2019 Season Quarter 1 Rookie RB Observations

[MEuRaH]

I'll try to update this after week 4 happens, but my schedule is limited so I'm starting this now. My original projections for long-term success can be seen here.

There are only FOUR RBs that I can safely evaluate at this point in the season. That's gotta be a new low for the first quarter of any season in the NFL. Below is my year 1 projected RBs in the order in which I projected them prior to the season starting.

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Josh Jacobs -- Amazing. He's performing at a higher level than I anticipated. I watched all of his carries and found ZERO mistakes. I watched closely with a magnifying glass. He runs hard, he runs smart, he can catch, he can pass block.... I love this kid. The major problem is game script and poor guard play. The number of times he was brought down by an interior lineman is ridiculous. The Raiders have been playing "catch up" for two of their three games, and that's why Jacobs seems to have been ineffective so far. The Raiders also seem to prefer Jalen Richard far too often. I don't get that. Jacobs was far superior on all plays that he touched the ball. He has great power, vision, and speed. The Raiders need to find a way to run the offense through him, not Carr. This dude is like 75% Zeke-similar in the way he plays. When the Raiders start improving, so will Jacobs.

Miles Sanders -- Here's the kid I thought would be the best of the bunch eventually. The good news is that I still think he's the most-talented RB on this list. He had more moves, more wiggle, and better vision than any RB on this list. He can create more space at the LOS than the other three guys, so that's my one huge positive. My huge negative is that he's made a mistake on 50% of his carries so far this year. 50%! I said that if he won the job in Philly that he'd be in contention for the #1 spot this season. Well he won the job, and he's done poorly so far. He's deviated from the design of the run far too many times. He's tried to make a move when he didn't have to make a move. He tried to stutter-step on a play that didn't require a stutter-step (wth?), and he's had poor anticipation on a number of runs that has made me drop my head in shame. I'm not even counting the fumbles! GOOD GOD MAN, HANG ONTO THE BALL! On one fumble, he clearly had the outside-left free of defenders, but he was trying to outsmart the defense by doing a spin-move to get back inside. By doing this, he put the ball CLOSER TO THE DEFENSE, and it got knocked out in the process. Sanders, come on guy. This is the NFL, not college. Get what is expected of you in a play and get out. The good news is that the talent is definitely still there, and all of these errors can be corrected through good coaching. The other sad fact is that the best run blocking came in week 4, and Jordan Howard was the recipient. Had Sanders not had fumbling issues, I think we would have seen a 150 yard 3TD performance for Sanders last week. Oh well.

David Montgomery -- I said in the early going that I have no idea how this RB will do in his career or year one. He was single-handedly the hardest RB to evaluate because he appeared to be a zone runner in a power system, and the two pieces just didn't go together. Now he finds himself with the Bears running in the exact system he was built for, and it's not good so far. He's made a mistake on 67% of his plays. He's taking the inside hole on an outside zone, he's deviating from his lead blocker to create his own run, and he's showing hesitation on a timing play when he's supposed to anticipate holes opening up. He needs more coaching and more time. The percentage of mistakes is about as high as I can remember for any rookie RB this early into the season. The good news is that I don't think he's ever really had a chance to be this kind of back in this system before, and therefore he's having some growing pains. He'll improve this season with good coaching and practice, but I don't think he'll grow too much this season. Selling Montgomery this year would be selling low on him. He's got a long way to go.

Devin Singletary -- His value went way up after McCoy was traded. I was excited for this kid, and there are a few good runs that prove he has great talent. HOWEVER... nearly all of his carries have been sweeps and tosses, if not all. I'm a little alarmed by this. Gore is getting all sorts of carries in this offense, including all of the inside runs, while Singletary is only given the safe options outside. In this regard, the coaching staff is doing a great job setting him up for success in the early going, as he's made 0 mistakes that I can see, but he's also had fewer chances to make a mistake. When you run outside and you have 2 lead blockers, just follow your blocks until you can't anymore. Rather easy, really. He's not being asked to find a hole, use stop-and-go technique, read his blocks, etc. Literally any RB in the NFL can do what has been asked of Sing up until this point, so I don't know if he should really get any praise for this. He did make a nifty move on a lead play going off-tackle left that was gapped by a linebacker. Singletary did a great jump cut outside with no hesitation or time lost and gained an extra 8-10 yards. Impressive move and vision on that one play. Other than this... not much to be excited about just yet.

** It's important to note that these 4 guys are the only guys I had listed as "sure things" in my final report. These were the only guys I expected to carry some sort of long-term value in the long run when I made my final analysis in May. So far, I'm liking my analysis. Anyone who makes it to this list above is worth holding long term.

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Quick Blurbs on the other RBs I mentioned in my final report

Flex Plays:

Damien Harris -- I heard somewhere that Michel has one broken tackle so far this season. Ouch. Harris hasn't done much yet, and I don't know if he ever will, but he might get some looks earlier than expected if Michel can't get the job done. Again, I don't think Harris will be any better than a flex play for his entire career.

Justice Hill -- The pre-season made me think I was wrong about this kid. I think he's a good buy low. I'm going to raise his ceiling to an RB2, but not confidently. I'd still put my money on a flex if I was forced to do it, though not as confidently. However, if there was any other rookie RB that could join the top 4 listed above and I was forced to choose who that was, this would be the guy.

Dart Throws:

Myles Gaskin -- I spelled his name wrong and nobody ever corrected me. Anyway, I think we might see this kid sometime this season. He's one of my favorite buy-lows, maybe even a waiver wire add. What do the Dolphins have to lose by giving him some work eventually? Still a great dart throw, but only to flip for future profit, not as a long term stash.

Bryce Love -- Nothing changed here. Gotta wait until next year. Guice is injured yet again, so that helps Love's value go up. Not saying he'll return and be awesome, just a good dart throw to own if you're looking for a player to stash.

Alex Barnes -- Nope, he's done. I've officially cut him. If he couldn't make it with the Titans and their weak RB squad, he can't make it anywhere... although I do question the ability of the Titans to evaluate RBs properly...

Karan Higdon -- Still a hold for me. He's on the practice squad. I like what I saw in preseason play. I'm hoping he'll get on the active roster at some point this season. He's one injury away from that happening. He's a flip for profit player as well.

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THE REST

Dexter Williams -- He wouldn't get any mention if it weren't for Jamaal Williams getting hurt in Green Bay. Dexter is an over-confident fast dude. He rubs me the wrong way. I don't like him at all, but it only takes one good game to make everyone think he's something special, so if he breaks off 2-3 long runs next week, sell him for a profit and be happy with it. Straight-line runners almost never succeed in the NFL (Chris Johnson is literally the only exception to the rule).

Darrell Henderson -- DH is on a team that specifically NEEDS RBs to step up. He has 1 rush for 0 yards in 3 games. That should be a warning to everyone who owns shares of this kid. He's done less than I expected up to this point, but I'm also not shocked either. I didn't even list him in my final report. That's how low I am on this kid. I just don't think he'll ever be smart enough to take the field and share the carries. I think we'll see more of him eventually, but I wouldn't put a lot of faith in him as a player.

Darwin Thompson -- This is not an every down back. He's a satellite back. Andy Reid doesn't really use this position in his offenses. Reid is the most under-rated coach in the NFL, so maybe we'll see some Thompson usage later on, but he's not the kind of guy I'd be building my team around. If Thompson was in a different system (Philly, Saints, Chargers) I think we'd see more success.

Alexander Mattison -- Cook handcuff that's worth owning. I don't think he's anything more than a "get what you give" type of RB, but that's good enough in the Vikings system. If you own him and you don't own Cook, either find a way to get Cook or sell him to the Cook owner while you can.

Tony Pollard -- See Mattison. Must own handcuff. Blah blah blah. Sell to the Zeke owner.

Why do people still own Ozigbo? Drop that loser already.

[Phaded]

Why the Raiders won't involve Jacobs in the pass game more than they are is specifically maddening.

I must admit - it's nice to see you acknowledge that Sanders has basically sucked, since he is your boy. He seems stuck in the college mindset where he was frequently one of the fastest guys on the field and could just fake-out everyone / out-run them, that doesn't cut it in the NFL.

[ArrylT]

While I do not agree with everything written, I would just like to say, as always, I much appreciate it when people go into such depth & analysis with their posts on players, well most of them anyways. The comment on Ozigbo did make me laugh.

[MEuRaH]

Why the Raiders won't involve Jacobs in the pass game more than they are is specifically maddening.

I must admit - it's nice to see you acknowledge that Sanders has basically sucked, since he is your boy. He seems stuck in the college mindset where he was frequently one of the fastest guys on the field and could just fake-out everyone / out-run them, that doesn't cut it in the NFL.

The Jacobs thing is frustrating for sure. I'm wondering how good he can really be, and if I should be buying low on him right now.

The Sanders thing... I didn't see this happening. I don't know if it's a lack of understanding of the offense, or if he's doubting his instincts (which are developed in practice), or what it is. It's similar to what Montgomery is doing, and there's plenty of time to correct it. This happens quite a bit in rookie seasons, but not to this extent.

The fact that Jacobs hasn't had a single error up to this point... wow. Just wow. He looks amazing.

While I do not agree with everything written, I would just like to say, as always, I much appreciate it when people go into such depth & analysis with their posts on players, well most of them anyways. The comment on Ozigbo did make me laugh.

Is there a specific player? Are you higher or lower on somebody I mentioned?

[ArrylT]

While I do not agree with everything written, I would just like to say, as always, I much appreciate it when people go into such depth & analysis with their posts on players, well most of them anyways. The comment on Ozigbo did make me laugh.

Is there a specific player? Are you higher or lower on somebody I mentioned?

Its probably more a stylistic thing than anything. For example, I can see Damien Harris being an RB2, but whether or not he gets the opportunity - we shall see - so he could likely only have flex appeal for his career. I think it is too soon to tell - but that will of course make the assumption he gets a 2nd contract outside of NE, or that the Patriots do not keep doing the same ole use whichever RB best fits that weeks game plan *shrugs*

I probably could have written my post a little better - to me "do not agree" does not mean the same as disagree, but then that depends on which definition of disagree one uses. IE this is your take & how you see things, and I see things perhaps a little differently, but that does not mean I am dissenting with your opinion. Moreso I recognize and respect said opinion, but it does not match my opinion 100%.

[bjd5211]

So I've read several of your posts on Sanders and Montgomery and curious what you qualify as a mistake?

[MEuRaH]

While I do not agree with everything written, I would just like to say, as always, I much appreciate it when people go into such depth & analysis with their posts on players, well most of them anyways. The comment on Ozigbo did make me laugh.

Is there a specific player? Are you higher or lower on somebody I mentioned?

Its probably more a stylistic thing than anything. For example, I can see Damien Harris being an RB2, but whether or not he gets the opportunity - we shall see - so he could likely only have flex appeal for his career. I think it is too soon to tell - but that will of course make the assumption he gets a 2nd contract outside of NE, or that the Patriots do not keep doing the same ole use whichever RB best fits that weeks game plan *shrugs*

I probably could have written my post a little better - to me "do not agree" does not mean the same as disagree, but then that depends on which definition of disagree one uses. IE this is your take & how you see things, and I see things perhaps a little differently, but that does not mean I am dissenting with your opinion. Moreso I recognize and respect said opinion, but it does not match my opinion 100%.

Yeah I wasn't taking anything personal, I was just curious where the disagreement lied. Nobody is right or wrong.

Harris could be anything. The coaching in New England is amazing year in year out. But the Patriots also have a history of RB volatility, and I just don't trust it. Mix that with my pre-draft analysis, and that's where I get my conclusion.

Do you remember Jonas Gray? In week 4 2014 he ran for a 200 yard 4 touchdown game for the Patriots. Everyone was tripping over themselves to acquire this kid. And then he disappeared, like so many other Patriots RBs before him. That's just one of many reasons why I don't trust the Pats.

[MEuRaH]

So I've read several of your posts on Sanders and Montgomery and curious what you qualify as a mistake?

Oh, good point. Maybe I'll pull one up in a gif format.

EDIT: I was looking for the outside zone I saw earlier. Either Montgomery or Sanders was running left and the outside line was there. The purpose of the play is to get the RB all the way outside so they can use their speed and open field to get yards. Instead they cut back inside through an early lane for a 4 yard pickup. Had they ran the play properly, it would have been a 10 yard gain. Even though it was a positive play in the long run, it was ultimately a mistake because they ran it incorrectly.

I was having a hard time finding the play and accidentally ran into the video below, which does an excellent job of showing a huge mistake that Montgomery made vs the Broncos. He didn't do this just once either, it happened several times over the first three weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAP1g9eZpdo


Whoever makes these videos is awesome. Such a great tool. Sanders made the same kind of mistakes. Hesitation, going against instincts, and relying on ability rather than skill.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I won't argue that Barnes isn't a cut, but I disagree that the Titans backfield is weak. They have Henry, Lewis (established versatile vet) and a fullback who probably also plays special teams. There just wasn't a need for Barnes on the squad.

[FantasyFreak]

The Raiders played the first 2 games with backup guards, and the 3rd game with 1. Hopefully when Gabe Jackson comes back the guard play will improve for Jacobs. Jacobs was also ill vs the Vikings, and couldn't manage a full work load.

[FantasyFreak]

The way Jacobs ran today should only further distance himself from the other backs in this class. He ran like a vet.

[Phaded]

Meanwhile still only 2 targets. Ugh.

[hoos89]

Meanwhile still only 2 targets. Ugh.

And where's this Jacobs QB package we heard about?

[purplepride28]

Is there a specific player? Are you higher or lower on somebody I mentioned?

Its probably more a stylistic thing than anything. For example, I can see Damien Harris being an RB2, but whether or not he gets the opportunity - we shall see - so he could likely only have flex appeal for his career. I think it is too soon to tell - but that will of course make the assumption he gets a 2nd contract outside of NE, or that the Patriots do not keep doing the same ole use whichever RB best fits that weeks game plan *shrugs*

I probably could have written my post a little better - to me "do not agree" does not mean the same as disagree, but then that depends on which definition of disagree one uses. IE this is your take & how you see things, and I see things perhaps a little differently, but that does not mean I am dissenting with your opinion. Moreso I recognize and respect said opinion, but it does not match my opinion 100%.

Yeah I wasn't taking anything personal, I was just curious where the disagreement lied. Nobody is right or wrong.

Harris could be anything. The coaching in New England is amazing year in year out. But the Patriots also have a history of RB volatility, and I just don't trust it. Mix that with my pre-draft analysis, and that's where I get my conclusion.

Do you remember Jonas Gray? In week 4 2014 he ran for a 200 yard 4 touchdown game for the Patriots. Everyone was tripping over themselves to acquire this kid. And then he disappeared, like so many other Patriots RBs before him. That's just one of many reasons why I don't trust the Pats.

Correct me if I’m wrong but was t Jonas gray cut a few days after that game? Something about bill saying his head got to big after that game and showed up to one of the meetings late. Then cut.

[MEuRaH]

Do you remember Jonas Gray? In week 4 2014 he ran for a 200 yard 4 touchdown game for the Patriots. Everyone was tripping over themselves to acquire this kid. And then he disappeared, like so many other Patriots RBs before him. That's just one of many reasons why I don't trust the Pats.

Correct me if I’m wrong but was t Jonas gray cut a few days after that game? Something about bill saying his head got to big after that game and showed up to one of the meetings late. Then cut.

Correct, but if he really was this good, he wouldn't have been released. He was never that good to begin with, the Patriots knew that, and the NFL knew that because he never amounted to anything.