Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

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joeya2001
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby joeya2001 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:54 am

azthecrow wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:14 am
I hope he stays clean. If so, I see a very successful career ahead of him. He’s tough, talented, and determined.
A good combination
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WR- OBJ, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Preston Wilson, Corey Davis, Josh GOrdon
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:47 pm

This signing is about what the Raiders want to do offensively. Waller and Moreau on the field at the same time allow the Raiders plenty of options in the pass game, while also helping the running game. It's about Jacobs, the OL, and playing physical football, with 2 TE's that can block you or create mismatches in the passing game. The Raiders definitely need another WR to compliment Williams, but keeping Waller allows them to run certain personnel sets that are advantageous to their strengths as a football team.
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby notweswelker » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:07 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:50 pm
:boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo:

Hyping your lotto picks in other player's breakout threads... sad bro

Do you have a GoFundMe?

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby notweswelker » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:11 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:50 pm


Oh, let's play the pre draft analysis game:

OVERALL

Foster Moreau is one of our favorite all-around prospects and people in the 2019 draft class. He's tough as nails as a blocker and runner, with added upside as a receiver over the middle. If he finds himself in a scheme that values throwing to the tight end as well as blocking in the run game, Moreau will be a middle-round steal.



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PRO COMPARISON: George Kittle
I'm quoting Lance Zierlein and you're quoting a CNN affiliate sports writer who you knew was so bad you didn't even put his name in.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby IZigUZag » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:30 pm

notweswelker wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:07 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:50 pm
:boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo:

Hyping your lotto picks in other player's breakout threads... sad bro

Do you have a GoFundMe?
:lol:

I’m simply pointing out that there is cause for concern over the long term prospects of Waller.

If you don't agree thats fine, but lay off with the personal attacks simply because you don't like what I have to say

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Phaded » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:33 pm

Personal attacks is what this forum consistently resorts to when they don't actually have a counter argument.
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:03 pm

Not really related to this topic ... but I was just in Vegas and the Raiders are going to make huge $$$$ once they move. I could see them putting together a really good offense that makes multiple player extremely valuable. If you assume their issue were cash flow related & not just being cheap, then I think the new Raiders will be a dominant team in the near future.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby TheNuts » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:01 pm

I'm concerned so hard. I like the arguments against Waller that blatantly ignore how good he is. It makes total sense.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:02 pm

Yes he is. End thread.
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby IZigUZag » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:22 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:01 pm
I'm concerned so hard. I like the arguments against Waller that blatantly ignore how good he is. It makes total sense.
?

On the contrary, I pointed to Waller's #2 yards per route run among qualifying TE's in an earlier post-- indicating that he is indeed, good.

Moreau's yards per route run (admittedly on a much smaller sample size) is even higher; this is important as another blocking specialist someone compared Moreau too, Ellison is averaging an extremely pedestrian .97 yards per route run-- indicating that he is indeed a one dimensional blocking TE. This is not the case with Moreau, and how he produces with an increase in volume remains to be seen. He is already a better blocker, and the chance that he becomes a comparably good receiver is non-zero.

Right now, hands down Waller is balling and is obviously the more valuable asset... but this is Dynasty where long term forecasts are also an important factor in player valuations; and target competition has a big impact on how much a receiver produces in fantasy. Even moreso at positions like TE where there is no guarantee (from year to year) that 2 of them will even be on the field most of the snaps.

But I've said all I've wanted to say on this subject... If you want to go headstrong into love for the Wallerus, go for it. As for me, I'm riding him this year where I have him and am willing to sell to people who believe he's a locked in top 5 TE for the next 4 years.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby TheNuts » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:04 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:22 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:01 pm
I'm concerned so hard. I like the arguments against Waller that blatantly ignore how good he is. It makes total sense.
?

On the contrary, I pointed to Waller's #2 yards per route run among qualifying TE's in an earlier post-- indicating that he is indeed, good.

Moreau's yards per route run (admittedly on a much smaller sample size) is even higher; this is important as another blocking specialist someone compared Moreau too, Ellison is averaging an extremely pedestrian .97 yards per route run-- indicating that he is indeed a one dimensional blocking TE. This is not the case with Moreau, and how he produces with an increase in volume remains to be seen. He is already a better blocker, and the chance that he becomes a comparably good receiver is non-zero.

Right now, hands down Waller is balling and is obviously the more valuable asset... but this is Dynasty where long term forecasts are also an important factor in player valuations; and target competition has a big impact on how much a receiver produces in fantasy. Even moreso at positions like TE where there is no guarantee (from year to year) that 2 of them will even be on the field most of the snaps.

But I've said all I've wanted to say on this subject... If you want to go headstrong into love for the Wallerus, go for it. As for me, I'm riding him this year where I have him and am willing to sell to people who believe he's a locked in top 5 TE for the next 4 years.
I didn't say it was you. I get being worried for the future, but who are you going to replace him with? Tight ends are on and off the injury list constantly. If Waller is durable, I recommend holding on with an iron grip and riding it out unless a too good to pass up offer comes out. I owned a lot of Jimmy Graham stock in his prime, and he was maddening to have even when he was putting up WR1 numbers.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby kmbryant09 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:10 am

Back on topic - Waller certainly looked the part yesterday, exploding for 7 / 126 / 2 against Green Bay. His day could've been even bigger, as he had a ~30 yard TD called back for holding and was tackled at the 1-yard line after a 43 yard catch.

I'd say he's the real deal. He's an above-average starting TE in the NFL and is athletic enough as a converted WR to be a mismatch going against LB's.

Now, is he going to continue on this pace and finish with 115 / 1,300 / 5 TD's this season, and in future seasons? Almost definitely not.

I do think he can flirt with 100 / 1,100 this year because there really is a lack of competition for targets in that offense. But moving forward, I'm assuming he'll be more in the 80 / 900 range once they bring in a quality WR or two.
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:37 pm

I think it is hard for a lot of us to believe in Darren Waller because he is a post-hype guy that many may have already given up on. Add in he is a positional convert & that scares some people away. It is always tougher to believe in someone you've previously said no to, or been 'disappointed' by.

I mentioned on another thread, I think it is a lot easier to change your mind about a player if you actually have a share or 2 of them. Obviously if you only play in 1-2 dynasty leagues thats not likely to happen. But if you do say 5 or 10, having 1 share of a player that you're not sold on might allow you to help avoid building bias against that player. And since it is only 1-2 shares it is not like you're going to build a ton of positive bias for them.

Anyways on Waller himself, I think he is for real in that he is likely to stick with the NFL mid to long-term (next few years), especially considering that contract. As to whether he will be a top TE1, a borderline TE1 or a TE2 every year it is still too early for me to say. As long as the Raiders employ this type of offence and both Carr & Waller remain, it seems feasible that he will at least be in yearly TE1 consideration.

My only word of caution is that he does (a) have a history of concerns (be it injuries or substance abuse) and (b) he is obviously a later breakout so projecting anything beyond the next couple of years is risky at best.

I do not mention those things to suggest that Waller is a high risk to have more injuries or suspensions - but that those concerns are likely to be factored into his price when buying or selling him.
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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby notweswelker » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:55 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:10 am
Back on topic - Waller certainly looked the part yesterday, exploding for 7 / 126 / 2 against Green Bay. His day could've been even bigger, as he had a ~30 yard TD called back for holding and was tackled at the 1-yard line after a 43 yard catch.

I'd say he's the real deal. He's an above-average starting TE in the NFL and is athletic enough as a converted WR to be a mismatch going against LB's.

Now, is he going to continue on this pace and finish with 115 / 1,300 / 5 TD's this season, and in future seasons? Almost definitely not.

I do think he can flirt with 100 / 1,100 this year because there really is a lack of competition for targets in that offense. But moving forward, I'm assuming he'll be more in the 80 / 900 range once they bring in a quality WR or two.
Agree with this. This season could be his peak or very close to it. Love Waller but it will be tough to repeat a ~100/1100 year if they also had competent WRs.
He looks like he could throw up a few ~80/900 5-9 TD seasons though. Provided he stays clean I love him for the next few seasons as a high end TE1.

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Re: Darren Waller...is he the real deal?

Postby vix_trader » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:03 am

Surprised to see the pessimism around Waller in this thread. I'm definitely a bias owner but I think this guy is for real. Seems like he checks the boxes for what everyone wants in an elite fantasy tight end. Great size, superb athlete, catches like a receiver, lines out wide, on the field for almost every play. It's easy to say he's only getting targets because they have no one else to throw to. But also realize he's caught 44 of 50 targets so far. They are throwing to him because he's getting open. It's not like he's getting 12 targets a game and catching 5 of them. If a player is getting open and making plays, I have to believe they'll continue to get targets regardless if they add a receiver or two. The fact that they just signed him to a big contract solidified it for me. They aren't paying him that kind of money to block and catch a few passes a game for 20 yards. They are paying him because he can be on the field for every play and he's a mismatch that can be utilized in the pass game to exploit match ups.

I realize there is some risk due to past suspensions but this guy just turned 27. He's not THAT old. I feel he is being undervalued because of his age and unusual path to success. If Noah Fant starts his 3rd season like this people will be calling him the next Gronk and asking for three 1st's. I realize it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but I think it gets the point across.
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