Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:55 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:52 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:07 pm
He's still TE7 without the TDs. He's only on pace for 8, and I note that his TD rate is comparable to last year (1 TD per 14 catches, vs 1 per 17.75 last season), so it's not like his TD production is fluky. Also his YPC is 11.0 compared to 9.3 last season...the biggest reason for his bump is volume. He's on track for 112 catches and 132 targets. Previous highs were 71/88 last season.

Can he maintain 8.25 targets/game and 85% catch rate? Everything else is very sustainable.

E: Also he's got essentially the same air yards per target this season (6.8) as last season (6.7), so not sure it's accurate to say that his production increase has anything to do with being targeted downfield more.
His yards per target is at 9.3 this year, as opposed to 7.5. In the Tennessee game, his yards per target was 11.8.

So, he's been used downfield more for bigger plays and he's getting volume on top of it. Last year in the games where he averaged more than 7 yards per target, his target totals were just: 2,3,4,5,6,2,5. Bit roles.

This year, it's 9,7,11.
I'm talking about air yards per target, which is a reflection of how far down field his targets are. Yards per target is obfuscated by YAC and catch rate.
Austin Hooper had 603 air yards last season. He already has 212 air yards, a fourth of the way into the season. He is absolutely being used downfield more. Watch the Titans game. He was streaking straight downfield, as opposed to dink routes. Combine that with him actually getting volume and it easily explains why he's off to a great start.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Prison_Mike » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:18 pm

I’ll throw Mark Ingram in as a buy

Maybe I’m crazy but I feel like he could give you similar production as DJ or Kerryon for the next 2 years at HALF the price (possibly less than half)

Looks like he won’t get the same volume, but he’s been very efficient
Last edited by Prison_Mike on Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:26 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:55 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:52 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:34 pm


His yards per target is at 9.3 this year, as opposed to 7.5. In the Tennessee game, his yards per target was 11.8.

So, he's been used downfield more for bigger plays and he's getting volume on top of it. Last year in the games where he averaged more than 7 yards per target, his target totals were just: 2,3,4,5,6,2,5. Bit roles.

This year, it's 9,7,11.
I'm talking about air yards per target, which is a reflection of how far down field his targets are. Yards per target is obfuscated by YAC and catch rate.
Austin Hooper had 603 air yards last season. He already has 212 air yards, a fourth of the way into the season. He is absolutely being used downfield more. Watch the Titans game. He was streaking straight downfield, as opposed to dink routes. Combine that with him actually getting volume and it easily explains why he's off to a great start.
And total air yards are obfuscated by volume. He's on pace for ~40% more air yards...but also on pace for ~50% more targets. His air yards per target are virtually identical to last year (6.7 vs 6.8). The vast majority of his increase in production is volume-based...almost all of the rest is increased YAC per reception and slightly increased catch rate and TD rate.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:12 am

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:26 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:55 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:52 pm


I'm talking about air yards per target, which is a reflection of how far down field his targets are. Yards per target is obfuscated by YAC and catch rate.
Austin Hooper had 603 air yards last season. He already has 212 air yards, a fourth of the way into the season. He is absolutely being used downfield more. Watch the Titans game. He was streaking straight downfield, as opposed to dink routes. Combine that with him actually getting volume and it easily explains why he's off to a great start.
And total air yards are obfuscated by volume. He's on pace for ~40% more air yards...but also on pace for ~50% more targets. His air yards per target are virtually identical to last year (6.7 vs 6.8). The vast majority of his increase in production is volume-based...almost all of the rest is increased YAC per reception and slightly increased catch rate and TD rate.
The production increase is because of the volume of being used downfield more. The AYPT are screwed by one game where he wasn't used in that role. Outside of that they've been sending him downfield a lot more. Look at his route charts the past two years and you'll see a lot of horizontal usage with vertical routes sprinkled in. This season it's been completely different. Their new OC is known for using TEs in that role. He did it with OJ Howard the last two seasons and he's doing it with Hooper so far. The Titans game is how they want to use him this season.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:55 am

The numbers just don't bear that out right now, though. At this point it's just your anecdotal opinion of what he did this year vs last based on looking at a couple of route charts from this season, but the actual season-long averages are essentially identical.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby perkinsrooster » Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:51 am

Soooooo, Hooper is a hold? Buy?

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:15 am

I'm ok with those 5 QB as they are all good for fantasy. I wouldn't put strong money on Lamar or Dak there for long though. Would easily buy Baker if his price was dropping

Ekeler is an obvious sell if you were to get even top 20 value for him. He could be great in that offense next year though, but for how long is it just his job?

Sony seems to be low in production but I'd have a hard time putting him any higher than RB30 moving forward and that hurts given his talent.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Factory of Sadness » Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:14 am

I'm puzzled why Engram would be a sell. He's an uber-athletic TE who had a great rookie season and then struggled with niggling injuries. The only reason people weren't taking him early is because we have short memories and are always chasing the new shiny precious. Hooper is interesting because he will clearly have a big year this year, but he's so average in every way that TE would be an easy way for the Falcons to make their passing game more explosive. Buy if you think the situation is too tempting, but do so knowing that he's no great shakes as a player and is succeeding because of his role in the Offense.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:47 am

I think the case for Engram as a sell high is he'll be force fed targets given the WR depth chart but after this year, target competition will limit his opportunities.

Hooper is a get as long as his cost doesn't outweigh his short term production value.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
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League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 R/W, 1 R/T, 1 Def

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Ice » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:20 am

Pullo Vision wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:47 am
I think the case for Engram as a sell high is he'll be force fed targets given the WR depth chart but after this year, target competition will limit his opportunities.

Hooper is a get as long as his cost doesn't outweigh his short term production value.
Not sure I am buying short term production on Hooper but time will tell. He has gotten much better every year.

Receptions by year. 19,49,71. 71 last year was 4th in receptions for a TE I think. This year he already has 28 receptions and his yards are already over 45% of his entire year last year. He is on a target pace of way over 100. (132)

Looks like a serious weapon with chemistry and production to get continued looks.

Think he is a great buy as his name is lower than many others but his production is really sneaky good.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Weknownothing86 » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:43 am

What is Will Dissly?
If i have to explain my screen name to you than you dont understand Fantasy Football.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Ice » Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:20 am

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:43 am
What is Will Dissly?
He is a TE with a funny name!

I consider him more of a JAG that is TD dependent but has match up upside some weeks but targets many weeks will be tough to come by.

Could be a top 10 TE by years end due to TD's.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:54 am

Ice wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:20 am
Weknownothing86 wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:43 am
What is Will Dissly?
He is a TE with a funny name!

I consider him more of a JAG that is TD dependent but has match up upside some weeks but targets many weeks will be tough to come by.

Could be a top 10 TE by years end due to TD's.
It's not accurate to call him TD dependent. He would be TE12 right now if you take away the 24 points from TDs. He has 3 straight games with 5+ catches and 50+ yards. His last 3 weeks would still have been 10, 11.2 and 12.7 without TDs, which would be TE9 in that span.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby azthecrow » Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:04 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:50 pm
I think the most obvious sell out of anybody in the top 5 would be Ekeler. Once Gordon comes back he will still hold some flex appeal, but no way he finishes in the top 5.

I would buy Kerryon Johnson as he has had 20+ touches the last 2 weeks. If he sees that every week, he will be a high end RB2 by volume alone.
I’m buying Kerryon too. That offense is starting to click and he’s getting the carries. He just needs to stay healthy.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Ice » Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:47 am

hoos89 wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:54 am
Ice wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:20 am
Weknownothing86 wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:43 am
What is Will Dissly?
He is a TE with a funny name!

I consider him more of a JAG that is TD dependent but has match up upside some weeks but targets many weeks will be tough to come by.

Could be a top 10 TE by years end due to TD's.
It's not accurate to call him TD dependent. He would be TE12 right now if you take away the 24 points from TDs. He has 3 straight games with 5+ catches and 50+ yards. His last 3 weeks would still have been 10, 11.2 and 12.7 without TDs, which would be TE9 in that span.
Like I said, he could end up in the top 10 but the reality is outside the top 5 or 6 all TE's fall into the JAG territory. The position is just too inconsistent based on how most teams utilize TE's.


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