Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Sriracha » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:00 am

notweswelker wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:23 pm
Phaded they have so much cap space, this is a good deal. 26,000,000 as of now, projected 80,000,000 + in 2020.
If he plays like this, they've got a top 5 TE at a reasonable price.
I like Waller and the deal here. Good for everyone.
Waller is a good receiving TE. He's #2 in the NFL among qualifying TEs with 3.32 yards per pass route... which is very impressive.

HOWEVER

Waller's breakout happened at 27 years old amidst a WR void for target competition.

The Raiders do not use him in the redzone, which limits his TD upside.

Foster Moreau is clocking in a truly absurd 4.85 yards per pass route as a rookie while being the superior blocker (on a lower sample size, of course).

I don't think this contract is bad at all for the Raiders; however this doesn't mean he's going to be the clear #1 TE in OAK for the next 4 years. Foster Moreau is triggering many of my rookie TE sophomore break out cues; and should not be ignored. There's a very real possibility that they cannibalize each other's production in the coming years (unless OAK opts to not revamp their receiving core-- which seems unlikely given that they've already tried to do that with the AB trade this offseason).

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:15 am

Waller has Gary Barnidge 2.0 written all over him. He's producing because there is no one else to throw to.

This is quite the contract for a TE who doesn't get touchdowns, is merely a dump off option, and has a handful of good games to his name.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby themburns » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:48 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:15 am
Waller has Gary Barnidge 2.0 written all over him. He's producing because there is no one else to throw to.

This is quite the contract for a TE who doesn't get touchdowns, is merely a dump off option, and has a handful of good games to his name.
Gary Barnidge broke out in his 7th NFL season at age 30 and as far as I'm aware of, didn't have an addiction problem that might be a mitigating factor in his lack of production. This is only Waller's 3rd season playing the TE position. I think it's a far different story. Waller is 5th in TE targets in the league, so yeah, a high % of the team's targets but on the whole, but it's not so outlandish to think he could keep up this share as the offense becomes more efficient.
#1 Purestrain Pain (12 team ppr):
QB: Jackson/, R Wilson
RB: Chubb, A. Jones, Carson, Penny, D. Henderson, L. Murray, Breida, Edmonds
WR: Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, McLaurin, M. Brown, C. Davis, Coutee
TE: A. Hooper, Hunter Henry, Fant, Goedert
1.1, 4 2020 1st

#2 Fatalistic Femmes (12 team superflex, ppr) *2018 Champs
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Burrow*
RB: D. Cook, D. Henry J. Jacobs, Conner, K. Johnson, J Richard,
WR: A. Robinson, DJ Chark, DK Metcalf, E. Sanders, Corey Davis, Watkins, Agholor, J. Reynolds, K. Stills
TE: Kittle, D Waller, Ebron, Herndon

#3 (14 team superflex bestball, 10 starters, no waivers, ppr tiered, .5/1/2, 6 pt all TDs)
QB: Mahomes, Tua, Fromm, Grier
RB: Jacobs, JK Dobbins, Mostert, Henderson, D. Evans, J. Kelley, C. Edmonds
WR: DK Metcalf, C Kupp, C Ridley, T Mclaurin, C Lamb, D Samuel, D Mims, Pettis
TE: Andrews, Hockenson, Smith Jr, Herndon, Kmet
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:27 am

We obviously disagree and I hope I'm wrong - but there are far too many red flags to ignore. Why they would give him this kind of extension with such a small sample size is beyond me.

TEs in the Raiders get a 39% target share - the 2nd highest amount in the league. That's not going to maintain when they get receivers.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby themburns » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:34 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:27 am
We obviously disagree and I hope I'm wrong - but there are far too many red flags to ignore. Why they would give him this kind of extension with such a small sample size is beyond me.

TEs in the Raiders get a 39% target share - the 2nd highest amount in the league. That's not going to maintain when they get receivers.
The 2020 WR FA class is pretty barren. I don't know that they get functional WRs by next season. It's not going to be 39% going forward for him, but if the Raiders create more plays and convert more 3rd downs, he doesn't need 39% to be fantasy relevant. I would expect that the guarantees don't give him much past next season. I'm not sure if the Davis family got their finances straightened out, but this screams a cap floor deal to me.
#1 Purestrain Pain (12 team ppr):
QB: Jackson/, R Wilson
RB: Chubb, A. Jones, Carson, Penny, D. Henderson, L. Murray, Breida, Edmonds
WR: Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, McLaurin, M. Brown, C. Davis, Coutee
TE: A. Hooper, Hunter Henry, Fant, Goedert
1.1, 4 2020 1st

#2 Fatalistic Femmes (12 team superflex, ppr) *2018 Champs
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Burrow*
RB: D. Cook, D. Henry J. Jacobs, Conner, K. Johnson, J Richard,
WR: A. Robinson, DJ Chark, DK Metcalf, E. Sanders, Corey Davis, Watkins, Agholor, J. Reynolds, K. Stills
TE: Kittle, D Waller, Ebron, Herndon

#3 (14 team superflex bestball, 10 starters, no waivers, ppr tiered, .5/1/2, 6 pt all TDs)
QB: Mahomes, Tua, Fromm, Grier
RB: Jacobs, JK Dobbins, Mostert, Henderson, D. Evans, J. Kelley, C. Edmonds
WR: DK Metcalf, C Kupp, C Ridley, T Mclaurin, C Lamb, D Samuel, D Mims, Pettis
TE: Andrews, Hockenson, Smith Jr, Herndon, Kmet
+ 6 guys

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:35 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:27 am
We obviously disagree and I hope I'm wrong - but there are far too many red flags to ignore. Why they would give him this kind of extension with such a small sample size is beyond me.

TEs in the Raiders get a 39% target share - the 2nd highest amount in the league. That's not going to maintain when they get receivers.
Doesn't really matter, for real football purposes, at least. He's a mismatch. He fits what Gruden wants, and he does it well. Gruden has been on about him all off season, so the sample size to Gruden is much larger. He's seen what we are seeing in games all off season. I like that they locked him up. He's a good fit for this offense, and requires attention from opposing D's if you want to stop him.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:10 am

Is he that much of a mismatch or is he just being force fed? He has no touchdowns, he hasn't shown he can be a field stretcher.

He strikes me more of a possession tight end, rather than the athletic mismatch he should be based on his profile which is a red flag - whether that is due to him or playcalling though, I'm not sure.

I want him to succeed but I don't see anything special.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Goddard » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:16 am

Just go look at Delanie Walker when he went to Tennessee. Check what his age was and what he did (or didn't do) prior to that when he was in SF.

Also, we all know Waller has had his issues off the field, so the late breakout isn't necessarily because he wasn't good before and now is just posting numbers because there's no one else to throw the ball to. I think he's always been talented, just never got a real chance because of some of his own poor decision making.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:23 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:10 am
Is he that much of a mismatch or is he just being force fed? He has no touchdowns, he hasn't shown he can be a field stretcher.

He strikes me more of a possession tight end, rather than the athletic mismatch he should be based on his profile which is a red flag - whether that is due to him or playcalling though, I'm not sure.

I want him to succeed but I don't see anything special.
Really? I think he looks significantly more athletic than linebackers that have the size to physically match him, and much larger than CBs that can keep pace with him. To be fair I haven't watched too many Raiders games, but when I see waller, he looks like you'd need a Kam Chancellor to cover him, big, strong, fast, good skills as a SS (like how he would make Vernon Davis his lap dog)
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QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby notweswelker » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:36 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:00 am


Foster Moreau is clocking in a truly absurd 4.85 yards per pass route as a rookie while being the superior blocker (on a lower sample size, of course).

lol :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

You missed bro

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:45 am

nathanq42 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:23 am
Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:10 am
Is he that much of a mismatch or is he just being force fed? He has no touchdowns, he hasn't shown he can be a field stretcher.

He strikes me more of a possession tight end, rather than the athletic mismatch he should be based on his profile which is a red flag - whether that is due to him or playcalling though, I'm not sure.

I want him to succeed but I don't see anything special.
Really? I think he looks significantly more athletic than linebackers that have the size to physically match him, and much larger than CBs that can keep pace with him. To be fair I haven't watched too many Raiders games, but when I see waller, he looks like you'd need a Kam Chancellor to cover him, big, strong, fast, good skills as a SS (like how he would make Vernon Davis his lap dog)
That's the thing - is he looks and measures like that, but he doesn't play like that. Again, not sure if it's due to Waller, a limited route tree, Carr, playcalling or what - but his measurables should make him more dominant than he is.

This feels like a "chasing the points" situation.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby TheNuts » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:49 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:27 am
We obviously disagree and I hope I'm wrong - but there are far too many red flags to ignore. Why they would give him this kind of extension with such a small sample size is beyond me.

TEs in the Raiders get a 39% target share - the 2nd highest amount in the league. That's not going to maintain when they get receivers.
Considering how well Jared Cook produced in last years Raiders offense, I would say this is one of the best spots for a tight end, and one of the most likely to produce a consistent TE1
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
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14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

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Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby notweswelker » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:56 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:45 am

That's the thing - is he looks and measures like that, but he doesn't play like that. Again, not sure if it's due to Waller, a limited route tree, Carr, playcalling or what - but his measurables should make him more dominant than he is.

This feels like a "chasing the points" situation.
He's been getting open and catching passes at an absurd rate. 37/42. Maybe it's just the pessimistic Raiders fan in you man, but he looks pretty bleep dominant to me. TDs will come, that kind of variance even happened to Julio Jones.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:18 am

TheNuts wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:49 am
Phaded wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:27 am
We obviously disagree and I hope I'm wrong - but there are far too many red flags to ignore. Why they would give him this kind of extension with such a small sample size is beyond me.

TEs in the Raiders get a 39% target share - the 2nd highest amount in the league. That's not going to maintain when they get receivers.
Considering how well Jared Cook produced in last years Raiders offense, I would say this is one of the best spots for a tight end, and one of the most likely to produce a consistent TE1
Again, still no receivers worth a damn. The TEs are such a main focus because there is no one else to throw to. Let's see if that maintains when they add more talent, or I guess if?

I've said it before and I'll say it again, any player will produce if they get the targets.

People are prematurely crowning this guy is my point. He's now the 4th highest paid TE in the league based on AAV and we are talking about him being a consistent TE1 from a 5 game sample size? Really? If he gets hurt next week I wouldn't be surprised if his replacement put up similar numbers.

Again, I said that it's great for fantasy but a poor real life move.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Sriracha » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:26 am

notweswelker wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:36 am
IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:00 am


Foster Moreau is clocking in a truly absurd 4.85 yards per pass route as a rookie while being the superior blocker (on a lower sample size, of course).

lol :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

You missed bro
Bookmarking this quote for 2021 ;)


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