2019 Week 7

[Mike from Canada]

If extended injury...Mariota to KC?????
Also, hoping he's not seriously injured but just wondering what a team projected to finish near top does now.

What would Mariota do in KC? Sell insurance? Drive an Uber? Certainly not play QB for a professional football team.

You should see some of the other names floated on Twitter

Jay Cutler!

[Servo]

I mean, there's plenty of season left but Williams being a massive disappointment for his ADP/rise is pretty clear as of Week 7.

And yes, Sutton is good.

[esloan35]

Go get Rosen and save that poor dude! Let him drive a Ferrari for a few weeks instead the Hyundai he is currently stuck with.

[Blueboy]

Go get Rosen and save that poor dude! Let him drive a Ferrari for a few weeks instead the Hyundai he is currently stuck with.

You're doing Hyundai a disservice. Rosen's current vehicle doesn't have a functional engine, and he's being forced to ride passenger-side.

[MEuRaH]

I usually agree with your opinions, but I gotta add something to your original point. McCoy has 5.4 YPC on 60 carries. Damien Williams has 1.7 YPC on 41 carries. They are running behind the same line.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

This remains the best tool for assessing the run game, at least statistically.

Statistically, the only lines run blocking worse than KC are the Jets and Bengals. 25th in stuffed percentage as well.

McCoy's been able to pop some longer runs as he's a better early down back between the tackles, but they're not running the ball because the line is getting beat consistently. Even then, KC is 31st in second level yards. They've just been fortunate to get some large open field runs.

Otherwise, it's odd that a team who's 5-2, with a +7.5 point differential is 26th in rushing attempts with one of the most positive scripts in football. Williams hasn't played well, but it's largely because the line is not playing well. A big part of his success last year was the yards before contact. That's not there this season.

I love your response and it made me do some more research. I understand your criticism of the offensive line. I assume that you believe McCoy has a higher average behind the same line mostly because of longer rushing plays? That's how I read it, tell me if I'm wrong.

Maybe you don't disagree with the following, but I don't believe that the "yards before contact" issue relies solely on the offensive line. I think the RB actually has more to do with YBC than the line does. A great example is a piece I did comparing Lindsay vs Freeman in Denver. Lindsay's YBC was significantly higher than Freeman's (in 2018). They have the same line, but Lindsay knows how to manipulate a defense and use proper techniques to allow plays to unfold so blocks can get setup properly.

Anyway, I love the following stats. One can use stats to tell anything you want, so I'll just post them and anyone reading this can draw their own conclusions. Percents rounded to nearest whole number:

Williams: 0 carries over 6 yards (0%)
McCoy: 13 carries over 6 yards (22%)

Williams: 1st & 10 -- 18 carries 45 yards 2.5 ave
McCoy: 1st & 10 -- 34 carries 226 yards 6.6 ave

Williams:

Code: Select all

     	Att	Yds	Y/A
1st Qtr	8	21	2.6
2nd Qtr	7	7	1.0
3rd Qtr	12	18	1.5
4th Qtr	14	24	1.7

McCoy:

Code: Select all

      	Att	Yds	Y/A
1st Qtr	14	84	6.0
2nd Qtr	15	76	5.1
3rd Qtr	14	63	4.5
4th Qtr	17	99	5.8

[DLF3000]

So Williams was never a great rusher and is worse this year, KC's oline is worse than last year, and now Mahomes is out for at least 3 weeks? Yikes - screw this running game!

[Lotto4Life]

Go get Rosen and save that poor dude! Let him drive a Ferrari for a few weeks instead the Hyundai he is currently stuck with.

You're doing Hyundai a disservice. Rosen's current vehicle doesn't have a functional engine, and he's being forced to ride passenger-side.

Yugo?

[DLF3000]

Go get Rosen and save that poor dude! Let him drive a Ferrari for a few weeks instead the Hyundai he is currently stuck with.

You're doing Hyundai a disservice. Rosen's current vehicle doesn't have a functional engine, and he's being forced to ride passenger-side.

Yugo?

Yugo!!

Seriously though, it's probably over for Rosen. He just can't get a break to start his career - you can only weather so many horrific dumpster fires right out of the gate, right?

[JJRules]

...Rosen...

...ride passenger-side

Scrub confirmed
/TLC

[Cameron Giles]

I usually agree with your opinions, but I gotta add something to your original point. McCoy has 5.4 YPC on 60 carries. Damien Williams has 1.7 YPC on 41 carries. They are running behind the same line.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

This remains the best tool for assessing the run game, at least statistically.

Statistically, the only lines run blocking worse than KC are the Jets and Bengals. 25th in stuffed percentage as well.

McCoy's been able to pop some longer runs as he's a better early down back between the tackles, but they're not running the ball because the line is getting beat consistently. Even then, KC is 31st in second level yards. They've just been fortunate to get some large open field runs.

Otherwise, it's odd that a team who's 5-2, with a +7.5 point differential is 26th in rushing attempts with one of the most positive scripts in football. Williams hasn't played well, but it's largely because the line is not playing well. A big part of his success last year was the yards before contact. That's not there this season.

I love your response and it made me do some more research. I understand your criticism of the offensive line. I assume that you believe McCoy has a higher average behind the same line mostly because of longer rushing plays? That's how I read it, tell me if I'm wrong.

Maybe you don't disagree with the following, but I don't believe that the "yards before contact" issue relies solely on the offensive line. I think the RB actually has more to do with YBC than the line does. A great example is a piece I did comparing Lindsay vs Freeman in Denver. Lindsay's YBC was significantly higher than Freeman's (in 2018). They have the same line, but Lindsay knows how to manipulate a defense and use proper techniques to allow plays to unfold so blocks can get setup properly.

Anyway, I love the following stats. One can use stats to tell anything you want, so I'll just post them and anyone reading this can draw their own conclusions. Percents rounded to nearest whole number:

Williams: 0 carries over 6 yards (0%)
McCoy: 13 carries over 6 yards (22%)

Williams: 1st & 10 -- 18 carries 45 yards 2.5 ave
McCoy: 1st & 10 -- 34 carries 226 yards 6.6 ave

Williams:

Code: Select all

     	Att	Yds	Y/A
1st Qtr	8	21	2.6
2nd Qtr	7	7	1.0
3rd Qtr	12	18	1.5
4th Qtr	14	24	1.7

McCoy:

Code: Select all

      	Att	Yds	Y/A
1st Qtr	14	84	6.0
2nd Qtr	15	76	5.1
3rd Qtr	14	63	4.5
4th Qtr	17	99	5.8

I don't really want to argue McCoy vs. Williams. McCoy is a better early down runner and talent. Williams strength has never been as a volume early down back.

I disagree that yards before contact places more responsibility on the RB. The simple reason is that the line getting beat trumps any technique the RB has on a given play. Le'Veon Bell has all-time good technique before crossing the LOS, and he's constantly losing this season behind arguably the worst run blocking unit in football.

If I recall correctly, Williams led or was one of the leaders in YBC last season. By your logic, that would assume that his technique is day and night from last season. However, the real reason is significant regression in the Chiefs offensive line. It's important for someone like Williams who doesn't have the talent of McCoy on early downs.

So, we are seeing his limitations as an early down runner as opposed to simply being a weapon. But the biggest reason is by far the decline in offensive line play, which is why KC isn't running much.

[Life of Pablo]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

This remains the best tool for assessing the run game, at least statistically.

My poor Le'Veon Bell...



Also... congrats to me on my 500th post. I'm officially a starter. Time to get serious. Time to get mean. Put me in coach.

[MEuRaH]

I don't really want to argue McCoy vs. Williams. McCoy is a better early down runner and talent. Williams strength has never been as a volume early down back.

I disagree that yards before contact places more responsibility on the RB. The simple reason is that the line getting beat trumps any technique the RB has on a given play. Le'Veon Bell has all-time good technique before crossing the LOS, and he's constantly losing this season behind arguably the worst run blocking unit in football.

If I recall correctly, Williams led or was one of the leaders in YBC last season. By your logic, that would assume that his technique is day and night from last season. However, the real reason is significant regression in the Chiefs offensive line. It's important for someone like Williams who doesn't have the talent of McCoy on early downs.

So, we are seeing his limitations as an early down runner as opposed to simply being a weapon. But the biggest reason is by far the decline in offensive line play, which is why KC isn't running much.

I did a bad job of explaining my point. We agree about the troubles of the O-line, of which I didn't really get to but that wasn't my argument anyway.

It's going to be interesting to see what the Andy Reid and the Chiefs come up with in these next few weeks.

[esloan35]

You're doing Hyundai a disservice. Rosen's current vehicle doesn't have a functional engine, and he's being forced to ride passenger-side.

Yugo?

Yugo!!

Seriously though, it's probably over for Rosen. He just can't get a break to start his career - you can only weather so many horrific dumpster fires right out of the gate, right?

Too funny... poor kid got the shaft..

[Pullo Vision]

With byes and injuries hitting, curious what deep/long-shot starts people are doing this week. I've got Adrian Peterson in a bad matchup against the 9ers and KeeSean Johnson against the Giants. Johnson has been closer to being cut than starting the last few weeks.

[Phaded]

I love Josh Jacobs.