Let's talk... JuJu Smith-Schuster

[ArrylT]

It wasn't too long ago that it was foolish to sell ARob after his big year either.

But selling JuJu now would be like selling ARob after his NOT big year.

How so? Someone above just said they coupled JuJu with picks to upgrade to Hill.
His value is still relatively high.

One of the biggest mistakes in this community is this mindset that a player who is disappointing will bounce-back. There are countless situations where the bounce-back does not happen.

Many of those failures to bounce back tend to be due to either

(a) off-field concerns
or
(b) injuries of the type that sapped ability or kept them off the field frequently

For example (A) guys

David Boston
Michael Floyd
Josh Gordon

some (B) type guys are

Victor Cruz
Percy Harvin
Hakeem Nicks

The brief declines of guys like Deandre Hopkins, TY Hilton, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen & perhaps now Juju Smith-Schuster are different in that their decline years tended to be WR3/4 type years due to multiple factors - whether bad qb play, fluke injury, massive situation/system change/etc that did not impact their ability to return to a high level of play.

And yes I mention Allen Robinson as having returned back to potential WR1 and at least WR2 status - this year he has actually been one of the safest floor WRs to own - despite his QB situation - having 7 of 9 weeks with 10+ points and he's WR16 on the year so far. All while being 26 and wont be 27 til Aug 2020.

While there is no 100% guarantee of a bounce back with any player - that really is no different than expectations with anything else be it RB Health, Rookie hit rate & so forth. All we can do is hedge our bets. So if an owner does not think JJSS is going to bounce back - then make a lateral move to a similar asset.

Do this:

Trade date: 2019-11-05
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN
for
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT

or this

Trade date: 2019-11-13
WR Odell Beckham, CLE
for
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
Year 2020 round 3 draft pick from Tokyo Seahawks

or if rookie picks are your thing maybe do this:

Trade date: 2019-10-24
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
for
RB Duke Johnson, HOU
Year 2020 round 1 draft pick from Sandusky's Rejects
Year 2020 round 1 draft pick from Frost on the Pumkin
Year 2020 round 2 draft pick from Playoff Billy V

Don't settle for this:

Trade date: 2019-11-01
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC
for
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT

or this:

Trade date: 2019-10-24
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
for
WR Preston Williams, MIA
RB Damien Williams, KCC
TE Will Dissly, SEA

[Pullo Vision]

Hes getting roasted plenty on Twitter and other boards. You want to call it something else, cool. I dont care about semantics.

Anyway, point is it'd be pretty foolish to sell now. This season just hasn't gone his way. It happens.

Ok, well you came to this forum and this post to decry "Juju hate" when there has been nothing of the sort, criticism and difference of opinion on his value is not hate. Juju is a very good player and carries significant value, but the expectation of him being a top 5 WR was unrealistic. As I stated originally his value in large part due to his age, because while I don't think he puts up massive WR1 numbers regularly (if ever again), there is certainly still a lot of value in a set and forget WR2 for 10 years. You're right now is not likely the best time to sell him, but I doubt he ever reaches the value he had this past offseason again either.

I hate players whose value is propped up by age. There was a time when ARob was the same. His age didn't score me any points each week, and I didn't get a bonus any week because of all the points he got in a
previous year.

Youth artificially creating value is the flip of situation artificially propping up value.

[bjd5211]

I say it increases his value because his value isn't in a short window of massive production, it's in him being a long-term quality starter and weekly contributor. That is a very valuable asset in a dynasty setting, but year to year there are clearly better options.

[themburns]

Three documented concussions. I've seen enough to not be worried about the talent, but this is about where I have to start treating him like a 28 year old WR.

[Pullo Vision]

For over a year, I've been trying to get juju Smith Schuster. No luck, but it was hard because a Steelers fan had him. I took over a team this offseason and stumbled into owning him. I went from giddy to concerned. Kinda the opposite of the stereotype, I became less confident in him once he was on my roster.

Can be be a lead WR in the NFL? I've seen stats that Juju continued to play primarily out of the slot last year, even without AB. If be continues to be a slot guy primarily, would this limit his production potential, long term? He's a FA after this year and there's been talk the Steelers might not resign him. How does the prospect of a QB/scheme downgrade impact his value?

I've been trying to get him so long but I need a pep talk now that I have him. Help an owner out, lol.

[FantasyFreak]

Juju is great out of the slot. I think he's best if he has somebody on the other side, even if it isn't an AB. Somebody like Fuller even. I think last year was not a good year to make this judgement. He played hurt all year, and his QB play was atrocious. He did go 6 for 78 against the future DPOY in week 1, the only week he was healthy, with a competent QB. Juju has a great profile, and has been a playmaker from the time he set foot on the field. Young players often struggle with consistency, but I think Juju will be a very good player for many years. I don't think he'll ever be in the elite tier of WR's, but I think he will be a very good producer. 80-90 catches, 1100 yards, 7 TD's type thing. Maybe a bit more if you want to project over the new 17 game schedule, which I guess we will all have to start doing now.

[CGW]

Juju has big Ben back this year, which is a massive upgrade over the garbage they threw out last year. If he can stay healthy, I have a hard time imagining him not being a productive asset. As for the Steelers resigning him, hard to say what will happen but talent over situation. He's proved he is talented and could just as easily end up in a good situation over a bad one if he goes elsewhere.

If you aren't sold, see what you can get for him. He's still very high on many folks lists. If thats the case be going after Johnson heavily, because if juju isn't their WR1 there is a good chance Diontae is.

[Jigga94]

He's been so polarizing and volatile value wise since entering the league. He was (and still is!) so young, so when he had that great run with AB, people had him as a WR1 (usually around WR6 after Hopkins, MT, Adams, Tyreek and Odell). Then they lost AB and Ben went down. I think he needs at least one of these to be at least a WR2...

He's got the talent, but I'm not sold that Big Ben coming back brings him right back to his top production. Partly because Ben isn't the same anymore (although he's definitely better than the crap they had last year). Partly because they need another offensive weapon..

Neither of those 2 things are to say he's not great, I mean not many WR can be a WR1 or even 2 without something else on offense distracting the defense.

Can Connor do that? Ive never thought he was that special, but he's good. Then they have a lot of inexperienced WR. Diontae Johnson, James Washington and now Chase Claypool. That's a lot of draft capital there and those guys may be the beneficiaries of defenses focusing on JUJU.

[AussieMate]

Juju is great out of the slot. I think he's best if he has somebody on the other side, even if it isn't an AB. Somebody like Fuller even. I think last year was not a good year to make this judgement. He played hurt all year, and his QB play was atrocious. He did go 6 for 78 against the future DPOY in week 1, the only week he was healthy, with a competent QB. Juju has a great profile, and has been a playmaker from the time he set foot on the field. Young players often struggle with consistency, but I think Juju will be a very good player for many years. I don't think he'll ever be in the elite tier of WR's, but I think he will be a very good producer. 80-90 catches, 1100 yards, 7 TD's type thing. Maybe a bit more if you want to project over the new 17 game schedule, which I guess we will all have to start doing now.

I agree completely that he doesn't need an elite receiver on the outside like AB to get back to solid numbers, last year was such a mess its hard to really take anything from it and use that as a reliable metric (insert better word for what I mean) going forward.

[Yarnith]

My big argument on keeping Juju is just based on his career history. As a NFL WR2 he put up fantasy WR1 numbers. He is good enough to produce at a very high level as the 2nd guy so even if he fails to prove out as a WR1 and someone else does Juju has already shown you he is worth owning. If he leaves via FA to be WR2 for anyone with a good young QB I would still be happy to have him.

[Sriracha]

My big argument on keeping Juju is just based on his career history. As a NFL WR2 he put up fantasy WR1 numbers. He is good enough to produce at a very high level as the 2nd guy so even if he fails to prove out as a WR1 and someone else does Juju has already shown you he is worth owning. If he leaves via FA to be WR2 for anyone with a good young QB I would still be happy to have him.

^

The only issue with this train of logic is that it requires him to enter an offense with both a legitimate WR1 to play across, and a QB good enough to support 2 elite WRs. Off the top of my head that's: ATL, GB, KC, NO, TB with two of those teams QBs dangerously close to retirement age (TB, NO) and 1 of those teams with an aging Alpha WR (ATL); anywhere else it looks like he'll fall into the elite WR2 category in fantasy.

Right now JuJu's the vastly more valuable asset, but if I were in a startup right now I'd much rather have Diontae at his ADP.

[mild]

The only issue with this train of logic is that it requires him to enter an offense with both a legitimate WR1 to play across, and a QB good enough to support 2 elite WRs. Off the top of my head that's: ATL, GB, KC, NO, TB with two of those teams QBs dangerously close to retirement age (TB, NO) and 1 of those teams with an aging Alpha WR (ATL); anywhere else it looks like he'll fall into the elite WR2 category in fantasy.

Further to that, every team you mentioned is salary capped to hell (Saints and Falcons are in fact over it for 2021 already and will be in big trouble) and that's before taking into consideration that:

1. The Salary Cap will probably be lower in 2021 with lost revenue
2. The whole point of this is that Juju will be demanding the bag, which the Steelers do not want to pay (and also cannot)

So realistically, next year, just based on cap space as it stands currently - Juju is most likely:
A Panther, a Jet, a Jaguar, a Patriot, a Bengal, a Raven, a Cardinal...

Or, God Forbid... a Washington.

(Just to twist that knife - the leading bidder for Amari Cooper this off-season was indeed the Washingtons - they are in the market)

EDIT: Happy 1000th post to me! What a downer to do it on haha

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So I did a lot of research here about WR hit rates for 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons, and the single biggest factor outside of an amazing rookie year is having a 2nd or 3rd year breakout of 1k receiving yards, which Juju did. That puts him into one of the best success rate categories you can get. He's got the draft pedigree, he's got the production, he's got the size and athleticism, I would bet on him bouncing back. Maybe he'll never be an elite player but I wouldn't overthink it in terms of him being a valuable dynasty asset.

[Sriracha]

So I did a lot of research here about WR hit rates for 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons, and the single biggest factor outside of an amazing rookie year is having a 2nd or 3rd year breakout of 1k receiving yards, which Juju did. That puts him into one of the best success rate categories you can get. He's got the draft pedigree, he's got the production, he's got the size and athleticism, I would bet on him bouncing back. Maybe he'll never be an elite player but I wouldn't overthink it in terms of him being a valuable dynasty asset.

Yea, I don't think there are many people that don't think he's going to at least be a solid WR2. The trepidation comes from his projection as a WR1, which is fair to doubt at this point.

[Ice]

I went from giddy to concerned. Kinda the opposite of the stereotype, I became less confident in him once he was on my roster.

Can be be a lead WR in the NFL?

I've been trying to get him so long but I need a pep talk now that I have him. Help an owner out, lol.

No pep talk from me. I would sell him ASAP and buy Diontae Johnson at 1/2 the price.

His route running is really good and think he will be the best WR on that team sooner than later. That kid has massive separation skills for such a young player. I would not trade him away for JuJu straight up if I was a NFL GM due to Johnson's obvious upside and based on his separation ability I imagine several GM's would feel the same. He looked great as the season went on.