Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[Anteaters]

The key reason I'm so confident that this is Akers backfield is the insane 86% opportunity share he's held since the 2nd half of the SF game. Henderson was active for that half, and 3 of the next 7 games and he amassed 6 total carries. This includes a 3 carry game where he averaged 16 yards per carry and Akers carried the ball 21 times for 72 yards; Which runs counter to the narrative that this was a "hot hand approach".

You're doing a good job of making me believe in Akers more.

I'd likely trade Henry for Chubb too. If I'm in last season of a championship window maybe I don't, but in a vacuum I do.
If I'm not a "favorite" or really strong contender I likely do it for Taylor too.
Swift's talent is tantalizing and coaching staff/situation likely improves from last year except for QB. Gamble though...
Akers I still can't quite get behind (compared to Henry) but I saw the stats above and it's an explosive offense. I could be totally wrong.

I'm not saying (and I don't think others are either) that Henry's untouchable or anything, but my experience is that some are already valuing Henry as if he's about to fall off that cliff and not as a top 5 RB. I'm not making a deal with those guys.

I love Chubb. Hunt diminishes his value, but then again, maybe Hunt keeps the load manageable. If I had a championship contending team and was offered Chubb for Henry straight up, that might be the most difficult decision I'd be faced with in the entire year. Chubb is soooooo talented.

[Ice]

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.

[mild]

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.

I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

[Farley]

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.

I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

I'm sure he was talking about fantasy production...not fantasy value. Quoting fantasy ranks to a guy who's saying he's undervalued doesn't make much of a point.

I love Chubb. And would take him over Henry going forward ever so slightly. But there's no question that Henry has been in another class from a fantasy production point of view over the last two and half years...including 2019. It's not up for debate.

[dmac37]

Gut feeling and using historical data that we have seen the best we ever will with Henry.

Injuries- I never predict injuries but the law of averages say that like CMC last year Henry is a prime candidate for his number to be called.
Usage- history tells us that a RB that gets major volume for one year is a red flag, 2 years in a row is a MAJOR red flag concern IMO.
Age- 27 is pretty much the age that you should look to move a stud RB before the value goes south

I'm rolling the dice that Derrynton Evans makes a major impact sometime in 2021. He is a great fit for the Titan outside zone running scheme and he should be the next man up if Henry finally succumbs to some type of extended injury.

[Ice]

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.

I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

This isn't about respecting Chubb. I think he is very good but lets face a few facts.

2020 PPG Henry Plus 2.522 average per game
2019 PPG Henry Plus 1.597 average per game
2018 PPG Henry Plus 0.02 average per game

Last 3 years the trend is going Henry's direction.
From a durability perspective Henry scored 107.9 more total points in 2020.

Long term Chubb should last longer but the biggest difference here is Henry Vanquished his competition the last 2 years and Chubb is in a committee with a back only 6 months older than him who scored more points in 2020. That RBBC isn't going away no matter how we all wish it would.

Henry is less then 2 years older than Chubb.

I actually rate these backs very close but no matter how you slice Henry is the back that has been separating over Chubb the last 3 years so his value in reality is simply higher as he has fewer question marks.

Could really care less which sister you like better but the Facts to date obviously favor Henry in scoring. Chubb does win an age battle but we don't get add the 1.something to his score weekly.

I get the would of, should of, could of, arguments but those pesky facts are getting in the way.

No real reason to trade either of these backs for the other.

[broncohead]

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.

I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

This isn't about respecting Chubb. I think he is very good but lets face a few facts.

2020 PPG Henry Plus 2.522 average per game
2019 PPG Henry Plus 1.597 average per game
2018 PPG Henry Plus 0.02 average per game

Last 3 years the trend is going Henry's direction.
From a durability perspective Henry scored 107.9 more total points in 2020.

Long term Chubb should last longer but the biggest difference here is Henry Vanquished his competition the last 2 years and Chubb is in a committee with a back only 6 months older than him who scored more points in 2020. That RBBC isn't going away no matter how we all wish it would.

Henry is less then 2 years older than Chubb.

I actually rate these backs very close but no matter how you slice Henry is the back that has been separating over Chubb the last 3 years so his value in reality is simply higher as he has fewer question marks.

Could really care less which sister you like better but the Facts to date obviously favor Henry in scoring. Chubb does win an age battle but we don't get add the 1.something to his score weekly.

I get the would of, should of, could of, arguments but those pesky facts are getting in the way.

No real reason to trade either of these backs for the other.

If we’re being honest, Chubb did miss 4 games. On a per game basis Chubb was ranked 5th and Hunt 20th. Though I do rank Henry just over Chubb.

[OhCruelestRanter]

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

What’s a “really big money league?”

[Ice]

I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

This isn't about respecting Chubb. I think he is very good but lets face a few facts.

2020 PPG Henry Plus 2.522 average per game
2019 PPG Henry Plus 1.597 average per game
2018 PPG Henry Plus 0.02 average per game

Last 3 years the trend is going Henry's direction.
From a durability perspective Henry scored 107.9 more total points in 2020.

Long term Chubb should last longer but the biggest difference here is Henry Vanquished his competition the last 2 years and Chubb is in a committee with a back only 6 months older than him who scored more points in 2020. That RBBC isn't going away no matter how we all wish it would.

Henry is less then 2 years older than Chubb.

I actually rate these backs very close but no matter how you slice Henry is the back that has been separating over Chubb the last 3 years so his value in reality is simply higher as he has fewer question marks.

Could really care less which sister you like better but the Facts to date obviously favor Henry in scoring. Chubb does win an age battle but we don't get add the 1.something to his score weekly.

I get the would of, should of, could of, arguments but those pesky facts are getting in the way.

No real reason to trade either of these backs for the other.

If we’re being honest, Chubb did miss 4 games. On a per game basis Chubb was ranked 5th and Hunt 20th. Though I do rank Henry just over Chubb.

I agree but then again Henry didn't miss any. I think Chubb is a better RB than Hunt but the real question is how much better a fantasy back in PPr leagues.

My point is for 3 straight years the stats have been favoring Henry and that favor ability has been increasing at an increasing rate.

I do get people liking Chubb better but the reality is that 2.522 point differential per game is a large margin in fantasy football when looking at scoring at a singe position.

That spread is bigger than a less than 2 year difference in value especially when Chubb, as great as he is running, is in an obvious RBBC.

Many seem to forget Henry wasn't the starter his first two years. Henry has been healthy and his stats are improving every single year at this point. Henry doesn't miss games and he has averaged over 5 yards per carry 2 straight years.

The real difference in these 2 backs and why they are in a different tier this coming season is because Henry projects to get around 75 plus more touches due to the talent of Hunt. Just don't see any dispute in that stat projection given the reality today.

I will say if these two players switched teams I would rank Chubb higher.

[OhCruelestRanter]

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

What’s a “really big money league?”

Still curious.

[Ice]

My guess is you don't play in really big money leagues because if you did then points would actually matter more.

What’s a “really big money league?”

Still curious.

I am sure you are but you're the one person on this site I could care less to answer. Basic rule is if you have to ask you probably can't afford it.

[OhCruelestRanter]

What’s a “really big money league?”

Still curious.

I am sure you are but you're the one person on this site I could care less to answer. Basic rule is if you have to ask you probably can't afford it.

I don’t know who you are or why you think that, but I thought disparaging somebody and discrediting their opinion because you suspect that they don’t play in “really big money leagues” was in poor taste.

I think it’s very interesting that you’re willing to throw that out there as an ad hominem and won’t even define what a “really big money league” is.

[CGW]

Its $20, I'm pretty sure.

[The MAC Machine]

Still curious.

I am sure you are but you're the one person on this site I could care less to answer. Basic rule is if you have to ask you probably can't afford it.

I don’t know who you are or why you think that, but I thought disparaging somebody and discrediting their opinion because you suspect that they don’t play in “really big money leagues” was in poor taste.

I think it’s very interesting that you’re willing to throw that out there as an ad hominem and won’t even define what a “really big money league” is.

Yea, that’s weird. Why describe it as a “big money league” at all if you’re going to retreat when disclosing the details?

[Vcize]

So of the 14 guys with 400+ touch seasons since the year 2000, only two (LT2 and Tiki) were similar studs the following year. Half were downright awful the following year, whether due to injury or supreme under performance. The rest like CJ, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis were still good but gave away about 800-1000 yards from their prior year total.

To me those seem like not great odds, especially since it's not like this is a sample of random RBs here. This is a sample of borderline HoF talent players so only 2 of 14 following up their high touch year with another one is worrisome.

On average this group of players with ~400+ touch seasons saw their production in terms of fantasy points drop over 50% and their yards from scrimmage drop by more than 1000 from the prior year. Obviously the injuries hurt this but using the median looks like similar numbers.

Good research!

I get it. I understand fantasy guys see more risk than reward. My main points are...
1: Henry is undervalued in general when it comes to trade offers and thus will not be traded by many of his current owners.
2: Henry is unfairly undervalued compared to some other RBs who either don't measure up to his production, or who have similar touches over the past 2-3 seasons.

I agree the history of 400+ touchers isn't promising. But I'd put Henry's talent/situation much higher than guys like CJ, Ahman, and even JamalLewis. His body is just different.

But I don't think you're really wrong. And I'm totally comfortable with the idea that fantasy owners don't want to take the risk of trading FMV for Henry.

BTW, one other stat I like to look into is the age of those guys when they had their 400+touch season, and the mileage they'd had prior to that. I think those stats would provide more insight.

Also, while your research included the years immediately following the 400-touch season, it did not include further seasons. For instance, Edge had a lackluster 2001 season because he played in only 6 games, but his 400touch season did not ruin his career. Edge had several more top-echelon seasons and a great career. He had several subsequent seasons of 350+ touches and even another 400touch season in 2005. A one year dip isn't a death knell. StJackson also had subsequent 350+ touch seasons.

If we take your original 14 examples (and add Henry to make 15), with your two admitted stud followups, let's look deeper. Leveon cannot be called a positive or negative because he held out then got moved to two different teams with different offensive systems and RB depth chart situations. Ricky Weedums was a special situation than also cannot be judged good or bad. Edge and Jackson followed up their dip season with more high quality seasons. CMC hasn't had the book written on his career yet, so even with a 1 year drop, we don't know for certain. Henry has already proven he can follow up a 400touch season with a stud season. Of the 15, 8 either had more very good productive seasons or we cannot judge them yet. Of the 14, 6 had significant career downturns.

I get it though. 400+ carries is something to be considered. I just don't think it's an automatic disqualifier.

This is definitely a fair point. Even if Henry does have a down year or struggle with injuries in 2021 (and I'm not saying he definitely will, he's a freak and who knows he could be the next Tiki for all we know), that doesn't necessarily mean he can't be great again in 2022.

However from a value standpoint, as I mentioned early on in my post, he's at an age where any sign of weakness would cause a parabolic drop in his value. A 23 year old Edge or 24 year old CMC could withstand a down year and still retain their value. But when a 27/28 year old RB has a down year their value tends to just absolutely plummet.

DeMarco Murray, for instance, still went on to have a very nice season 2 years after his 400 touch season. But his value never really came close to recovering anywhere near where it was during that 400 touch season.

I guess if you're just planning on holding then value doesn't matter, but if someone is looking to buy at a discount any sign of weakness from Henry will provide a much cheaper point of entry than even his current undervalue.

He's a tricky guy to put a value on, that's for sure.