Derrick Henry? What gives??

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:44 pm

Anteaters wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:34 am
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:51 pm
Ice said Henry’s actual value is greater than his trade value (which I agree with), which is why contenders should be targeting him.
The problem with that line of thought is no one who makes a trade offer for Henry actually offers what he's worth. The reason is because everyone seems to shade his true value by constantly worrying about usage and assuming next year will be the year he declines, or blindly complaining that he doesn't catch enough balls. So when the trade offer is made, it is never as high as his true value.

In two of my favorite leagues, Henry was the #2 RB and the #1 RB in 2020 scoring. He's 27. He didn't get even half of his professional team's touches until his third season in 2018. He's never suffered a major injury as a pro. Since he joined the NFL in 2016, Henry has played in 15, 16, 16, 15, and 16 games each year. He has missed TWO games in FIVE seasons!!! That is 11 less than CMC has missed in four seasons; 19 fewer than Cook has missed in four seasons; 7 less than Zeke has missed in the same time.

Zeke has 1650+ touches, which is average of 330/yr; Henry has 1250, 250/yr. CMC has 1000, 250/yr; Cook has 917, 229/yr; Kamara has 1000, 250/yr. Numbers don't lie. I'll take Henry's 250 touches per season with no injury history over CMC and Cook's 250/yr with injury history.

So we're talking about a 27 y.o. who has finished as a top3 fantasy RB for the last two seasons. Yet his trade value seems to be about half that of CMC, much less than Cooks & Kamara, and even slightly behind guys like JT, Swift, and Akers who haven't come close to matching his proven results.

As a Henry owner, I would consider an offer that truly matched his value as one of the top 3 RB in fantasy who has given me no reason to doubt he'll have at least two more top5 finishes. But, if I get an offer that values Henry somewhere between Mixon and MGordon, I'm not even going to bother to respond when I hit NO.

My opinion is that Henry should receive offers maybe less than CMC and Cook, but slightly higher than Kamara. I'll give JT the benefit of youth and potential in being possibly more valuable, but not any other 2019 or 2020 rookie. If I have a team built to win in 2021, I want Henry over every young RB except maybe JT, over Kamara, and based on recent injury history, over Cook and CMC. That's not to say I wouldn't take CMC or Cook if offered straight up for Henry - but if I had a $1000 riding on which would have a better overall 2021 season, I'd feel more comfortable with Henry.

No trade offers value Henry like that. That's why very few Henry owners (who know and have felt his true value) are trading him right now.
From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?

Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.

None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:24 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:44 pm

From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?

Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.

None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.
I agree with this. The offseason is generally when people are trying to win ADP championships. Getting rookies and 2nd/3rd year breakout candidates is what becomes appealing.

But, once the season starts, stuff like that goes out the window. Henry's been a league winner for three straight seasons. If you're going to trade him, just wait until he has his usual 100+ yard, 2 TD game.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Anteaters » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:25 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:44 pm

From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?

Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.

None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.
Of those four, I'd bet on Taylor for the most career fantasy points from 2021 onward. In 2021 only, I'd bet on Henry. Of the three youngsters, Taylor is the only one I feel confident will produce 3-5 top-10 fantasy seasons. I like Akers a lot, but I don't trust his coach to focus on one RB. McVey seems a lot like Belichick with RBs. Swift looked good at times, but he's no Barry Sanders (who is?) If Goff plays poorly and defenses can stuff the box, I think Swift's numbers will suffer. Swift isn't good enough to overcome a bad QB and an 8-man box.

If I had a team I thought was ready to win in 2021 or 2022, I'd rather have Henry than Swift or Akers.

I agree with your point that we should trade aging vets for young up-and-comers. I'd be willing to trade Henry for FMV, but if I have a team in contention, I need true quality in return. I'm just not sure either Swift or Akers will come up as far as we hope.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Sriracha » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm

Anteaters wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:25 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:44 pm

From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?

Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.

None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.
Of those four, I'd bet on Taylor for the most career fantasy points from 2021 onward. In 2021 only, I'd bet on Henry. Of the three youngsters, Taylor is the only one I feel confident will produce 3-5 top-10 fantasy seasons. I like Akers a lot, but I don't trust his coach to focus on one RB. McVey seems a lot like Belichick with RBs. ...
:oops:

Looking at McVay's career.. which year was the outlier for RB opportunity distribution, and how did McVay distribute these opportunities for the last 9.5 games of the season?

Which of these splits do you believe is more predictive of the future?

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:14 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm
Anteaters wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:25 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:44 pm

From 2021 on, who do you expect to produce the most fantasy points? Henry, Taylor, Swift, or Akers?

Last season I traded him away in-season (along with Gaskin) for Chubb in a contract league where Chubb is substantially cheaper (and Gaskin was almost free). I also traded for him in another league, giving what ended up as 1.12 and Gaskin, oddly enough.

None of this is new or specific to Henry, just don’t trade vets who are near their age apex in the off-season. It’s generally bad value.
Of those four, I'd bet on Taylor for the most career fantasy points from 2021 onward. In 2021 only, I'd bet on Henry. Of the three youngsters, Taylor is the only one I feel confident will produce 3-5 top-10 fantasy seasons. I like Akers a lot, but I don't trust his coach to focus on one RB. McVey seems a lot like Belichick with RBs. ...
:oops:

Looking at McVay's career.. which year was the outlier for RB opportunity distribution, and how did McVay distribute these opportunities for the last 9.5 games of the season?

Which of these splits do you believe is more predictive of the future?
Exactly.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Anteaters » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:15 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm
Looking at McVay's career.. which year was the outlier for RB opportunity distribution, and how did McVay distribute these opportunities for the last 9.5 games of the season?
Fair question. While the argument could be made that Gurley was such a special talent he made McVay alter his tendency, I can see your point.
Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm
Which of these splits do you believe is more predictive of the future?
I tend to agree with you. However, I think it's too early to assume Akers will be as good as prime Gurley. And if Akers doesn't prove himself to be the runaway #1 option, maybe McVay goes with a split.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Sriracha » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:20 pm

Anteaters wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:15 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm
Looking at McVay's career.. which year was the outlier for RB opportunity distribution, and how did McVay distribute these opportunities for the last 9.5 games of the season?
Fair question. While the argument could be made that Gurley was such a special talent he made McVay alter his tendency, I can see your point.
Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:44 pm
Which of these splits do you believe is more predictive of the future?
I tend to agree with you. However, I think it's too early to assume Akers will be as good as prime Gurley. And if Akers doesn't prove himself to be the runaway #1 option, maybe McVay goes with a split.
The key reason I'm so confident that this is Akers backfield is the insane 86% opportunity share he's held since the 2nd half of the SF game. Henderson was active for that half, and 3 of the next 7 games and he amassed 6 total carries. This includes a 3 carry game where he averaged 16 yards per carry and Akers carried the ball 21 times for 72 yards; Which runs counter to the narrative that this was a "hot hand approach".

We've seen McVay prefer a 1 man workhorse for his entire career, and that's the tendency he went back to when when the stakes were highest. They drafted Akers with their first pick in the 2020 draft despite having Henderson on the roster, and he was named the starter in week 1 before he faceplanted. Since he broke off the 61 yard run vs SF it's been all Akers for almost half the season...

Anything can happen, but I don't understand the hesitation with calling a spade a spade, here.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Vcize » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:08 pm

Anteaters wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:34 am
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:51 pm
Ice said Henry’s actual value is greater than his trade value (which I agree with), which is why contenders should be targeting him.
The problem with that line of thought is no one who makes a trade offer for Henry actually offers what he's worth. The reason is because everyone seems to shade his true value by constantly worrying about usage and assuming next year will be the year he declines, or blindly complaining that he doesn't catch enough balls. So when the trade offer is made, it is never as high as his true value.

In two of my favorite leagues, Henry was the #2 RB and the #1 RB in 2020 scoring. He's 27. He didn't get even half of his professional team's touches until his third season in 2018. He's never suffered a major injury as a pro. Since he joined the NFL in 2016, Henry has played in 15, 16, 16, 15, and 16 games each year. He has missed TWO games in FIVE seasons!!! That is 11 less than CMC has missed in four seasons; 19 fewer than Cook has missed in four seasons; 7 less than Zeke has missed in the same time.

Zeke has 1650+ touches, which is average of 330/yr; Henry has 1250, 250/yr. CMC has 1000, 250/yr; Cook has 917, 229/yr; Kamara has 1000, 250/yr. Numbers don't lie. I'll take Henry's 250 touches per season with no injury history over CMC and Cook's 250/yr with injury history.

So we're talking about a 27 y.o. who has finished as a top3 fantasy RB for the last two seasons. Yet his trade value seems to be about half that of CMC, much less than Cooks & Kamara, and even slightly behind guys like JT, Swift, and Akers who haven't come close to matching his proven results.

As a Henry owner, I would consider an offer that truly matched his value as one of the top 3 RB in fantasy who has given me no reason to doubt he'll have at least two more top5 finishes. But, if I get an offer that values Henry somewhere between Mixon and MGordon, I'm not even going to bother to respond when I hit NO.

My opinion is that Henry should receive offers maybe less than CMC and Cook, but slightly higher than Kamara. I'll give JT the benefit of youth and potential in being possibly more valuable, but not any other 2019 or 2020 rookie. If I have a team built to win in 2021, I want Henry over every young RB except maybe JT, over Kamara, and based on recent injury history, over Cook and CMC. That's not to say I wouldn't take CMC or Cook if offered straight up for Henry - but if I had a $1000 riding on which would have a better overall 2021 season, I'd feel more comfortable with Henry.

No trade offers value Henry like that. That's why very few Henry owners (who know and have felt his true value) are trading him right now.
The problem with this is that I don't think there is a high correlation between high career touches and fading off early. Most of the guys who played the longest (Emmitt, Faulk, Gore, CMart, etc) were high touch players. It's not guys like Westbrook and Charles that were still playing well in their early 30's.

On the flipside of that, anecdotally there DOES seem to be a high correlation between guys who have an extremely high touch single season and how they perform in the following season. Maybe someone can run the data on this but it seems like when guys approach or exceed 400ish touches they usually follow it up with a pretty brutal or at least significantly depressed season the next year. And at this point if Henry has even a mediocre season where he "only" rushes for 1100 yards and 8 TDs or something, his value will absolutely tank at his age.

Henry had 419 touches this year counting the playoffs. Here are the guys since 2000 with the number of touches they had and a quick paraphrase of how they did the following year.

Larry Johnson 2006: 457 touches, 2007: sucked, then got hurt
Eddie George 2000: 453 touches, 2001: sucked, lowest rushing total and ypc (3.0) of his career
Ladainian Tomlinson 2002: 451 touches, 2003: Still a stud (23 years old)
Edgerrin James 2000: 450 touches, 2001: injured
DeMarco Murray 2014: 449 touches, 2015: sucked
Ricky Williams 2003: 442 touches, 2004: retired to smoke weed
Steven Jackson 2006: 436 touches, 2007: banged up, decent when he played but still a huge step down from 2006
Deuce McAllister 2003: 420 touches, 2004: solid but a huge dropoff from 2003
Jamal Lewis 2003: 413 touches, 2004: Mediocre, big drop from 2003, banged up
Tiki Barber 2005: 411 touches, 2006: Stud
Chris Johnson 2009: 408 touches, 2010: Good, but about 1000 total yards less than 2009
LeVeon Bell 2017: 406 touches, 2018: Held out, never had another good season
Ahman Green 2003: 405 touches, 2004: Good, but about 900 fewer yards
Christian McCaffrey 2019: 403 touches, 2020: missed 13 games with 2 different injuries

So of the 14 guys with 400+ touch seasons since the year 2000, only two (LT2 and Tiki) were similar studs the following year. Half were downright awful the following year, whether due to injury or supreme under performance. The rest like CJ, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis were still good but gave away about 800-1000 yards from their prior year total.

To me those seem like not great odds, especially since it's not like this is a sample of random RBs here. This is a sample of borderline HoF talent players so only 2 of 14 following up their high touch year with another one is worrisome.

On average this group of players with ~400+ touch seasons saw their production in terms of fantasy points drop over 50% and their yards from scrimmage drop by more than 1000 from the prior year. Obviously the injuries hurt this but using the median looks like similar numbers.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby KingsKing » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:43 pm

Good post Vcize

History isn't on Henrys side but what if I told you in 2019 Henry had 410 touches with the playoffs included and returned to rush for 2000 yards this season. So he has already bucked the trend once in his career, maybe that makes the odds of him doing it again even lower but we have never seen a RB like this before, 250 lbs with breakaway speed that wears teams out and gets better as the game goes on. The wheels could fall off at any moment but that could be said for any rb really, but if you are a contender I don't see the point in trading him unless you get blown away. I think Henry has 2 RB1 seasons left in him barring injury and I plan on riding him into the ground.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Anteaters » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:40 am

Vcize wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:08 pm
So of the 14 guys with 400+ touch seasons since the year 2000, only two (LT2 and Tiki) were similar studs the following year. Half were downright awful the following year, whether due to injury or supreme under performance. The rest like CJ, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis were still good but gave away about 800-1000 yards from their prior year total.

To me those seem like not great odds, especially since it's not like this is a sample of random RBs here. This is a sample of borderline HoF talent players so only 2 of 14 following up their high touch year with another one is worrisome.

On average this group of players with ~400+ touch seasons saw their production in terms of fantasy points drop over 50% and their yards from scrimmage drop by more than 1000 from the prior year. Obviously the injuries hurt this but using the median looks like similar numbers.
Good research!

I get it. I understand fantasy guys see more risk than reward. My main points are...
1: Henry is undervalued in general when it comes to trade offers and thus will not be traded by many of his current owners.
2: Henry is unfairly undervalued compared to some other RBs who either don't measure up to his production, or who have similar touches over the past 2-3 seasons.

I agree the history of 400+ touchers isn't promising. But I'd put Henry's talent/situation much higher than guys like CJ, Ahman, and even JamalLewis. His body is just different.

But I don't think you're really wrong. And I'm totally comfortable with the idea that fantasy owners don't want to take the risk of trading FMV for Henry.

BTW, one other stat I like to look into is the age of those guys when they had their 400+touch season, and the mileage they'd had prior to that. I think those stats would provide more insight.

Also, while your research included the years immediately following the 400-touch season, it did not include further seasons. For instance, Edge had a lackluster 2001 season because he played in only 6 games, but his 400touch season did not ruin his career. Edge had several more top-echelon seasons and a great career. He had several subsequent seasons of 350+ touches and even another 400touch season in 2005. A one year dip isn't a death knell. StJackson also had subsequent 350+ touch seasons.

If we take your original 14 examples (and add Henry to make 15), with your two admitted stud followups, let's look deeper. Leveon cannot be called a positive or negative because he held out then got moved to two different teams with different offensive systems and RB depth chart situations. Ricky Weedums was a special situation than also cannot be judged good or bad. Edge and Jackson followed up their dip season with more high quality seasons. CMC hasn't had the book written on his career yet, so even with a 1 year drop, we don't know for certain. Henry has already proven he can follow up a 400touch season with a stud season. Of the 15, 8 either had more very good productive seasons or we cannot judge them yet. Of the 14, 6 had significant career downturns.

I get it though. 400+ carries is something to be considered. I just don't think it's an automatic disqualifier.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:39 am

I'd likely trade Henry for Chubb too. If I'm in last season of a championship window maybe I don't, but in a vacuum I do.
If I'm not a "favorite" or really strong contender I likely do it for Taylor too.
Swift's talent is tantalizing and coaching staff/situation likely improves from last year except for QB. Gamble though...
Akers I still can't quite get behind (compared to Henry) but I saw the stats above and it's an explosive offense. I could be totally wrong.

I'm not saying (and I don't think others are either) that Henry's untouchable or anything, but my experience is that some are already valuing Henry as if he's about to fall off that cliff and not as a top 5 RB. I'm not making a deal with those guys.
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QB (1): Herbert, Carr
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, David Johnson, R. Penny
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Anteaters » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:48 am

Sriracha wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:20 pm
The key reason I'm so confident that this is Akers backfield is the insane 86% opportunity share he's held since the 2nd half of the SF game. Henderson was active for that half, and 3 of the next 7 games and he amassed 6 total carries. This includes a 3 carry game where he averaged 16 yards per carry and Akers carried the ball 21 times for 72 yards; Which runs counter to the narrative that this was a "hot hand approach".
You're doing a good job of making me believe in Akers more.

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:39 am
I'd likely trade Henry for Chubb too. If I'm in last season of a championship window maybe I don't, but in a vacuum I do.
If I'm not a "favorite" or really strong contender I likely do it for Taylor too.
Swift's talent is tantalizing and coaching staff/situation likely improves from last year except for QB. Gamble though...
Akers I still can't quite get behind (compared to Henry) but I saw the stats above and it's an explosive offense. I could be totally wrong.

I'm not saying (and I don't think others are either) that Henry's untouchable or anything, but my experience is that some are already valuing Henry as if he's about to fall off that cliff and not as a top 5 RB. I'm not making a deal with those guys.
I love Chubb. Hunt diminishes his value, but then again, maybe Hunt keeps the load manageable. If I had a championship contending team and was offered Chubb for Henry straight up, that might be the most difficult decision I'd be faced with in the entire year. Chubb is soooooo talented.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Ice » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:43 am

Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby mild » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:08 pm

Ice wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:43 am
Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.
I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Farley » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:51 pm

mild wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:08 pm
Ice wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:43 am
Chubb is certainly a very good RB and I get the pull of his talent but he is not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective. Henry's points per game has been better 3 straight years. Henry's situation is also way better. Kind of like a kissing your sister trade but one better get more than Chubb if selling Henry.
I'd be much more enthused about owning Chubb through the next three years than Henry. Ages 25 to 28 (ie his prime) vs. Ages 27-30 (and just had a 400 touch season). If that trade was offered to me as someone now entering a contention window, I'd pull that trigger easily.

Two years ago, Chubb lost the rushing title to Henry (whilst still splitting with Hunt) thanks to a last-ditch Week 17 211-yard effort by Henry. Chubb's yardage lead was evaporated by about 50 points. Henry is your 2019 rushing leader, well played to you Mr. Henry.

"Not in Henry's class from a fantasy perspective" though... that's up there for the dumbest thing I ever heard. They are literally RB6 and RB7 in Mizelle's February startup ADP. I don't know what else Nick Chubb needs to do to get your respect (not that I mind or care).
I'm sure he was talking about fantasy production...not fantasy value. Quoting fantasy ranks to a guy who's saying he's undervalued doesn't make much of a point.

I love Chubb. And would take him over Henry going forward ever so slightly. But there's no question that Henry has been in another class from a fantasy production point of view over the last two and half years...including 2019. It's not up for debate.


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