O.J. Howard Thread

[theone]

Late 1st is when I would start thinking about him in most leagues. We can learn a lot by the ADP data from the last few years. Just not the value growth opportunity of WRs/RBs. Similarly to QBs, people do not value TEs that much do the large supply available. TE fantasy production also tends to be more scheme dependent than WR/RB.
I also have Engram ahead of Howard. Not the better overall player but a TE who will essentially play receiver in the NFL with better receiving skills/college production than Howard and similarly impressive athletic traits.

[BuckeyeNation]

I may end up missing the boat on Howard, but I don't want to spend a mid -1st on him or any other TE for that matter. In general TEs take a while to develop and it usually leads to young TEs depressing in value before they start to rise. I'd much rather let someone spend a high pick on a TE and then look to buy a TE that's been around for a year or two, right before they blossom.

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

[lukkynumber13]

I may end up missing the boat on Howard, but I don't want to spend a mid -1st on him or any other TE for that matter. In general TEs take a while to develop and it usually leads to young TEs depressing in value before they start to rise. I'd much rather let someone spend a high pick on a TE and then look to buy a TE that's been around for a year or two, right before they blossom.

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

GREAT point. Spot on

[maxhyde]

I may end up missing the boat on Howard, but I don't want to spend a mid -1st on him or any other TE for that matter. In general TEs take a while to develop and it usually leads to young TEs depressing in value before they start to rise. I'd much rather let someone spend a high pick on a TE and then look to buy a TE that's been around for a year or two, right before they blossom.

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

This is exactly right. In TE premium I can see drafting and holding with a premium pick 1.-4/5/6 but for my money I will wait and draft guys in the 2nd/3rd. Now if he is around at 10-12 I am probably taking him just because he is the best of this solid class of TE's imo

[koalabear]

Howard is a stud. It's kinda weird to me.

So Eric Ebron (in that loaded 2014 class) I say be valued as high as 1.05.

Now I understand this class is pretty loaded as well, but I do put it SLIGHTLY below that 2014 class as a whole. Still a great class.

But Howard is a better prospect than Ebron was. So how can he not be considered a top 6 pick?

Idk I think Howard is a rare talent (like most have said) and if you want to take him 1.05/1.06 do it.

Don't get crazy and say he's a top 3 pick but if you love him enough and can't trade down at say 1.05 take your guy

Any thoughts to that?

Because Ebron should have never been considered a top 6 pick either. If this TE class is an all time great there's zero value in taking a TE that highly. I would only consider putting him up that high if he hits an elite landing spot like NO (I currently would take him around 1.12 ish) where he has a reasonable chance to produce like a wr2. If you draft him at 1.5, wait the usual two to three years and get greg olsen I just dont see it as worth it.

Funny cos I see Ebron and Howard as being similar in that neither scored many TDs in college and that has translated so far for Ebron in the pros.

Now Howard is a better player than Ebron I reckon. But for fantasy, I'd rather have Engram.

[clarion contrarion]

just looked at the dlf rookie top 50 and agreeing with the premise that TE usually takes a year or two to "get it" , jake butt and adam sheheen are not even in the top 50 and bucky hodges is 27th . Those price points make drafting howard at his 1:9 or even engram @ 1;10 or njoku @ 1:12 cost prohibitive for my taste . I like all 3 players especially engram and howard but if I get stuck with shaheen hodges or jake butt around 30th or later that is OK . I may even forego drafting a TE entirely and grab gerald everett george kittle ( watching his blocking tape & knowing his athleticism tells me he will be on the field very early) or jordan leggett as an UDFA that seems far more palatable at this point.

[23B_Mills]

I may end up missing the boat on Howard, but I don't want to spend a mid -1st on him or any other TE for that matter. In general TEs take a while to develop and it usually leads to young TEs depressing in value before they start to rise. I'd much rather let someone spend a high pick on a TE and then look to buy a TE that's been around for a year or two, right before they blossom.

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

My thought exactly. Probably gonna have to miss out on Howard

[psfox2010]

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

That's my exact thinking. I have the 1.10 and 2.01, so I'd be tempted to take him at one of those picks, but I couldn't spend a 1.05-1.08 on him for the reason you stated.

I also agree with the above poster and there are a few solid TEs (Butt, etc.) who will probably go undrafted in my league and could just pick them up after the draft.

[eNdblu]

Where did Tyler Eifert go in your league the year he was drafted?
He was also the 2nd skill position guy to go off the board in that draft, so that may be a good starting point to considering when/where he may be drafted?

[Cameron Giles]

Howard is a stud. It's kinda weird to me.

So Eric Ebron (in that loaded 2014 class) I say be valued as high as 1.05.

Now I understand this class is pretty loaded as well, but I do put it SLIGHTLY below that 2014 class as a whole. Still a great class.

But Howard is a better prospect than Ebron was. So how can he not be considered a top 6 pick?

Idk I think Howard is a rare talent (like most have said) and if you want to take him 1.05/1.06 do it.

Don't get crazy and say he's a top 3 pick but if you love him enough and can't trade down at say 1.05 take your guy

Any thoughts to that?

Because Ebron should have never been considered a top 6 pick either. If this TE class is an all time great there's zero value in taking a TE that highly. I would only consider putting him up that high if he hits an elite landing spot like NO (I currently would take him around 1.12 ish) where he has a reasonable chance to produce like a wr2. If you draft him at 1.5, wait the usual two to three years and get greg olsen I just dont see it as worth it.

Funny cos I see Ebron and Howard as being similar in that neither scored many TDs in college and that has translated so far for Ebron in the pros.

Now Howard is a better player than Ebron I reckon. But for fantasy, I'd rather have Engram.

Ebron is an interesting point. He's an enigma around here, but he's pretty much a perfect example of how TE's are going to develop. The TD's haven't been there, but he's gradually become a bigger and bigger part of Detroit's offense and may breakout next season in Year 4.

Currently, Ebron is going behind the 1.10 in DLF rankings. So, depending on the league, you could get him for a late 1st or early 2nd. I think this is a great TE class, but for the people who are so anxious to take players like Howard and Engram early, reconsider how patient you're going to be for the ride. It takes a while for TE's to become startable fantasy contributors.

[remedy29]

I think the top 7 players in this draft are studs. Best bets are McCathery, Fournette, Davis. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Mike Williams are a little questionable. Howard is in the 4-7 conversation. I'd probably take Howard at 6 over Dalvin Cook, but may change my mind after the draft if Cook is drafted higher than I expect.

[remedy29]

I may end up missing the boat on Howard, but I don't want to spend a mid -1st on him or any other TE for that matter. In general TEs take a while to develop and it usually leads to young TEs depressing in value before they start to rise. I'd much rather let someone spend a high pick on a TE and then look to buy a TE that's been around for a year or two, right before they blossom.

On top of that, if this is supposed to be one of the best TE classes in recent memory (if not ever), all that does is make me less willing to spend a high pick on TE due to the quality options that will be available in the 2nd.

My thought exactly. Probably gonna have to miss out on Howard

Unless you have the 2.02 pick or better, I wouldn't expect Engram and Njoku to be there for you in the 2nd.

[JJDubya]

What hasn't been referenced yet is the fact that you generally only "have" to start one TE, so the position automatically loses importance relative to the other skill positions where the top 8-12 players generally outscore (or come close to outscoring) the top TE. On top of that, the turnover at being a TE1 is a guessing game from year to year. How many had Kyle Rudolph as TE3? Jack Doyle as TE12? TE generally doesn't matter much unless you've got the best one (Gronk), and he comes with his own pitfalls.

I'm not trying to say OJ isn't a legit prospect. He looks to be able to play right away as a great blocker and a great receiver, but it's hard to advocate drafting a position that is unlikely to produce a decent return on your pick (in terms of value, not points scored) and that you can likely purchase when you need the production for about half the price as it takes to draft a "future stud" who may or may not be that.

[jcc6fd]

I don't know if I buy into the whole, since there are other good options at TE why waste your high pick on the best option argument. Seems like flawed logic. There are lots of decent WRs so why should I want OBJ/Brown/Julio/Evans? Well they scores more than the other options, thus making my team better. Engram and Njoku being good options doesn't take away from Howard if he has the talent to be considered in the top 5 picks, unless they are just as talented and are being undervalued.

I think the argument you have to make is that Howard won't help your team be better than the players you'd be willing to draft above him.

[Vcize]

I don't know if I buy into the whole, since there are other good options at TE why waste your high pick on the best option argument. Seems like flawed logic. There are lots of decent WRs so why should I want OBJ/Brown/Julio/Evans? Well they scores more than the other options, thus making my team better. Engram and Njoku being good options doesn't take away from Howard if he has the talent to be considered in the top 5 picks, unless they are just as talented and are being undervalued.

I think the argument you have to make is that Howard won't help your team be better than the players you'd be willing to draft above him.

Yeah I think there is a fallacy in rookie drafts to think "oh I'll just take the next guy and get 90% of the production". That's not really how it works. It's often the difference between an uber stud and a total bust, even though as prospects the second guy seemed only "a little worse".

RG3 isn't giving people 90% of the production of Andrew Luck, but plenty of people were willing to move back a spot because RG3 was almost as good.