QB1 in Dynasty?

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:18 am

doublesticks wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:48 am
Here is my question, let's say you have 2 of these top 3 QBs in a start 1 QB league...do you sell off Mahomes to cash in the most value or do you ride him and sell the other, or do you just keep them and hope you start the right guy each week? Interested to hear others thoughts on this.
Mahomes is just too young (24) to sell IMO. I'd trade away any other QB and just ride Mahomes for the next decade. I think his floor is very high and we've seen his ceiling is also very high. He's a cornerstone player, don't sell high, just enjoy the production.

For instance, Russell Wilson is 30, so you get six more years of solid QB play with Mahomes, so trade away Wilson.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Life of Pablo » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:19 am

As someone who's never owned either of these guys, I'm surprised this is even a discussion. Seems like an knee-jerk reaction based on the last 2 weeks.

The only thing Watson has on Mahomes is his rushing numbers. And considering the amount of hits Watson encourages with his playstyle, I expect that advantage to start shrinking in about 2-3 years.
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR spot)
1 QB | 2 RB | 2 WR | 1 TE | 1 FLEX | 1 K | 1 D
9-2, 1st (AP: 74-25 / 74.7%, 1st)
Wk 14 QF - BYE ||| Wk 15 SF - TBD

QB: Russ, Wentz
RB: Chubb, Bell, Gurley, DJ, Breida, Ty, Wilkins
WR: Nuk, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, Hollywood, AJG, Preston
TE: Kelce, Everett, Fant
K: Maher
D: Patriots
2020 Picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2022 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Goddard » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:41 am

This is still Mahomes. Watson is closer now than he was at the beginning of the year, but it's still not a debate for me. Watson will have his big games where he blows up and looks great, but his floor is still low at times and has those dud games where you're wondering what happened. He's had two games where he threw under 200 yards and 0 TDs. Luckily for owners he rushed for a TD in both games, but still had below 20 yards rushing. None of this is a knock on Watson, but the point is, when Mahomes has a bad game, it's still better than most QBs in the league. When Watson has a bad game, it could be the reason owners lose that week.

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby ArrylT » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:13 pm

Just a fun trip down memory lane:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=110184
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby blemly » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:34 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:59 am
No, I'm keeping Mahomes his entire career everywhere I own him. It's highly unlikely you'll get enough for him that will truly make it equal value for him. I play with a longer term outlook in mind than most people though.
Last year during his breakout (~week 7) I traded him for Keenan Allen in 1QB. That’s probably what it would take, and even though I now start Winston/Darnold/Cousins, the extra flex positions make it worthwhile to trade Mahomes in a situation like that.
Team 1: 10-team 15-keeper PPR:
QB: Cousins, Winston, Darnold
RB: Zeke, DJ, Kerryon, Hill, Singletary
WR: Hopkins, Allen, Hilton, M. Williams, Pettis, Washington, A. Brown, Boykin
TE: Kittle, Goedert
2020: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Team 2 (Rebuild): 12-team Superflex 22-man 0.5PPR, 1.0PP1D:
QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Driskel
RB: KJ, Drake, Walton, Sanders
WR: OBJ, JuJu, Chark, Pettis, Tate, Hardman, Isabella, Boykin
TE: OJH, Fant
2020: 2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2021: 1, 2, 2, 2

Team 3: 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Cousins, Rodgers, Rosen, Grier
RB: Henry, Sanders, Williams, Guice, Penny, Armstead, Walton
WR: KA, AB, OBJ, Golladay, Pettis, Allison, Goodwin, Z. Jones
TE: OJH, Herndon, Gesicki
2020: 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 4 (Rebuild): 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Watson, Garopollo, Haskins
RB: Mixon, Jacobs, Hines, Hill, J. Williams
WR: Hill, Lockett, AJB, Boykin, Richardson, McLaurin, Cobb, D. Thomas
TE: OJH, Rudolph, Moreau
2020: 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby notweswelker » Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:17 pm

Factoring in age my top 5 is pretty straightforward.

Mahomes
---------------
Watson
Murray
Wilson
Wentz
Team 1: 10 Team SF
QB: Kyler Murray, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Kerryon, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Ito Smith
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Preston Williams, Trey Quinn
TE: D. Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Chris Herndon

Team 2 :14 Team SF
QB: Mahomes, Trubisky, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary
WR: D. Adams, JuJu, Golladay, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson, Preston Williams
TE: Kittle, Njoku, Herndon

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Valhalla » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:26 am

notweswelker wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:17 pm
Factoring in age my top 5 is pretty straightforward.

Mahomes
---------------
Watson
Murray
Wilson
Wentz
I agree with this list except for Wentz. He's great at extending the play just like everyone else listed there, but something tells me he's going to keep getting injured while doing so. He puts himself at too much risk too often. Injuries are a tough thing to predict, but I don't subscribe to the philosophy that they are mostly random. Some guys know how to get tackled with less impact. Some guys don't. Some guys angle their hips enough while cutting to minimize the stress on the collaterals and cruciate ligaments. Some guys don't. Some guys reach out to high point the ball with their elbows fully extended and in a position to not be able to sustain an impact (and then they fracture their elbow...like Eifert, or Amendola). Some guys keep a slight bend in the elbows naturally and so if an unexpected impact occurs, the elbow will just flex rather than fracture. Etc. Wentz isn't just extending plays. He is somewhat recklessly extending plays. It's gotta be very frustrating for defenders when, if they throw him to the ground, they get called for roughing the passer, but if they just try to wrap him up, he keeps spinning and twisting until he often escapes and then avoids the sack that would have occurred if the defender weren't trying to just wrap him up. I could see him getting free of a guy's grasp, the defender getting chewed up, and the next time he just chucks Wentz into the ground while Wentz is twirling around with guys hanging onto him.

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby notweswelker » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:47 am

Valhalla wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:26 am

I agree with this list except for Wentz. He's great at extending the play just like everyone else listed there, but something tells me he's going to keep getting injured while doing so. He puts himself at too much risk too often. Injuries are a tough thing to predict, but I don't subscribe to the philosophy that they are mostly random. Some guys know how to get tackled with less impact. Some guys don't. Some guys angle their hips enough while cutting to minimize the stress on the collaterals and cruciate ligaments. Some guys don't. Some guys reach out to high point the ball with their elbows fully extended and in a position to not be able to sustain an impact (and then they fracture their elbow...like Eifert, or Amendola). Some guys keep a slight bend in the elbows naturally and so if an unexpected impact occurs, the elbow will just flex rather than fracture. Etc. Wentz isn't just extending plays. He is somewhat recklessly extending plays. It's gotta be very frustrating for defenders when, if they throw him to the ground, they get called for roughing the passer, but if they just try to wrap him up, he keeps spinning and twisting until he often escapes and then avoids the sack that would have occurred if the defender weren't trying to just wrap him up. I could see him getting free of a guy's grasp, the defender getting chewed up, and the next time he just chucks Wentz into the ground while Wentz is twirling around with guys hanging onto him.
Totally fair take. He's definitely gotta learn to play it safe sometimes. Who would you put in his stead at #5?
Team 1: 10 Team SF
QB: Kyler Murray, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Kerryon, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Ito Smith
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Preston Williams, Trey Quinn
TE: D. Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Chris Herndon

Team 2 :14 Team SF
QB: Mahomes, Trubisky, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary
WR: D. Adams, JuJu, Golladay, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson, Preston Williams
TE: Kittle, Njoku, Herndon

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:09 am

1. Mahomes

2. Watson
3. Lamar
4. Wilson
5. Wentz

For me

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Valhalla » Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:31 am

notweswelker wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:47 am
Valhalla wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:26 am

I agree with this list except for Wentz. He's great at extending the play just like everyone else listed there, but something tells me he's going to keep getting injured while doing so. He puts himself at too much risk too often. Injuries are a tough thing to predict, but I don't subscribe to the philosophy that they are mostly random. Some guys know how to get tackled with less impact. Some guys don't. Some guys angle their hips enough while cutting to minimize the stress on the collaterals and cruciate ligaments. Some guys don't. Some guys reach out to high point the ball with their elbows fully extended and in a position to not be able to sustain an impact (and then they fracture their elbow...like Eifert, or Amendola). Some guys keep a slight bend in the elbows naturally and so if an unexpected impact occurs, the elbow will just flex rather than fracture. Etc. Wentz isn't just extending plays. He is somewhat recklessly extending plays. It's gotta be very frustrating for defenders when, if they throw him to the ground, they get called for roughing the passer, but if they just try to wrap him up, he keeps spinning and twisting until he often escapes and then avoids the sack that would have occurred if the defender weren't trying to just wrap him up. I could see him getting free of a guy's grasp, the defender getting chewed up, and the next time he just chucks Wentz into the ground while Wentz is twirling around with guys hanging onto him.
Totally fair take. He's definitely gotta learn to play it safe sometimes. Who would you put in his stead at #5?
Honestly for me it's still Baker. I think he's a better QB and it will show in time.

I did the exercise of trying to round out my top 10, though, and I was a little surprised that I had to put Wentz at #6. I was only surprised because I have little desire to own him, but I couldn't argue anyone else ahead of him.

My dynasty QB "wants"
Mahomes
-------
-------
-------
Murray
Wilson
Watson
-------
Mayfield
--------
Wentz
Rodgers
--------
Lamar
Dak
Goff
Ryan
Newton
--------
at this point I'd probably value a pick toward a rookie QB in the next class above anyone else, but if forced to list the next current NFL guy I would take, it's just rolling with Brady, and otherwise it's pairing Minshew and Foles if I have a dumpster fire and have roster space.

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby Life of Pablo » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:14 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:31 am
I did the exercise of trying to round out my top 10, though, and I was a little surprised that I had to put Wentz at #6. I was only surprised because I have little desire to own him, but I couldn't argue anyone else ahead of him.

My dynasty QB "wants"
Mahomes
-------
-------
-------
Murray
Wilson
Watson
-------
Mayfield
--------
Wentz
Rodgers
--------
Lamar
Dak
Goff
Ryan
Newton
--------
at this point I'd probably value a pick toward a rookie QB in the next class above anyone else, but if forced to list the next current NFL guy I would take, it's just rolling with Brady, and otherwise it's pairing Minshew and Foles if I have a dumpster fire and have roster space.
Not that I'm trying to turn this into a "nitpicking somebody's list" thread, but I'm surprised by the Kyler placement. What makes you so high on him? And did you already have him near that spot in the pre-season, or is it stuff you've seen/liked from these first 6 games so far that made you put him there?

Also, regarding your last statement... I'm guessing you're not a believer in Darnold, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, or Haskins? Darnold feels like the most notable absence from your list. For being only 22, I think what we've seen of his talent/potential so far is promising, though the situation remains to be seen.
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR spot)
1 QB | 2 RB | 2 WR | 1 TE | 1 FLEX | 1 K | 1 D
9-2, 1st (AP: 74-25 / 74.7%, 1st)
Wk 14 QF - BYE ||| Wk 15 SF - TBD

QB: Russ, Wentz
RB: Chubb, Bell, Gurley, DJ, Breida, Ty, Wilkins
WR: Nuk, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, Hollywood, AJG, Preston
TE: Kelce, Everett, Fant
K: Maher
D: Patriots
2020 Picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2022 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:25 pm

Life of Pablo wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:14 pm
Valhalla wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:31 am
I did the exercise of trying to round out my top 10, though, and I was a little surprised that I had to put Wentz at #6. I was only surprised because I have little desire to own him, but I couldn't argue anyone else ahead of him.

My dynasty QB "wants"
Mahomes
-------
-------
-------
Murray
Wilson
Watson
-------
Mayfield
--------
Wentz
Rodgers
--------
Lamar
Dak
Goff
Ryan
Newton
--------
at this point I'd probably value a pick toward a rookie QB in the next class above anyone else, but if forced to list the next current NFL guy I would take, it's just rolling with Brady, and otherwise it's pairing Minshew and Foles if I have a dumpster fire and have roster space.
Not that I'm trying to turn this into a "nitpicking somebody's list" thread, but I'm surprised by the Kyler placement. What makes you so high on him? And did you already have him near that spot in the pre-season, or is it stuff you've seen/liked from these first 6 games so far that made you put him there?

Also, regarding your last statement... I'm guessing you're not a believer in Darnold, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, or Haskins? Darnold feels like the most notable absence from your list. For being only 22, I think what we've seen of his talent/potential so far is promising, though the situation remains to be seen.
Yeah, I mean we all have our different takes, but personally I have Wentz well ahead of Kyler and Baker. I don't have Baker inside the top 10, personally. I'd prefer Darnold out of that class to him.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby notweswelker » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:27 pm

Life of Pablo wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:14 pm

Not that I'm trying to turn this into a "nitpicking somebody's list" thread, but I'm surprised by the Kyler placement. What makes you so high on him? And did you already have him near that spot in the pre-season, or is it stuff you've seen/liked from these first 6 games so far that made you put him there?

He's been phenomenal. Other than DJ he's got no weapons, his offensive line is bottom 5 and he is still playing incredibly for a rookie QB.
He is essentially a Lamar Jackson who can throw. Beyond that his coach is offensive minded and wants to run a ton of plays. That kind of thing is incredibly helpful (Andy Reid--->Mahomes) or incredibly hurtful (Patricia--->Stafford). Obviously Kliff isn't necessarily a long term pairing, but he looks safe for a seasons boosting my view.
Team 1: 10 Team SF
QB: Kyler Murray, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Kerryon, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Ito Smith
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Preston Williams, Trey Quinn
TE: D. Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Chris Herndon

Team 2 :14 Team SF
QB: Mahomes, Trubisky, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary
WR: D. Adams, JuJu, Golladay, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson, Preston Williams
TE: Kittle, Njoku, Herndon

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:44 pm

notweswelker wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:27 pm
Life of Pablo wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:14 pm

Not that I'm trying to turn this into a "nitpicking somebody's list" thread, but I'm surprised by the Kyler placement. What makes you so high on him? And did you already have him near that spot in the pre-season, or is it stuff you've seen/liked from these first 6 games so far that made you put him there?

He's been phenomenal. Other than DJ he's got no weapons, his offensive line is bottom 5 and he is still playing incredibly for a rookie QB.
He is essentially a Lamar Jackson who can throw. Beyond that his coach is offensive minded and wants to run a ton of plays. That kind of thing is incredibly helpful (Andy Reid--->Mahomes) or incredibly hurtful (Patricia--->Stafford). Obviously Kliff isn't necessarily a long term pairing, but he looks safe for a seasons boosting my view.
Nobody can run as well as Lamar. Murray has been OK against the better teams, and really good against the bad ones (Atlanta, for instance). I don't think phenomenal is accurate. He's played well for a rookie.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: QB1 in Dynasty?

Postby notweswelker » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:54 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:44 pm

Nobody can run as well as Lamar. Murray has been OK against the better teams, and really good against the bad ones (Atlanta, for instance). I don't think phenomenal is accurate. He's played well for a rookie.
ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Interesting to notate "really good against the bad ones" when comparing them considering Lamar's 2019 stats are mediocre to poor if you take away his two games against winless teams. I get it though, if I had Lamar I'd want Murray too.
Team 1: 10 Team SF
QB: Kyler Murray, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Kerryon, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Ito Smith
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Preston Williams, Trey Quinn
TE: D. Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Chris Herndon

Team 2 :14 Team SF
QB: Mahomes, Trubisky, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary
WR: D. Adams, JuJu, Golladay, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson, Preston Williams
TE: Kittle, Njoku, Herndon


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