When to sell "old" players on their way out.

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ravn88
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When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby ravn88 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:49 pm

Ive got a rebuilding team. With AJ Green and D. Freeman among others.

So have de seen the last RB1 game from Freeman, and there fore take what you can get. Or though him in a trade.

Green Will get be traded, will it benefit him. Will i always be injured prone an there fore take what you can get.. ?

I dont own any shares, but Big Ben could also be one.
Team 1 : 1QB 2RB 3 WR 1TE 1Flex 1K 1TM 2 IR 12 Keepers

QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: M. Gordon, M. Ingram, L. Bell, A. Jones & Jamaal W
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, M. Jones, J Crowder, Humpries & Moncrief
TE: E. Engram, Trey Burton, V Davis & J. Doyle

Team 2: 1QB 3RB 5WR 2TE 3FLEX DEF 26 Keepers 2019 Champ :thumbup:

QB: Wentz Watson J. Allen & Lock
RB: Barkley Zeke K. Hunt McCoy Penny D. Williams & Ito
WR: M. Thomas Cooper Godwin Juju J. Washington Renfrow & Zay
TE: Engram OJ Howard Waller & Everett
DEF: Pats Jags & Browns

Team 3: 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX DEF K

QB: Wilson Wentz Tannehill Teddy Haskins Foles
RB: CMC Zeke Miles CEH AP J. Jackson B. Scott
WR: Evans Adams Landry Metcalf E. Sanders Lazard
TE: Engram Hurts Ebron Herndon

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bjd5211
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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:40 pm

Thise guys were no brainer sells like 2 years ago for me, a little less so on AJ but he was situation dependant. Better to sell a year early than hold on a year too long.

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby Under The Bridge » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:12 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:40 pm
Thise guys were no brainer sells like 2 years ago for me, a little less so on AJ but he was situation dependant. Better to sell a year early than hold on a year too long.
That's the key.

For instance, you should have sold AP after his 2000 yard season and still with Minny.

If you want examples of guys you should sell now, then Big Ben and AJ Green are up there, sure, and so is Greg Olsen, and Devonta seems to fit the bill now. Larry Fitzgerald is a no-brainer, But another guy I'd look into is Julio Jones. I'd also argue Keenan Allen since Rivers is a guy you'd like to sell too.

But it all depends on the price. I wouldn't give up Julio or Keenan for less than a first round pick, and even then, a low-first isn't enough for either guy in full PPR.

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby perkinsrooster » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:53 pm

I wouldn't give up Keenan for even a high first round pick.

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby slaughterrt » Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:07 pm

Not to be overlooked, but “when to sell old” also depends on current team strategy as well.

In a rebuild, it’s a no brainer to sell these aging vets...even if it’s “selling a year early”. If you aren’t gonna be competing for say 2 years, then there is obviously no reason to keep a guy who’s value/production will be toast by then. Flip those “old” guys for what you can get to hasten your rebuild.

If you consider yourself a fringe playoff team, it gets a little harrier, but I think you have play a wait and see approach. If things break your way, then maybe you don’t sell (or don’t sell unless you get a big overpay that maybe moves your team from competitive to rebuild). If things go south, then you sell (unless your team is just bogged by injury and you think your team will rebound next year AND that player will still have value to your team next year). A lot of “ifs” in the fringe build of course.

If you are a very solid annual playoff contender, I would be content holding these “older” on my team until they retire, assuming they are contributing to my success. Unless I get an offer I can’t refuse, then I’ll hold a guy like AJG or Julio until they retire if:
A) they are helping my team compete directly by putting up points...and/or
B) they are helping my team by being kept from competitors’ teams rosters.

This is my advice on older players. IMO, it’s all dependent on your team build and how selling (or keeping) those older players will help your team.

That being said, don’t be a dumbass and instantly decline a big overpay for any player, regardless of team build.

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby ravn88 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:59 am

slaughterrt wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:07 pm
Not to be overlooked, but “when to sell old” also depends on current team strategy as well.

In a rebuild, it’s a no brainer to sell these aging vets...even if it’s “selling a year early”. If you aren’t gonna be competing for say 2 years, then there is obviously no reason to keep a guy who’s value/production will be toast by then. Flip those “old” guys for what you can get to hasten your rebuild.

If you consider yourself a fringe playoff team, it gets a little harrier, but I think you have play a wait and see approach. If things break your way, then maybe you don’t sell (or don’t sell unless you get a big overpay that maybe moves your team from competitive to rebuild). If things go south, then you sell (unless your team is just bogged by injury and you think your team will rebound next year AND that player will still have value to your team next year). A lot of “ifs” in the fringe build of course.

If you are a very solid annual playoff contender, I would be content holding these “older” on my team until they retire, assuming they are contributing to my success. Unless I get an offer I can’t refuse, then I’ll hold a guy like AJG or Julio until they retire if:
A) they are helping my team compete directly by putting up points...and/or
B) they are helping my team by being kept from competitors’ teams rosters.

This is my advice on older players. IMO, it’s all dependent on your team build and how selling (or keeping) those older players will help your team.

That being said, don’t be a dumbass and instantly decline a big overpay for any player, regardless of team build.
Thanks for this answer. :thumbup:
The team is an orphan.

But i also have a contender with both Julio and Keenan.
And i was Accually thinking of moving on, this offseason, so I could keep being a contender.
But with younger prices
Team 1 : 1QB 2RB 3 WR 1TE 1Flex 1K 1TM 2 IR 12 Keepers

QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: M. Gordon, M. Ingram, L. Bell, A. Jones & Jamaal W
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, M. Jones, J Crowder, Humpries & Moncrief
TE: E. Engram, Trey Burton, V Davis & J. Doyle

Team 2: 1QB 3RB 5WR 2TE 3FLEX DEF 26 Keepers 2019 Champ :thumbup:

QB: Wentz Watson J. Allen & Lock
RB: Barkley Zeke K. Hunt McCoy Penny D. Williams & Ito
WR: M. Thomas Cooper Godwin Juju J. Washington Renfrow & Zay
TE: Engram OJ Howard Waller & Everett
DEF: Pats Jags & Browns

Team 3: 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX DEF K

QB: Wilson Wentz Tannehill Teddy Haskins Foles
RB: CMC Zeke Miles CEH AP J. Jackson B. Scott
WR: Evans Adams Landry Metcalf E. Sanders Lazard
TE: Engram Hurts Ebron Herndon

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:25 am

With me QB's I keep till they die and TE's as well they age better

WR's once they hit like 28-30 I try and shop them a lot of WR's tend to fall off a cliff once they hit 30 so I sell them early this way I don't have to deal with that, and in dynasty no one is paying for a 30 Y/O WR so 28 is why I pick that age

RB's are harder to gauge IMO. the could play and be serviceable into their 30's or they can hit their cliff at 27 especially if they were a workhorse back.

Its all opinion base, but me personally

QB's - I keep
RB's - 27 and up I shop/ trade
WR's - 28 and up
TE - Keep

Obviously if your a contender some vets aren't bad to have on the roster for bye weeks, but my core I try and keep young.
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs

QB- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Fitzmagic
RB- Chris Carson, Damian Harris, Le'Veon Bell Lenard Forunette, AJ Dillion, Miles Gaskin,
WR- Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley,DJ Chark, Michael Pittman,
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith,

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

QB Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Zeke, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, Cohen, AJ Dillon
WR Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, D.J. Chark Tee Higgins, Marvin Jones, Paris Campbell, Golden Tate,
TE Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Irv Smith, OJ Howard, Logan Thomas

“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby kmbryant09 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:21 am

One thing that I might start experimenting with is only rostering RBs that are on their rookie contract.

First off, it really helps avoid holding onto RBs too long.

Secondly, with how quickly RBs can lose value (injury, poor play, etc.), you mitigate a lot of the risk in your investment.

Thirdly, I find that 1st round rookie RBs are generally undervalued. The hit rate in fantasy is pretty impressive over the past 5 - 10 years, and I still saw Josh Jacobs criminally undervalued this off-season. You can typically get top12 production from a 1st-round RB, and they should maintain or increase their value over the next 2 - 3 years. Even a relative "bust" like Leonard Fournette has put together multiple useful fantasy seasons, maintained his value over the last 3 years, and is actually increasing his value this year.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield
RB: M. Sanders, C. Edwards-Helaire, J. Robinson,, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, M. Gaskin, C. Edmonds, P. Lindsay, T. Pollard, B. Scott
WR: C. Ridley, A.J. Brown, O. Beckham Jr., Di. Johnson, J. Reagor, P. Williams, D. Duvernay, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, I. Smith Jr.

2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 2, 3, 4

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby hockeyBjj » Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:12 am

If you're thinking "I should look to sell this getting older guy before he gets too old" you've already missed your window

You need to sell them when they're still producing at their prime. When it hurts to sell them and you don't want to because they for sure will have at least another primo season the next year(s)

Of course, if you're team is contending, don't sell. Keep riding
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2019: 5th place :wall:
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
RB: Saquan Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram,JK Dobbins, Hyde, Gore
WR: Hopkins, Mike Evans, Juju Smith, T Boyd, Jarvis Landry, R Gage, G Tate, D Slayton, B Perriman, T Williams, A Miller, Beasley, Bourne, AB clown
TE: George Kittle, Higbee, Akins, Reed, K Smith
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Titans, Jax, McManus Den
Taxi- D Henderson, A Mattison, B Snell
picks- 2021- 3,4 2022-1,2,4,5

team 2- 12 team ppr, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1WR/RB/TE, 1 RB/TE
Threepeat Champs 8-)
QB: Wilson, Cousins, Haskins
RB: CMC, D Cook, Kamara, D Henry, T Cohen, P Barber, M Brown, R Armstead,
WR:Hopkins, Arob, Golloday, Diggs, Edelman, M Williams, Fuller, Perriman, Westbrook, Hurns, Lazard, Dorsett, Higgins,
TE: Kelce, Andrews, Dissly, Akins
picks- 2021- 3,4,5 2022 1,2,3,4,5

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby Slackalacker » Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:44 am

I’m a fan of the patriots way. I would rather sell early for full value and miss out on the last 1-2good years a player has than hold them and be stuck with nothing.

Not many old players stand the test of time outside of QB and some TEs, and Larry.

I got burned in Kupps rookie season by packing a first and Kupp for Jordy when he looked great, that will be the last time I buy a WR over 30 and honestly I’ll look to sell most of them by 29. You won’t always get it right but it’s a higher chance you will, and I don’t want to be the one stuck holding the bag because losing value like that is how good teams can become depleted within a couple years.
5-1 TEAM 1 - 10 team 1PPR (SF in 2021) | 2017 & 2019 League Champ :dance:
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/4FLEX - 1/2/2/2/3/4/4
QB: Wilson - Wentz - Tua - Hurts - Eason
RB: Zeke - Mixon - Sanders - Davis - Pollard - Hill - Barkley(IR) - Coleman(IR)
WR: MThom - Godwin - DJM - Hollywood - Jefferson - Higgins - Pittman - Edwards - Mims - Scott Miller - Ross - Campbell(IR)
TE: Engram - Hock - Njoku

2-4TEAM 2 - 10 Team 1ppr |2019 Orphan
1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX
QB: Wentz - Brees - Rivers
RB: CMC - Sanders - JT - Gaskin - Duke - Hill - Ito - Riddick - Bowden - Smallwood - Walton - Wilkins
WR: JuJu - Hill - PWill - Lazard - Samuel - Scotty - MVS - Van Jefferson - Enunwa - Washington - Trent Taylor -
TE: Hooper - Henry - Hurst - Gronk - Warring

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby sugbear65 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:00 pm

I’m a roster roller, I like to trade. Probably too much. So my lineup, and essentially entire roster, changes from year to year. This system isn’t for everyone, it takes a lot of trade hustling and commitment to the strategy. But it does somewhat insulate you from the age argument. I will buy players regardless of age, I just base it off current general perceived value. If I’m getting a good a deal, I’ll take it. As long as I flip players every year, I never take too much of a loss of value, and you get the occasional increase. Particularly because I’m buying said players at an age discount to begin with.
As long as you keep moving and sell on swings, even retired players can find some kind of return. I got stuck with Gronkowski in two leagues, I couldn’t find a buyer before he retired. So I waited, and around mid summer when Gronk had a rotoblurb about him catching passes from some country singer at a concert, I found a buyer in one league, I sold him straight up for Jimmy Graham. Couple of weeks ago, after Cam went down and Jimmy had a good game, I sold Graham straight up to a TE desperate team for Cam. We’ll see what I get for Cam. In the other league I sold him for a 3rd(split draft, first two rounds take place before NFL draft, and 3-5 happen in August) to a rebuilding team on the premise that if he came back he would get a 2nd+ for him. And maybe he will. The point is, keep hustling and you can mitigate the “age factor” some.

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Re: When to sell "old" players on their way out.

Postby ravn88 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:37 pm

hockeyBjj wrote:
Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:12 am
If you're thinking "I should look to sell this getting older guy before he gets too old" you've already missed your window

You need to sell them when they're still producing at their prime. When it hurts to sell them and you don't want to because they for sure will have at least another primo season the next year(s)

Of course, if you're team is contending, don't sell. Keep riding
So for my first team in sig, you would ride out Ingram, Jones x2, Allen and Hopkins ?
Team 1 : 1QB 2RB 3 WR 1TE 1Flex 1K 1TM 2 IR 12 Keepers

QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: M. Gordon, M. Ingram, L. Bell, A. Jones & Jamaal W
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, M. Jones, J Crowder, Humpries & Moncrief
TE: E. Engram, Trey Burton, V Davis & J. Doyle

Team 2: 1QB 3RB 5WR 2TE 3FLEX DEF 26 Keepers 2019 Champ :thumbup:

QB: Wentz Watson J. Allen & Lock
RB: Barkley Zeke K. Hunt McCoy Penny D. Williams & Ito
WR: M. Thomas Cooper Godwin Juju J. Washington Renfrow & Zay
TE: Engram OJ Howard Waller & Everett
DEF: Pats Jags & Browns

Team 3: 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX DEF K

QB: Wilson Wentz Tannehill Teddy Haskins Foles
RB: CMC Zeke Miles CEH AP J. Jackson B. Scott
WR: Evans Adams Landry Metcalf E. Sanders Lazard
TE: Engram Hurts Ebron Herndon