From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?Anteaters wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:34 amThe problem with that line of thought is no one who makes a trade offer for Henry actually offers what he's worth. The reason is because everyone seems to shade his true value by constantly worrying about usage and assuming next year will be the year he declines, or blindly complaining that he doesn't catch enough balls. So when the trade offer is made, it is never as high as his true value.
In two of my favorite leagues, Henry was the #2 RB and the #1 RB in 2020 scoring. He's 27. He didn't get even half of his professional team's touches until his third season in 2018. He's never suffered a major injury as a pro. Since he joined the NFL in 2016, Henry has played in 15, 16, 16, 15, and 16 games each year. He has missed TWO games in FIVE seasons!!! That is 11 less than CMC has missed in four seasons; 19 fewer than Cook has missed in four seasons; 7 less than Zeke has missed in the same time.
Zeke has 1650+ touches, which is average of 330/yr; Henry has 1250, 250/yr. CMC has 1000, 250/yr; Cook has 917, 229/yr; Kamara has 1000, 250/yr. Numbers don't lie. I'll take Henry's 250 touches per season with no injury history over CMC and Cook's 250/yr with injury history.
So we're talking about a 27 y.o. who has finished as a top3 fantasy RB for the last two seasons. Yet his trade value seems to be about half that of CMC, much less than Cooks & Kamara, and even slightly behind guys like JT, Swift, and Akers who haven't come close to matching his proven results.
As a Henry owner, I would consider an offer that truly matched his value as one of the top 3 RB in fantasy who has given me no reason to doubt he'll have at least two more top5 finishes. But, if I get an offer that values Henry somewhere between Mixon and MGordon, I'm not even going to bother to respond when I hit NO.
My opinion is that Henry should receive offers maybe less than CMC and Cook, but slightly higher than Kamara. I'll give JT the benefit of youth and potential in being possibly more valuable, but not any other 2019 or 2020 rookie. If I have a team built to win in 2021, I want Henry over every young RB except maybe JT, over Kamara, and based on recent injury history, over Cook and CMC. That's not to say I wouldn't take CMC or Cook if offered straight up for Henry - but if I had a $1000 riding on which would have a better overall 2021 season, I'd feel more comfortable with Henry.
No trade offers value Henry like that. That's why very few Henry owners (who know and have felt his true value) are trading him right now.
Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.
None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.