Davante Adams Thread - Concerned?

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Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Water Buffalo » Mon May 12, 2014 8:55 pm

Before I go any further, let me start out by saying that I'm not necessarily even trying to make the argument that this is where I stand, and I'm not really trying to convince you to believe anything. This is more of me thinking out loud, thinking a tiny bit outside of the box, and challenging the status quo and "groupthink" mentality that sometimes sets in. In the end, I might even have convinced myself to move him up my board a bit, but again, doing a bit of research and playing devil's advocate was my primary intent.

Currently there's an awful lot of discussion about who should be getting drafted in that 1.03-1.05 range. The names thrown about most often are Cooks, Sankey, Lee, Matthews, and OBJ. Adams, however, hasn't once come up in that 1.05 or earlier, and in fact is most often seen in the 1.10 or later range, if even listed as a 1st round pick at all. Even in my initial first reaction rankings I personally had him as the 1.09 at best. Lets throw out Sankey from this conversation for a minute, because he's obviously a RB and in sort of a special situation as far as this draft is concerned. We'll just look at the WRs instead. Why are we all so quick to want Mathews, Lee, Cooks and OBJ ahead of Adams? I'm a big Cooks fan and I do truly believe that he should be a top 4 picks, but again, I'm thinking out loud here.

-He has the size you want in a WR. 6'1", 212 lbs. Well built. Red zone target.

-Adams was an INSANELY productive college receiver. He only played 2 years, but had over 100 receptions both years and 1300 yards one year and 1700 yards the next. I do understand that many feel that his competition level was inferior in the mountain west conference, but isn't that what you're supposed to do against perceived inferior competition? Dominate?

-He's not a raw project type of WR like Greg Little/Stephen Hill/Brian Quick at all, and he's going to be capable of contributing right away on a Packers team that doesn't seem to mind using young WRs early and often.

-He's young, still just 21 years old.

-Has great hands and is a natural hands catcher. Go watch his tape, he doesn't body catch and he plucks it out of the air nicely. My biggest concern with WRs is their inability to actually catch the football. This isn't a concern for me as it pertains to Adams. He also high points the ball with his hands well and has a good vertical.

-Played in a pass happy college offense with an NFL caliber QB (Carr). Normally you might say something like this is a negative to shed some light on why he was SO productive as a college receiver, but it could also very easily be viewed as a positive especially given his landing spot in the NFL. It once again just speaks to how NFL ready he's likely to be.

-I don't generally like to use a team's past history of success or failure at drafting a position to determine the future of a different player, but it is a bit eerie how much success Ted Thompson has had at finding WRs in the 2nd round of the draft. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings. And James Jones wasn't far off as a mid 3rd rounder. Maybe he's just a good WR talent evaluator? It could all just be coincidence, but it was worth mentioning.

-The Packers run a ton of 3 and 4 receiver sets. Adams is going to see the field, especially with James Jones no longer there. In most situations, you might be concerned with too many mouths to feed in a system where so many WRs are getting action, but it's been pretty well proven over the past several years that the Packers offense is capable of supporting 2 or even 3 guys to fantasy relevant levels.

-Nelson and Cobb contract situations. I'm in the camp that believes both will likely be back, but you never know.

-Aaron Rodgers is good and he's going to be there a long time. This sort of goes without saying, but I'll take it a step further. The main knock on Adams is that he doesn't have blazing speed and that he projects a bit as a possession receiver in the NFL. Of ALL the QBs in the entire NFL, I can't think of a QB more willing to throw darts into tight coverage than Rodgers, especially if that target has good hands and Rodgers trusts him. Rodgers is known for "throwing his receivers open". That's what potentially makes Adams landing spot so ideal. More than any other situation, I can see his downside being minimized by the QB throwing the ball to him. It's not like he's completely slow either, he's just not a 4.40 blazer like some guys.

Bottom line, Adams could be a very safe pick in an ideal situation. I don't intend the word safe to mean that he doesn't have upside either, but that his chance of being a complete bust seems incredibly low. So once again, why are we all so fast to unanimously choose guys like Lee, OBJ and Matthews or even Benjamin and Robinson ahead of him?

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Matticus » Mon May 12, 2014 9:01 pm

Matthews is the only one I have/had ahead of him after the draft. Guy has the talent of all the above (Matthews is in a slightly better situation IMO, otherwise a near draw), so I'm pick'n up what your lay'n down.

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby zounder » Mon May 12, 2014 9:13 pm

I think most people aren't as high on him talent-wise. Before NFL Draft, Cooks, OBJ, and Matthews were all thrown around as potential 1.03 possibilities and Adams wasn't even in most people's 1sts. Sankey jumped super high because he's a RB in a good situation. I had Adams as a late 1st/early 2nd before the draft and he's still in that range now, with a slight slight bump due to the good situation. I guess that means I won't be getting him.
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby DYNOmite » Mon May 12, 2014 10:59 pm

-Nelson and Cobb contract situations. I'm in the camp that believes both will likely be back, but you never know.
And there you have it. The only thing holding Adams back will be opportunity and I also expect Cobb and Nelson not to jump off the gravy train like Jennings did.

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Water Buffalo » Mon May 12, 2014 11:54 pm

DYNOmite wrote:
-Nelson and Cobb contract situations. I'm in the camp that believes both will likely be back, but you never know.
And there you have it. The only thing holding Adams back will be opportunity and I also expect Cobb and Nelson not to jump off the gravy train like Jennings did.
Is it impossible to have all 3 coexist though? As long as Rodgers is there slinging it, I'd probably rather have the 3rd WR on the Packers than the 2nd WR on a team with a lesser QB. And that's assuming Adams is going to be the 3rd option, which certainly isn't set in stone by any means... especially a year or two down the road. Cobb is going to play primarily out of the slot, so it's quite likely that Adams, Nelson and Cobb will all be on the field together for a good chunk of the time.

The other thing that's sort of endearing is that Nelson isn't necessarily a target hog. He was last year sort of by default with all the injuries the Packers WRs suffered, but look at 2011 and 2012. In 2012 when Cobb, Nelson and Jones all saw significant playing time, Cobb had 80 catches, Nelson had 49 (in 12 games, extrapolate it out to 65 for 16), and Jones had 64. Cobb was a WR1 that year, Nelson and Jones both WR2s. Nelson was a WR1 in 2011 with only 68 catches. Rodgers has historically completed around 350 passes in any given year. Is it a stretch to say that 3 guys can account for 220 of those (80/70/70 or there abouts)? With that sort of breakdown, Adams might not be a WR1, but what are the chances that ANY of the players you're drafting in the 1.03-1.05 range this year become WR1s? Maybe my standards are too low, but if I land a consistent WR2 with very little risk with a pick around the 1.03-1.05 range, I'm pretty happy with that.

Nelson isn't exactly a young pup either. He'll be 29 at the end of this month. Not old by any stretch, but we often see players start to decline from their elite levels of play right around 31. That's really not that far off. And I don't think I'm crazy when I say that Nelson, although a nice player, isn't an elite player by any stretch of the imagination. He's surely got plenty of playing time left, but is it ludicrous to think that maybe his production gradually goes down a bit over the next few years while Adams grabs a larger share of that pie? And if we're comparing Adams potential production to what James Jones was able to accomplish, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that Adams is a better prospect and player than James Jones. While Adams isn't the fastest guy in the world, he's actually still faster than Jones. Adams has better hands too. Jones had one of the absolute worst drop rates for receivers in the entire NFL for a stretch a couple years back. The obvious point being that Adams could (and should) carve out a larger role than Jones was capable of.

And ALL of the above is assuming a best case scenario from a health standpoint from the other Packers receivers, ignoring the craziness that can and does happen in fantasy football.

Lastly, why is playing time only an issue for Adams?

OBJ has Cruz and Randle to deal with. While I certainly think Cobb and Jordy are stiffer competition as far as receivers go, I also vastly prefer Rodgers over Eli.

Cooks has Colston, Stills, Graham, and likely a high volume of passes going to RBs.

Lee is locked in as a starter, but they also drafted Robinson. This situation also sort of goes back to my earlier statement. Would you rather have the WR2 with a bad QB or the WR3 with a good QB? I will grant you that Lee could be the #1, but we really don't know yet. And what about Blackmon? He adds another unknown element to the equation. Bortles is also a monumental question mark at the current moment.

Matthews has Maclin, Cooper, Ertz, and once again what is likely to be a very high number of passes going to RBs with Sproles and McCoy very able receivers. I'm willing to concede that the Eagles might just throw it a billion times, but still :lol: As prolific as the Eagles offense seemed last year, Foles only completed 203 passes believe it or not. That WAS essentially only in 11 games, but again, if we extrapolate that average out it only comes to around 295 completed passes in 16 games. Significantly less than Rodgers has as a rough career average.

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue May 13, 2014 2:33 am

the biggest reason to me is fresno state skill guys have floundered in the NFL , if bernard berrian and ryan matthews is best the school have ever produced fantasy wise then why would anyone try to push this guy up the board . Carr had 50 tds and 5000 yards last year does anyone really see an NFL career better than his brothers on the horizon. Adams landed in a great spot but they also drafted 2 other wr and have 3 proven guys already on the roster . He may be a superstar but there are far less risky options available in the area he is likely to be drafted .
Ted Thompson seems to pick wr well and rodgers adds value to any wr but I cannot see reaching for him before about 1;8 or 1:9
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby KNew515 » Tue May 13, 2014 3:24 am

He currently 5th on my board and I will likely take him at 7. He's in one of the best situations and could be the WR2 by 2015 as he should surpass Boykin. Based on the team drafting three WR it's most likely they will let Nelson or Cobb walk in FA next offseason (prolly Nelson). If anything he should be super productive in the redzone like James Jones was.
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Jfever » Tue May 13, 2014 7:13 am

Good question. I think some good points have been made here thus far. Rogers is an elite qb and imo, the #1fantasty qb in the game. Cobb and Jordy are both quite solid and Boykin and (whomever play TE) will likely be involved depending on match up and what the defense gives them.

The bigger concern for me is that GB may be starting to lean more on the run game. If Lacy stays healthy, Rogers will throw less. If Rogers throws just a bit less, I'd assume that the production of the new guys on the block would suffer more than the guys that have already established a good level of trust with Rogers.

This is why I likely wouldn't take Adams higher than say 1.07 - 1.08. He could bypass Boykin and say Quarless, based on skill set. Even then though he is still going to be 3rd on the depth chart for foreseeable future. The slight transition to more of a run dependent scheme coupled with Adams likely being limited to a wr3 in that offense - is my bigger concern.
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby ajb3313 » Tue May 13, 2014 8:30 am

I'd been eyeing him at 01.11 anyway, though he probably doesn't fall that far now given the situation he was drafted into. Our draft includes non-keeper free agents, so there's always a few "veterans" in the pool that changes the true value of rookies a bit.

Honestly, I don't think I'd be surprised to see him come off some boards at 01.03 behind Watkins and Evans. I'd imagine that'll be rare, but his situation certainly helps and he's been nothing short of a touchdown machine.
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Jfever » Tue May 13, 2014 9:20 am

No chance he comes off the board at 1.03. No chance. Maybe to a hard core packers fan or something. But the reasonable range is mid to late 1st even considering his landing spot.

It seems as though some are forgetting that E.Lacy is there, and Adams - (although he is the new sparkly toy) - is still behind Cobb, Jordy, and Boykin in the passing game. The packers and Rogers will be spreading the ball around and simply taking what the defenses give them. This will make his production impossible to predict and he'll be tough to start and thus his value will be tough to gauge. His landing spot is good but it isn't awesome enough to warrant taking him over Sankey, Cooks, or even a few others imo.
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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby Water Buffalo » Tue May 13, 2014 10:23 am

clarion contrarion wrote: He may be a superstar but there are far less risky options available in the area he is likely to be drafted .
That's a big part of my question though, who are these "far less risky" options and why are they less risky? Because I'm not entirely sure I see it.

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby WindyCityFlyer » Tue May 13, 2014 10:32 am

This draft is loaded, plain and simple. good thread topic WB.

Adams is on my radar at 1.9, and absolutely not on my radar at 1.5 and 1.6, for what that is worth. But honestly, I could see some players I want with my early picks surviving to 1.9 anyway. I am finding it super difficult to really lock down my WR rankings this year...its pert near a coin flip situation.

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby heydangle » Tue May 13, 2014 11:24 am

he's in my thoughts at 1.03. If I can trade back, I will

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby ebsteelers » Tue May 13, 2014 1:00 pm

hard to believe he doesnt overtake boykins early in the year no? its not exactly like J.B. was a stud prior to last year.
Also gotta be more of a reason to take him in the 2nd then potential cobb or nelson leaving.

idk if hes there end of 1, its hard to not like what he could bring to the table..

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Re: Davante Adams - Why not higher?

Postby ericanadian » Tue May 13, 2014 2:38 pm

I think the jump in the level of competition is pretty significant. He played only one or two teams with decent college level defenses and it's not like he dominated every game. Cooks had more receiving yards than him playing in a real conference. Lee's done the same when fully healthy and with a competent team around him. Matthews put up near as many yards in the SEC.

As to the situation, the only season that Jones was relevant he caught 14 TDs. That's not something I want to bank on. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm saying it's not going to happen consistently. I also think it's premature to just assume he'll blaze by Boykin to the number three role. I'm also not seeing any evidence of rookies in Green Bay being thrown into significant roles early. Boykin is pretty much the lone example and it took a buttload of injuries for him to get that shot.

I can see Adams as a guy I'd take as the sixth or seventh receiver, but I'd be pretty hard pressed to jump him much higher than that.
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