Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

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Cameron Giles
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Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:37 pm

What are you buying and selling so far a quarter of the way through the season? There's a game tonight, but just looking through some of the current fantasy standings (PPR)

Top 5 QB's:
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Russell Wilson
Dak Prescott
Carson Wentz

Notable:
QB7 - Jacoby Brissett
QB16 - Aaron Rodgers
QB17 - Jared Goff
QB23 - Baker Mayfield

Top 5 RB's:
Christian McCaffrey
Austin Ekeler
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Alvin Kamara

Notable:
RB8 - Derrick Henry
RB20 - Kerryon Johnson
RB24 - Devonta Freeman
RB47 - Sony Michel

Top 5 WR's:
Keenan Allen
Cooper Kupp
Chris Godwin
Mike Evans
Julio Jones

Notable:
WR10 - DJ Chark
WR12 - Emmanuel Sanders
WR23 - Odell Beckham
WR38 - Adam Thielen
WR61 - Stefon Diggs

Top 5 TE's:
Evan Engram
Austin Hooper
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
Darren Waller

Notable:
TE6 - Will Dissly
TE8 - Zach Ertz
TE28 - OJ Howard
TE51 - Kyle Rudolph

Rookies:
QB14 - Gardner Minshew
QB15 - Kyler Murray
RB19 - Josh Jacobs
WR20 - Marquise Brown
WR21 - Terry McLaurin
RB28 - David Montgomery
RB41 - Miles Sanders
WR49 - Preston Williams
WR50 - DK Metcalf
WR51 - Mecole Hardman
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

perkinsrooster
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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby perkinsrooster » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm

Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:48 pm

perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm
Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.
Something is clicking. Falcons passing game is great for fantasy right now since they have 0 run game and they've been playing from behind a bunch. So far, Julio and Hooper have been the beneficiaries. Ridley had one big game, but has been quiet in the other three.

Regression is likely though. Hooper is currently on pace for 112/1228/8.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:10 pm

perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm
Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.
He was TE6 last season, so it's not like he's coming out of nowhere.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:18 pm

I think Marquise Brown is a great buy right now.

Evan Engram is a great sell.

Kittle is a buy.
TEAM A - 12 teams (2018 champ, 2017 R/U)
BREES, Jimmy G, Rivers, Dalton
COOK/JACOBS/GURLEY, Shady, AP, Gio, Gallman, Walton, Ollison, D Washington, M Davis, Scarlett, Foreman, Ware, Rodney A
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Edelman, Alshon, Sammy, P Campbell, Wims, Dez, Hardy
KITTLE, OJ Howard, Herndon, J Graham, Eifert
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring (1st year league, tanking this year to build through 2020 draft)
DARNOLD, Carr, Rosen, Eli, Tyrod
KAMARA/MIXON, Hines, L Miller, J Williams
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/HOLLYWOOD, Coutee, Latimer
ANDREWS/NJOKU, Ian Thomas, James O
-
Danielle Hunter, Ngakoue, and then a bunch of maybes for IDP

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby perkinsrooster » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:41 pm

Why is Engram a sell. Seems like the offence is moving in the right direction and he's a big piece.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby perkinsrooster » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:43 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:10 pm
perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm
Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.
He was TE6 last season, so it's not like he's coming out of nowhere.
True but he's averaging 5 more ppr points per game compared to last year. I'm didn't see many people predicting that he would be in the top tier of TE's.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:56 pm

perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:43 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:10 pm
perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm
Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.
He was TE6 last season, so it's not like he's coming out of nowhere.
True but he's averaging 5 more ppr points per game compared to last year. I'm didn't see many people predicting that he would be in the top tier of TE's.
He already has 2 TD's this season, which is 2 off his season high.

Biggest difference I've noticed: Atlanta is using Hooper downfield more instead of short-area routes. This is his route chart from against the Titans. It's been similar to the other three games:

Image

In prior seasons, they didn't give him as many opportunities vertically. Hooper is interesting. He's improved each season and this could be the 4th year breakout that the good TE's usually have. He's currently out-targeting Ridley and usually has favorable matchups because so much attention is paid to Julio, Ridley, and Sanu.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:07 pm

He's still TE7 without the TDs. He's only on pace for 8, and I note that his TD rate is comparable to last year (1 TD per 14 catches, vs 1 per 17.75 last season), so it's not like his TD production is fluky. Also his YPC is 11.0 compared to 9.3 last season...the biggest reason for his bump is volume. He's on track for 112 catches and 132 targets. Previous highs were 71/88 last season.

Can he maintain 8.25 targets/game and 85% catch rate? Everything else is very sustainable.

E: Also he's got essentially the same air yards per target this season (6.8) as last season (6.7), so not sure it's accurate to say that his production increase has anything to do with being targeted downfield more.
Last edited by hoos89 on Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby ericanadian » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:10 pm

perkinsrooster wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:42 pm
Is Hooper a sell high, or is this real? It seems like he just keeps getting better and better.
It’s somewhat real in this system. Koetter has some positive history with TE production,
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee, Washington, Di. Johnson
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Cox
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds, Walker
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:34 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:07 pm
He's still TE7 without the TDs. He's only on pace for 8, and I note that his TD rate is comparable to last year (1 TD per 14 catches, vs 1 per 17.75 last season), so it's not like his TD production is fluky. Also his YPC is 11.0 compared to 9.3 last season...the biggest reason for his bump is volume. He's on track for 112 catches and 132 targets. Previous highs were 71/88 last season.

Can he maintain 8.25 targets/game and 85% catch rate? Everything else is very sustainable.

E: Also he's got essentially the same air yards per target this season (6.8) as last season (6.7), so not sure it's accurate to say that his production increase has anything to do with being targeted downfield more.
His yards per target is at 9.3 this year, as opposed to 7.5. In the Tennessee game, his yards per target was 11.8.

So, he's been used downfield more for bigger plays and he's getting volume on top of it. Last year in the games where he averaged more than 7 yards per target, his target totals were just: 2,3,4,5,6,2,5. Bit roles.

This year, it's 9,7,11.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:50 pm

I think the most obvious sell out of anybody in the top 5 would be Ekeler. Once Gordon comes back he will still hold some flex appeal, but no way he finishes in the top 5.

I would buy Kerryon Johnson as he has had 20+ touches the last 2 weeks. If he sees that every week, he will be a high end RB2 by volume alone.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Littleton
DB: Bell

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby hoos89 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:52 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:07 pm
He's still TE7 without the TDs. He's only on pace for 8, and I note that his TD rate is comparable to last year (1 TD per 14 catches, vs 1 per 17.75 last season), so it's not like his TD production is fluky. Also his YPC is 11.0 compared to 9.3 last season...the biggest reason for his bump is volume. He's on track for 112 catches and 132 targets. Previous highs were 71/88 last season.

Can he maintain 8.25 targets/game and 85% catch rate? Everything else is very sustainable.

E: Also he's got essentially the same air yards per target this season (6.8) as last season (6.7), so not sure it's accurate to say that his production increase has anything to do with being targeted downfield more.
His yards per target is at 9.3 this year, as opposed to 7.5. In the Tennessee game, his yards per target was 11.8.

So, he's been used downfield more for bigger plays and he's getting volume on top of it. Last year in the games where he averaged more than 7 yards per target, his target totals were just: 2,3,4,5,6,2,5. Bit roles.

This year, it's 9,7,11.
I'm talking about air yards per target, which is a reflection of how far down field his targets are. Yards per target is obfuscated by YAC and catch rate.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby pvillebiker » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:38 pm

Jordan Howard - still cheap as dirt. Minimally several good flex plays in him this year. Maybe more... lots more.

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Re: Buy or Sell: Week 1-4 Top-5 PPR Rankings

Postby jomaed » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:52 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:50 pm
I think the most obvious sell out of anybody in the top 5 would be Ekeler. Once Gordon comes back he will still hold some flex appeal, but no way he finishes in the top 5.

I would buy Kerryon Johnson as he has had 20+ touches the last 2 weeks. If he sees that every week, he will be a high end RB2 by volume alone.
Assuming the sell window already closed. Is he more of a hold now? Not sure you'll get whats he worth or what he could be worth next year.


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