Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[KingsKing]

Context needs to be added

Davis only played 4 games the following season , Lewis only played 12 . Dickerson carried the ball 90 less times the following season , Oj carried it 60 less times , Cj and AP also got 60-80 less carries the following season . All of them had respectable ypc averages and yardage totals but the same volume wasn’t there . I don’t expect Henry to run for 2k this year but I think he will be right in line with 300 carries , 1500 yards and 12-15 tds again and a rb1 finish

[Bronco Billy]

Context needs to be added

Davis only played 4 games the following season , Lewis only played 12 . Dickerson carried the ball 90 less times the following season , Oj carried it 60 less times , Cj and AP also got 60-80 less carries the following season . All of them had respectable ypc averages and yardage totals but the same volume wasn’t there . I don’t expect Henry to run for 2k this year but I think he will be right in line with 300 carries , 1500 yards and 12-15 tds again and a rb1 finish

So you’re expecting him to substantially outperform every RB who cracked 2000 yds in NFL history? Those are some prolific names on that list.

[Cameron Giles]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

Henry won't get 2,000 again, which everyone knows. But, he still has league winning upside. Be careful of trading players, especially RBs, who can win you leagues.

Winning leagues > trade value

[dynastyninja]

Henry would be a sell to me if I believed I could get proper value. I'm not confident he can last too much longer given the workload he's had the last two years.

That said, I don't believe most owners are going to be able to get proper value because of the age and touches. He's likely a hold for most all contenders.

[KingsKing]

Context needs to be added

Davis only played 4 games the following season , Lewis only played 12 . Dickerson carried the ball 90 less times the following season , Oj carried it 60 less times , Cj and AP also got 60-80 less carries the following season . All of them had respectable ypc averages and yardage totals but the same volume wasn’t there . I don’t expect Henry to run for 2k this year but I think he will be right in line with 300 carries , 1500 yards and 12-15 tds again and a rb1 finish

So you’re expecting him to substantially outperform every RB who cracked 2000 yds in NFL history? Those are some prolific names on that list.

Cj2k had 1600 total yards and 12 tds the following season
Jamal Lewis had 1200 and 7 tds in 12 games the following season
Dickerson had 1400 and 12 tds in 14 games the following season
Peterson had 1400 and 11 tds in 14 games the following season

So would Henry totalling 1500 and 15 tds be substantially outperforming them if he plays all 16 games next season?

In the last 3 seasons he has scored 12/18/17 tds . If he gets 300 touches and stays healthy 1500 and 15 tds would be his average over the last 3 seasons.

[Pullo Vision]

Context needs to be added

Davis only played 4 games the following season , Lewis only played 12 . Dickerson carried the ball 90 less times the following season , Oj carried it 60 less times , Cj and AP also got 60-80 less carries the following season . All of them had respectable ypc averages and yardage totals but the same volume wasn’t there . I don’t expect Henry to run for 2k this year but I think he will be right in line with 300 carries , 1500 yards and 12-15 tds again and a rb1 finish

Further context is needed, if we're doing a deep dive. What was the reason for the decline in touches? Were their coaches concerned about pilling on more touches after a big year the year before?

I'm also curious what the impact of losing OC Arthur Smith will be. People attributed Tannehill's resurrection to Smith- how would a regression by the passing game affect Henry? Can they beef up the defense, to put the run game in more favorable situations?

[KingsKing]

Context needs to be added

Davis only played 4 games the following season , Lewis only played 12 . Dickerson carried the ball 90 less times the following season , Oj carried it 60 less times , Cj and AP also got 60-80 less carries the following season . All of them had respectable ypc averages and yardage totals but the same volume wasn’t there . I don’t expect Henry to run for 2k this year but I think he will be right in line with 300 carries , 1500 yards and 12-15 tds again and a rb1 finish

Further context is needed, if we're doing a deep dive. What was the reason for the decline in touches? Were their coaches concerned about pilling on more touches after a big year the year before?

I'm also curious what the impact of losing OC Arthur Smith will be. People attributed Tannehill's resurrection to Smith- how would a regression by the passing game affect Henry? Can they beef up the defense, to put the run game in more favorable situations?

I think a large part of Tannehill's resurrection was the attention teams pay to Henry opening up the play action and favourable passing situations. It will be interesting to see how the new OC calls plays but I don't think the identity of the team changes, Vrabel wants to run the ball and punch people in the mouth.

With regards to the other members of the 2k club losing touches the following season they pretty much all maintained a ypc average within their career averages so perhaps it was managing touches, game flow, bad luck etc but performance didn't seem to be the major issue

[Pullo Vision]

Found a previous Twitter discussion, with an interesting spreadsheet grid- https://mobile.twitter.com/Michael_Fabi ... 730438144/

[KingsKing]

Found a previous Twitter discussion, with an interesting spreadsheet grid- https://mobile.twitter.com/Michael_Fabi ... 730438144/

That spreadsheet would have made my life easier instead of tracking all the stats down earlier one at a time lol.

But again they all maintained solid YPC averages the year after with the exception of Davis who only played 4 games.
The real difference was volume , maybe Henry doesn't get 360 carries this year but even if he gets 280-300 he should have a RB1 season.

Another poster touched on it earlier in the thread about Henry being undervalued and if you are a contender you are probably better off holding onto him because he wont net a substantial offer. In the 2 leagues I own him I drafted him in both leagues. In one of those leagues I have never received a single offer for him in 5 years , in the other I once was offered a late 1st round pick for him which I instantly rejected.

[Ice]

Really good redraft back. If you own him ride him.

No issue trading him either but he looks like one of those players who's actual value is greater than his trade value.

[jetsfan5757]

No issue trading him either but he looks like one of those players who's actual value is greater than his trade value.

If his actual value is less than his trade value, then people, especially contenders, should be targeting him, no?

[jetsfan5757]

Whatever your stance on Henry, it was fun to relive some of these: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/308 ... al-moments

Too much fun having him on my squad to trade him. Plus I'm built to win now and there's no way I get fair value for him. I'll be on the Derrick Henry train til the wheels fall off.

[Shoreline Steamers]

No issue trading him either but he looks like one of those players who's actual value is greater than his trade value.

If his actual value is less than his trade value, then people, especially contenders, should be targeting him, no?

I may be misunderstanding you, but no.

If his trade value (what you'd have to pay, or expect to receive by trading him) is higher than his ACTUAL value (what he's worth in real-life) then contenders should not be targeting him.

They'd have to pay a premium for his services, and you'd be getting less than you paid for. That's no way to win in fantasy football. But again, maybe I'm not understanding your point.

[jetsfan5757]

No issue trading him either but he looks like one of those players who's actual value is greater than his trade value.

If his actual value is less than his trade value, then people, especially contenders, should be targeting him, no?

I may be misunderstanding you, but no.

If his trade value (what you'd have to pay, or expect to receive by trading him) is higher than his ACTUAL value (what he's worth in real-life) then contenders should not be targeting him.

They'd have to pay a premium for his services, and you'd be getting less than you paid for. That's no way to win in fantasy football. But again, maybe I'm not understanding your point.

You nailed it, good catch. I misstyped/misspoke.

Ice said Henry’s actual value is greater than his trade value (which I agree with), which is why contenders should be targeting him.

[Anteaters]

Ice said Henry’s actual value is greater than his trade value (which I agree with), which is why contenders should be targeting him.

The problem with that line of thought is no one who makes a trade offer for Henry actually offers what he's worth. The reason is because everyone seems to shade his true value by constantly worrying about usage and assuming next year will be the year he declines, or blindly complaining that he doesn't catch enough balls. So when the trade offer is made, it is never as high as his true value.

In two of my favorite leagues, Henry was the #2 RB and the #1 RB in 2020 scoring. He's 27. He didn't get even half of his professional team's touches until his third season in 2018. He's never suffered a major injury as a pro. Since he joined the NFL in 2016, Henry has played in 15, 16, 16, 15, and 16 games each year. He has missed TWO games in FIVE seasons!!! That is 11 less than CMC has missed in four seasons; 19 fewer than Cook has missed in four seasons; 7 less than Zeke has missed in the same time.

Zeke has 1650+ touches, which is average of 330/yr; Henry has 1250, 250/yr. CMC has 1000, 250/yr; Cook has 917, 229/yr; Kamara has 1000, 250/yr. Numbers don't lie. I'll take Henry's 250 touches per season with no injury history over CMC and Cook's 250/yr with injury history.

So we're talking about a 27 y.o. who has finished as a top3 fantasy RB for the last two seasons. Yet his trade value seems to be about half that of CMC, much less than Cooks & Kamara, and even slightly behind guys like JT, Swift, and Akers who haven't come close to matching his proven results.

As a Henry owner, I would consider an offer that truly matched his value as one of the top 3 RB in fantasy who has given me no reason to doubt he'll have at least two more top5 finishes. But, if I get an offer that values Henry somewhere between Mixon and MGordon, I'm not even going to bother to respond when I hit NO.

My opinion is that Henry should receive offers maybe less than CMC and Cook, but slightly higher than Kamara. I'll give JT the benefit of youth and potential in being possibly more valuable, but not any other 2019 or 2020 rookie. If I have a team built to win in 2021, I want Henry over every young RB except maybe JT, over Kamara, and based on recent injury history, over Cook and CMC. That's not to say I wouldn't take CMC or Cook if offered straight up for Henry - but if I had a $1000 riding on which would have a better overall 2021 season, I'd feel more comfortable with Henry.

No trade offers value Henry like that. That's why very few Henry owners (who know and have felt his true value) are trading him right now.