TE delusion

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saw061600
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TE delusion

Postby saw061600 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:51 am

Based on some recent trade offers, rejections of both offers made by me and to me, I believe many owners of some popular rookies and "soon to break out" players are functioning in a state of delusion. There seems a strong belief that "any day now, TE X is going to break out and be a stud." History isn't with you and contenders are hamstringing themselves.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Lamar Winston TruB Finley Mariota
Bell Chubb DFreeman Sony DMonty RFreeman RoJo Gio Hines Snell
Evans Cooper ARob Boyd Watkins Agholor NHarry MWill JJAW Isabella Keke AMiller
Kelce Andrews Jimmy Jonnu
Watt Ansah Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Davis Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones DLee Compton
Adams Vaccaro Joseph Iloka McLeod Williams

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Dak Rivers Dalton Rudolph
Mixon DHenry Penny Shady Duke Ekeler Snell Armstead
Julio Cooks Cooper ARob DK Isabella Stills KeeSean Agholor Callaway
Kelce Andrews
Hunter Barnett Clark Burns
Williamson Warner Perryman Milano Campbell Baker ShaqT Jewell Kendricks
Budda JJohnson Thornhill Vaccaro

12TM .5PPR 45RST
Wilson Rivers Dalton
Freeman Henry AP JHow Ajayi Nyheim Ito Justice Snell Barnes Tvon
Cooks Amari ARob Landry Watkins Keke Samuel JJAW Isabella
Ertz Andrews Herndon
NBosa Garrett Barnett Clark Leo
Perryman Lee JBrown Milano Wright Baker Tavai Burks
Jones Geathers SWill Abram

bjd5211
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Re: TE delusion

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:00 am

TE is typically the position that takes longest to develop and break out, so why wouldn't they hold young guys at that position they believe in?

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Prison_Mike
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Re: TE delusion

Postby Prison_Mike » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:21 am

Could you be more specific about the players you think owners are being delusional about?

For example:
- I would agree if owners stubbornly waiting on someone like Trey Burton to be a top-3 TE while you're just trying to add him for depth
- But if someone is holding Gerald Everett, why would an owner want to reset the clock on a position that notoriously takes a long time to develop?

I inquired about Everett this year and was told anything he'd get for him right now wouldn't be worth it because of Everett's potential.
So I see where you're coming from but it depends on the expectations of specific players

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saw061600
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Re: TE delusion

Postby saw061600 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:31 am

Prison_Mike wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:21 am
Could you be more specific about the players you think owners are being delusional about?

For example:
- I would agree if owners stubbornly waiting on someone like Trey Burton to be a top-3 TE while you're just trying to add him for depth
- But if someone is holding Gerald Everett, why would an owner want to reset the clock on a position that notoriously takes a long time to develop?

I inquired about Everett this year and was told anything he'd get for him right now wouldn't be worth it because of Everett's potential.
So I see where you're coming from but it depends on the expectations of specific players
Could use Kelce as an example. Receiving offers of "Hockenson" or a 2nd "because he's old" in leagues I'm a contender.
Totally different for a rebuild, not speaking about those owners but only win now or in contention teams. I would't want Kelce on rebuild unless I could flip; I'd rather take my chance on a young hope to be stud.

I believe the hype of the young guys has created a belief that the position is flat; a belief that isn't supported by history or current production.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Lamar Winston TruB Finley Mariota
Bell Chubb DFreeman Sony DMonty RFreeman RoJo Gio Hines Snell
Evans Cooper ARob Boyd Watkins Agholor NHarry MWill JJAW Isabella Keke AMiller
Kelce Andrews Jimmy Jonnu
Watt Ansah Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Davis Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones DLee Compton
Adams Vaccaro Joseph Iloka McLeod Williams

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Dak Rivers Dalton Rudolph
Mixon DHenry Penny Shady Duke Ekeler Snell Armstead
Julio Cooks Cooper ARob DK Isabella Stills KeeSean Agholor Callaway
Kelce Andrews
Hunter Barnett Clark Burns
Williamson Warner Perryman Milano Campbell Baker ShaqT Jewell Kendricks
Budda JJohnson Thornhill Vaccaro

12TM .5PPR 45RST
Wilson Rivers Dalton
Freeman Henry AP JHow Ajayi Nyheim Ito Justice Snell Barnes Tvon
Cooks Amari ARob Landry Watkins Keke Samuel JJAW Isabella
Ertz Andrews Herndon
NBosa Garrett Barnett Clark Leo
Perryman Lee JBrown Milano Wright Baker Tavai Burks
Jones Geathers SWill Abram

Jigga94
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Re: TE delusion

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:32 am

Would be good to use some examples. TE is very hit or miss and we all know that in fantasy, everyone values their own players more than others.

I personally held onto and bought low on Henry because I knew he had the talent and that's paid off well. Others tried to buy low on me and I wasn't doing it.

Guys like Howard (possibly Ebron for some) are similar, I can't blame an owner for holding there either bc we've seen the production before.

Someone like Jonnu or Goedert also seems like a bit of a strong hold right now as he is finally getting some opportunity. So good luck buying there as well...

People like Burton, Rudolph, Cook, Delanie shouldn't be valued high and if owners are still holding hope there I'm not sure what to tell them.

If you're complaining about owners valuing Andrews or Hooper too high now... Lol that ship has sailed
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: TE delusion

Postby Prison_Mike » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:50 am

saw061600 wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:31 am
Prison_Mike wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:21 am
Could you be more specific about the players you think owners are being delusional about?

For example:
- I would agree if owners stubbornly waiting on someone like Trey Burton to be a top-3 TE while you're just trying to add him for depth
- But if someone is holding Gerald Everett, why would an owner want to reset the clock on a position that notoriously takes a long time to develop?

I inquired about Everett this year and was told anything he'd get for him right now wouldn't be worth it because of Everett's potential.
So I see where you're coming from but it depends on the expectations of specific players
Could use Kelce as an example. Receiving offers of "Hockenson" or a 2nd "because he's old" in leagues I'm a contender.
Totally different for a rebuild, not speaking about those owners but only win now or in contention teams. I would't want Kelce on rebuild unless I could flip; I'd rather take my chance on a young hope to be stud.

I believe the hype of the young guys has created a belief that the position is flat; a belief that isn't supported by history or current production.
First of all, I was looking at it solely from the perspective of you BUYING, not selling - my mistake!
Secondly - if owners are sending you an offer of a 2nd for Kelce, that is both delusional and insulting lol

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Re: TE delusion

Postby CGW » Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:01 am

TE is one of the areas where I stash several unproven young prospects. Due to the scarcity, when you hit you get a huge positional advantage. Why would I trade Andrews, Herndon, Hockenson, Thomas, etc for a random dart throw? I'll hang onto them while everyone else is giving up after one year and selling for pennies on the dollar.
12 Team | Superflex | PPR | 6pt passing TD
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold
RB | Gurley, Mixon, Henderson, Barber, R. Freeman, Singletary, Ballage, D. Thompson, Gaskin
WR | Adams, Evans, Harry, Washington, D. Johnson, Conley, Slayton, Amendola, A. Miller
TE | Herndon, Andrews, Everett, Sternberger, Moreau

10 Team | Superflex | PPR
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Rodgers, Murray, Foles, Minshew
RB | Chubb, Montgomery, Guice, Singletary, Ballage, Edmonds, Murray, R. Jones, D. Thompson
WR | Cooks, Golladay, Godwin, Kirk, M. Brown, Arcega-Whiteside, Renfrow, Slayton, Reynolds
TE | Henry, Herndon, Andrews, Everett

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Re: TE delusion

Postby Mephistopheles » Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:14 am

saw061600 wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:51 am
Based on some recent trade offers, rejections of both offers made by me and to me, I believe many owners of some popular rookies and "soon to break out" players are functioning in a state of delusion. There seems a strong belief that "any day now, TE X is going to break out and be a stud." History isn't with you and contenders are hamstringing themselves.
90% of dynasty FF team owners are functioning in a state of delusion in general regarding trades. Not just on TE's.
Some of these idiots, I wonder how they dress themselves in the morning.
PSA - Haggling is NOT the same as negotiating.

From the home office in Grand Rapids, MI, the Top 5 signs you suck as a trade partner (and probably as a human being)

5. You can name or fabricate 5 risks on every player not on your team.
4. You always respond that you don't value another team's players as highly as they do.
3. You steer conversations away from ADP or any other form of consensus or rankings to gauge trade value.
2. Your trade strategy centers around seeing where someone's at on a player or that "it's just a first offer".
1. Your trade offers are rejected without counter or outright ignored.
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saw061600
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Re: TE delusion

Postby saw061600 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:34 pm

Here's another, from one top contender to my 2nd place team.
Give: Kelce, ARob, McCoy
Get: RAnderson, DThomas, Cohen, Josh Oliver, a 3rd.

WTF would I do that for.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Lamar Winston TruB Finley Mariota
Bell Chubb DFreeman Sony DMonty RFreeman RoJo Gio Hines Snell
Evans Cooper ARob Boyd Watkins Agholor NHarry MWill JJAW Isabella Keke AMiller
Kelce Andrews Jimmy Jonnu
Watt Ansah Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Davis Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones DLee Compton
Adams Vaccaro Joseph Iloka McLeod Williams

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Dak Rivers Dalton Rudolph
Mixon DHenry Penny Shady Duke Ekeler Snell Armstead
Julio Cooks Cooper ARob DK Isabella Stills KeeSean Agholor Callaway
Kelce Andrews
Hunter Barnett Clark Burns
Williamson Warner Perryman Milano Campbell Baker ShaqT Jewell Kendricks
Budda JJohnson Thornhill Vaccaro

12TM .5PPR 45RST
Wilson Rivers Dalton
Freeman Henry AP JHow Ajayi Nyheim Ito Justice Snell Barnes Tvon
Cooks Amari ARob Landry Watkins Keke Samuel JJAW Isabella
Ertz Andrews Herndon
NBosa Garrett Barnett Clark Leo
Perryman Lee JBrown Milano Wright Baker Tavai Burks
Jones Geathers SWill Abram

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Re: TE delusion

Postby Prison_Mike » Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:41 pm

lol I think you just have bad league mates man

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Re: TE delusion

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:46 pm

At the same time.. reliable TE production is a barren wasteland so I can't blame owners for holding onto those guys.

TEs historically take a long time to break out.

That said - most owners seek out trades in which they are the clear winner rather than balancing the offer.
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

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Re: TE delusion

Postby ArrylT » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:26 pm

TE Production is difficult to achieve because

(a) like many have already mention - TE can be a slow developing position

(b) can be quite team situation / game script dependant

(c) to be elite TE in any given year you need several circumstances that usually include lack of a #1 WR target hog, and/or a high volume of targets yourself and/or a heavy passing attack &/or of course efficiency.

Take Zach Ertz for example - for all the disappointment, he is still TE7 on the year in typical ppr formats. But TE7 is about half of what his production as TE1 was at this time last year. The addition of Sanders & DJax plus the development of Goedert means a lot of the targets he saw last year are going elsewhere even if he is still leading the team in targets.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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saw061600
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Re: TE delusion

Postby saw061600 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:28 pm

Phaded wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:46 pm
At the same time.. reliable TE production is a barren wasteland so I can't blame owners for holding onto those guys.

TEs historically take a long time to break out.

That said - most owners seek out trades in which they are the clear winner rather than balancing the offer.
I'm inclined to believe this and maybe it's not just TE. With many owners, those that damn near never trade, I have to be way ahead on a trade so that it LOOKS like the other owner has one big time. Funny thing is though, some of my best trades (like when I got Mike Evans for Stafford) have been proposed to ME by those same "win every trade" owners.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Lamar Winston TruB Finley Mariota
Bell Chubb DFreeman Sony DMonty RFreeman RoJo Gio Hines Snell
Evans Cooper ARob Boyd Watkins Agholor NHarry MWill JJAW Isabella Keke AMiller
Kelce Andrews Jimmy Jonnu
Watt Ansah Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Davis Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones DLee Compton
Adams Vaccaro Joseph Iloka McLeod Williams

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Dak Rivers Dalton Rudolph
Mixon DHenry Penny Shady Duke Ekeler Snell Armstead
Julio Cooks Cooper ARob DK Isabella Stills KeeSean Agholor Callaway
Kelce Andrews
Hunter Barnett Clark Burns
Williamson Warner Perryman Milano Campbell Baker ShaqT Jewell Kendricks
Budda JJohnson Thornhill Vaccaro

12TM .5PPR 45RST
Wilson Rivers Dalton
Freeman Henry AP JHow Ajayi Nyheim Ito Justice Snell Barnes Tvon
Cooks Amari ARob Landry Watkins Keke Samuel JJAW Isabella
Ertz Andrews Herndon
NBosa Garrett Barnett Clark Leo
Perryman Lee JBrown Milano Wright Baker Tavai Burks
Jones Geathers SWill Abram

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Re: TE delusion

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:32 pm

saw061600 wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:34 pm
Here's another, from one top contender to my 2nd place team.
Give: Kelce, ARob, McCoy
Get: RAnderson, DThomas, Cohen, Josh Oliver, a 3rd.

WTF would I do that for.
I hate this type of mentality in offers ... there's one valuable piece in that trade and the rest is garbage. But some people think you can just keep adding garbage to balance the equations. That's why I rarely do trade with multiple pieces; it's too hard for the parties to figure out the real value of what each side is giving up.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, , J. Ross, Da. Moore
|TE| J. Hollister, M. Gesicki, K. Rudolph, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| S. Gilmore, M. Peters, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| #1 (x2), #3, #6
|2021 PICKS| #1, #2, #3

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saw061600
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Re: TE delusion

Postby saw061600 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:35 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:32 pm
saw061600 wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:34 pm
Here's another, from one top contender to my 2nd place team.
Give: Kelce, ARob, McCoy
Get: RAnderson, DThomas, Cohen, Josh Oliver, a 3rd.

WTF would I do that for.
I hate this type of mentality in offers ... there's one valuable piece in that trade and the rest is garbage. But some people think you can just keep adding garbage to balance the equations. That's why I rarely do trade with multiple pieces; it's too hard for the parties to figure out the real value of what each side is giving up.
It gets better. I was told "I feel like I'm overpaying" and "you get a young promising TE and a #3 WR with Anderson and Thomas".
A #3????? I've Cooper, Julio, Robinson, and DK and we can start 5 WR (I'm likely starting 2 RB, 2TE, 4WR from here out)
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Lamar Winston TruB Finley Mariota
Bell Chubb DFreeman Sony DMonty RFreeman RoJo Gio Hines Snell
Evans Cooper ARob Boyd Watkins Agholor NHarry MWill JJAW Isabella Keke AMiller
Kelce Andrews Jimmy Jonnu
Watt Ansah Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Davis Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones DLee Compton
Adams Vaccaro Joseph Iloka McLeod Williams

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Dak Rivers Dalton Rudolph
Mixon DHenry Penny Shady Duke Ekeler Snell Armstead
Julio Cooks Cooper ARob DK Isabella Stills KeeSean Agholor Callaway
Kelce Andrews
Hunter Barnett Clark Burns
Williamson Warner Perryman Milano Campbell Baker ShaqT Jewell Kendricks
Budda JJohnson Thornhill Vaccaro

12TM .5PPR 45RST
Wilson Rivers Dalton
Freeman Henry AP JHow Ajayi Nyheim Ito Justice Snell Barnes Tvon
Cooks Amari ARob Landry Watkins Keke Samuel JJAW Isabella
Ertz Andrews Herndon
NBosa Garrett Barnett Clark Leo
Perryman Lee JBrown Milano Wright Baker Tavai Burks
Jones Geathers SWill Abram


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