A-Fraud- Rodgers and the GB offense

[blemly]

Seeing as he was hurt for more than half of 2017 and was playing at an extremely high level for the 6 and change games he did play, this is just a strawman way of saying he didn't have a great 2018.

Rodgers for a long time was the only consistent high performing qb.. he is going to have some down time here and there. Most of these QBs ranked higher than him have had a flash and otherwise have been exceedingly mediocre.

All that said, there is nothing around him, the team is not good and Lafleur is looking to be quite bad.

Is it possible he has regressed? Sure, but let's not act like there's many QBs better than him.

Exactly. And his “poor” 2018 is 4400 yards, 25 TDs and 2 INTs. Allison and MVS are not special, but they aren’t awful either. And Adams is a WR1. Rodgers is fine.

Well yeah. It's not 1995. Here in 2019 that season stinks for fantasy. You can get Phillip Rivers for a 3rd round pick and he has out-done that season 10 of the last 11 years (!!).

Rivers throws 4-10x that amount of INTs and that is a super down year for Rodgers. Also, please find me one trade example of where you have traded for Rivers for a 3rd rounder. You must be talking about non-SF leagues, which makes QB all but meaningless.

[Vcize]

Exactly. And his “poor” 2018 is 4400 yards, 25 TDs and 2 INTs. Allison and MVS are not special, but they aren’t awful either. And Adams is a WR1. Rodgers is fine.

Well yeah. It's not 1995. Here in 2019 that season stinks for fantasy. You can get Phillip Rivers for a 3rd round pick and he has out-done that season 10 of the last 11 years (!!).

Rivers throws 4-10x that amount of INTs and that is a super down year for Rodgers. Also, please find me one trade example of where you have traded for Rivers for a 3rd rounder. You must be talking about non-SF leagues, which makes QB all but meaningless.

Unless your name is Aaron Rodgers and then people still treat you like a meaningful asset even though you're not.

Who cares about INTs? We are talking about fantasy points here. Rivers scored more fantasy points than that 10 out of the last 11 years.

That may have been a "super down" year for Rodgers when he was 28. It's basically been 2 of the last 4 years for him at this point (boring 3800/31 in 2015) and unless he turns it around bigtime this year we're headed towards 3 out of 5 with one of the other two being a pass due to injury.

[ArrylT]

Well yeah. It's not 1995. Here in 2019 that season stinks for fantasy. You can get Phillip Rivers for a 3rd round pick and he has out-done that season 10 of the last 11 years (!!).

Rivers throws 4-10x that amount of INTs and that is a super down year for Rodgers. Also, please find me one trade example of where you have traded for Rivers for a 3rd rounder. You must be talking about non-SF leagues, which makes QB all but meaningless.

Unless your name is Aaron Rodgers and then people still treat you like a meaningful asset even though you're not.

Who cares about INTs? We are talking about fantasy points here. Rivers scored more fantasy points than that 10 out of the last 11 years.

That may have been a "super down" year for Rodgers when he was 28. It's basically been 2 of the last 4 years for him at this point (boring 3800/31 in 2015) and unless he turns it around bigtime this year we're headed towards 3 out of 5 with one of the other two being a pass due to injury.

I guess that will depend on the scoring format you're in.

I can tell you that in 2018 in FFPC Scoring format (I believe thats 4pts TD & -1 INT) Aaron Rodgers scored 359 points and was QB7.

I can also tell you that Philips Rivers has not scored 359 points in FFPC scoring once in the past 10 years.

332.10 - 2018
327.55 - 2017
334.00 - 2016
327.60 - 2015
330.70 - 2014
347.20 - 2013
273.35 - 2012
328.80 - 2011
347.70 - 2010
326.70 - 2009
333.85 - 2008

So as we can see Rivers never reached Aaron Rodgers point total in 2018 using FFPC scoring once in the past 11 years.

In a format where TDs count as 6pts and INTs as -2 Aaron Rodgers scored 401.00 points in 2018 while over the past 11 years Rivers did

382.10 - 18
371.55 - 17
369.00 - 16
366.60 - 15
370.70 - 14
396.20 - 13
310.35 - 12
362.80 - 11
394.70 - 10
373.70 - 09
390.85 - 08

I unfortunately do not have the time or inclination to check every single QB scoring format - but those are 2 of the more popular ones and never in 11 years did Rivers best season beat out Aaron Rodgers 2018.

Also Rodgers performance tonight stat wise is good enough for a QB1 performance in any of Weeks 1 2 or 3.

[Vcize]

Rivers throws 4-10x that amount of INTs and that is a super down year for Rodgers. Also, please find me one trade example of where you have traded for Rivers for a 3rd rounder. You must be talking about non-SF leagues, which makes QB all but meaningless.

Unless your name is Aaron Rodgers and then people still treat you like a meaningful asset even though you're not.

Who cares about INTs? We are talking about fantasy points here. Rivers scored more fantasy points than that 10 out of the last 11 years.

That may have been a "super down" year for Rodgers when he was 28. It's basically been 2 of the last 4 years for him at this point (boring 3800/31 in 2015) and unless he turns it around bigtime this year we're headed towards 3 out of 5 with one of the other two being a pass due to injury.

I guess that will depend on the scoring format you're in.

I can tell you that in 2018 in FFPC Scoring format (I believe thats 4pts TD & -1 INT) Aaron Rodgers scored 359 points and was QB7.

I can also tell you that Philips Rivers has not scored 359 points in FFPC scoring once in the past 10 years.

332.10 - 2018
327.55 - 2017
334.00 - 2016
327.60 - 2015
330.70 - 2014
347.20 - 2013
273.35 - 2012
328.80 - 2011
347.70 - 2010
326.70 - 2009
333.85 - 2008

So as we can see Rivers never reached Aaron Rodgers point total in 2018 using FFPC scoring once in the past 11 years.

In a format where TDs count as 6pts and INTs as -2 Aaron Rodgers scored 401.00 points in 2018 while over the past 11 years Rivers did

382.10 - 18
371.55 - 17
369.00 - 16
366.60 - 15
370.70 - 14
396.20 - 13
310.35 - 12
362.80 - 11
394.70 - 10
373.70 - 09
390.85 - 08

I unfortunately do not have the time or inclination to check every single QB scoring format - but those are 2 of the more popular ones and never in 11 years did Rivers best season beat out Aaron Rodgers 2018.

Ah you're right, I forgot to add in his rushing numbers from that year when calculating his fantasy numbers. My mistake.

With my scoring system which I think is pretty standard (25 yds/pt passing, 4 point pass TDs) Rodgers was at 312 in 2018 counting his rushing numbers, which is a bit ahead of Rivers in most of the last decade (about 1ppg).

Also Rodgers performance tonight stat wise is good enough for a QB1 performance in any of Weeks 1 2 or 3.

Sure, nice night. But is that the barometer here? Merely putting up QB1 numbers? There are no shortage of QBs that can put up QB1 numbers. But we're talking about a guy who is still treated as more than a forgettable jammed into the pack quarterback in 1qb leagues, which he really hasn't been for quite some time. There are a whole bunch of guys who are a whole lot cheaper who can just as reliably put up similar or better numbers and are a whole lot younger to boot.

[Sriracha]

Unless your name is Aaron Rodgers and then people still treat you like a meaningful asset even though you're not.

Who cares about INTs? We are talking about fantasy points here. Rivers scored more fantasy points than that 10 out of the last 11 years.

That may have been a "super down" year for Rodgers when he was 28. It's basically been 2 of the last 4 years for him at this point (boring 3800/31 in 2015) and unless he turns it around bigtime this year we're headed towards 3 out of 5 with one of the other two being a pass due to injury.

I guess that will depend on the scoring format you're in.

I can tell you that in 2018 in FFPC Scoring format (I believe thats 4pts TD & -1 INT) Aaron Rodgers scored 359 points and was QB7.

I can also tell you that Philips Rivers has not scored 359 points in FFPC scoring once in the past 10 years.

332.10 - 2018
327.55 - 2017
334.00 - 2016
327.60 - 2015
330.70 - 2014
347.20 - 2013
273.35 - 2012
328.80 - 2011
347.70 - 2010
326.70 - 2009
333.85 - 2008

So as we can see Rivers never reached Aaron Rodgers point total in 2018 using FFPC scoring once in the past 11 years.

In a format where TDs count as 6pts and INTs as -2 Aaron Rodgers scored 401.00 points in 2018 while over the past 11 years Rivers did

382.10 - 18
371.55 - 17
369.00 - 16
366.60 - 15
370.70 - 14
396.20 - 13
310.35 - 12
362.80 - 11
394.70 - 10
373.70 - 09
390.85 - 08

I unfortunately do not have the time or inclination to check every single QB scoring format - but those are 2 of the more popular ones and never in 11 years did Rivers best season beat out Aaron Rodgers 2018.

Ah you're right, I forgot to add in his rushing numbers from that year when calculating his fantasy numbers. My mistake.

With my scoring system which I think is pretty standard (25 yds/pt passing, 4 point pass TDs) Rodgers was at 312 in 2018 counting his rushing numbers, which is a bit ahead of Rivers in most of the last decade (about 1ppg).

Also Rodgers performance tonight stat wise is good enough for a QB1 performance in any of Weeks 1 2 or 3.

Sure, nice night. But is that the barometer here? Merely putting up QB1 numbers? There are no shortage of QBs that can put up QB1 numbers. But we're talking about a guy who is still treated as more than a forgettable jammed into the pack quarterback in 1qb leagues, which he really hasn't been for quite some time. There are a whole bunch of guys who are a whole lot cheaper who can just as reliably put up similar or better numbers and are a whole lot younger to boot.

Hes still a strong QB1, but he hasnt been a move the needle QB for a while now in fantasy.

I dont think that has anything to do with him really. The Mystique of Aaron Rodgers was always more than just him. He entered the league with bonafide Studs at WR (Jennings, Driver) and then had a seamless transition to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Rodgers has always been a QB thats elevated the play of his receivers, but MVS and Geronimo allison are a lot closer to James Jones than Cobb and Nelson. Theres only so much a QB can elevate their production, and the result is Rodgers settling in as a QB1 and not the stud we all remember.

[Phaded]

Okay so who are you taking in front of him as a secure year to year option?
Mahomes, Watson, Wilson....
Who else? Because after those 3 there is still a very strong argument in favour of Rodgers.

It's less about who at his position would go before him and more that his value on the market far outweights that aging mid-QB1 that he is, which is typically something that has very little value (see Big Ben/Rivers the last few years). His name still makes him a lot more valuable in trades and makes him go a lot earlier in drafts than that type of asset should go.

I disagree with who you would take over him, but everyone has their own opinion and it's easier to understand where you are at.

However, this above comment is extremely subjective and can be said about most highly valued players at any position. For example, I would not even consider touching Barkley at the going rate as there is much better value later. Some owners will always feel there is better value later.

[themburns]

Rivers throws 4-10x that amount of INTs and that is a super down year for Rodgers. Also, please find me one trade example of where you have traded for Rivers for a 3rd rounder. You must be talking about non-SF leagues, which makes QB all but meaningless.

Unless your name is Aaron Rodgers and then people still treat you like a meaningful asset even though you're not.

Who cares about INTs? We are talking about fantasy points here. Rivers scored more fantasy points than that 10 out of the last 11 years.

That may have been a "super down" year for Rodgers when he was 28. It's basically been 2 of the last 4 years for him at this point (boring 3800/31 in 2015) and unless he turns it around bigtime this year we're headed towards 3 out of 5 with one of the other two being a pass due to injury.

I guess that will depend on the scoring format you're in.

I can tell you that in 2018 in FFPC Scoring format (I believe thats 4pts TD & -1 INT) Aaron Rodgers scored 359 points and was QB7.

I can also tell you that Philips Rivers has not scored 359 points in FFPC scoring once in the past 10 years.

I think it's fair to question what a QB7 overall finish is worth. In looking up the FFPC scoring from last year, Rodgers scored 1.2 more points per game than the QB12, Tom Brady. Using the fantasy points per game played metric, Rodgers finished QB10, .6 ppg above Carson Wentz at QB12. He's not someone I'd give away, but he definitely has inflated name value in most leagues still.

As to the point about Rivers only hitting 359 once, that's totally fair but at the same time, with the way production numbers have been inflating year over year, that doesn't mean what it used to mean.

I think this tweet sums up where we are right now with Aaron Rodgers.

last 10 full:

Rodgers: 231/368 (62.8%), 262.2 YPG, 1.4 TDPG
Dalton: 230/371 (62.0%), 264.1 YPG, 2.0 TDPG

https://twitter.com/Ryan_Boser/status/1 ... 9176146944

Rodgers will be getting in less shootouts with this much improved defense and this running game is going nowhere. Additionally, Rodgers has taken an aggressive approach to injury recovery will prevent him from providing the kind of later in career value the P. Mannings and Bradys of the world possessed.

[ArrylT]

Also Rodgers performance tonight stat wise is good enough for a QB1 performance in any of Weeks 1 2 or 3.

Sure, nice night. But is that the barometer here? Merely putting up QB1 numbers? There are no shortage of QBs that can put up QB1 numbers. But we're talking about a guy who is still treated as more than a forgettable jammed into the pack quarterback in 1qb leagues, which he really hasn't been for quite some time. There are a whole bunch of guys who are a whole lot cheaper who can just as reliably put up similar or better numbers and are a whole lot younger to boot.

Well last time I checked, in order to be a QB1 one needed to put up QB1 numbers. Just pointing out that is exactly what Rodgers did last night.

Wherever & however people want to rank Aaron Rodgers is perfectly fine by me. My whole 'argument' is that Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to stop being a QB1 going forward. I showed examples of QB1s who had rough seasons, people bumped them down to QB2 status, and they went right back to QB1 production. I am only noting that this is quite likely for Aaron Rodgers, and showing that even a 'down year' for Aaron Rodgers is likely to be better than many other QBs.

Where & how owners value him going forward is up to them not me. If due to age, or potential injury concern, or worry that the Packers will turn into a rushing based offence - they wish to lower his ranking/value to them then I totally respect that. I am ONLY making a case that Rodgers will likely continue to produce like a QB1 - not telling owners how to value him.

[moishetreats]

Rodgers has always been a QB thats elevated the play of his receivers

IMO, this is the not the case. I think that Rodgers utilizes the talents of his receivers extremely well -- extraordinarily well. But, he does not elevate the play of his pass-catchers. That is the only chink in Rodgers' elite armor.

In contrast, Brett Favre won an MVP one year when his top three pass-catchers were out the majority of the season. That, IMO, is one of the most unheralded part of Favre's game: he's the QB that elevates games, that players ball out for.

Bottom line: Put talent around Rodgers, and I think that he's top of the QB list -- both in the NFL and in fantasy football. Put some talent around him, and he's a Pro Bowl player, QB1. Leave him without talent, and I worry. A lot.

[doublesticks]

I was down on Rodgers, but watching him last night I feel encouraged, Graham dropped 2 late jump ball TDs that the Jimmy G of 3 years ago catches.

If he does, it is a 40 point night for Rodgers.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I was down on Rodgers, but watching him last night I feel encouraged, Graham dropped 2 late jump ball TDs that the Jimmy G of 3 years ago catches.

If he does, it is a 40 point night for Rodgers.

Fair point...the problem is, Graham is his TE for the foreseeable future barring injury and has seen better days. Now Rodgers is likely going to be without Adams for a few weeks with the turf toe injury, so he's throwing to MVS, Allison, and checkdowns to Jones. He's still a very good NFL QB, but I'm not sure I see him posting too many top-5 fantasy QB weeks with those guys. Rodgers can still finish the season as a decent fantasy QB1, but he's no longer in that must-start elite tier.

[djeternal2]

Fair point...the problem is, Graham is his TE for the foreseeable future barring injury and has seen better days. Now Rodgers is likely going to be without Adams for a few weeks with the turf toe injury, so he's throwing to MVS, Allison, and checkdowns to Jones. He's still a very good NFL QB, but I'm not sure I see him posting too many top-5 fantasy QB weeks with those guys. Rodgers can still finish the season as a decent fantasy QB1, but he's no longer in that must-start elite tier.

I would agree with this while Adams is out, however long that ends up being. That said this could be a good thing for the offense where they are forced to run the offense through MVS, Allison, etc and then get to bring back Adams at some point down the road with the young guys having more familiarity with the offense.

[Jigga94]

Fair point...the problem is, Graham is his TE for the foreseeable future barring injury and has seen better days. Now Rodgers is likely going to be without Adams for a few weeks with the turf toe injury, so he's throwing to MVS, Allison, and checkdowns to Jones. He's still a very good NFL QB, but I'm not sure I see him posting too many top-5 fantasy QB weeks with those guys. Rodgers can still finish the season as a decent fantasy QB1, but he's no longer in that must-start elite tier.

I would agree with this while Adams is out, however long that ends up being. That said this could be a good thing for the offense where they are forced to run the offense through MVS, Allison, etc and then get to bring back Adams at some point down the road with the young guys having more familiarity with the offense.

interesting. I think you could be into something

[Blueboy]

Honestly, the playcalling seems to be hurting GB's offense a lot, regardless of player talent. This community loved Aaron Jones, and he's at something around 3.3 YPC for the season. Yards per carry is a flawed stat, but it lines up with the eye test -- he hasn't looked much better than Jammal Williams through four games, and the last two seasons that was a different story. The offensive scheme is uninspired thus far, so for both fantasy and real-NFL purposes the best hope is that it clicks as the season progresses.

[Phaded]

It seemed like Rodgers kind of took over the play-calling on Thursday. Again, Lafleur is trash. This is one of the most vanilla and uninspired offenses I have seen.

You have one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league, and in the games prior to Thursday, you had him passing 30, 34 & 29 times. Of course the passing numbers aren't going to be there when he's not passing the ball and you're treating him like a game manager. Prior to Thursday, he was ranked as 25th in attempts per game; very close to in line with his rank among Quarterbacks. It is no coincidence. Add in the fact that their running backs suck, their receivers suck and their playcalling sucks - I love ARod, but it's hard to see this changing soon unless he throws 40-50 passes a game which I doubt will happen.