Austin Hooper

[hoos89]

High time we had a thread on this guy. October ADP on mizelle was 88 overall and TE9. Fantasypros composite of all October rankings has him at 112 overall and TE11....behind Dallas Goedert, David Njoku and OJ Howard.

TE6 last season.
TE1 through 6 games this season.


So, why is it that Hooper's ranking doesn't seem to line up with his production?

[FantasyFreak]

He's good. He's good at every aspect of the position. He's an above average athlete who is good at Football. I could easily see this being his career year, but I also think he's going to produce steady numbers through his 20's. He's miles above OJH for me. I unfortunately traded him for Goedert and 4th in a best ball rebuild of mine. I would have Hooper well ahead of Goedert, now. I still have him on another team, where I am contending and plan to keep him there. He's not a sell high for me, if you have a good team.

[Cameron Giles]

Because there's never been any hype about him, so in most aspects people are still oblivious to what he's doing.

[ebsteelers]

thought his last name was pooper... cause hes the bleep.

[Vcize]

Because there's never been any hype about him, so in most aspects people are still oblivious to what he's doing.

Exactly.

He ticks nearly every box. Pretty good draft pedigree, solid progression every year pretty much in line with past elite TE breakouts, tied to a good QB for another 5 or so years, and now putting up elite numbers.

He's one of those no-hype guys where people don't really adjust to what is happening until the following season. If his name were David Njoku and he went through this exact same progression he would be the consensus dynasty TE1 right now.

That value will adjust when the season is over and everyone gets to stare at his final numbers and the progression of his career numbers for a bit. To me that makes him a buy high right now as you can pay a LOT less than TE1 prices for him. You probably don't even have to pay as much as you would have paid for the TE4 or TE5 heading into this season.

[ArrylT]

Some of the potential reasons for the lack of Hooper hype:

1 - Drafted in a quiet TE class where much of the attention went to Hunter Henry

2 - Plenty of 'disdain' for Matt Ryan (rarely considered in consideration for top QB)

3 - Has Julio Jones & Calvin Ridley to compete for with targets

Most top TE seasons continue to be seasons where the TE is the #1 target - ala Gronkowski in NE, Ertz in Philly, Kittle in SF 2018, and so forth, and with 2 top WRs in Atlanta that was not likely to be the case with Hooper.

This year has had a perfect storm of sorts in that the Atlanta Falcons Defence isnt stopping many teams, so they are playing from behind or in high scoring contests much of the time, and opposing Defences will always focus on Julio Jones and/or Devonta Freeman and/or Calvin Ridley so Matt Ryan finds Hooper in single coverage / open more frequently.

Not that I do think Austin Hooper is untalented, far from it. Just that the other factors means you can expect many owners to want Hooper to prove it time & time again before they 'trust' he is an elite TE vs. a TE propped up by situation. And as we have seen time & time again situation can be critical for TE production.

Personally I've only moved 1 share of Hooper in recent years and remain regretful that I did so, because I have always felt he was a good TE. Glad to see he is starting to get some of the recognition he deserves.

[Vcize]

Some of the potential reasons for the lack of Hooper hype:

1 - Drafted in a quiet TE class where much of the attention went to Hunter Henry

2 - Plenty of 'disdain' for Matt Ryan (rarely considered in consideration for top QB)

3 - Had Roddy White then Julio Jones & now Calvin Ridley to compete for with targets

Most top TE seasons continue to be seasons where the TE is the #1 target - ala Gronkowski in NE, Ertz in Philly, Kittle in SF 2018, and so forth, and with 2 top WRs in Atlanta that was not likely to be the case with Hooper.

This year has had a perfect storm of sorts in that the Atlanta Falcons Defence isnt stopping many teams, so they are playing from behind or in high scoring contests much of the time, and opposing Defences will always focus on Julio Jones and/or Devonta Freeman and/or Calvin Ridley so Matt Ryan finds Hooper in single coverage / open more frequently.

Not that I do think Austin Hooper is untalented, far from it. Just that the other factors means you can expect many owners to want Hooper to prove it time & time again before they 'trust' he is an elite TE vs. a TE propped up by situation. And as we have seen time & time again situation can be critical for TE production.

Personally I've only moved 1 share of Hooper in recent years and remain regretful that I did so, because I have always felt he was a good TE. Glad to see he is starting to get some of the recognition he deserves.

The old six in one, half a dozen of the other that is always repeated with FF receiving options.

Hooper will always be in one of these two scenarios. He will either be the primary target which you describe as great for an FF TE, or he will be a secondary target which you describe as great for him.

Matt Ryan is currently on pace for 688 pass attempts which would be a career high for him, but not by that much. He is typically over 600 pass attempts so while Atlanta shifting to a defensive team that doesn't have to pass much is possible, it's not like they've generally trended in that direction. Poor defense and lots of passing is their M.O. most years.

[hoos89]

I can see the argument though: he hasn't proven he can put up numbers as the #1 guy, so if he's in that situation he might not be able to produce (similar arguments are made about Godwin, JuJu and Kupp). That said...I can buy that argument for keeping Hooper out of the top tier of TEs for now, but not to knock him any further than that given that nobody past that top tier has proven they can put up huge numbers as the guy.

[Mike from Canada]

Hooper played with Roddy White?

[bjd5211]

Hooper played with Roddy White?

No, Roddy retired after 2015/2016 season, Hooper was drafted in 2016.

[Mike from Canada]

That's what I thought.

[Vcize]

I can see the argument though: he hasn't proven he can put up numbers as the #1 guy, so if he's in that situation he might not be able to produce (similar arguments are made about Godwin, JuJu and Kupp). That said...I can buy that argument for keeping Hooper out of the top tier of TEs for now, but not to knock him any further than that given that nobody past that top tier has proven they can put up huge numbers as the guy.

Ah, yea that makes sense. Fair point.

[Goddard]

I told people a year ago to buy. Most people said he was overrated. Main reason I think he's not as hyped is because it's his 4th year in the league. When a player doesn't produce their first two years, people begin to think he's a bust. However, he finally started producing last year and is the same age as some of the other stud TEs that everyone is in love with like Kittle and Engram. Only difference between Hooper and them is that he was much younger when he came into the league and took a couple of years to develop and had a lot more competition. Now he's producing similarly or better than those guys, but people still seem to downgrade him.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Hooper is kind of like the Cooper Kupp of TEs. He's not a spectacular athlete or an elite talent, but he's a very good player who will continue getting huge PPR volume ROS due to a terrible ATL defense forcing Matt Ryan into shootouts. There's an argument to be made right now for Hooper at TE4 behind only Kittle, Kelce, and Engram.

[hoos89]

I told people a year ago to buy. Most people said he was overrated. Main reason I think he's not as hyped is because it's his 4th year in the league. When a player doesn't produce their first two years, people begin to think he's a bust. However, he finally started producing last year and is the same age as some of the other stud TEs that everyone is in love with like Kittle and Engram. Only difference between Hooper and them is that he was much younger when he came into the league and took a couple of years to develop and had a lot more competition. Now he's producing similarly or better than those guys, but people still seem to downgrade him.

In fairness, Kittle and Engram have absolutely insane measurables. Hooper does profile comparably to Ertz though.