Re: Derrick Henry
Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:33 pm
https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/
https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/viewtopic.php?t=188793
That makes at least three of us. He wasn't just a metrics specimen. He actually performed on the field, running more effectively up the gut than their up the gut rb on the team. He should have been schemed to run more in space and wasn't allowed to, yet he was still decent. The coaches just hated him though. It seems he couldn't catch on with any other coaching staff either.sugbear65 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:46 amOh man, I wish you would. He may be one of my biggest whiffs in dynasty, I bought him all over thinking he was going to be the next McCoy. I lost a ton of cumulative value on him. BUT, I still stand by the stance he was never given a fair shake in Tennessee, and when he did play he varied between passable to actually kinda good. I still can't understand why he's not gotten more of a shot from anyone, but I have come to accept it's unlikely he does.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:38 am I want to purchase and NFL team just so I could give Sankey 20 touches a game for half a season and see what happens.
I don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.
Agreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pmI don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.
This is my thought as well. In these rounds I'm looking for guys that will increase in value. The only way I see it truly backfiring is if Demarco sticks around and starts next year and the year after.Balzac wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 amAgreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pmI don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).Valhalla wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 pm The more I think about it, 43 is very high for Henry and at that price assumes he will likely take over as the season goes on. I don't think that happens, so I wouldn't pay it. He does have stand alone value as a possibly decent flex play, and has the upside of a #1 rb, so I get it. Decent flex with massive upside equals overpaying for the flex. It's a risk reward to pay that price, though. Since I believe Murray remains the majority runner all year, in my eyes either Murray gets injured and you bought cheap at 43, or you have a decent flex play and overpaid for it at 43. I don't like counting on an injury to win my drafts. There would likely be someone I see as an auto value at 43 (someone I believe is falling) so I won't likely own Henry in startups...unless he falls.
Although I follow your line of thinking (in drafting him around then because he has a good shot to increase in value), it assumes that there aren't other players in that range that can ALSO increase substantially in value and can be justified to have a higher chance at providing big time production in 2017 as well...Dynasty24 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:59 pmThis is my thought as well. In these rounds I'm looking for guys that will increase in value. The only way I see it truly backfiring is if Demarco sticks around and starts next year and the year after.Balzac wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:59 amAgreed. At Henry's current pace if Murray moves out of Tenn next year then Henry's value will skyrocket to ~top 10 RB. Take him at 43 and sell at 20 or whatever.jtd1387 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:15 pm
I don't think taking him at 43 assumes he takes over this season. If I think Murray is more likely to be gone than not next season, taking him at 43 is an easy decision for me. He will be at least pushing round 2 startup value next offseason if he is lined up as the starter going into the season. I'll take those odds of a significant value increase, even if I can't start him this year (not to mention the added bonus you get this year of Murray goes down).
My other thought is everyone agrees on trading the 1.06 for Henry but questions picking him at 43. Mike Williams is the current 1.06 and his startup ADP is 50. Is the 7 spots really that big of a difference?
Agreed on Diggs for sure although his ADP is in the low 30's so you'd have to get lucky for him to fall into the fourth round. Coleman I view as similar to Henry but it'll be interesting to see how the qb situation looks there this season. I could easily see him staying put at his current ADP next year unless he takes a large step forward this year and overcomes a shaky qb situation. I just haven't seen enough out of him to feel confident in that happening. I really don't like the options in that fourth round range for this years startup draft. Id rather move up to the early third or move down to the fifthValhalla wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 pm Although I follow your line of thinking (in drafting him around then because he has a good shot to increase in value), it assumes that there aren't other players in that range that can ALSO increase substantially in value and can be justified to have a higher chance at providing big time production in 2017 as well...
A guy like Stefon Diggs or Corey Coleman comes to mind.
Henry is decent value in that range, I just don't see myself getting him if Diggs or Coleman are there, as they have a more open shot to help win in 2017 (imminent year's value is often undervalued) and also carry a chance at a nice value spike with a productive year.
43 seems pretty low for Diggs, but yeah if he is there I would be taking him. Coleman I think has a lot more room to go down than Henry, and has to do more than Henry to move up that much, IMO. I am a fan of Coleman, but I don't think he is offering much more than Henry this season, and I think he has a lower floor for the next year value-wise.Valhalla wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 pmAlthough I follow your line of thinking (in drafting him around then because he has a good shot to increase in value), it assumes that there aren't other players in that range that can ALSO increase substantially in value and can be justified to have a higher chance at providing big time production in 2017 as well...Dynasty24 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:59 pmThis is my thought as well. In these rounds I'm looking for guys that will increase in value. The only way I see it truly backfiring is if Demarco sticks around and starts next year and the year after.
My other thought is everyone agrees on trading the 1.06 for Henry but questions picking him at 43. Mike Williams is the current 1.06 and his startup ADP is 50. Is the 7 spots really that big of a difference?
A guy like Stefon Diggs or Corey Coleman comes to mind.
Henry is decent value in that range, I just don't see myself getting him if Diggs or Coleman are there, as they have a more open shot to help win in 2017 (imminent year's value is often undervalued) and also carry a chance at a nice value spike with a productive year.