Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:45 pm

I was definitely off as far as immediate contributions go. Didn't see McLaurin coming, nor did I believe in Metcalf being as productive early.

I still don't really believe in this class long-term, but the immediate impact from the WR's is definitely surprising.

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby mild » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:50 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:45 pm I still don't really believe in this class long-term, but the immediate impact from the WR's is definitely surprising.
I honestly don't know what more you need to see.

Another year of refinement for DK, AJB, Hollywood... those three in particular I see as on hard upward trajectories.

Terry seems fully formed already and is making the best of a bad situation. Even if he is already older than Juju...

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Phaded » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:52 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:44 pm
Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:30 pm
hoos89 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:26 pm

Wasn't 2017 pretty hyped?
Indeed it was - and well, obviously McCaffrey was a stud. Fournette has been "okay" but largely disappointing.
Then you have the mess that became Davis, Williams, Ross, OJH, etc..
Given it is also still quite early but the trajectory does not bode well for a lot of those guys.
Yeah but Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara... I agree the WR were terrible
Those were the guys that were sliding to late 1sts and 2nds though because there wasn't that much hype around them. (fantasy)
I remember Kamara slid a lot because of Ingram & AP.
I just mentioned the guys drafted in the top half of the 1st round. (NFL)

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:57 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:44 pm Yeah but Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara... I agree the WR were terrible
Maybe the very early ones, but Juju, Godwin, Golladay and Kupp have been stellar.

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:59 pm

mild wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:50 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:45 pm I still don't really believe in this class long-term, but the immediate impact from the WR's is definitely surprising.
I honestly don't know what more you need to see.

Another year of refinement for DK, AJB, Hollywood... those three in particular I see as on hard upward trajectories.

Terry seems fully formed already and is making the best of a bad situation. Even if he is already older than Juju...
Don't get me wrong, I think some of these players are going to be good/already are good (A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson) and I've maintained that even when I was against this class.

I agree that McLaurin is good. I'm waiting to see his separation numbers at the end of the season before I go further, but I really like what I've seen from him and he's been doing a lot with very little.

But...I don't see long-term WR1s in this class and I think Jacobs is the only long-term RB1-ish back from this class.

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby hoos89 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:05 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:52 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:44 pm
Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:30 pm

Indeed it was - and well, obviously McCaffrey was a stud. Fournette has been "okay" but largely disappointing.
Then you have the mess that became Davis, Williams, Ross, OJH, etc..
Given it is also still quite early but the trajectory does not bode well for a lot of those guys.
Yeah but Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara... I agree the WR were terrible
Those were the guys that were sliding to late 1sts and 2nds though because there wasn't that much hype around them. (fantasy)
I remember Kamara slid a lot because of Ingram & AP.
I just mentioned the guys drafted in the top half of the 1st round. (NFL)
July 2017 ADP (per mizelle) had Mixon 1.03 and Cook 1.05 (in addition to Fournette 1.02 and CMC 1.04). Literally one of the top 5 players in that rookie draft was rated outside the top 30 in November 2019 ADP. Plus Kamara 1.07, Hunt 1.10, JuJu 2.01, Engram 2.02, Godwin 2.06, Golladay 2.08, Mack 2.09, Conner 2.11, Watson 3.04, Kupp 3.07, Mahomes 3.11, Aaron Jones 3.12, Kittle 4.04. That draft class was stacked, and I think there's still a decent chance that a couple of Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, OJ Howard and David Njoku end up having solid careers.

(Also Fournette has been anything but "okay" this season)
Last edited by hoos89 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:07 pm

AJ was always my top WR in this class. I really liked Deebo and DK, too. Marquise I was unsure about, but did end up drafting him in best ball. This class looks really good so far.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:07 pm

Weknownothing86 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:13 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:46 pm Why would it make the community seem foolish, it was billed as a deep wr class but not top heavy which it was
It sounded more to me like people were billing it as trash, not top heavy or deep, just trash, like 2016, or worse than 2016.
that was post-nfl draft. pre-nfl draft it was as i described

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:13 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:52 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:44 pm
Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:30 pm

Indeed it was - and well, obviously McCaffrey was a stud. Fournette has been "okay" but largely disappointing.
Then you have the mess that became Davis, Williams, Ross, OJH, etc..
Given it is also still quite early but the trajectory does not bode well for a lot of those guys.
Yeah but Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara... I agree the WR were terrible
Those were the guys that were sliding to late 1sts and 2nds though because there wasn't that much hype around them. (fantasy)
I remember Kamara slid a lot because of Ingram & AP.
I just mentioned the guys drafted in the top half of the 1st round. (NFL)
NFL draft, totally right you are. I was thinking of a rookie fantasy draft, where all those RB went before a WR. Yes I thought getting CD at 1.09 was gonna work out well...

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Shcritters » Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:58 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:13 pm
Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:52 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:44 pm

Yeah but Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara... I agree the WR were terrible
Those were the guys that were sliding to late 1sts and 2nds though because there wasn't that much hype around them. (fantasy)
I remember Kamara slid a lot because of Ingram & AP.
I just mentioned the guys drafted in the top half of the 1st round. (NFL)
NFL draft, totally right you are. I was thinking of a rookie fantasy draft, where all those RB went before a WR. Yes I thought getting CD at 1.09 was gonna work out well...
Hey, I’m not bailing on CD yet. If DParker has taught me anything it is not to sell low before the 5th year breakout. Just wait until CD finds himself in a situation with Fitzmagic as his QB... we’ll all be eating crow then!

I wish I had sold in the offseason. Still do have hope he goes to a new team and improves... but we can all dream.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby ckrumm24 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm

Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:06 pm

ckrumm24 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.
Honestly thinking the order you listed them, with Deebo 5th is about what I would do. I think Deebo 4th and Terry 5th maybe

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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby Ice » Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:13 pm

ckrumm24 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.

There will be more than 2 studs from this class easy.


7 Rookie WR's are in the top 50 in fantasy when looking at points per game and all of those are averaging 11.35 points or better. All of them are legit. Deebo has the look of a future WR1.

I still have DK 1 and M Brown 2 but all look really good. In addition, I expect Hardman and D. Johnson to be really good and more consistent next year. I own both of these in a few leagues as well. Hardman should replace Watkins next year and has video game speed much like M. Brown.

I thought this was one of the best WR class we have seen in years with multiple WR1 fantasy upside players.

DK is the closest to a lock future stud IMO; His targets the last 5 games are 9,10,6,7,6 which is impressive given how much they run the ball. He is a monster and really developing.

YTD targets ( top rookies)

DK 83 ( leads rookies with 50 catches) (5 TD's)
T. McLaurin 79 (missed 1 game) (6 TD's)
D. Johnson 69 ( Suspect QB Play) (very fluid) (4TD's)
D. Slayton 69 ( missed 2 games) (7 TD's)
Deebo 67 ( Missed 1 game/running threat) (4TD's; 1 is rushing)
M Brown 63 ( Missed 2 games) playing on bad wheel (6 TD's)
AJB 61 ( 6 TD's)
P. Williams 60 ( Only played 8 games) (3 TD's)
Hardman 38 ( 6 TD's)

The one player that has surprised me is Slayton. I missed on him completely. Solid route runner. Not sure he will be a stud but he is having a great year for a rookie WR.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby PR0v3 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:32 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:13 pm
ckrumm24 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:51 pm Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft right now? I’m having a really difficult yet time ranking them as dynasty assets with any confidence. I Definitely disagree with the guy who said there’s no WR1s. I think there will be at least 2, I just don’t know who.

There will be more than 2 studs from this class easy.


7 Rookie WR's are in the top 50 in fantasy when looking at points per game and all of those are averaging 11.35 points or better. All of them are legit. Deebo has the look of a future WR1.

I still have DK 1 and M Brown 2 but all look really good. In addition, I expect Hardmen and D. Johnson to be really good and more consistent next year. I own both of these in a few leagues as well. Hardman should replace Watkins next year and has video game speed much like M. Brown.

I thought this was one of the best WR class we have seen in years with multiple WR1 fantasy upside players.

DK is the closest to a lock future stud IMO; His targets the last 5 games are 9,10,6,7,6 which is impressive given how much they run the ball. He is a monster and really developing.

YTD targets ( top rookies)

DK 83 ( leads rookies with 50 catches) (5 TD's)
T. McLaurin 79 (missed 1 game) (6 TD's)
D. Johnson 69 ( Suspect QB Play) (very fluid) (4TD's)
D. Slayton 69 ( missed 2 games) (7 TD's)
Deebo 67 ( Missed 1 game/running threat) (4TD's; 1 is rushing)
M Brown 63 ( Missed 2 games) playing on bad wheel (6 TD's)
AJB 61 ( 6 TD's)
P. Williams 60 ( Only played 8 games) (3 TD's)
Hardman 38 ( 6 TD's)

The one player that has surprised me is Slayton. I missed on him completely. Solid route runner. Not sure he will be a stud but he is having a great year for a rookie WR.
I’m still not sure that DK is a future stud lock. He is great at what he does, but his route tree is still very limited. At this point, he is a specialist. A great one, but still a specialist.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 377/season

For him to make a jump his game will have to expand, I think. He has a high floor, but it’s not clear to me how he will progress.

Here is what stud WR1 route trees look like:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 315/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 912/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 500/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 591/season

Here’s what some other semi comparable players look like:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 392/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 526/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 546/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 009/season

Here’s what some other rookies are doing:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 218/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 223/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 328/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 097/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/pla ... 077/season


As we can see, DK pretty much only runs gos, crossing patterns, and slants, and from one side of the field. Can you be a legitimate fantasy WR1 asset running 3 routes? Maybe, I guess. It would be a pretty major outlier though. Were those questioning his ability to run routes correct? It appears so. Will his game expand? Hell if I know. I don’t think anyone from this class is close to a lock for anything at this point.
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Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Postby mild » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:02 am

PR0v3 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:32 pm As we can see, DK pretty much only runs gos, crossing patterns, and slants, and from one side of the field. Can you be a legitimate fantasy WR1 asset running 3 routes? Maybe, I guess. It would be a pretty major outlier though. Were those questioning his ability to run routes correct? It appears so. Will his game expand? Hell if I know. I don’t think anyone from this class is close to a lock for anything at this point.
Always enjoy your insights Prove. Allow me to offer a little of the devils advocate for DK. 8-)

First thing I noticed is that his routes don't look altogether dissimilar to rookie-season Courtland Sutton. So, for whatever that's worth... perhaps he could be on the right path here.

Second thing I think of in terms of DK, is the part you said at the end... "Will his game expand?" - and to that end, I am extremely optimistic. *Obviously* it will expand to some degree - he's doing this as a 21 year old. We all remember being 21, and how comparatively bad we were at whatever it was we were trying to achieve professionally, or hell, just in life...

But it's more than that. This kid has been a gym rat from the age of 8. He knows how to work hard... you just don't get a body like that unless you do. That tells me he knows how to put in the time, and he wants to be exceptional. He grew up around the NFL - that is and has always been a bonus, every player that comes from a professional background will say so. That tells me he knows what it's going to take to be great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPe8E-9AdPs

Thirdly, and most importantly - this is a route coaching channel that I've been enjoying a lot lately for his insights. He thinks DK's routes aren't too bad, but more than that, projects him as "fixable" and even bothers to go on the record as saying he bets he will fix these things (like the extra hitches at the top of his breaks, and the ability to sink his hips better - do more yoga DK!) this offseason. That's all pretty bold. But I think the full picture of who this guy is, and his drive and competitiveness to work - makes me really excited to see what's next for him.

Lets not forget. He basically broke the combine for a WR at that size. He has the tools.

Oh, and he has a perennial MVP candidate throwing him the ball the next 4 years too. That's pretty good.


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