen Dez fall off due to injuries, and every week Julio appears to hurt something else. We saw the toll it took on Calvin, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing happen to Julio unfortunately.
Not sure I agree with your overall statement, that speed ages well and physicality doesn't.

Route running and the ability to body up on defenders is how aging WRs stay good.
TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
BREES, Jimmy G, Haskins, Lock, Keenum
COOK/JACOBS/BELL, Gurley, D Washington, Shady, Gio, Gallman, M Davis, Rodney A
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Hilton, Edelman, Wims, Dez
KITTLE, Waller, Irv, Akins, Graham
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring
GOFF, Darnold, Brissett, Tyrod
SAQUON/MIXON, Gallman, L Miller
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/THIELEN, Hollywood, Edelman, R Anderson, A Tate, Coutee
KITTLE/ENGRAM, Ian Thomas, James O
-
Danielle Hunter, Aaron Donald, and Chris Jones are the cornerstones of my IDP squad. LBs and DBs are rag tag for now.

wildabeast49
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Re: AJ Green

Postby wildabeast49 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:53 am

I don't think its reasonable at all to say you expect high level production in an age 34 season for anyone that isn't a qb. I think he's worth 2 firsts, but for 3 years or so when the statistics say the drop off comes in a big way. Saying he'll beat age for several years beyond the average is a random, uneducated guess because those who don't are the huge outliers. The whole point of outliers being that they buck heavy trends and can't be safely predicted. He certainly might, but it's foolish to expect it.
10 team, .5 ppr dynasty
QB: Brady, Wilson
RB: Fournette, cook, mixon, Ajayi, Gordon, Ware, Joe Williams, Hunt, Martin
WR: Evans, TY, Dez, Sammy, Coleman, Diggs, Ross, White, Fitz
TE: Watson, Eifert, Bennet

PPR 12 team superflex, limited devy (1 per year) heavy return yardage
Cousins, Rivers, Kizer
Fournette, Zeke, Mixon, mcCaffrey, Joe Williams, Mcnichols, Mack, Martin
Cooper, Evans, Watkins, Coleman, Diggs, Martavis, Chad Williams, Parker
Henry, Rudolph, Hodges

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dynastyninja
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Re: AJ Green

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:49 am

pierson242 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:00 am
lukkynumber13 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:31 pm
wvu06 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:20 pm
What is AJ Greens value at this point?

He is 29, still an elite WR. Should have some good season ahead. Is he worth 2 firsts?
Yes easily. Absolutely no reason why he can't be a WR1/2 for 5 more years
x2
No reason to be that confident in anyone being a WR1/2 at 34 years old. Players can drop off at any time.

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Re: AJ Green

Postby KCLep20 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:35 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:27 am
KCLep20 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:44 am
I think AJ will age well, his game isn't dominated on overpowering (Calvin/Julio) it is more about finess and speed which will last longer when you don't have a long injury history. I can see him staying in the top 5 WR convo for the next 3-4 years and be serviceable WR2 until he's 35'ish.

I have more worries about Julio as we've already seen Dez fall off due to injuries, and every week Julio appears to hurt something else. We saw the toll it took on Calvin, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing happen to Julio unfortunately.
Not sure I agree with your overall statement, that speed ages well and physicality doesn't.

Route running and the ability to body up on defenders is how aging WRs stay good.
I was more saying because he has long speed, as opposed to short-burst speed, i think it won't erode as quickly. everyone loses speed as they age, but there are different types. it's that quick twitch that seems to go before the long-speed does.
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex(RB/WR/TE)
12 team PPR with 11 Keepers/year
QB: M.Ryan, M.Stafford
RB: Gurley, J.Mixon, J.Conner, N.Chubb, Gio, M.Brown
WR: Julio, S.Diggs, AJG, DJ Clark, DK Metcalf, P.Williams
TE: M. Andrews, OJ Howard


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