Dante Pettis ... What Is Happening?

[Sterling Archer]

It's hard to be a target monster with a TE like Kittle, not to mention an offense that throws to RBs. He will have to be Baldwin/Tyreek level efficient to really smash. I think he will make a great WR3 though.

That's an odd take. It's not like Kittle is commanding 150 targets. Also, SF ranks 17th in RB targets. It's not difficult to envision a scenario where Pettis gets 120-130 targets which could yield WR1/2 numbers depending on his yards after catch, which appear to be pretty good.

I'm not projecting fringe WR1 numbers for him, but it doesn't seem like a terrible stretch given the lack of competition for targets. Goodwin and Garcon are role players at best. The only real threat would be the draft, but this team has plenty of other needs. The FA class looks very weak.

[Krypto_King]

It's hard to be a target monster with a TE like Kittle, not to mention an offense that throws to RBs. He will have to be Baldwin/Tyreek level efficient to really smash. I think he will make a great WR3 though.

Some indirect misinformation here.

- Kittle has received double-digit targets in a week only three times this season. I don't think this qualifies as 'target monster'.

- Kyle Shanahan has a history of stuffing his starting X-receiver's stat-sheet, provided he has one that can actually do the job. See: Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon (Skins era), Julio Jones. Lots of 100+ reception seasons. Each of these players posted their career best receptions total in a season with Shanahan calling the plays.

Shanahan has had several true target monsters in his coaching history, and to date they've always been versatile wide-receivers that primarily play X, but can move around the formation and work on all three levels. Disclaimer: however, he's never had a pass-catching TE in his prime as good as Kittle, so we'll see.

It was Pettis I said who wasn't going to be a target monster but while we're on it, Kittle is 18th in the NFL in targets with 122, which is absolutely a target monster for the Tight End position. Point #2 I see it as Kyle Shanahan maximizes the talent he has to work with.

It's hard to be a target monster with a TE like Kittle, not to mention an offense that throws to RBs. He will have to be Baldwin/Tyreek level efficient to really smash. I think he will make a great WR3 though.

That's an odd take. It's not like Kittle is commanding 150 targets. Also, SF ranks 17th in RB targets. It's not difficult to envision a scenario where Pettis gets 120-130 targets which could yield WR1/2 numbers depending on his yards after catch, which appear to be pretty good.

I'm not projecting fringe WR1 numbers for him, but it doesn't seem like a terrible stretch given the lack of competition for targets. Goodwin and Garcon are role players at best. The only real threat would be the draft, but this team has plenty of other needs. The FA class looks very weak.

Again, Kittle has a 24% target share in that offense. That is huge. Of teams around or above SF in total tight end targets (PHI, KC, IND, WAS, OAK, BAL, GB) there are 3 high volume receivers in Hill, Hilton, and Davante and in all 3 of those cases there is a black hole at receivers 3-5 on the depth chart. The rest don't even have a true #2 option. I believe SF is 14th in RB targets and by market share jumps to something like 11th, without their best RB weapon in Mckinnon. I think that certainly qualifies as a team that throws to RBs.


The argument for Pettis hitting high volume is that Godwin and whomever else is playing WR across from him next year are complete zeroes. You could also say that better QB play and hopefully an improved defense could lead to more plays and more passes overall. Maybe these circumstances hit but personally I'm not counting on it at this time.

[Titans95]

It's hard to be a target monster with a TE like Kittle, not to mention an offense that throws to RBs. He will have to be Baldwin/Tyreek level efficient to really smash. I think he will make a great WR3 though.

Some indirect misinformation here.

- Kittle has received double-digit targets in a week only three times this season. I don't think this qualifies as 'target monster'.

- Kyle Shanahan has a history of stuffing his starting X-receiver's stat-sheet, provided he has one that can actually do the job. See: Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon (Skins era), Julio Jones. Lots of 100+ reception seasons. Each of these players posted their career best receptions total in a season with Shanahan calling the plays.

Shanahan has had several true target monsters in his coaching history, and to date they've always been versatile wide-receivers that primarily play X, but can move around the formation and work on all three levels. Disclaimer: however, he's never had a pass-catching TE in his prime as good as Kittle, so we'll see.

It was Pettis I said who wasn't going to be a target monster but while we're on it, Kittle is 18th in the NFL in targets with 122, which is absolutely a target monster for the Tight End position. Point #2 I see it as Kyle Shanahan maximizes the talent he has to work with.

It's hard to be a target monster with a TE like Kittle, not to mention an offense that throws to RBs. He will have to be Baldwin/Tyreek level efficient to really smash. I think he will make a great WR3 though.

That's an odd take. It's not like Kittle is commanding 150 targets. Also, SF ranks 17th in RB targets. It's not difficult to envision a scenario where Pettis gets 120-130 targets which could yield WR1/2 numbers depending on his yards after catch, which appear to be pretty good.

I'm not projecting fringe WR1 numbers for him, but it doesn't seem like a terrible stretch given the lack of competition for targets. Goodwin and Garcon are role players at best. The only real threat would be the draft, but this team has plenty of other needs. The FA class looks very weak.

Again, Kittle has a 24% target share in that offense. That is huge. Of teams around or above SF in total tight end targets (PHI, KC, IND, WAS, OAK, BAL, GB) there are 3 high volume receivers in Hill, Hilton, and Davante and in all 3 of those cases there is a black hole at receivers 3-5 on the depth chart. The rest don't even have a true #2 option. I believe SF is 14th in RB targets and by market share jumps to something like 11th, without their best RB weapon in Mckinnon. I think that certainly qualifies as a team that throws to RBs.


The argument for Pettis hitting high volume is that Godwin and whomever else is playing WR across from him next year are complete zeroes. You could also say that better QB play and hopefully an improved defense could lead to more plays and more passes overall. Maybe these circumstances hit but personally I'm not counting on it at this time.

All of your points make since from a mathematical standpoint of everything was the same from this year in 2019. A lot can change like you said but you left out one crucial factor that we can't quantify. MAYBE Pettis is a really really good WR and takes a huge step forward next year, Like you said, Shanahan knows how to maximize talent. What if Pettis jumps ahead of McKinnon and the RB's and is neck and neck with Kittle for targets because he is that good? He's a rookie this year so the hope is he improves. If he doesn't then yes all he is is a deep threat that will never garner targets.

Just pointing out a fact that target shares can change drastically with an offense that's in such shambles like the Niners are right now.

I do agree however that Pettis is unlikely to garner elite target counts but if he can get 80-85 receptions on the year with his Yards Per Catch then we could easily see a statline of 80/1200/8 which would be very nice.

[Krypto_King]

I love and own Pettis, I am just cautioning against flying super high on him in a re-draft setting. It is possible but also very difficult to be a fantasy stud when you have a stud TE and decent RB usage without a pass crazy offense. We don't even know he if he will be the #1 WR option over Godwin when everyone is healthy

[ninotoreS]

This seemed to be the most recent moderately popular Pettis thread to bump.

https://www.49ers.com/news/6-notes-from ... conference

The 49ers continue to have huge expectations of Pettis as he enters his second NFL season. San Francisco's second-round pick came on strong at the end of his rookie campaign and ended 2018 with 467 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

"We loved the way he closed this season," Lynch said. "There's some maturation that I think is naturally going to come in terms of putting some girth on and some strength. I think this offseason is very important for him."

Few observations.

- Both Shanahan and Lynch have now recently spoken up to shoot down rumors that the Niners have interest in Antonio Brown. Could be smoke and mirrors, though. But Pittsburgh has confirmed that three teams have expressed serious interest in Brown, and unless Kyle and John outright lied to reporters, the Niners aren't one of those three teams. Assuming they aren't planning on swooping for Brown late, perhaps optimism in Pettis (and their other young WRs) is the reason why SF feels no urgency to go after Brown.

- I have to note that the statement "The 49ers continue to have huge expectations of Pettis" seems to be an unsourced characterization by the article's writer, Joe Fann. Is that just Fann's opinion as a beat reporter, or is he passing along sentiments clearly articulated to him by the coaching staff? It's unclear.

- I'm pleased to see Lynch indicating that getting Pettis bulked up some is specific to their plan for his development. A classic Shanahan #1 WR target hog needs to be tough enough to endure being tackled over a hundred times a season. I'm thinking if the plan were for Pettis to be a complementary target, then Lynch would be less concerned about Pettis adding "girth." I know I'm extrapolating here from vague implication.

[Prison_Mike]

I genuinely to not understand this Dante Pettis situation

(loose) Timeline:

- This offseason, it was reported that the 49ers have HUGE plans for Pettis
- About a month later, the public criticism & challenging of Pettis started
- "He's still trying to earn a role on this team and show what he's capable of doing, consistently." - Shanahan
- Then the final depth chart comes out, Pettis is listed as WR1
- Week 1: PLAYS 2 SNAPS (1 target, 1 catch, 7 yards)

This makes no sense to me.
Anyone have any idea what to make of these Shanahanigans?

[problemsolver]

Maybe its all part of Pettis' master plan to end up on the Patriots.

[jcc6fd]

I think anything after the coach publicly criticized him combined with all the bad camp reports was just posturing. He wasn't good and naming him the nominal No 1 on the depth chart due to veteran status (as a sophmore) didn't really mean anything. They drafted Deebo to do the same thing but better. I don't buy the injury excuse. He's a reserve option.

[Prison_Mike]

Maybe its all part of Pettis' master plan to end up on the Patriots.

lol that must be it

[TimeWillTell]

I think anything after the coach publicly criticized him combined with all the bad camp reports was just posturing. He wasn't good and naming him the nominal No 1 on the depth chart due to veteran status (as a sophmore) didn't really mean anything. They drafted Deebo to do the same thing but better. I don't buy the injury excuse. He's a reserve option.

Yeah this is where I'm leaning as well. I'm just hoping he has a couple good games so I can try to get a 2nd out of him.

[CubfanAA]

I think this is going to play out a lot like Boyds career. Both looked pretty good as rookies when they got chances. Both teams drafted a WR pretty high in the draft before the sophomore season. Boyd completely lost usage his second season after a bad offseason, but still looked pretty good when actually getting chances in 2nd year. Pettis had a bad offseason and has seemingly lost his usage, but did get a reception while only being out on 2 snaps. Boyd took off in year 3 (like lots of WRs). We'll see how Pettis responds, but his route running is good enough I expect him to eventually take off as well.

[Prison_Mike]

I think this is going to play out a lot like Boyds career. Both looked pretty good as rookies when they got chances. Both teams drafted a WR pretty high in the draft before the sophomore season. Boyd completely lost usage his second season after a bad offseason, but still looked pretty good when actually getting chances in 2nd year. Pettis had a bad offseason and has seemingly lost his usage, but did get a reception while only being out on 2 snaps. Boyd took off in year 3 (like lots of WRs). We'll see how Pettis responds, but his route running is good enough I expect him to eventually take off as well.

I could see that - Might just open a buy (very) low window for him

[Goddard]

I think Jimmy G might be more of the problem than Pettis. I've been trying to temper people's expectations all off season with Pettis, but I also didn't expect Jimmy to look that bad. Just one game for now, but I wouldn't trust any WR on that team.

[sloth8u]

pettis will be fine....this unit has not played together. give it some time. its week 1

[Prison_Mike]

pettis will be fine....this unit has not played together. give it some time. its week 1

Sure, I wouldn't be nearly as concerned if he'd played the whole game and went for 3 catches & 27 yards. That happens.

My concern is the offseason mini-circus that somehow led to him playing 2 snaps lol