New Gurley Usage

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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:39 am

Kmani6 wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:45 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:39 am
Kmani6 wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:38 am
Rams Oline = garbage compared to last year. I think Gurley is still nice, and is even a potential buy low, but I guess I’m one of few. Gurley’s sophomore year was way worse production wise/efficiency wise, and the next year he went insane. I get the rams are more cautious now, but I still like him Next year, and I think that’s just better for his long term production. Way better to manage a player this way, then to have a player fall off a cliff like so many RBs do. For a “major injury”, and a terrible oline that has Goff looking like he does, I’ll take his ~1150 yards and 13 TD’s year long projection, and hope he bounces back next year.
The thing is, though, is this injury only gets worse. How long term do you think he can produce? The chances are, next year, his production declines even more from this year, it's just the reality of this situation. I fully expect Henderson to be more involved next year, too. He's never going to get back to where he was a few years ago, and in all likelihood, this year is his new ceiling. I'm not sure how he "bounces back from this season to his old production. Gurley's sophomore year to the next year is not really relevant anymore. The situation is completely different. He was a healthy young RB then, and came into a system that was new and that the NFL wasn't completely ready for. Now Gurley is dealing with a chronic injury, and the NFL has in large part, caught up to McVay's system.
27 touches last week is showing me this injury is not actually getting worse as dramatically as people try to make it out to be. I think people are overreacting terribly to the injury and not realizing that he’s 25 and genetically superior. I think they started him slow and have picked up since, which makes a lot of sense given the capital they have invested into him.

If the injury was really as degenerative as people make it out to be over the season the opposite would’ve happened and we’d expect more missed games +receive fewer touches now at the end of the season. The NFL schedule is already brutal for RB’s, but Here we are 3 months in, and Gurley has gotten 27, 20, and 28 touches 3 of his last 4 weeks- that should tell us all something and should be a red flag and tell us more about his chronic degenerative injury - it’s very manageable.

I have watched almost every rams games and basically what I am saying is their o-line has been really way worse than what it was before last year, which is way bigger of a contribution to Gurley’s fantasy production than his injury is in my opinion.

I also didn’t say Gurley would resume his old status, I think you have misinterpreted what I was saying with his sophomore slump. Rookie year he played great, but the o-line really struggled during that sophomore campaign and his numbers look like a total joke/anomaly. The point is that he was able to go from 1200 yards, 6 TDs to 2100 and 19, with the majority of that being line play/whole offensive producing way better in general, which is a pretty big statistical example of a HEALTHY Gurley performing in this way. Therefore, I tried to remove the health factor and explain this.
We'll see. If he was really that "genetically superior", why did he get a degenerative condition so quickly, when loads of players have ACL injuries don't? The reality is, it is going to get worse. That's a fact. How much worse, isn't. Next year it will be worse than this year, and the year after worse again. We know this. The Rams are fighting for their playoff lives, so they are giving him more touches. They really have to pay him this year and next, and then it's not such an albatross around their neck.

Gurley has done fairly well, but I still expect this to be his ceiling. Henderson will get more work next year, that's almost a given, and I really don't know how much they can improve their OL by next year. Maybe FA, but they are cap strapped, and rookies don't generally walk in and play extremely well. Especially when they aren't first rounders, and the Rams don't have a first rounder.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:58 am

Late season touches are the worst. Rams are gonna use and abuse ol' Gurleys bum knees next few weeks and possibly not even gonna make the playoffs. Which would be a good thing for all his delusional owners, cuz every carry is one step closer to the scrapheap.

I called this back in the off-season, when the Rams were sending out all kinds of mixed signals and smoke and mirrors.

I feel bad for Gurley, btw. Though he did get Lucky in signing that contract when he did.

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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Goddard » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:02 am

ArrylT wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:57 pm
Food for thought - for all the injury concerns - Todd Gurley has only missed 1 game unlike a whole slew of other players, and that does not include all the players who have been unlucky to go on IR in recent weeks. Further since the Rams Bye in Week 9 - he has been an RB1 (W10-14) in ppr.
Not to nitpick, but he's only been a RB1 during that span because 8 other RBs had a bye in between those weeks. If you do average points, he's RB15. Still not terrible, but it would make him a RB2...which is kind of how I view him these days. He'll still put up RB1 numbers some weeks, but he's no guarantee to do it at a consistent weekly pace.

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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:03 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:58 am
Late season touches are the worst. Rams are gonna use and abuse ol' Gurleys bum knees next few weeks and possibly not even gonna make the playoffs. Which would be a good thing for all his delusional owners, cuz every carry is one step closer to the scrapheap.

I called this back in the off-season, when the Rams were sending out all kinds of mixed signals and smoke and mirrors.

I feel bad for Gurley, btw. Though he did get Lucky in signing that contract when he did.
To be fair, the Rams are on the hook next year as well, so they could obviously do the same thing. Lighter touches early on, and ride him into the ground late in the year. It's not really that important to them how Gurley is in 2021, as they can get out much easier from the contract at that point. It would be 8 million in dead cap. 4 million after 2021.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby nathanq42 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:20 am

They are dumb for riding him late... If they use him early when he is 100% fresh then they can shut him down for a couple week after there get off to a good start, then he will be fresh again for the push at the end of the season. Why wait until youre a the edge of the playoff picture to play him? And its not like he was getting 0 touches each week during the season when he wasn't getting force fed... Silly management of Gurley. Im happy for him that he got paid though.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Kmani6 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:05 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:39 am
Kmani6 wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:45 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:39 am


The thing is, though, is this injury only gets worse. How long term do you think he can produce? The chances are, next year, his production declines even more from this year, it's just the reality of this situation. I fully expect Henderson to be more involved next year, too. He's never going to get back to where he was a few years ago, and in all likelihood, this year is his new ceiling. I'm not sure how he "bounces back from this season to his old production. Gurley's sophomore year to the next year is not really relevant anymore. The situation is completely different. He was a healthy young RB then, and came into a system that was new and that the NFL wasn't completely ready for. Now Gurley is dealing with a chronic injury, and the NFL has in large part, caught up to McVay's system.
27 touches last week is showing me this injury is not actually getting worse as dramatically as people try to make it out to be. I think people are overreacting terribly to the injury and not realizing that he’s 25 and genetically superior. I think they started him slow and have picked up since, which makes a lot of sense given the capital they have invested into him.

If the injury was really as degenerative as people make it out to be over the season the opposite would’ve happened and we’d expect more missed games +receive fewer touches now at the end of the season. The NFL schedule is already brutal for RB’s, but Here we are 3 months in, and Gurley has gotten 27, 20, and 28 touches 3 of his last 4 weeks- that should tell us all something and should be a red flag and tell us more about his chronic degenerative injury - it’s very manageable.

I have watched almost every rams games and basically what I am saying is their o-line has been really way worse than what it was before last year, which is way bigger of a contribution to Gurley’s fantasy production than his injury is in my opinion.

I also didn’t say Gurley would resume his old status, I think you have misinterpreted what I was saying with his sophomore slump. Rookie year he played great, but the o-line really struggled during that sophomore campaign and his numbers look like a total joke/anomaly. The point is that he was able to go from 1200 yards, 6 TDs to 2100 and 19, with the majority of that being line play/whole offensive producing way better in general, which is a pretty big statistical example of a HEALTHY Gurley performing in this way. Therefore, I tried to remove the health factor and explain this.
We'll see. If he was really that "genetically superior", why did he get a degenerative condition so quickly, when loads of players have ACL injuries don't? The reality is, it is going to get worse. That's a fact. How much worse, isn't. Next year it will be worse than this year, and the year after worse again. We know this. The Rams are fighting for their playoff lives, so they are giving him more touches. They really have to pay him this year and next, and then it's not such an albatross around their neck.

Gurley has done fairly well, but I still expect this to be his ceiling. Henderson will get more work next year, that's almost a given, and I really don't know how much they can improve their OL by next year. Maybe FA, but they are cap strapped, and rookies don't generally walk in and play extremely well. Especially when they aren't first rounders, and the Rams don't have a first rounder.
Genetically superior to 99 percent of humans by being an elite NFL RB. People are comparing his knees to a 60 year old woman with 2 knee replacements. He’s averaging 17 touches a game which by no means is bad.

You are making a lot of assumptions as well, by assuming their oline won’t improve, and that Henderson is certain to get more work, or that Gurley is definitely going to get worse. If anything, based on what I’ve seen from Henderson this year, he looks pretty bad, and is already terribly undersized.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby CGW » Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:27 am

Even if he is not genetically superior, he has the assets and time commitment to get significantly better medical treatment than any of us could imagine. Thinking his leg will fall off over the course of a year is silly. Degenerative doesn't mean instant degrading of his joints, and there isn't a cookie cutter timeframe. He could play at this level for years, or maybe he has another knee injury next week and is done. We don't know. What I do know is that I'll never be able to trade him for what he's worth.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:14 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:58 am
Late season touches are the worst. Rams are gonna use and abuse ol' Gurleys bum knees next few weeks and possibly not even gonna make the playoffs. Which would be a good thing for all his delusional owners, cuz every carry is one step closer to the scrapheap.

I called this back in the off-season, when the Rams were sending out all kinds of mixed signals and smoke and mirrors.

I feel bad for Gurley, btw. Though he did get Lucky in signing that contract when he did.
Lol. Hey you're back! I remember you from the off season haha :lol:

None of us are bleep doctors.. well possibly some of us. But none of us are Gurley's doctors.

All we can do is go off what Gurley himself and his doctors have said yes he has arthritis but it's not like your grandad arthritis this is very different and is mostly a pain tolerance thing. There is no likelyhood he has a gore type career. But 2 3 maybe 4 more years after this season of good solid production is extremely likely.

All you "I CALLED IT GURLEY IS DONE. ALL HAIL KING HENDERSON" were just so obsessed with being first and having a hot take.

It's just not anything more than wild speculation.

Yea they trimmed his Carries in the early part of the season, they thought they were a superbowl contender that's a smart move clearly it's back fired a bit they may miss the playoffs.

Gurley is fine. The only people reporting he isnt are just us fantasy geeks and basement dwelling bloggers or hot take losers like skip bayless
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Vcize » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:49 pm

The guy basically went from the number 1 overall fantasy asset to middling less effective workload managed RB2 overnight at exactly the time he aggravated the knee injury last year.

I mean I guess it's possible that it's just purely coincidence that right after the injury the Rams offensive line just happened to get a lot worse that same night and McVay just suddenly had an epiphany that he should manage Gurley's workload that same night and decided they should use him as a receiver much less that same night despite him being the same guy all along, but that seems like quite a stretch to me.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:19 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:58 am
Late season touches are the worst. Rams are gonna use and abuse ol' Gurleys bum knees next few weeks and possibly not even gonna make the playoffs. Which would be a good thing for all his delusional owners, cuz every carry is one step closer to the scrapheap.

I called this back in the off-season, when the Rams were sending out all kinds of mixed signals and smoke and mirrors.

I feel bad for Gurley, btw. Though he did get Lucky in signing that contract when he did.
what did you call? that gurley would only miss one game and be low rb1/high rb2?

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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Kmani6 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:41 pm

Vcize wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:49 pm
The guy basically went from the number 1 overall fantasy asset to middling less effective workload managed RB2 overnight at exactly the time he aggravated the knee injury last year.

I mean I guess it's possible that it's just purely coincidence that right after the injury the Rams offensive line just happened to get a lot worse that same night and McVay just suddenly had an epiphany that he should manage Gurley's workload that same night and decided they should use him as a receiver much less that same night despite him being the same guy all along, but that seems like quite a stretch to me.
This tells me you watch zero games. How about we look at PFF graded Rams Oline 31st through 9 games this year (can’t find data for any later games, but I’m sure you know more than them).

Let’s also consider that the rams had o-line changes in the offseason, and then consider Goff’s QB play, which has fallen from 32 TDs and 12 picks to 15 TDs and 14 picks within that same year. Did Goff get significantly injured in the offseason too?
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby PR0v3 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:49 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:14 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:58 am
Late season touches are the worst. Rams are gonna use and abuse ol' Gurleys bum knees next few weeks and possibly not even gonna make the playoffs. Which would be a good thing for all his delusional owners, cuz every carry is one step closer to the scrapheap.

I called this back in the off-season, when the Rams were sending out all kinds of mixed signals and smoke and mirrors.

I feel bad for Gurley, btw. Though he did get Lucky in signing that contract when he did.
Lol. Hey you're back! I remember you from the off season haha :lol:

None of us are bleep doctors.. well possibly some of us. But none of us are Gurley's doctors.

All we can do is go off what Gurley himself and his doctors have said yes he has arthritis but it's not like your grandad arthritis this is very different and is mostly a pain tolerance thing. There is no likelyhood he has a gore type career. But 2 3 maybe 4 more years after this season of good solid production is extremely likely.

All you "I CALLED IT GURLEY IS DONE. ALL HAIL KING HENDERSON" were just so obsessed with being first and having a hot take.

It's just not anything more than wild speculation.

Yea they trimmed his Carries in the early part of the season, they thought they were a superbowl contender that's a smart move clearly it's back fired a bit they may miss the playoffs.

Gurley is fine. The only people reporting he isnt are just us fantasy geeks and basement dwelling bloggers or hot take losers like skip bayless
Yea this is spot on. Gurley clearly has a knee condition, but it isn't a huge problem.

Last year, he was overworked and broke down at the end of the year.

This year, he was conserved with the expectations of unleashing him in the playoffs, but now that he is needed they are using him.

The reason why he hasn't produced is because of managed touches and a terrible o-line. He's not going to be putting up the numbers he did the last two seasons, but he is playing fine and he is not going anywhere.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:15 pm

I will also add that on the flip side none of truly knowing any of the specifics including me that it IS also possible Gurley is totally done and he is running on bald tires about to pop hoping to get a ring before he retires in the off season. I don't personally find that likely but the Gurley isndone guys may also be right, but if they are it will be just dumb luck.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:45 pm

Not sure Henderson's usage will see a major uptick in 2020. Both Gurley and Brown are back.
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Re: New Gurley Usage

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:21 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:45 pm
Not sure Henderson's usage will see a major uptick in 2020. Both Gurley and Brown are back.
Not sure, but I'd expect it. Not every rookie gains trust and familiarity in the system year 1. The effectively traded two 3rds for him, and he has shown explosiveness in limited action. I would be very surprised if he wasn't involved next year.
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