O.J. Howard Thread

[clarion contrarion]

good point ^^ ... counterpoint there were 2 TE worth a hoot and last year's draft and I drafted hunter henry 22nd in one league and he went 23rd and 27th in two other leagues I checked . 4 years ago I drafted tyler eifert 9th got impatient and traded him and someone else benefitted from his huge TD season although I was able to reacquire him before the start of 2016.
moral to the story you had better expect to get little for the 1st couple years if you do it should be considered a bonus. If you are not a patient owner you will be better off not drafting rookie TE .

[JJDubya]

I don't know if I buy into the whole, since there are other good options at TE why waste your high pick on the best option argument. Seems like flawed logic. There are lots of decent WRs so why should I want OBJ/Brown/Julio/Evans? Well they scores more than the other options, thus making my team better. Engram and Njoku being good options doesn't take away from Howard if he has the talent to be considered in the top 5 picks, unless they are just as talented and are being undervalued.

I think the argument you have to make is that Howard won't help your team be better than the players you'd be willing to draft above him.

The point is that the turnover at the TE position is impossible to predict compared to other positions. The guys you named? They're expected to be top 5 at the position in any given year (Evans wasn't expected to by many, but he still carried first round startup value). We think we can predict who is going to be good each and every year, and isolate those players that stand out for not being good for whatever reason. Ebron was VERY highly touted coming out among the NFL and fantasy communities, and now there's a lot of talk of him being replaced by another first round TE in this class. Anyhow, I'm not saying don't draft OJ at 1.07, I'm saying I won't because the points are easy to replace compared to other positions and the chance his value increases is pretty limited unless he is a top 3 scorer in his first season and his team's primary receiving option (like Gronk, Graham, Reed and Kelce have been for their respective teams when they placed at (or near) the top of TE scoring).

[jcc6fd]

I don't know if I buy into the whole, since there are other good options at TE why waste your high pick on the best option argument. Seems like flawed logic. There are lots of decent WRs so why should I want OBJ/Brown/Julio/Evans? Well they scores more than the other options, thus making my team better. Engram and Njoku being good options doesn't take away from Howard if he has the talent to be considered in the top 5 picks, unless they are just as talented and are being undervalued.

I think the argument you have to make is that Howard won't help your team be better than the players you'd be willing to draft above him.

The point is that the turnover at the TE position is impossible to predict compared to other positions. The guys you named? They're expected to be top 5 at the position in any given year (Evans wasn't expected to by many, but he still carried first round startup value). We think we can predict who is going to be good each and every year, and isolate those players that stand out for not being good for whatever reason. Ebron was VERY highly touted coming out among the NFL and fantasy communities, and now there's a lot of talk of him being replaced by another first round TE in this class. Anyhow, I'm not saying don't draft OJ at 1.07, I'm saying I won't because the points are easy to replace compared to other positions and the chance his value increases is pretty limited unless he is a top 3 scorer in his first season and his team's primary receiving option (like Gronk, Graham, Reed and Kelce have been for their respective teams when they placed at (or near) the top of TE scoring).

Sure, what you've just said is that you believe there are more than 6 players who can help you win more than him. Fair argument. Saying that Engram and Njoku (also TEs) are also good so don't draft Howard high is a different argument and doesn't hold up logically.

To your point about Ebron, I don't think you can look at one example and generalize his results across all TE prospects. T-Rich was the number 1 RB drafted in 2012, but not all highly rated RBs disappoint. The heat map article kind of shed some light on how random things can be, but still show higher draft picks fair better than later ones. My original question was if Howard is the second offensive skill position player drafted, should he not be considered among the established top 6 draft picks. My reasoning in asking is that I think we might be letting our bias about a whole position class prevent us from grading Howard based on his talent.

To the point about TEs generally not being valuable, I would think someone who could be among the top scorers (not just a TE1 barely scoring more than a TE2, but a legitimate positional advantage) would make that player more valuable, i.e. Gronk was (and to many still is) super valuable because he gave owners an amazing positional advantage. So the question that follows here is do you think Howard possesses the raw talent to be a top scoring TE? Of course prospects flop, but just because he's a TE doesn't necessitate that he will. Do we think that he could be great, and let the odds of that happening determine how highly we'd draft him.

Lastly, I think the point that many have made about the slow development of TEs is a valid one. If any prospect takes years to yield a return for your investment you've lost years of production you could've gotten by drafting someone else. So that may bump all TEs down for you. However I think in the interest of being thorough I think we should look at Howard the individual and ask if he could be productive early in his career. Hunter Henry reminded us it's possible and Howard has much more athletic upside.

[JJDubya]

Although I didn't make the argument in favor of drafting another TE later because the draft is loaded with top-tier talent, I don't think it's illogical. Let's say you have 1.7 and 2.3. At 1.7 you could draft Smith-Schuster, Ross, a RB like Kamara, and Engram or Njoku at 2.3 (presuming one will be there). Flip the script and draft Howard at 1.7 and then one of the 13th -16th ranked WR/RB prospect. Unless you think that the gap between OJ and the next best TE is greater than between Ross/Schuster/Kamara and Perine/Godwin/Henderson, then the argument to wait on TE this year holds up. Personally I may have just convinced myself to reach a little for Howard since I tend to like Perine/Godwin and Henderson just as much as Kamara/Schuster and Kamara. Hate when I have an idea that gets undermined by my own examples. I still think the process overall holds, however.

Draft position can only go so far in determining things. Look at the names of the top 5 TEs from the past 5+ years and you won't find a first rounder among them save for Olsen who was drafted 31st overall by the Bears (and he took maybe 5 years to break out). Where Howard is drafted is more important than when. Gronk and Graham were the top receiving options on their teams when they were lighting things up and had future HOF QBs throwing to them. Howard would need to be in that special situation, with a special QB and being the best receiver on his team in order to be in that conversation. I think that's improbable. Guys picked toward the top half of the draft generally don't go to teams with elite QBs. I think his best bet is to slip to the Browns at 12th overall. He'd be a great red zone weapon for whenever they were able to get there. Anyhow, good topic.

[BuckeyeNation]

Where did Tyler Eifert go in your league the year he was drafted?
He was also the 2nd skill position guy to go off the board in that draft, so that may be a good starting point to considering when/where he may be drafted?

In most of my leagues Eifert went in the 2.05-2.08 range, and Ertz went roughly at the end of the 2nd (12 team leagues).

[clarion contrarion]

I don't know if I buy into the whole, since there are other good options at TE why waste your high pick on the best option argument. Seems like flawed logic. There are lots of decent WRs so why should I want OBJ/Brown/Julio/Evans? Well they scores more than the other options, thus making my team better. Engram and Njoku being good options doesn't take away from Howard if he has the talent to be considered in the top 5 picks, unless they are just as talented and are being undervalued.

I think the argument you have to make is that Howard won't help your team be better than the players you'd be willing to draft above him.

The point is that the turnover at the TE position is impossible to predict compared to other positions. The guys you named? They're expected to be top 5 at the position in any given year (Evans wasn't expected to by many, but he still carried first round startup value). We think we can predict who is going to be good each and every year, and isolate those players that stand out for not being good for whatever reason. Ebron was VERY highly touted coming out among the NFL and fantasy communities, and now there's a lot of talk of him being replaced by another first round TE in this class. Anyhow, I'm not saying don't draft OJ at 1.07, I'm saying I won't because the points are easy to replace compared to other positions and the chance his value increases is pretty limited unless he is a top 3 scorer in his first season and his team's primary receiving option (like Gronk, Graham, Reed and Kelce have been for their respective teams when they placed at (or near) the top of TE scoring).

Sure, what you've just said is that you believe there are more than 6 players who can help you win more than him. Fair argument. Saying that Engram and Njoku (also TEs) are also good so don't draft Howard high is a different argument and doesn't hold up logically.

To your point about Ebron, I don't think you can look at one example and generalize his results across all TE prospects. T-Rich was the number 1 RB drafted in 2012, but not all highly rated RBs disappoint. The heat map article kind of shed some light on how random things can be, but still show higher draft picks fair better than later ones. My original question was if Howard is the second offensive skill position player drafted, should he not be considered among the established top 6 draft picks. My reasoning in asking is that I think we might be letting our bias about a whole position class prevent us from grading Howard based on his talent.

To the point about TEs generally not being valuable, I would think someone who could be among the top scorers (not just a TE1 barely scoring more than a TE2, but a legitimate positional advantage) would make that player more valuable, i.e. Gronk was (and to many still is) super valuable because he gave owners an amazing positional advantage. So the question that follows here is do you think Howard possesses the raw talent to be a top scoring TE? Of course prospects flop, but just because he's a TE doesn't necessitate that he will. Do we think that he could be great, and let the odds of that happening determine how highly we'd draft him.

Lastly, I think the point that many have made about the slow development of TEs is a valid one. If any prospect takes years to yield a return for your investment you've lost years of production you could've gotten by drafting someone else. So that may bump all TEs down for you. However I think in the interest of being thorough I think we should look at Howard the individual and ask if he could be productive early in his career. Hunter Henry reminded us it's possible and Howard has much more athletic upside.

1st of all love the icon and I am hoping for good news about the alien this week for the steelers camp !
second your post is a fine post ! you mentioned the heat map so I did a quick check and noticed ,assuming I made no mistakes ( big assumption at times) the first TE drafted was taken at an average of between 15th & 16th and the if we count only the rookie TE 17th over the last 9 years . That list includes no one by the name of gronkowski graham reed or kelce ! It does include dustin kellar jermaine gresham maxx wiliams & eric ebron . The biggest hit has been eifert ! Situation plays into usage obviously so if howard or engram or njoku go to a great situation they could make immediate contributions but they need to go somewhere the TE gets used - smart veteran qb that has shown a penchant to use a TE . For me the only team drafting really early that qualifies is the saints and I seriously doubt they take a TE in the 1st. The chargers drafted henry last year so that rules them out likely plus everything points to them going with secondary help. Another slight possibility is tennessee as mariota has shown to like walker but there in lies another problem in that even if howard goes there walker is still there and on the same page with the titans young slinger.

This class is better than any before at least in recent memory so yes in my mind that does mean do not force a TE pick , one can almost always find a trade back option if there is no one at 7th or 8th that you like and failing that I default to letting someone else eat the new car depreciation on rookie TE and trying to grab them entering year two or three. I would rather pay up for a proven commodity than expend
premium draft capital on a project.

[GridironGuerilla]

I'll be honest and it may not be the most prudent dynasty decision I've ever made, but I am strongly considering using the 1.06 in one league and the 1.09 in another, my second picks in each league, and grabbing Howard. I'd like to have a piece of this TE class and I'm not concerned with development window an both leagues have taxi squads. Hell, I don't even really need TE's in either league but I have to remind myself that this is a game and it's supposed to be fun. Sometimes you've just gotta d what you need to do to get the guys you want. In my opinion Howard has the best potential for the best career of the players being drafted in that range. Plus, if I miss on an Alvin Kamara, John Ross, or JuJu Smith, I won't be as disappointed in my decision as I will be if I know I had Howard in my sights and passed him up. Just my 2 cents.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The thing with taking Howard early is he's such a projection coming into the NFL. He pretty much has the worst college stats of any good TE coming into the league (although Jordan Reed had middling production as well). The closest comp from a size, athleticism, draft pedigree and college production standpoint would probably be Greg Olsen, and he didn't "break out" until his 6th year in the league. By then, most owners probably have given up and traded him away for less than they paid.

[Pac_Eddy]

The thing with taking Howard early is he's such a projection coming into the NFL. He pretty much has the worst college stats of any good TE coming into the league (although Jordan Reed had middling production as well). The closest comp from a size, athleticism, draft pedigree and college production standpoint would probably be Greg Olsen, and he didn't "break out" until his 6th year in the league. By then, most owners probably have given up and traded him away for less than they paid.

Depends on the landing spot. If he ends up with a top 10 QB, he may produce something year one. If he goes to a team without a franchise QB, his numbers will likely be low until they get one.

[kamihamster]

I'd use a late round 1st (1.10 - 1.12). But I think I'd rather take Engram over Howard because I think he's more likely to produce WR numbers even though he gets the TE designation.

[clarion contrarion]

The thing with taking Howard early is he's such a projection coming into the NFL. He pretty much has the worst college stats of any good TE coming into the league (although Jordan Reed had middling production as well). The closest comp from a size, athleticism, draft pedigree and college production standpoint would probably be Greg Olsen, and he didn't "break out" until his 6th year in the league. By then, most owners probably have given up and traded him away for less than they paid.

olsen or keith jackson drafted 13th overall in 1988 by the eagles after catching 65 balls for 1561 yards and 15 tds as a 4 year starter at wishbone U - Oklahoma 5 time pro bowler - 3 time 1st team all pro.

[Cameron Giles]

The thing with taking Howard early is he's such a projection coming into the NFL. He pretty much has the worst college stats of any good TE coming into the league (although Jordan Reed had middling production as well). The closest comp from a size, athleticism, draft pedigree and college production standpoint would probably be Greg Olsen, and he didn't "break out" until his 6th year in the league. By then, most owners probably have given up and traded him away for less than they paid.

olsen or keith jackson drafted 13th overall in 1988 by the eagles after catching 65 balls for 1561 yards and 15 tds as a 4 year starter at wishbone U - Oklahoma 5 time pro bowler - 3 time 1st team all pro.

Yeah, TE is a tough position to project from college. There's so much that goes into it, and that's why it's a slow developing position. A lot of teams don't involve their TE much in college. In Jordan Reed's case, he actually led Florida in receiving after converting to TE after his freshmen year.

If you're taking Howard early, you better be down for the ride. I notice that a lot of times when TE's break out, it's after they've been sold for significantly lower than their original price.

Kelce could've been had for nothing after his rookie year.
Eifert could've been had for nothing after he got injured.
Reed could've been had for very little.
Olsen took forever to breakout. (Age 27)

Plus, most leagues you only start 1 TE anyway, so the value of the position is crap. You can get by starting TD specialists and waiver wire guys. Someone mentioned Cameron Brate and Jack Doyle. Kyle Rudolph resurrected from the dead last year. Delanie Walker has been cheap for the longest.

You can justify taking Howard from a talent standpoint, but like I said...you have to be willing to wait and wait before these players are actually starters in a fantasy lineup.

[TheChicken]

Most leagues allow you to start 2 TEs and you need to balance having a viable starter, injury/bye week cover, the points you expect your TEs to score per week versus your WR/RB in any flex spot. You also need to take into account rookie development, average time a TE lasts in the league, ceiling and floor and future trade value.

With all the above a consideration for me, your league settings and tenancies of fellow mangers in your league is pretty crucial. Where i would take be in my leagues is different to where i would take him in your league.

[maxhyde]

The NFL is much less patient than they were even 20 years ago but for sure for 30+ years. High draft picks get on the field early in almost every case and are handed chances to contribute.
If he goes top 10 he will be playing and given opportunity

[Phaded]

I refuse to take a TE in the first round. So I would take him in the 2nd if he were there.

I'll let someone else draft him and wait a couple years for a chance at relevance.