Dynasty League Football Forum

mild wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:02 am

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:32 pm As we can see, DK pretty much only runs gos, crossing patterns, and slants, and from one side of the field. Can you be a legitimate fantasy WR1 asset running 3 routes? Maybe, I guess. It would be a pretty major outlier though. Were those questioning his ability to run routes correct? It appears so. Will his game expand? Hell if I know. I don’t think anyone from this class is close to a lock for anything at this point.

Always enjoy your insights Prove. Allow me to offer a little of the devils advocate for DK.

First thing I noticed is that his routes don't look altogether dissimilar to rookie-season Courtland Sutton. So, for whatever that's worth... perhaps he could be on the right path here.

Second thing I think of in terms of DK, is the part you said at the end... "Will his game expand?" - and to that end, I am extremely optimistic. *Obviously* it will expand to some degree - he's doing this as a 21 year old. We all remember being 21, and how comparatively bad we were at whatever it was we were trying to achieve professionally, or hell, just in life...

But it's more than that. This kid has been a gym rat from the age of 8. He knows how to work hard... you just don't get a body like that unless you do. That tells me he knows how to put in the time, and he wants to be exceptional. He grew up around the NFL - that is and has always been a bonus, every player that comes from a professional background will say so. That tells me he knows what it's going to take to be great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPe8E-9AdPs

Thirdly, and most importantly - this is a route coaching channel that I've been enjoying a lot lately for his insights. He thinks DK's routes aren't too bad, but more than that, projects him as "fixable" and even bothers to go on the record as saying he bets he will fix these things (like the extra hitches at the top of his breaks, and the ability to sink his hips better - do more yoga DK!) this offseason. That's all pretty bold. But I think the full picture of who this guy is, and his drive and competitiveness to work - makes me really excited to see what's next for him.

Lets not forget. He basically broke the combine for a WR at that size. He has the tools.

Oh, and he has a perennial MVP candidate throwing him the ball the next 4 years too. That's pretty good.

I was gun shy on DK in rookie drafts, I preferred the ‘value’ of guys like AJ, deebo, Hollywood, Campbell. I actually still think that was the right stance, but anyways. I’ve come around on DK and this post pretty well nails why.

The part that’s maybe understated a bit is that last bit. I lean talent over situation, but it’s not a stretch to really really like DKs spot here, with a young, HoF trajectory QB, no traditional WR1 (I love Lockett but still)

I loved the links to the route trees of the best, but hey, this guy is a rook. Let’s see.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:06 pm

ckrumm24 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.

Honestly thinking the order you listed them, with Deebo 5th is about what I would do. I think Deebo 4th and Terry 5th maybe

Is it just me or is Hollywood still riding his huge week 1 and Deebo still being penalized for a slower start? Also maybe Slayton should be in this conversation.

Top rookie WRs in PPG:
(1) Slayton (13.6)
(2) McLaurin (12.7)
(3) Deebo (12.0)
(4) DK (12.0)
(5) AJB (11.8)
(6) Hollywood (11.5)
(7) Preston Williams (11.4)

blemly wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:05 pm

Blueboy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:46 pm With three weeks left in the regular season, do we get a rookie WR with 1000 yards this season? Metcalf, Brown and McLaurin have outside chances.
Metcalf - 50 rec, 783 yards, 5 TD
A.J. Brown - 39 rec, 779 yards, 6 TD
McLaurin - 46 rec, 703 yards, 6 TD

The next tier of guys don't really have a shot, as they've had hot/cold portions to the season.

Deebo - 47 rec, 640 yards, 3 TD
Hollywood Brown - 39 rec, 518 yards, 6 TD
Darius Slayton - 37 rec, 505 yards, 5 TD
Mecole Hardman - 24 rec, 498 yards, 6 TD

In any case, his WR class is certainly looking good.

AJ putting up those numbers on 39 freakin’ catches is crazy. Dude looks like a stud.

The best part is that AJ is doing it with YAC. He has 367 yards after the catch. Definitely a stud. Per Next Gen Stats he is averaging 9.4 Yards after the catch per reception.

BucFanJKE wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:44 am
The best part is that AJ is doing it with YAC. He has 367 yards after the catch. Definitely a stud. Per Next Gen Stats he is averaging 9.4 Yards after the catch per reception.

I don't know if I would consider that the "Best part". YAC is nice but it isn't consistent year after year. Very hard to replicate large YAC numbers long term. It's more of a "Cherry on the top".

hoos89 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:22 am
Is it just me or is Hollywood still riding his huge week 1 and Deebo still being penalized for a slower start? Also maybe Slayton should be in this conversation.

Top rookie WRs in PPG:
(1) Slayton (13.6)
(2) McLaurin (12.7)
(3) Deebo (12.0)
(4) DK (12.0)
(5) AJB (11.8)
(6) Hollywood (11.5)
(7) Preston Williams (11.4)

Same goes for McLaurin, had a huge start to the season but has been un-startable the second half of the season.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:22 am

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:06 pm

ckrumm24 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.

Honestly thinking the order you listed them, with Deebo 5th is about what I would do. I think Deebo 4th and Terry 5th maybe

Is it just me or is Hollywood still riding his huge week 1 and Deebo still being penalized for a slower start? Also maybe Slayton should be in this conversation.

Top rookie WRs in PPG:
(1) Slayton (13.6)
(2) McLaurin (12.7)
(3) Deebo (12.0)
(4) DK (12.0)
(5) AJB (11.8)
(6) Hollywood (11.5)
(7) Preston Williams (11.4)

If you are ranking them based on what they have done this season, sure. If you are ranking them based on career outlook, then I think Hollywood is still clearly underrated. Based on this year, DK and Deebo have pretty easily been the most consistently startable assets. Then McLaurin, AJB, Slayton, and Hollywood fall in behind.

Going forward I'd probably rank them:

1. DK
2. Hollywood
3. AJB
4. Deebo
5. McLaurin
6. Slayton

In terms of route running Mclaurin is the best and it isn't even close.

The problem with McLaurin & Slayton is that the Giants and Redskins are looking to add talent all throughout their roster. Not saying those guys won’t be WR1 on their teams, but decent chance both teams invest high draft capital in other WRs.

IBall2 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:01 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:22 am
Is it just me or is Hollywood still riding his huge week 1 and Deebo still being penalized for a slower start? Also maybe Slayton should be in this conversation.

Top rookie WRs in PPG:
(1) Slayton (13.6)
(2) McLaurin (12.7)
(3) Deebo (12.0)
(4) DK (12.0)
(5) AJB (11.8)
(6) Hollywood (11.5)
(7) Preston Williams (11.4)

Same goes for McLaurin, had a huge start to the season but has been un-startable the second half of the season.

I personally don't care about any of their rookie WR PPG numbers. Ultimately, some of them will end up taking significant year 2/3 jumps and explode in production to where you want to start them weekly (Right now realistically nobody is starting any of these guys and competing), and others will taper off and peak early. That's why I think it's more important to take a deeper look at how they have played in the season itself.

McLaurin has definitely been un-startable the second half of the season, but he's also looked like the best rookie receiver out there. He has great hands, but also a stellar route running tree, and elite WR speed. I'm assuming everyone see the 1 handed TD grab with his LEFT hand, which was really impressive, but McLaurin is making big plays every week, he's just not getting the ball thrown too because Haskins and the redskins o-line have been disastrous.

I like Metcalf and AJB perfectly even, but I'll give the edge to Metcalf due to having Wilson, I would also rank deebo equivalent to brown.

I have it as follows:

Tier 1: AJB/Metcalf/Mclaurin
Tier 2: Brown/Deebo

I would be okay with making a tier 1.5 and placing Mclaurin there because his situation is easily the worst out of the 5 (As of now).

Forza_Azzurri wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:12 am The problem with McLaurin & Slayton is that the Giants and Redskins are looking to add talent all throughout their roster. Not saying those guys won’t be WR1 on their teams, but decent chance both teams invest high draft capital in other WRs.

I would agree that both teams will add talent but this shouldn't really hurt Mclaurin given he is already facing a lot of double teams. Slayton is a bit more of concern due to more options once the players are healthy.

McLaurin's only issue is QB development in both accuracy and vision. He has been missed a lot on open routes.

mild wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:02 am

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:32 pm As we can see, DK pretty much only runs gos, crossing patterns, and slants, and from one side of the field. Can you be a legitimate fantasy WR1 asset running 3 routes? Maybe, I guess. It would be a pretty major outlier though. Were those questioning his ability to run routes correct? It appears so. Will his game expand? Hell if I know. I don’t think anyone from this class is close to a lock for anything at this point.

Always enjoy your insights Prove. Allow me to offer a little of the devils advocate for DK.

First thing I noticed is that his routes don't look altogether dissimilar to rookie-season Courtland Sutton. So, for whatever that's worth... perhaps he could be on the right path here.

Second thing I think of in terms of DK, is the part you said at the end... "Will his game expand?" - and to that end, I am extremely optimistic. *Obviously* it will expand to some degree - he's doing this as a 21 year old. We all remember being 21, and how comparatively bad we were at whatever it was we were trying to achieve professionally, or hell, just in life...

But it's more than that. This kid has been a gym rat from the age of 8. He knows how to work hard... you just don't get a body like that unless you do. That tells me he knows how to put in the time, and he wants to be exceptional. He grew up around the NFL - that is and has always been a bonus, every player that comes from a professional background will say so. That tells me he knows what it's going to take to be great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPe8E-9AdPs

Thirdly, and most importantly - this is a route coaching channel that I've been enjoying a lot lately for his insights. He thinks DK's routes aren't too bad, but more than that, projects him as "fixable" and even bothers to go on the record as saying he bets he will fix these things (like the extra hitches at the top of his breaks, and the ability to sink his hips better - do more yoga DK!) this offseason. That's all pretty bold. But I think the full picture of who this guy is, and his drive and competitiveness to work - makes me really excited to see what's next for him.

Lets not forget. He basically broke the combine for a WR at that size. He has the tools.

Oh, and he has a perennial MVP candidate throwing him the ball the next 4 years too. That's pretty good.

My take is similar but think his routes are actually better than he is given credit for to a point it is close to a false narrative. I took quite a bit of flack for comping him to Julio Jones as a rookie. Julio was more refined as a route runner but not by much coming out. My other comp was Evans. DK's stats are tracking very close to Evans rookie YTD with the exceptions of TD's.

DK has actually been slightly more efficient than Julio in his rookie campaign with 50 catches on 83 targets compared to 54 on 95 targets. Julio was a couple of yards better per catch but DK is tracking very similar given he didn't have the experience Julio did coming out. Julio only played and started 13 games as a rookie. DK has started 12 of 13 games. Obviously Wilson helps.

DK can beat press just fine. He is exceptional on back shoulder routes already. Runs outs, comebacks, slants, solid on double moves, and has great gear changes on deep routes. The one area he has surprised me a bit on the positive side is he has a better feel for finding the soft spots in zone coverage schemes. Even on a couple of negative plays where he fumbled he was fighting hard for yards. One cost him a TD but that effort was incredible.

Of his 783 yards YTD 264 are YAC which is top 50. He played very good against Ramsey the other day. That is no small task. He beat him on a great route for 30 plus yards. The reason I bring it up is Ramsey is one of the best in the business and usually beats his opponents. Ramsey also struggles with Julio some. That size, strength, and speed are variables even the best DB's will struggle with. Another variable that matters is the fight in a player. While DK got a 15 yard penalty for getting the last lick in their shoving match it shows this player won't back down regardless of who is covering him.

DK is just scratching the surface on how good he can be. The question is will he develop like Julio Jones has over the long haul? No question he has the athletic ability. DK also seems to possess the desire. Time will tell if he moves into the elite class at the position but betting against him at this point is not a great bet.

Kmani6 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:07 am In terms of route running Mclaurin is the best and it isn't even close.

Well that's good, because he's a year older than Juju, and a year younger than Tyreek! I would hope the old man had learnt some tricks from his time in finishing school.

Mclaurin is great but I see his upside as pretty capped - both by being a Redskin for the forseeable future, and by already being 2-3 years older than these other rookies we are discussing. He SHOULD be more refined. In reality, and for dynasty purposes - we should be judging him next to his other 24 year old contemporaries like Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, and *checks notes* Corey Davis!?! Holy cr-p...

Just to, y'know, play the devils advocate

Yup, his 4.35 speed is also a learnt skill as well. I'm expecting the other guys to be clocking in at 4.20's by the time their 24.

In all seriousness, the skills I love him for are the one's you cant teach, or at least easily. Elite speed, Elite route running, and Great hands. Many receivers, in all age classes, struggle with any or all three of those categories.

It does not make sense to judge McLaurin to Ridley or Sutton because McLaurin does not hold the same value they do. We compare him to the other rookies, like DK/AJB/Deebo/Hollywood because they all hold similar if not equal value.

Was just thinking about this again tonight. I own Deebo and AJB and if I was offered any of the other guys straight up I think I would only take DK over both of them. TMac is definitely has taken but it scares me with him being on the Redskins. Who the hell is the last WR1 from there for more than 1 year? Art F’ing Monk!?

Come to think of it, do the redskins have the worst WRs in the last 20 years?

I'd rank them:
1) DK - Wilson's go to now.
2) Scary Terry - best route runner but he'll drop in rankings quickly if Haskins doesn't develop quickly. I have zero faith in WAS and their owner.
3) AJ Brown - love the YAC. Has already surpassed Corey Davis. Tanny has made great use of him!
4) Slayton - love what I've seen the last month. Jones loves him and I think he's their top WR next season.
5) Deebo - what some thought Pettis will be. Kittle is still top dog there though.
6) Hollywood Brown - injury prone and his floor can be scary low. Hopefully healthy next season.
7) Preston - TBD, but was top option in passing attack before injury. Unfortunately the Dolphins can't even tank right.