Players to target Point per 1st Down (Completion/Rushing/Receiving)

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shivaji
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Players to target Point per 1st Down (Completion/Rushing/Receiving)

Postby shivaji » Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:50 pm

Folks - I hope that this is the right place to post this question. I am in a 14 players league with the following player positions and also scoring. This is a auction league so I have flexibility to target the players that may benefit the scoring.

I am kind of new and would love for the experts give me advise on how I should approach the auction? Should I target for RB/WR/QB with 80% of by budget? I will take whatever to have to offer as advise.

Roster:
QB, RB, WR, W/R/T, W/R/T/QB, IDP 1, IDP 2 (IDP can be DL, LB, DB and only one from each category can be played), 2 Bench spots

Scoring (I just listed below that are different. Rest are same as Yahoo's traditional league settings )
Completions: 0.5
Passing yards: 20 yards per point; 5 points at 300 yards; 10 points at 400 yards
Passing TD: 4 pts

Reception: 1 point
Passing 1st downs: 1 point
Receiving 1downs: 1 points
Rushing 1 downs: i points

DynoScout
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Re: Players to target Point per 1st Down (Completion/Rushing/Receiving)

Postby DynoScout » Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:26 am

In a similar setting league (mine is 2QB vs your Superflex), the QBs are the queens of the chessboard and hands-down the most valuable assets.
In my league passing first downs are worth less, I believe .2 or .25 per passing first down. We did this because NFL teams average between 8-17 passing first downs per game with most in the 10-14 range. If all passing first downs are all throw by one QB, you're really boosting their scoring.

So in this setting QBs should be your foundation. I would target two in my first three picks. In my league I prefer rushing QBs like Cam, Lamar, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray because they get the baseline passing first down points, but also get the higher value rushing first downs. In your setting, where 1 passing first down is worth the same as a rushing first down and there is a .5 per completion, QB rushing first downs are going to be relatively less important than my league, but probably still meaningful. If people gobble them up before you have a chance then you probably want QBs with high efficiency pass games (high number of completions) or attached to non-existent run games. Jameis Winston could be an under the radar QB target because the TB offense doesn't project to efficiently generate rushing first downs.

Among the position players, most "money players" produce a lot of first downs. Hopkins had 80ish first downs last year, Michael Thomas had 75ish. Zeke ran for 75ish and caught some more. A RB who gets a lot of 3rd and short conversions but still adds some first down catches produces more points than a comparable receiver in terms of year 1 production (ignoring longevity-based value).

The TE position may be a place where this setting significantly boosts the top end guys and separates them from "Late Round TE" options. Kelce had 68 receiving first downs last year, the same number as JJSS, and 8 more than George Kittle. For context a guy like Mark Andrews had fewer than 30 first down receptions last year.

Hope this helps, good luck!
-DynoScout

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Pet_Smith
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Re: Players to target Point per 1st Down (Completion/Rushing/Receiving)

Postby Pet_Smith » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:06 am

Some great tips there from DynoScout, I really don't have much to add.

I'd double down on his points about QB's though - passing FD for 1 point is huge. See if you can dig out how many first downs each got, but I imagine some of the older guys would get bumped in this format. TB12 always seems to get a lot of 1st downs each game, for example, so you could be able to target two "mid-range" QB's who are relatively undervalued? Do you have the scoring for everyone from last year in these settings?

And that brings me on to the RB's - the 3rd down backs probably need a boost outside of the 'money' players mentioned (Gurley and CMC both in the 90's for FD's).
James white, for example hit 60 1st downs last year. 22 rushing and 38 receiving (and 19+ receiving every year for the last 4 years), whilst Edelman only got around 40?

And although it's PPR so you're looking at slot guys, you might want to look at the big threat guys like Golladay, where every reception is likely to be a 1st down, so they're effectively getting 2PPR?
Dynasty - 9th year, 12-team, Standard scoring, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 1K, 1DE/DT, 1LB, 1CB/S - 25man roster / 6 Taxi Squad
'17 Champ, '18 Runner Up, '23 rebuild

QB Watson, A Richardson, O' Connel (TS)
RB Gibbs, Akers, Dillon Carter, Bigsby, Chase Brown, Mcintosh, Tucker, Hull (TS)
WR Metcalf, DJ Moore, Addison, Meyers, Van Jefferson, Collins, Claypool, Mingo (TS), Hyatt (TS), Wilson (TS)
TE Higbee, Freirmuth, Otton (TS)
K Joseph
DE/DT Hunter
LB Franklin Simmons
C/S James

1.01, 1.04


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