You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

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OhCruelestRanter
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am

Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17

Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby M-Dub » Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17

Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
So you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.
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QB: Stafford $8/1, Hill $1/1
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby thebeast » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:33 am

M-Dub wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17

Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
So you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.
What are you basing this statement on? Everything that has happened since the end of last season until now makes the case that his value should be increasing.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby M-Dub » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 am

thebeast wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:33 am
M-Dub wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17

Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
So you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.
What are you basing this statement on? Everything that has happened since the end of last season until now makes the case that his value should be increasing.
Since the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
All are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties

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QB: Wilson
RB: CMC, Mixon, Lindsay, Gallman, M. Davis, Pollard, Booker
WR: Godwin, Golladay, Woods, Keenan, Crowder, Sammy, Coulter
TE: Ertz, Irv Smith, L. Thomas
Taxi: Tua, McFarland, Joe Reed, Hurts

Put The Coke On My Dak
QB: Dak, Ryan, Baker
RB: CMC, Sanders, Mixon, Dobbins, Foreman
WR: Chark, Viska, Kirk, Patrick, Perriman, Coutee, Isabella, J. Grant, Coulter
TE: Kelce, OJH, Warring
Taxi: Duvernay, Hurts, Cephus

Keep On Hockenson the Free World
$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Stafford $8/1, Hill $1/1
RB: CEH $26/5, Vaughn $9/4, Coleman $17/2, Gallman $1/1, Breida $1/1
WR: Godwin $50/3, DJM $43/3, Fuller $14/1, Crowder $21/1, Sanders $20/1, Mims $6/5, Edwards $3/5, Hamler $2/3, Patrick $1/1, Lazard $1/1, D. Moore $1/1
TE: Hock $20/4, Trautman $2/5

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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby dlf_mikeh » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:26 am

M-Dub wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 am
Since the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
I came here to say this. The RoJo love is ridiculous to me. Maybe he'll be amazing and prove me wrong, but that usually happens right away, not year 3. Good NFL RBs start producing immediately. RoJo is still a hard sell for me.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby Patsfan86 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:41 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:26 am
M-Dub wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 am
Since the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
I came here to say this. The RoJo love is ridiculous to me. Maybe he'll be amazing and prove me wrong, but that usually happens right away, not year 3. Good NFL RBs start producing immediately. RoJo is still a hard sell for me.
True for the most part but then you have outliers like Derrick Henry here and there, so it does happen. I am by no means a RoJo truther btw.

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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby CGW » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:05 am

I'm still not buying him as the future for the Bucs. But I'm also not buying Vaughn a round earlier than RoJo. I wouldn't be shocked to see RoJo and McCoy splitting carries this year, with the occasional sprinkle of Vaughn. They were always going to bring in RB depth. You are kidding yourself if you thought they would move forward with just RoJo. Vaughn and McCoy were probably best case scenario for RoJo. There are 6 rookies I like better than Vaughn, and McCoy is one of the less threatening FA. If this was a Dobbins+Freeman it would be a different story.

As I've said several times, it's not about love or hate of RoJo. It's the fact that no1 is paying a 1st to buy him (or even a decent 2nd), so if you already have him on your roster you may as well hold onto him at that price.
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TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers, Herndon

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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Minshew
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, R. Jones, Singletary, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, D. Johnson, Aiyuk, M. Brown, Slayton, Mooney, Kirk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Perriman
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby thebeast » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:14 pm

M-Dub wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 am
thebeast wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:33 am
M-Dub wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pm


So you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.
What are you basing this statement on? Everything that has happened since the end of last season until now makes the case that his value should be increasing.
Since the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
So the Bucs pass on all the elite college RBs and get a guy in the 3rd round and that is a negative for Rojo? They were always going to draft a RB, they weren't going to just go into the season with Jones and Dare. The Vaughn pick was his best case scenario in a draft loaded with RB talent. Every scouting report I've read on Vaughn has pre-draft has projected his ceiling as an NFL back up RB.

From week 8-16 in ppr league Jones was RB 22, Mosterat was RB 21, Montgomery was RB 23... I actually hope people keep sleeping on him, because I think he is a great target at his current value. He is the type of guy everyone should be looking for, someone whos value could increase 5-fold by next year. I am not saying that will happen, my point is he is the type of guy you want to take a shot on because the cost is low and the potential return is huge.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby CGW » Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:47 am

Context is hard to interpret sometimes, but Arians said Vaughn may get on the field with a role as a kick returner. Doesnt sound good for those expecting Vaughn to overtake RoJo right away this season.
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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco
RB | Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed, Wilson
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal, Coutee
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers, Herndon

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Minshew
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, R. Jones, Singletary, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, D. Johnson, Aiyuk, M. Brown, Slayton, Mooney, Kirk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Perriman
TE | Andrews, Henry, Sample, Schultz

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

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RB | Hines, Henderson, Wilkins, Penny, Ahmed, Guice
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:21 am

I expect RoJo to be the starter this season. Vaughn is a bust imo and McCoy couldn't even suit up for the Super Bowl. They basically have nobody else to rely on, so it's RoJo by default.

I expect him to fail enough during the year to be replaced by next season. Missing some key blocks, specifically. I really do fear that a missed block by RoJo will end Brady's career.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:07 am

I’m buying. I don’t think RoJo is going to miraculously develop into a stud RB, but he’s got to be just about the cheapest RB with real potential for 15-20 touches a game. If he busts, it costs you, what, a second?

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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:06 pm

RoJo's case is getting weird. He just turned 23, and he's going in the late 4th of high stakes redraft leagues... but his dynasty value is incredibly flat, sitting pretty squarely in that 8th-9th round.

Normally, I'd suggest that one of those things is wrong and lean toward trusting the high stakes data, but I'm not sure that's the case. Young players who are more valued by the redraft community than the dynasty community tend to play well and then see their dynasty ADP rise- like Austin Ekeler last year. In this case, maybe they can both be right, because I think it's almost impossible that Jones' dynasty ADP will ever actually improve.

I think that the dynasty community is so permanently take-locked on Jones (I too hated him as a prospect) that his value is never going to reflect his production. He would need to put up back to back RB1 seasons, and even then I'd be surprised if he breaks into the top 12 RBs in ADP. There's also the possibility that with a huge free agent class looming and some decent RBs in Etienne, Hubbard, Harris, and Hill in the draft, that he gets outright replaced in 2021.

I tend to run my teams by focusing primarily, if not almost exclusively, on value; because of that, even on contenders it's unlikely that I would try to buy Jones right now. If you're considering buying, then I think you need to be in one of two situations:
1. You're a true believer, and you think Jones is talented enough to lock down that job for the next two years of his contract and potentially get an extension.
2. You're a contender, you can get him for cheap, and you're okay with the fact that the odds of you ever being able to get real value back for him are negligible, even if he totally lights it up.

In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby perkinsrooster » Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:54 pm

I got him at 7.09 in a SF startup this week. After James Conner and before Vaughan and Moss. I got Mark Ingram at 11.09 in the same draft.

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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby trc » Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:05 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:06 pm
In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
I don't know why you care all that much about that?
The take was that he is bad, and you actually agree.

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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:01 pm

trc wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:05 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:06 pm
In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
I don't know why you care all that much about that?
The take was that he is bad, and you actually agree.
Just trying to keep things on topic. :wink:
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