Dynasty League Football Forum

Dynasty24 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:23 pm Are you buying at his current ADP of 43 in startup drafts? I think that equates to roughly RB13

sugbear65 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:46 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:38 am I want to purchase and NFL team just so I could give Sankey 20 touches a game for half a season and see what happens.

Oh man, I wish you would. He may be one of my biggest whiffs in dynasty, I bought him all over thinking he was going to be the next McCoy. I lost a ton of cumulative value on him. BUT, I still stand by the stance he was never given a fair shake in Tennessee, and when he did play he varied between passable to actually kinda good. I still can't understand why he's not gotten more of a shot from anyone, but I have come to accept it's unlikely he does.

DrNoish wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:35 am I just scored Demarco in a trade for team two. Would you try to move the 1.06 for Henry?

DrNoish wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:35 am I just scored Demarco in a trade for team two. Would you try to move the 1.06 for Henry?

DrNoish wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:35 am I just scored Demarco in a trade for team two. Would you try to move the 1.06 for Henry?

Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.

jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pm

Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.

I don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).

Balzac wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 am

jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pm

Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.

I don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).

Agreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.

Dynasty24 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:59 pm

Balzac wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 am

jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pm

I don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).

Agreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.

This is my thought as well. In these rounds I'm looking for guys that will increase in value. The only way I see it truly backfiring is if Demarco sticks around and starts next year and the year after.

My other thought is everyone agrees on trading the 1.06 for Henry but questions picking him at 43. Mike Williams is the current 1.06 and his startup ADP is 50. Is the 7 spots really that big of a difference?

Valhalla wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 pm Although I follow your line of thinking (in drafting him around then because he has a good shot to increase in value), it assumes that there aren't other players in that range that can ALSO increase substantially in value and can be justified to have a higher chance at providing big time production in 2017 as well...
A guy like Stefon Diggs or Corey Coleman comes to mind.
Henry is decent value in that range, I just don't see myself getting him if Diggs or Coleman are there, as they have a more open shot to help win in 2017 (imminent year's value is often undervalued) and also carry a chance at a nice value spike with a productive year.

Valhalla wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 pm

Dynasty24 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:59 pm

Balzac wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 am

Agreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.

This is my thought as well. In these rounds I'm looking for guys that will increase in value. The only way I see it truly backfiring is if Demarco sticks around and starts next year and the year after.

My other thought is everyone agrees on trading the 1.06 for Henry but questions picking him at 43. Mike Williams is the current 1.06 and his startup ADP is 50. Is the 7 spots really that big of a difference?

Although I follow your line of thinking (in drafting him around then because he has a good shot to increase in value), it assumes that there aren't other players in that range that can ALSO increase substantially in value and can be justified to have a higher chance at providing big time production in 2017 as well...
A guy like Stefon Diggs or Corey Coleman comes to mind.
Henry is decent value in that range, I just don't see myself getting him if Diggs or Coleman are there, as they have a more open shot to help win in 2017 (imminent year's value is often undervalued) and also carry a chance at a nice value spike with a productive year.