Derrick Henry? What gives??

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Adidas95
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Derrick Henry

Postby Adidas95 » Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:07 pm

Seems like there's a lot of hype surrounding Henry, especially for 2018. Do you guys think the hype is real? I see him polled vastly superior to backs like Kareem Hunt even though both were drafted similarly in their rookie drafts. Do you guys think he's the best guy to target from the 2016 class?

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:38 pm

I think the hype is warranted. Henry is a similar level NFL prospect to guys like Cook and Mixon, and he has a better situation than any of the top rookie RBs if Murray is out of the way. Murray has $0 guaranteed of his remaining 2 years/$13m after this season, and a ton of carries in his career. I think there is a better than 50% chance Henry enters next year as the starter, and an outside shot that Murray gets hurt or sees his performance fall off a cliff this year. With his measurables, past running success, and the line in front of him, it is gonna be fun to watch him as the starter.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:53 am

Henry was really good last season and could've been a lot better. That's the scary part. The only thing that held him back was DeMarco Murray playing like a Top-5 RB.

Henry will get his chance in the future. It may not be next season, but if Murray has to miss any extended time, Henry is going to put up big numbers.

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby skip » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:31 am

Had Henry been the pick by the Cowboys last year instead of Zeke, he would have been the 1.01 pick and we'd be talking about him among the top 3 backs in the league right now.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:24 am

skip wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:31 am
Had Henry been the pick by the Cowboys last year instead of Zeke, he would have been the 1.01 pick and we'd be talking about him among the top 3 backs in the league right now.
That's the thing. With Conklin looking like a stud RT, the situation is about as good as Dallas if he ever gets full control of that backfield. Henry isn't the complete player Zeke is, but he is on the same level as a runner.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Goddard » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:52 am

I think if you don't buy him now, you won't be able to afford him this time next year.

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Friction » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:57 am

I hate betting on injuries, but DeMarco is like a Sam Bradford to me in that I would be really surprised to see him make it through two consecutive seasons w/o missing significant time. I think Henry hits the ground running when he gets that chance, pun intended. Good line + rising offense+ good at the goal line= fantasy points galore.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Vcize » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:18 pm

The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over. He seems like the kind of guy that needs a good line to let him get a head of steam.

It's also interesting how highly people think of how he ran last year. He was a part-time back playing against tired defenses that ran for 4.5ypc, roughly the same as the starter. Normally when a backup RB gets a lot of hype it's because he's banging away 5+ ypc well above what the starter does, as should be expected from the CoP guy playing against tired legs.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby RestoreTheRoar » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:59 pm

I really have no idea how to value him. His June ADP is RB14. Right behind CMC, McCoy & Cook. Right ahead of Murray, Crowell, Miller. I guess that feels about right. But then you look at all players and there's a lot of non-RBs I like a lot more for that price. Henry is at 43 but surrounded by DT (38), Crowder (44), Martavis (51), Parker (52), Tate (56), etc.

I know contract isn't guaranteed but what if Murray does play 2 more years? He didn't really show any signs of wearing down last year. Passing game only going to get better and will take some workload off. Henry is bound to probably eat into his workload too allowing Murray to maybe play a little longer as well.

I just worry that you could be paying fringe RB1 prices right now for a guy who may not start until 2019. Obviously things can go the other way but I think I'm okay missing on him at that price.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:07 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:18 pm
The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over.
Why would the offensive line suddenly become bad? Conklin isn't going anywhere, Lewan is under contract two more years and Jones is under contract for a while too. Tennessee's going to keep investing in their line because they want to run heavy and protect Mariota. It shouldn't be a concern.

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:38 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:18 pm
The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over. He seems like the kind of guy that needs a good line to let him get a head of steam.
Taylor Lewan is 25, has 2 years left on his rookie contract, and will be a prime candidate for getting an extension next year. Jack Conklin is 22 and has 4 years left on his rookie contract. Ben Jones is 27 and has 3 years left on his contract. Titans line should be good for awhile. Plus, we are talking about a high draft pick and a record holding RB at the NCAA and HS level. He has looked good anytime he has run in his career. Sure it was always good lines in college and pros, but he can only control what he can control.
RestoreTheRoar wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:59 pm
I know contract isn't guaranteed but what if Murray does play 2 more years? He didn't really show any signs of wearing down last year. Passing game only going to get better and will take some workload off. Henry is bound to probably eat into his workload too allowing Murray to maybe play a little longer as well.
Murray averaged 4.87 YPC over the first 10 games and 3.5 over the last 6 games (102 carries in those 6). I think he did show some signs of wearing down (Henry was 4.96 YPC on 48 carries in 5 of those 6 games- he missed the game @Indy). Plus, backs with Murray's carry total tend to completely fall off of a cliff when they do wear down. Maybe it doesn't happen this season and they keep him going into next, but I would be quite surprised to see a guy with his style and carries being effective past 30.
RestoreTheRoar wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:59 pm
I just worry that you could be paying fringe RB1 prices right now for a guy who may not start until 2019.
But aren't people doing the same with Cook and Mixon? Those guys went 41 and 48 in this year's draft and also go into crowded backfields. Henry went 45 last year to a team that didn't need him and, unlike the other 2, the line in front of him isn't bad.
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Vcize » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:14 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:38 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:18 pm
The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over. He seems like the kind of guy that needs a good line to let him get a head of steam.
Taylor Lewan is 25, has 2 years left on his rookie contract, and will be a prime candidate for getting an extension next year. Jack Conklin is 22 and has 4 years left on his rookie contract. Ben Jones is 27 and has 3 years left on his contract. Titans line should be good for awhile. Plus, we are talking about a high draft pick and a record holding RB at the NCAA and HS level. He has looked good anytime he has run in his career. Sure it was always good lines in college and pros, but he can only control what he can control.
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:07 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:18 pm
The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over.
Why would the offensive line suddenly become bad? Conklin isn't going anywhere, Lewan is under contract two more years and Jones is under contract for a while too. Tennessee's going to keep investing in their line because they want to run heavy and protect Mariota. It shouldn't be a concern.
It seems like simply good or above average offensive lines seem to be variable beyond the very short term.

It's a group of 5 guys, not just one player. A lot of times all it takes is an injury to one of them or a contract dispute or a trade and then all of the sudden guys are being moved around on the line and nothing meshes anymore. I feel like short of the really elite lines a lot of times when we talk about a guy having a good line going into a season, within a year or two that strength has become a weakness.

This may be more of just a gut feeling though. I don't really have any metrics so I could be wrong.
RestoreTheRoar wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:59 pm
I know contract isn't guaranteed but what if Murray does play 2 more years? He didn't really show any signs of wearing down last year. Passing game only going to get better and will take some workload off. Henry is bound to probably eat into his workload too allowing Murray to maybe play a little longer as well.
Murray averaged 4.87 YPC over the first 10 games and 3.5 over the last 6 games (102 carries in those 6). I think he did show some signs of wearing down (Henry was 4.96 YPC on 48 carries in 5 of those 6 games- he missed the game @Indy). Plus, backs with Murray's carry total tend to completely fall off of a cliff when they do wear down. Maybe it doesn't happen this season and they keep him going into next, but I would be quite surprised to see a guy with his style and carries being effective past 30.
Murray didn't wear down last year so much as he got injured. He picked up a nagging foot injury and his effectiveness dropped off pretty much immediately from there.

I do agree he seems prime for a fast dropoff when it happens though.
Team 1 (12 team FFPC)
QB: Wentz
RB: Cook, A Jones, Mixon, Kerryon, Hunt, Hill, Drake
WR: OBJ, Lockett, ARob, Woods, ARob, Preston
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Team 2 (12 team PPR, q/r/r/w/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby Adidas95 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:17 pm

Do you guys think 2018 Henry will take over or will Murray still be the starter (or will he be cut by then)

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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:34 pm

Adidas95 wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:17 pm
Do you guys think 2018 Henry will take over or will Murray still be the starter (or will he be cut by then)
On this one, we are playing probabilities. I think it is more likely that Henry enters 2018 as the starter than Murray, but it is probably a 55/45 bet in my mind right now.

ETA- but as you can see, I am one of the guys pushing the Henry hype, so weigh my opinion accordingly :mrgreen:
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Re: Derrick Henry

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:45 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:14 pm
It seems like simply good or above average offensive lines seem to be variable beyond the very short term.

It's a group of 5 guys, not just one player. A lot of times all it takes is an injury to one of them or a contract dispute or a trade and then all of the sudden guys are being moved around on the line and nothing meshes anymore. I feel like short of the really elite lines a lot of times when we talk about a guy having a good line going into a season, within a year or two that strength has become a weakness.

This may be more of just a gut feeling though. I don't really have any metrics so I could be wrong.
You are right than line quality can fluctuate from year to year, but Tennessee does not have a good to above average line, they have a Dallas-level line. I am as confident in Tennessee's line quality continuing as I am Dallas'.

And apart from the line, I think Henry is an equal talent to Cook and Mixon. There is a lot of room for the Titans line to regress before it gets to the state that the Vikings and Bengal's line is currently in.

On the Murray injury, Drop-offs happen in a lot of ways, including not being able to play effectively when nicked up. Henry was also playing injured at the time, and even missed the game against the weakest defense in the first game of that 6 game stretch. Henry and Murray were splitting reps about 2/1 early in favor of Murray in those games (with Henry generally getting more 4th quarter reps). Even just considering the first 3 quarters where they were both playing the same defense, Henry simply looked better to me down the stretch.

Obviously that is subjective, but that is what I am going on.
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