Derrick Henry? What gives??

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Jigga94
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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:46 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 am
Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.
Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby dynastyninja » Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:54 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:46 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 am
Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.
Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB
Just for reference, $10m is ~5% of the salary cap. $15m is ~8%. A good running back can be worth that portion of the cap. Zeke absolutely is.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:45 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:54 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:46 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 am
Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.
Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB
Just for reference, $10m is ~5% of the salary cap. $15m is ~8%. A good running back can be worth that portion of the cap. Zeke absolutely is.
Absolutely. I agree Zeke's deal looks fairly good as long as he can hold it together or their line doesn't deteriorate after they sign... I won't say it lol

Are you willing to pay Gurley or DJ close to 10% of the cap? What about Gordon or LF who have shown injury concerns or had a heavy load when active. I'm just not so sure the risk is worth it most times.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:20 pm

Next year isn't part of Zeke's new deal fyi, it's the last year of his rookie deal. The new contract kicks in in 2021.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:41 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:20 pm
Next year isn't part of Zeke's new deal fyi, it's the last year of his rookie deal. The new contract kicks in in 2021.
Ahh thought that might have been the case. It's structured on a fairly straight line up so from flipping years I didn't really notice. Thanks.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:53 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 am
Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.
I don't think Henry will get Top-5 money at his position. There's certainly room for the Titans to get a reasonable contract done.

With that said, Henry is a rare bellcow starting RB who's going to hit free agency with very little mileage. This is going to be his first 300+ touch season of his career, after 4 seasons. I don't see any decline coming. Plus, he's only missed 1 game in 4 seasons.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:25 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:53 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 am
Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.
I don't think Henry will get Top-5 money at his position. There's certainly room for the Titans to get a reasonable contract done.

With that said, Henry is a rare bellcow starting RB who's going to hit free agency with very little mileage. This is going to be his first 300+ touch season of his career, after 4 seasons. I don't see any decline coming. Plus, he's only missed 1 game in 4 seasons.
He had over 400 touches his final season at Bama, but you're right about his NFL career. I would be more than happy giving him a deal like Mark Ingram got. 3 years and 15 million but I don't think there is any way Henry signs that. Devonta Freeman is scheduled to make 9.5 million next year and if I'm Henry's agent I look at that contract and make my floor 10.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Littleton
DB: Bell

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:37 pm

I remember when DJ was going to age well because of his "lack of mileage".... It's an over rated "stat" and has no real bearing on anything. No one in the league has higher mileage than AP and Gore, and they've been playing very well for their age for a while.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:19 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:37 pm
I remember when DJ was going to age well because of his "lack of mileage".... It's an over rated "stat" and has no real bearing on anything. No one in the league has higher mileage than AP and Gore, and they've been playing very well for their age for a while.
Unlike DJ, Henry has a clean bill of health entering his contract year.

Forget who said it in the Devy thread ... but mileage on a car doesn't matter so long as the maintenance record is clean.

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:38 am

Cool, people aren't cars...

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:57 am

Dj had a clean bill of health too... Hurt his leg at the end of 2016 when it was wrenched to put his ankle to his head but he was fine by OTAs, and he broke his wrist once, which could happen to anyone really, and it's not a long term compromising injury either
12 Team 20 man roster 4 reserve slots 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1WR/RB/TE 1K 1DEF
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister

Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby ArrylT » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:38 pm

I for one would be pretty happy if Derrick Henry could get into the 35-45 reception total range. His targets have been slowly climbing each year (at a snails pace) so I am not certain he'll get that many targets even with a Lewis departure.

One fun fact though - and likely not to continue into Year 5 (although it would be awesome if it did) is that his rushing yardage, total yardage (from scrimmage), Yards per game & Rushing Attempts pet game have increased every year for 4 years straight.

He is just having his FIRST 300+ touch season so not a ton of wear & tear either.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby MrUbuto » Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:57 am

Everyone is mocking a lot of wrs in the first but honestly I'm predicting 4 or 5 rbs in the 1st. Why?

The first 5-7 years of an RB are their moat productive and cheapest.

If I was a GM I would just grab one in the first every 4 years
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby PR0v3 » Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:17 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:57 am
Everyone is mocking a lot of wrs in the first but honestly I'm predicting 4 or 5 rbs in the 1st. Why?

The first 5-7 years of an RB are their moat productive and cheapest.

If I was a GM I would just grab one in the first every 4 years
Ehhh, RB is arguably the least valuable position of all 22 starters. Spending 1/4 1sts on one seems like a bad idea. If I was a GM I don’t think I would ever spend more than 3rd on one lol.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Jimmy G
RB: Penny, Mattison
WR: K. Allen, Boyd, Hollywood, C. Samuel, Deebo, A. Miller, C. Davis, Washington, Ross, Pettis, Trequan
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, Everett, OJ
K: Legatron
Taxi: JJAW, Justice, Hurd
2020 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Derrick Henry? What gives??

Postby nathanq42 » Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:10 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:57 am
Everyone is mocking a lot of wrs in the first but honestly I'm predicting 4 or 5 rbs in the 1st. Why?

The first 5-7 years of an RB are their moat productive and cheapest.

If I was a GM I would just grab one in the first every 4 years
A practice squad level talent can put up respectable numbers behind Dallas's Oline. There is no need to spend big money/draft capital on a running back. They may be one of the most important offensive pieces, but they are just so dirt cheap, and if you have the right pieces around them Alfred Morris can do well. Not a single team that has paid their running back big bucks has had it go in their favour, except maybe Zeke but he is still on his rookie deal anyways. Bell, DJ, Gurley, D Freeman; not a single one has been terribly relevant since getting paid.
12 Team 20 man roster 4 reserve slots 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1WR/RB/TE 1K 1DEF
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister

Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)


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