Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:40 pm

Space Cowboy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:44 pm
thebeast wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:33 pm Pop goes the Darryton Evans bubble
Right cause Kamara couldn't thrive behind Ingram. Hunt and Chubb? Gordon and Ekeler? List goes on and on. If the talent is there he'll be fine.
The system Tennessee runs doesn't allow for Evans to thrive like those more talented players. Evans isn't going to touch those guys. The list does not really go on and on, either. Not for players that would be in a situation like his. For those who drafted Evans, this is a big blow, it's just the reality. Most were hoping for Henry being 1 and done, and if Henry gets hurt (which could still happen) he'd have a big role. Henry getting locked into a multiple year deal hurts him, no two ways about it. The Titans would really have to shift their offensive philosophy for Evans to even sniff the numbers of those players mentioned. The Titans targeted the RB's only 63 times last year, and Henry got 25 of those.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:51 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby sloth8u » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:42 pm

abloom wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:10 pm Wonder if this means they will manage his touches a little more then.
I missed henry in all drafts, but have bought low in lots of leagues.... Im a believer.

I see no reason for them to limit him and expect bigger seasons ahead to be honest. My guess is...most owners feel the same way 👍

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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:45 pm

sloth8u wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:42 pm
abloom wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:10 pm Wonder if this means they will manage his touches a little more then.
I missed henry in all drafts, but have bought low in lots of leagues.... Im a believer.

I see no reason for them to limit him and expect bigger seasons ahead to be honest. My guess is...most owners feel the same way 👍
I agree. They paid him, so they'll be using him plenty. I wouldn't worry about a possible dip in his workload.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby sugbear65 » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:07 pm

So with the news and the clearing up of his future, how much(if any) does he jump for you in the ranks? Would you rather have him or Chubb? Sanders? Mixon? Any rookie RBs?

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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Great deal for the team. $12m hit for two years then can cut.

Great deal for Henry. If he keeps balling out he can keep it rolling. And there's a 2021 apocalypse on the horizon, he read the market and made the right move.

Henry gonna melt faces this year.

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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:26 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:07 pm So with the news and the clearing up of his future, how much(if any) does he jump for you in the ranks? Would you rather have him or Chubb? Sanders? Mixon? Any rookie RBs?
Saquon, CMC
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Henry, Mixon, Chubb
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:14 pm

I’m not sure it makes sense to look at the breakdown of 2019 and assume that is how its going to play out going forward. Tennessee only lost three games by more than a TD in the regular season and none by two TDs. They also ate a million dollars in dead money to be rid of Lewis with one year left on his contract, because he wasn’t producing at the level they expected him to produce. Finally, they played a total of five teams with winning records in the regular season. You can’t just ignore their magical run through the playoffs, but sometimes teams get hot.

If Evans is better than Lewis, he should get more work than Lewis.
If the competition is tougher and Tennessee goes down by large margins in a couple, they’ll pass more, which will likely mean more work for Evans. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but 50-60 targets and 80-100 carries should be within range even with this signing (though I’m not expecting that year one) and if Henry goes down for a prolonged period, he could provide some nice upside.
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:14 pm I’m not sure it makes sense to look at the breakdown of 2019 and assume that is how its going to play out going forward. Tennessee only lost three games by more than a TD in the regular season and none by two TDs. They also ate a million dollars in dead money to be rid of Lewis with one year left on his contract, because he wasn’t producing at the level they expected him to produce. Finally, they played a total of five teams with winning records in the regular season. You can’t just ignore their magical run through the playoffs, but sometimes teams get hot.

If Evans is better than Lewis, he should get more work than Lewis.
If the competition is tougher and Tennessee goes down by large margins in a couple, they’ll pass more, which will likely mean more work for Evans. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but 50-60 targets and 80-100 carries should be within range even with this signing (though I’m not expecting that year one) and if Henry goes down for a prolonged period, he could provide some nice upside.
I find that a stretch, considering the level of targets the RB's got last year (63). I think the next 2 years, they have a blueprint. They may not be leading games as often, but have to think Henry is still part of the plan even if they are trailing, unless it's blowout, in the 4th quarter. Honestly looks like more of the same for 2 years barring injury. A steady dose of DH, play action pass, and a low volume pass offence, with AJB being the only guy I'd be comfortable having due to his big play ability. Even next year, with Henry still under contract, getting 50-60 targets for Evans will be a stretch, IMO. That's literally what their entire RB room had this year. I think that's the ceiling of his targets in the next 2 years, barring a major offensive shift.
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby TheNuts » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:46 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:07 pm So with the news and the clearing up of his future, how much(if any) does he jump for you in the ranks? Would you rather have him or Chubb? Sanders? Mixon? Any rookie RBs?
I really am surprised the lack of a deal could scare people off that much on him. Got him at 3.10 in a startup.
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:47 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm
ericanadian wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:14 pm I’m not sure it makes sense to look at the breakdown of 2019 and assume that is how its going to play out going forward. Tennessee only lost three games by more than a TD in the regular season and none by two TDs. They also ate a million dollars in dead money to be rid of Lewis with one year left on his contract, because he wasn’t producing at the level they expected him to produce. Finally, they played a total of five teams with winning records in the regular season. You can’t just ignore their magical run through the playoffs, but sometimes teams get hot.

If Evans is better than Lewis, he should get more work than Lewis.
If the competition is tougher and Tennessee goes down by large margins in a couple, they’ll pass more, which will likely mean more work for Evans. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but 50-60 targets and 80-100 carries should be within range even with this signing (though I’m not expecting that year one) and if Henry goes down for a prolonged period, he could provide some nice upside.
I find that a stretch, considering the level of targets the RB's got last year (63). I think the next 2 years, they have a blueprint. They may not be leading games as often, but have to think Henry is still part of the plan even if they are trailing, unless it's blowout, in the 4th quarter. Honestly looks like more of the same for 2 years barring injury. A steady dose of DH, play action pass, and a low volume pass offence, with AJB being the only guy I'd be comfortable having due to his big play ability. Even next year, with Henry still under contract, getting 50-60 targets for Evans will be a stretch, IMO. That's literally what their entire RB room had this year. I think that's the ceiling of his targets in the next 2 years, barring a major offensive shift.
I am going to disagree in part.

The Titans defense lost Jurrell Casey and looks to have a major hole in the pass rush.
They lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees to retirement

IMO the defense is due for a small step back and creating more neutral game scripts and passing volume

Beyond that there's a more obvious reason for the Titans to throw more: they came up short because they kept riding Henry when it wasn't working and saw that they need to throw more to win a Super Bowl

Last year Tennessee was 31st with 448 passing attempts.
For next year I think I can safely add about 35-40 passing attempts--only enough to bump them to 28th in passing attempts but when added to 103 vacated targets--I think it is enough to give AJB the volume to rise to low WR1 territory and make up for the slight regression in efficiency coming for him and to support one more pass catcher--whether that be Jonnu or Evans (Humphries and CD will take their share but at this point Davis is locked into mid to low WR3 territory and neither has the potential to be a difference maker as long as they are on the Titans

I don't think it's a major offensive shift--just a realization that you can't win big time on the back of one RB, even if he is your identity--which he will still be for the next two years

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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:00 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:47 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm
ericanadian wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:14 pm I’m not sure it makes sense to look at the breakdown of 2019 and assume that is how its going to play out going forward. Tennessee only lost three games by more than a TD in the regular season and none by two TDs. They also ate a million dollars in dead money to be rid of Lewis with one year left on his contract, because he wasn’t producing at the level they expected him to produce. Finally, they played a total of five teams with winning records in the regular season. You can’t just ignore their magical run through the playoffs, but sometimes teams get hot.

If Evans is better than Lewis, he should get more work than Lewis.
If the competition is tougher and Tennessee goes down by large margins in a couple, they’ll pass more, which will likely mean more work for Evans. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but 50-60 targets and 80-100 carries should be within range even with this signing (though I’m not expecting that year one) and if Henry goes down for a prolonged period, he could provide some nice upside.
I find that a stretch, considering the level of targets the RB's got last year (63). I think the next 2 years, they have a blueprint. They may not be leading games as often, but have to think Henry is still part of the plan even if they are trailing, unless it's blowout, in the 4th quarter. Honestly looks like more of the same for 2 years barring injury. A steady dose of DH, play action pass, and a low volume pass offence, with AJB being the only guy I'd be comfortable having due to his big play ability. Even next year, with Henry still under contract, getting 50-60 targets for Evans will be a stretch, IMO. That's literally what their entire RB room had this year. I think that's the ceiling of his targets in the next 2 years, barring a major offensive shift.
I am going to disagree in part.

The Titans defense lost Jurrell Casey and looks to have a major hole in the pass rush.
They lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees to retirement

IMO the defense is due for a small step back and creating more neutral game scripts and passing volume

Beyond that there's a more obvious reason for the Titans to throw more: they came up short because they kept riding Henry when it wasn't working and saw that they need to throw more to win a Super Bowl

Last year Tennessee was 31st with 448 passing attempts.
For next year I think I can safely add about 35-40 passing attempts--only enough to bump them to 28th in passing attempts but when added to 103 vacated targets--I think it is enough to give AJB the volume to rise to low WR1 territory and make up for the slight regression in efficiency coming for him and to support one more pass catcher--whether that be Jonnu or Evans (Humphries and CD will take their share but at this point Davis is locked into mid to low WR3 territory and neither has the potential to be a difference maker as long as they are on the Titans

I don't think it's a major offensive shift--just a realization that you can't win big time on the back of one RB, even if he is your identity--which he will still be for the next two years
We'll see. I think the Titans got to an AFC title game with a very clear philosophy, and they will be trying their best to replicate it. They aren't going to go out of their way to change things unless they are losing, and as I said, if the game is within reach in the 4th, DH is still going to be factoring in, as he can flourish in that quarter with a D who has had to tackle him all game.

Now your assessment isn't far fetched at all. I agree they may have to throw more, but to give one RB a projected 50-60 targets in a year or two when the entire RB room had 63 last year, with no clear change in philosophy seems high to me.
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:09 pm

This really is basically a 2 year deal. This should affect Cook negotiations, too. I'd say this becomes Cook's ceiling, with Henry being the reigning rushing leader. I'd expect Cook to get between 11-12 million or so, if they get a deal done.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-t ... nry-18994/
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:19 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:09 pm This really is basically a 2 year deal. This should affect Cook negotiations, too. I'd say this becomes Cook's ceiling, with Henry being the reigning rushing leader. I'd expect Cook to get between 11-12 million or so, if they get a deal done.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-t ... nry-18994/
I was waiting for this info to be released.

Seems like best case scenario for Henry, although I think the run game takes a hit without Conklin.

On a related note, Tannehill 📈
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:25 pm

sloth8u wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:42 pm
abloom wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:10 pm Wonder if this means they will manage his touches a little more then.
I missed henry in all drafts, but have bought low in lots of leagues.... Im a believer.

I see no reason for them to limit him and expect bigger seasons ahead to be honest. My guess is...most owners feel the same way 👍
You expect bigger season(s) than 300 carries for 1540 yards and 16 tds?

I expect you'll be disappointed.
16 team league
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26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
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Re: Derrick Henry's Extension

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:25 pm

Evans is a fast slasher and a good COP but I don't know what he offers in the passing game.

63 RB targets should only go up.

Titans have the 3rd easiest SoS this year and literally the easiest slate of rush defenses, projected by Warren Sharp.

Forget where I saw it, but Henry is due for positive regression in terms of touches inside the 5.

Lol at anyone fading this monster. Barring injury he's an rb1 lock w top 3 upside.


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