Benching JuJu Smith-Schuster

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby ArrylT » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:59 am

I know extrapolating is technically a sin of the highest magnitude ;) but it could be noted that

JuJu Smith-Schuster, even after Weeks IV performance, is still on pace to have more yardage than

Deandre Hopkins 2016 - 954
TY Hilton 2017 - 966
(plus several big names from 2018)

as he is on pace for
68 - 1032 - 4

Personally I think this pace has a good shot of being maintained - because its a pace of 65 yards per game - a goal he was already reaching 3 of the past 4 games. So while it is likely there are more subpar games ahead, it also seems as likely there will be games that he more than reaches that goal as well (for example Hopkins had 2 100+ yard games in 2016).

A lot will certainly depend on how many targets he gets per game going forward. 4-5 per game would be troublesome (in the respects of maintaining that pace) but as long as he gets 100-120 targets this season a pace similar to what Hopkins & Hilton achieved seems quite feasible. The next few games could be a determining factor.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby thebeast » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:43 am

ArrylT wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:59 am
I know extrapolating is technically a sin of the highest magnitude ;) but it could be noted that

JuJu Smith-Schuster, even after Weeks IV performance, is still on pace to have more yardage than

Deandre Hopkins 2016 - 954
TY Hilton 2017 - 966
(plus several big names from 2018)

as he is on pace for
68 - 1032 - 4

Personally I think this pace has a good shot of being maintained - because its a pace of 65 yards per game - a goal he was already reaching 3 of the past 4 games. So while it is likely there are more subpar games ahead, it also seems as likely there will be games that he more than reaches that goal as well (for example Hopkins had 2 100+ yard games in 2016).

A lot will certainly depend on how many targets he gets per game going forward. 4-5 per game would be troublesome (in the respects of maintaining that pace) but as long as he gets 100-120 targets this season a pace similar to what Hopkins & Hilton achieved seems quite feasible. The next few games could be a determining factor.
Although I don't like extrapolating, this would pretty much support the point though that there is reason for concern. If that ends up being Juju's total he is a massive disappointment as he had an August ADP of 7 overall.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Valhalla » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:28 am

Goddard wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:47 am
Who was the #2 in Pitt prior to AB? That WR was playing beside one of the all time best WRs as well, but I don't remember anyone putting up numbers like Juju did last year. This whole notion that AB made him who he was seems a little trivial. And to say that has been proven now after 4 games is even sillier. Lets give the guy a whole season, and maybe wait and see how Rudolph develops. I don't think Juju would be putting up the numbers from last year right now even if AB was still on the team with Rudolph quarterbacking.
I'm not going to say JuJu can't be great, because I think he can.

I find myself wondering, though, addressing the underlined above: Was JuJu targeted more from Ben because AB and Ben were butting heads behind the scenes more than in years past? Was JuJu named the team MVP in part because the team was just plain sick of AB at that point? It seems entirely plausible to me that Ben just started trying to find non-AB targets more often as that relationship deteriorated behind closed doors.
What is clear is that Ben's #1 target has always put up big numbers. Ben made Mike Wallace shine, too. JuJu's current production was really reliant on a healthy Roethlisberger, like most other WRs are dependent on the QB staying healthy. To assume JuJu is going to pick up his elite production and this is just a down blip in production is ignoring the arm talent, play extending ability, AND passing volume that Roethlisberger was bringing to the table. JuJu could still put up big numbers if Rudolph comes along well, but I'm not going to presume this is just a down few weeks and he's soon to return to his Roethlisberger linked production.

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Valhalla » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:31 am

themburns wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
I'm not worried about JuJu the football player, I'm worried about the Pittsburgh organization. If Ben moves on after this season for whatever reason, they are in miserable position to replace him. They dont have a 1st and the top free agent QBs outside the unforeseen are Mariota, Winston, Eli manning, or Bridgewater. Maybe they feel the short passing game will speed Rudolph's progression. I'd rather pay that developmental price now than later.
They could trade for Foles... :think:

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Goddard » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:41 am

Valhalla wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:28 am
Goddard wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:47 am
Who was the #2 in Pitt prior to AB? That WR was playing beside one of the all time best WRs as well, but I don't remember anyone putting up numbers like Juju did last year. This whole notion that AB made him who he was seems a little trivial. And to say that has been proven now after 4 games is even sillier. Lets give the guy a whole season, and maybe wait and see how Rudolph develops. I don't think Juju would be putting up the numbers from last year right now even if AB was still on the team with Rudolph quarterbacking.
I'm not going to say JuJu can't be great, because I think he can.

I find myself wondering, though, addressing the underlined above: Was JuJu targeted more from Ben because AB and Ben were butting heads behind the scenes more than in years past? Was JuJu named the team MVP in part because the team was just plain sick of AB at that point? It seems entirely plausible to me that Ben just started trying to find non-AB targets more often as that relationship deteriorated behind closed doors.
What is clear is that Ben's #1 target has always put up big numbers. Ben made Mike Wallace shine, too. JuJu's current production was really reliant on a healthy Roethlisberger, like most other WRs are dependent on the QB staying healthy. To assume JuJu is going to pick up his elite production and this is just a down blip in production is ignoring the arm talent, play extending ability, AND passing volume that Roethlisberger was bringing to the table. JuJu could still put up big numbers if Rudolph comes along well, but I'm not going to presume this is just a down few weeks and he's soon to return to his Roethlisberger linked production.
It's possible that Ben and the team were sick of AB, but he still had more targets than Juju. Maybe Juju received a few extra targets than he would have if AB and Ben got along, but he still had to be productive with those targets, which he was.

Your other argument is difficult to dispute because it's kind of like the chicken or the egg question. Was Juju great last year because Ben threw the ball so much and was a good QB or was it a combination of that and Juju actually being very good. It's going to be difficult to tell if the Steelers game plan continues to be similar to last week's game and if Rudolph doesn't improve. I'm not going to suggest that Ben turned an average or just good WR into a stud at age 21. I'd have to believe that Juju had something to do with and will continue being great once his situation improves.

I just think it's extremely premature for people to start questioning Juju after 4 games in a very tough situation. I'm not sure any of the "stud" WRs would do much better than he's done so far. Lets just let the year play out and see how things go before panicking like some have begun to do.

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby MontrealBen » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:46 am

Just moved Hilton for Juju in a keeper league (keep 5/yr without penalty).

This reminds me *exactly* of Nuk's down year. Half of the people out there kept beating the "bet on talent" drum, while the other half said that his play with a shitty QB was proof that he wasn't ready to step out of Andre Johnson's shadow. I'll still bet on talent allll day.
(1) 10 team standard
Newton, Brady, Jackson
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OBJ, Cooper, Godwin, Green, Boyd, MWilliams, CDavis, Quinn, PWilliams, ABrown
Ertz, Goedert, Burton
(1,2,2,3,3,4)

(2) 12 team, PPR, superflex, TE premium
Mahomes, Daniels, Lock
Cook, Mixon, Carson, Montgomery, Drake, Guice, Lindsay, White, ISmith, Ballage, JWilliams
Cooper, Godwin, Lockett, Moore, JGordon, Jeffrey, MVS, AWilson, Tate
Dissly, Witten
(1-7 + extra 3rd)

(3) 10 team, 0.5 PPR
Newton, Murray, Brissett
Kamara, Conner, RFreeman, Thompson, DaWilliams, DHenderson, ISmith, Hilliard, DeWilliams, Hill, Snell
Hopkins, Woods, MVS, DJax, Harry, Pettis, Ross, Tate, Quinn, Taylor, Ginn, Amendola, Wilson, Hamilton, Reynolds, Pascal, Cain, Pringle
Kelce, Goedert, Knox, Thomas, Watson, Kroft
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby ArrylT » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:47 am

thebeast wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:43 am
ArrylT wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:59 am
I know extrapolating is technically a sin of the highest magnitude ;) but it could be noted that

JuJu Smith-Schuster, even after Weeks IV performance, is still on pace to have more yardage than

Deandre Hopkins 2016 - 954
TY Hilton 2017 - 966
(plus several big names from 2018)

as he is on pace for
68 - 1032 - 4

Personally I think this pace has a good shot of being maintained - because its a pace of 65 yards per game - a goal he was already reaching 3 of the past 4 games. So while it is likely there are more subpar games ahead, it also seems as likely there will be games that he more than reaches that goal as well (for example Hopkins had 2 100+ yard games in 2016).

A lot will certainly depend on how many targets he gets per game going forward. 4-5 per game would be troublesome (in the respects of maintaining that pace) but as long as he gets 100-120 targets this season a pace similar to what Hopkins & Hilton achieved seems quite feasible. The next few games could be a determining factor.
Although I don't like extrapolating, this would pretty much support the point though that there is reason for concern. If that ends up being Juju's total he is a massive disappointment as he had an August ADP of 7 overall.
If owners drafted JJSS in August at 7 knowing that Big Ben was going to get injured AND the Steelers would be off to a rough start AND JJSS was going to get WR3 level targets AND expected him to still be a WR1 then sure, they would be disappointed.

Odds are most owners who had him with a 1st round valuation in the off-season did not project this exact set of circumstances. Or if they're more focused on the redraft or 1+ year approach, then yes they're disappointed. But we've seen what happens when owners react too quickly to a limited sample. So the concern should be for 2019 only, and should be tempered that the worst outcome in 2019 is likely still WR3/Flex.

Except for a very very few players some sort of regression is to be expected, whether to the positive or the negative. This regression is fuelled in part by this set of circumstances, imo. Furthermore, if JJSS can put up a 1000 yard season under these circumstances - remember that is something no WR drafted in the 1st round of any NFL draft since 2014 has done as of yet - except fellow stud Amari Cooper - that is the exact opposite of disappointment for myself. Rather it gives a much better sense of what all the outcomes can be for a full 16 game season.

Context matters.

I've said many times that WR1 seasons tend to be a function of the volume of targets - and when circumstances & situations briefly block a player from having a high enough volume of targets - that it is unlikely a WR1 season will occur that year. But projecting this exact same set of circumstances for a WR every year is folly. Allen Robinson is an extreme case, but even he is rounding back to be in WR1 contention after a couple of injury plagued years. Keenan Allen went through a bad 3 year stretch also. JJSSs past production is very likely to ensure his future will see a return to a higher target volume. It is the when, that should be in question, not whether it will.

Basically those outcomes mentioned above - be it Deandre Hopkins 2017 / TY Hilton 2018 short-term or Keenan Allen 2014-17 or Allen Robinson 2016-18 are likely to be your worst case scenarios (with the assumption JJSS continues to play). That may not be ideal to a contender - but if your team is in a rebuild situation knowing that JJSS will likely return to WR1 conversation should be pretty heartening.

And if he rebounds faster like TY Hilton or Deandre Hopkins, then any owner that gave up & sold low will likely regret it and soon. Hold, or sell high if you need to contend. I have no problems if an owner chooses to bench him, if your goal is to win in 2019. My only advice is to avoid selling low.

Like this:

Trade date: 2019-10-02

Year 2020 round 1 draft pick from Gunslingers
for
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
Year 2020 round 4 draft pick from Too Much Sauce

or this

Trade date: 2019-10-02

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
Year 2020 round 1 draft pick from Clubber Lang's Prediction
for
QB Patrick Mahomes, KCC
Year 2020 round 3 draft pick from The Avengers

(Yes its a 1 QB League)

JJSS for Golladay & a 1st or Watkins & a 1st or Watkins & Gurley, are not imo sell lows.

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/t ... er=9900188
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Goddard » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:56 am

Guys like Hopkins, AB, MT, Adams, and pretty every stud WR always lead the league in targets. And yet, no one says they're target dependent. Actually, people used to say that about Hopkins but have changed their tunes the last couple of years.

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Valhalla » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:05 am

MontrealBen wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:46 am
...Half of the people out there kept beating the "bet on talent" drum, while the other half said that his play with a shitty QB was proof that he wasn't ready to step out of Andre Johnson's shadow. I'll still bet on talent allll day.
I don't think it's an either or of "bet on talent because this kid will shine" or "he's just not elite and was only a product of situation."

I'm in the camp of "he's got some elite level skills and is a great place to invest your chips to grab a very good WR for quite a while, but he's likely going to struggle as his QB struggles this year and it's ok to bench him until a QB starts consistently targeting him" camp.

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby MontrealBen » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:19 am

Valhalla wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:05 am
MontrealBen wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:46 am
...Half of the people out there kept beating the "bet on talent" drum, while the other half said that his play with a shitty QB was proof that he wasn't ready to step out of Andre Johnson's shadow. I'll still bet on talent allll day.
I don't think it's an either or of "bet on talent because this kid will shine" or "he's just not elite and was only a product of situation."

I'm in the camp of "he's got some elite level skills and is a great place to invest your chips to grab a very good WR for quite a while, but he's likely going to struggle as his QB struggles this year and it's ok to bench him until a QB starts consistently targeting him" camp.
Yeah, I can get on board with that. But, man, the "should I bench him" question really brought out a lot of people questioning his skills, not just his situation.
(1) 10 team standard
Newton, Brady, Jackson
Mixon, Bell, Conner, Gordon, DFreeman, McCoy, Barber, Ballage
OBJ, Cooper, Godwin, Green, Boyd, MWilliams, CDavis, Quinn, PWilliams, ABrown
Ertz, Goedert, Burton
(1,2,2,3,3,4)

(2) 12 team, PPR, superflex, TE premium
Mahomes, Daniels, Lock
Cook, Mixon, Carson, Montgomery, Drake, Guice, Lindsay, White, ISmith, Ballage, JWilliams
Cooper, Godwin, Lockett, Moore, JGordon, Jeffrey, MVS, AWilson, Tate
Dissly, Witten
(1-7 + extra 3rd)

(3) 10 team, 0.5 PPR
Newton, Murray, Brissett
Kamara, Conner, RFreeman, Thompson, DaWilliams, DHenderson, ISmith, Hilliard, DeWilliams, Hill, Snell
Hopkins, Woods, MVS, DJax, Harry, Pettis, Ross, Tate, Quinn, Taylor, Ginn, Amendola, Wilson, Hamilton, Reynolds, Pascal, Cain, Pringle
Kelce, Goedert, Knox, Thomas, Watson, Kroft
(1-4 + 3 2nds)

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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:44 am

Valhalla wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:05 am
MontrealBen wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:46 am
...Half of the people out there kept beating the "bet on talent" drum, while the other half said that his play with a shitty QB was proof that he wasn't ready to step out of Andre Johnson's shadow. I'll still bet on talent allll day.
I don't think it's an either or of "bet on talent because this kid will shine" or "he's just not elite and was only a product of situation."

I'm in the camp of "he's got some elite level skills and is a great place to invest your chips to grab a very good WR for quite a while, but he's likely going to struggle as his QB struggles this year and it's ok to bench him until a QB starts consistently targeting him" camp.
The thing is Mason isn't struggling. He's doing exactly what the Steelers are asking him to do. And I think this is a smart move by the Steelers to lean on the run game and shorten the field to ease Mason in. I'm a JuJu owner and I'm not worried about his future. Will he have a down year? Yeah most likely. The Steelers have their bye week in 2 weeks. I'd expect to see the Steelers start opening up the playbook more for Mason coming out of the bye. If that happens that's when we'll really see what the Steelers have in Mason.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby remedy29 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:51 am

Goddard wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:56 am
Guys like Hopkins, AB, MT, Adams, and pretty every stud WR always lead the league in targets. And yet, no one says they're target dependent. Actually, people used to say that about Hopkins but have changed their tunes the last couple of years.
But they are target dependent, just like every other WR1. If they are not target dependent, then why did you leave out Tyler Lockett? He certainly had elite efficiency, elite yards per catch and 10 TDs. Sounds like an elite WR surpassed by no one, except he had low targets.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby JFever » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:02 am

MontrealBen wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:46 am
Just moved Hilton for Juju in a keeper league (keep 5/yr without penalty).

This reminds me *exactly* of Nuk's down year. Half of the people out there kept beating the "bet on talent" drum, while the other half said that his play with a shitty QB was proof that he wasn't ready to step out of Andre Johnson's shadow. I'll still bet on talent allll day.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby thebeast » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:09 am

Interesting this was his NFL scouting notes:

"Smith-Schuster will get dinged for his lack of speed and separation but he reminds me of Anquan Boldin with his strong hands, physical approach and ability to win the combat catches. JuJu is missing some of the speed traits teams want from their WR1, but he could become a high-volume, possession target with the size to win some 50/50 throws down the field. Teams who have a speed merchant at one spot would be wise to take a look at Smith-Schuster as a physical counterpart."

It sounds like exactly the situation he succeeded in last year and could point to trouble going forward. Juju is not Hopkins who had a single down year due to playing with what might actually be the worst QB in NFL history, but proved to be QB proof prior and after that stint with plenty of other replacement-level talent. Anyway, I don't a horse in this fight, I don't own him anywhere and I'm not looking to acquire at this point, but I think there is more here then "hey he'll be fine", I think owners are still in a good spot to get a return on him if they have any concerns.
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Re: Benching JuJu

Postby Goddard » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:12 am

remedy29 wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:51 am
Goddard wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:56 am
Guys like Hopkins, AB, MT, Adams, and pretty every stud WR always lead the league in targets. And yet, no one says they're target dependent. Actually, people used to say that about Hopkins but have changed their tunes the last couple of years.
But they are target dependent, just like every other WR1. If they are not target dependent, then why did you leave out Tyler Lockett? He certainly had elite efficiency, elite yards per catch and 10 TDs. Sounds like an elite WR surpassed by no one, except he had low targets.
I agree they are...I think you're making the same point as I was trying to make. Every great WR is target dependent, but for some reason, when people don't like a WR, they use that as an excuse to lower his value. Like Keenan for number of years. Everyone kept saying he's target dependent and not a real stud. Well, yeah, all the studs are all target dependent.


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