AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
bjd5211
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:52 pm

hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
DK is talent AND situation. To categorize 3 fantasy points over 11 as "outperforming" is pretty ridiculous, it's just variance that could go one way or the other.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby hoos89 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:54 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:52 pm
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
DK is talent AND situation. To categorize 3 fantasy points over 11 as "outperforming" is pretty ridiculous, it's just variance that could go one way or the other.
Fine, he's performing the same in spite of a worse situation. Which to me signals greater upside. I think he's the more complete WR.
Ice wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:33 pm
hoos89 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:47 pm I tried floating McLaurin for AJB when he was hurt but no dice. Unfortunately I traded him for a '21 1st in that league last offseason...but fortunately I used the pick on Jefferson so I'm not feeling too down about it.
You could try Trading Jefferson away to get him.
With all the Jefferson love you may even get a pick back.
Maybe, but I know the AJB owner likes him a lot. I'm ultimately fine hanging onto Jefferson since I have AJB in my other league and I like to keep the rosters on my two teams somewhat diverse.
Last edited by hoos89 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:56 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:52 pm
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
DK is talent AND situation. To categorize 3 fantasy points over 11 as "outperforming" is pretty ridiculous, it's just variance that could go one way or the other.
That's to his point though. If AJB is performing similarly in a lesser situation, that should be viewed as a good thing. Sure maybe in the long run the situation for DK will help him produce more, but AJB seems pretty darn elite as well. I wouldn't add a thing to AJB to get DK

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby mild » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:57 pm

Really lovely breakdown video here of everything AJB has been working on in his second year as a pro, and how some of the nuances in his route running are evolving.

Short version... he's a beast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BOENKZ ... e=youtu.be
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:54 pm Fine, he's performing the same in spite of a worse situation. Which to me signals greater upside. I think he's the more complete WR.
He was the better WR in college too... by like... a LOT.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:23 pm

CGW wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:40 pm
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:10 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:07 pm

Wow! That's 3 whole points (if you round up).
My point is that DK Metcalf is widely considered to be more valuable but AJB is actually (slightly) outperforming him since missing 2 games and change with an injury, in spite of what is broadly considered to be a materially worse situation.

Metcalf seems to be the consensus dynasty WR1 right now, but AJB is rarely even listed as the WR2. Either AJB is underrated or Metcalf is overrated.
While I agree with you that AJB is in the discussion, fantasy value isn't always about what happened this season. Some haven't bought in to the future of Tannehill yet like they have with Wilson.
At this point there is no reason to be significantly doubting Tannehill

Last year he had a pretty good defense--not to mention Henry--to take off a ton or pressure

This year there's just Henry. Obviously he isn't better than Wilson but he is actually a big part of why they are winning games--they'd be nowhere close to the playoffs with that defense if Mariota--or even a league average starting QB--was the Titans QB

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby hoos89 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:34 pm

Yeah I think Henry's breakout last year more or less coincided with Tannehill taking over.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby hoos89 » Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:00 pm

Very impressive catch today to set up the division-winning FG. Absolutely belongs in the overall WR1 conversation.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:18 am

hoos89 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:00 pm Very impressive catch today to set up the division-winning FG. Absolutely belongs in the overall WR1 conversation.
Imo its between him, dk and Jefferson. I know adams is the best short term but the age difference is a thing

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:00 am

Davante Adams is probably the short term WR1. He's a talented guy who's amplified by playing with Aaron Rodgers. I would love to see AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, or Justin Jefferson play with Rodgers. I think those three might have slightly BETTER numbers than Adams does.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Vcize » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:44 am

hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
I generally agree with this premise. With two comparably scoring players I will typically prefer the one that has performed with a smaller volume passing pie because both numbers are likely to regress towards each other. Namely if one guy puts up 1200/10 on a 3500/20 passing offense I'd rather have that than a guy that puts up 1200/10 on a 5000/45 passing offense because as those passing offenses regress towards each other, you'd expect the guy who did the same with less to benefit.

However this is a bit of a unique case. It's not that Seattle's passing offense wildly outperformed Tennessee's this year. They were actually fairly similar. Seattle had an extra 390 yards and 7 TDs or so. The difference in this case is that people are expecting Wilson to be able to maintain good passing volume going forward whereas Tannehill is more iffy. So it's not like we're talking about a difference of elite #1 passing offense vs. bottom 3 passing offense. We're talking about two very similar passing offenses this year where one is viewed as much more likely to remain an elite passing offense than the other.
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TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Vcize » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:54 am

Jigga94 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:56 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:52 pm
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
DK is talent AND situation. To categorize 3 fantasy points over 11 as "outperforming" is pretty ridiculous, it's just variance that could go one way or the other.
That's to his point though. If AJB is performing similarly in a lesser situation, that should be viewed as a good thing. Sure maybe in the long run the situation for DK will help him produce more, but AJB seems pretty darn elite as well. I wouldn't add a thing to AJB to get DK
Right but this would be more apt if we were looking at something like AJB playing this year on Denver while DK played on Green Bay and they put up similar numbers. Because you'd expect GB's passing numbers to regress and Denver's to improve so if they were putting up similar numbers pre-regression then you'd expect AJB to take the lead once those balance out.

But in this case Tenn and Sea put up fairly similar passing numbers this year. People just view Russ/Seattle as more stable and likely to maintain those numbers going forward than Tanny/Tennessee.
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:05 pm

Vcize wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:54 am
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:56 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:52 pm

DK is talent AND situation. To categorize 3 fantasy points over 11 as "outperforming" is pretty ridiculous, it's just variance that could go one way or the other.
That's to his point though. If AJB is performing similarly in a lesser situation, that should be viewed as a good thing. Sure maybe in the long run the situation for DK will help him produce more, but AJB seems pretty darn elite as well. I wouldn't add a thing to AJB to get DK
Right but this would be more apt if we were looking at something like AJB playing this year on Denver while DK played on Green Bay and they put up similar numbers. Because you'd expect GB's passing numbers to regress and Denver's to improve so if they were putting up similar numbers pre-regression then you'd expect AJB to take the lead once those balance out.

But in this case Tenn and Sea put up fairly similar passing numbers this year. People just view Russ/Seattle as more stable and likely to maintain those numbers going forward than Tanny/Tennessee.
I currently have DK and AJB in the same tier, with DK a smidge higher because I don't trust TEN's defense to be this bad again which will throttle his volume; however Tyler Lockett is going to be sapping targets for at least a few more years in SEA while I strongly suspect Corey Davis will leave in FA this off-season. AJB's ceiling isn't the 26 ppg Davante averaged this year, but he could match Tyreek Hill's 22ppg without Davis on the roster.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby hoos89 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:11 pm

Vcize wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:44 am
hoos89 wrote: Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:23 pm AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?
I generally agree with this premise. With two comparably scoring players I will typically prefer the one that has performed with a smaller volume passing pie because both numbers are likely to regress towards each other. Namely if one guy puts up 1200/10 on a 3500/20 passing offense I'd rather have that than a guy that puts up 1200/10 on a 5000/45 passing offense because as those passing offenses regress towards each other, you'd expect the guy who did the same with less to benefit.

However this is a bit of a unique case. It's not that Seattle's passing offense wildly outperformed Tennessee's this year. They were actually fairly similar. Seattle had an extra 390 yards and 7 TDs or so. The difference in this case is that people are expecting Wilson to be able to maintain good passing volume going forward whereas Tannehill is more iffy. So it's not like we're talking about a difference of elite #1 passing offense vs. bottom 3 passing offense. We're talking about two very similar passing offenses this year where one is viewed as much more likely to remain an elite passing offense than the other.
They also kind of trended in opposite directions later in the season. Metcalf was averaging a TD per game for half the season and then only caught 1 TD in the final 6 games. AJB actually finished with more TDs in 2 fewer games. AJB ended up at 17.25 points per game for the season vs. 16.96 for DKM.

And the main thing I'm getting at is volume, not actual production. Wilson had 558 attempts this season versus only 481 for Tannehill, and AJB ended up outperforming Metcalf in terms of PPG by ~2% in spite of receiving ~0.5 fewer targets per game, meaning he was ~8% more productive per target in spite of having a QB everyone says is worse (meaning you'd expect the targets to be less valuable on average).
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Ice » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:43 pm

At some point we have to stop claiming AJ Brown is in a bad situation. Quite the contrary, safeties are crashing the gaps to try and stop the run and he benefits big time from play action.

He is averaging 7.6 targets per game and does a lot with them.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Yarnith » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:38 pm

Ice wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:43 pm At some point we have to stop claiming AJ Brown is in a bad situation. Quite the contrary, safeties are crashing the gaps to try and stop the run and he benefits big time from play action.

He is averaging 7.6 targets per game and does a lot with them.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php
This, I recently bought AJ Brown because of the Titans run game. I think it makes his production regression proof. He's to big to man cover with most corners and to fast for most safeties. Add in the Safety is constantly trying to help run defend and this RAC beast just eats. Perfect player in that spot on that offense and was well worth Zeke and my 2nd.
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