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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:27 pm
by FantasyFreak
Darwin's ADP was steadily climbing, I expect it to come back down to earth. He went for a 2020 first in a 10 team league the other day.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:56 pm
by Pullo Vision
So many strawman arguments here-

-Well, you said he was worthless but he'll be the lead back in an explosive offense. Yes, small sample size, but look what he did when he took control of the backfield. Andy Reid has unleashed this Damien Williams by playing to his strengths.

Well, you said he'd be a stud RB1 for at least two years. In reality, he'll be an integral part of an explosive offense. While the sample size is worth keeping in mind (as well as the fact he never seized a lead role in Miami's murky backfield), the fact is he was very productive once he became the lead back last year.

Aside from 1 or 2 outliers, I think everyone else has pretty similar views on his value and anticipated near term production.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:50 pm
by Huh
Again, he was the starter after the Ajayi trade which meant nothing in the end because it was a committee. Drake and Williams are peas in the same pod. Always having to fight somebody off.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:25 pm
by Huh
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:27 pm
Darwin's ADP was steadily climbing, I expect it to come back down to earth. He went for a 2020 first in a 10 team league the other day.
Yep everybody that drafted Darwin in the last three weeks just got kicked in the junk

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:16 pm
by Bot101
Huh wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:25 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:27 pm
Darwin's ADP was steadily climbing, I expect it to come back down to earth. He went for a 2020 first in a 10 team league the other day.
Yep everybody that drafted Darwin in the last three weeks just got kicked in the junk
Im the guy who sold Thompson for the 2020 1st the day before McCoy signed. Couldnt pass on that value especially since its my 1st and I'm a contender. If my team gets hammered by injuries then I've got a pick in that loaded class. Im still a big fan of Thompson, and I'll absolutely be trying to reacquire after his inevitable drop in value.

However McCoy kicks everyone in the nuts except for the McCoy owners. I initially thought he was just a veteran presence. But I've changed my mind. He will be involved more and more as the season goes. Ive been saying for months, whether or not you are a contender you need to sell DW now (during spring) while you had a window. I got push back from every DW owner who is a contender. Your window just closed to get anything of value. If DW is a needed contributor to contend then I hardly consider you a real contender. Guys like him are free off waivers and are not weekly startable assets during the season till something happens. He had no value prior to last 5 games, and will no longer have any dynasty value. If he has a big game you got 1 last shot to sell.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:34 pm
by Pullo Vision
Bot, you sound kinda doom and gloom. Next offseason, do you think people will offer a 3rd for DW? Will Williams owners accept, from your perspective?

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:34 pm
by FantasyFreak
Bot101 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:16 pm
Huh wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:25 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:27 pm
Darwin's ADP was steadily climbing, I expect it to come back down to earth. He went for a 2020 first in a 10 team league the other day.
Yep everybody that drafted Darwin in the last three weeks just got kicked in the junk
Im the guy who sold Thompson for the 2020 1st the day before McCoy signed. Couldnt pass on that value especially since its my 1st and I'm a contender. If my team gets hammered by injuries then I've got a pick in that loaded class. Im still a big fan of Thompson, and I'll absolutely be trying to reacquire after his inevitable drop in value.

However McCoy kicks everyone in the nuts except for the McCoy owners. I initially thought he was just a veteran presence. But I've changed my mind. He will be involved more and more as the season goes. Ive been saying for months, whether or not you are a contender you need to sell DW now (during spring) while you had a window. I got push back from every DW owner who is a contender. Your window just closed to get anything of value. If DW is a needed contributor to contend then I hardly consider you a real contender. Guys like him are free off waivers and are not weekly startable assets during the season till something happens. He had no value prior to last 5 games, and will no longer have any dynasty value. If he has a big game you got 1 last shot to sell.
Your'e on glue. D Williams is worth two firsts. His Fantasy points per touch per dollar are still going to be ultra high. Shady will need to outscore D Williams to have his FPPTPD even come close to Williams. The Chiefs will see that Williams is clearly the best back for their money, and offer him an extension in season at another cheap rate, to be in KC for the next 4 years.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:59 pm
by JFever
I think there’s a pretty good chance that McCoy and DW split carries fairly evenly and Darwin gets the scraps. Figure that will put both McCoy and DW in the mid to low rb2 area. I’m thinking there is a very good chance that KC addresses their rb Corp in the 2020 draft. Thinking that DW holds value past this season is rooted in wishful thinking imo.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:32 pm
by Bot101
Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:34 pm
Bot, you sound kinda doom and gloom. Next offseason, do you think people will offer a 3rd for DW? Will Williams owners accept, from your perspective?
Ha

Nope just a realist. These guys pop up every year.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:34 pm
by Huh
JFever wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:59 pm
I think there’s a pretty good chance that McCoy and DW split carries fairly evenly and Darwin gets the scraps. Figure that will put both McCoy and DW in the mid to low rb2 area. I’m thinking there is a very good chance that KC addresses their rb Corp in the 2020 draft. Thinking that DW holds value past this season is rooted in wishful thinking imo.
I think the vast majority of us Damien truthers based our trutherism on the fact that he was the best back on the team this year. He’s a redraft asset in a dynasty world and still could be a league winning asset. Shady appearing was an unexpected variable. Sometimes as dynasty owners we only look at tomorrow. Sell sell sell. The chance of winning today should always trump the dreams of the future. No one was getting anything for Damien that was worth passing on the one year potential. I never got an offer of a first. Maybe somebody else did. The chance of it working out are still alive and if it blows up in our faces the thought process was still correct. Fortune favors the bold.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:04 am
by Lord_Varys
If you guys have time to listen, here is Reid's presser from yesterday. It's interesting to see how his actual words get twisted in the media reports.

https://www.facebook.com/KansasCityChie ... 674631491/

"We're lucky to have Damien, who we consider a starter, as we do shady, so it's a good situation." I don't hear that so much as "co starters" as "we have 2 guys that are starting caliber."

He went on to say that Shady needs to learn the playbook first before he gets significant time. So how can this guy be a co starter?

Also mentioned there's not very many 31 year old RBs out there. But that the footwork and vision is still there. Enough to warrant a spot on the bus.

Asked: "Once shady gets rolling do you see much of a role for Darwin Thompson?"
Answered: "Sure. I've done this before, I've done it by committee, most of my time in Philly that's what we did, they all had success, and it worked out pretty well for them. So yeah, we have the ability to play everybody if we go that route." So basically he dodged the answer. It's not necessarily "every week will be a committee" but perhaps more of a "anyone can step up if we need them to."

I got no clue how this is gonna shake out. I'm guessing just like everyone else. My take if you're wondering is that Damien is going to be the 60% leader who puts up RB2 numbers until injury or ineffectiveness inevitably pave the way for someone else. But that take's irrelevant to the point of this post: you should always read news reports -- even from beat reporters -- carefully. It was funny to see reports yesterday "Shady is co-starter already" or whatever, when really Reid said nothing of the sort. A beat reporter phrases something selectively, then suddenly it's a rotoblurb and the fantasy world loses its mind.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:24 am
by ArrylT
Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:04 am
A beat reporter phrases something selectively, then suddenly it's a rotoblurb and the fantasy world loses its mind.
Sometimes they have agendas they wish to push.

Regardless good work going deeper into the context of what he said. :thumbup:

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:39 am
by Kurt G.O.A.T.
i just got williams at 6.9 in a 14 team league. and i didn't even pick him, the computer did as i wasn't able to make the draft.

not sure how far he would have fallen if not for that. i ranked him to what i thought was low enough not to get him. i thought he would go in the 4th/5th at the latest.

i actually feel pretty good about it. mccoy probably has the same impact that charles had in denver.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:45 am
by Fezzik
Pre-Shady signing, I recently traded Philip Rivers for Darwin Thompson in a 1 qb league (league 2 in signature). I feel perfectly fine about that still.

Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:46 am
by ArrylT
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:39 am
i just got williams at 6.9 in a 14 team league. and i didn't even pick him, the computer did as i wasn't able to make the draft.

not sure how far he would have fallen if not for that. i ranked him to what i thought was low enough not to get him. i thought he would go in the 4th/5th at the latest.

i actually feel pretty good about it. mccoy probably has the same impact that charles had in denver.
In my 4 most recent re-drafts he went

3.01 (25th)
2.13 (30th)
4.11 (47th)
2.12 (24th)

So yeah 6.9 or 79th overall is a great discount