RBBC in Kansas City

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby pvillebiker » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:45 pm

Even if Reid does want to have an alpha RB, Damien's not exactly giving him much to work with yet. It's still not too late for that narrative to play out, but a RBBC looks more and more likely each week Williams does not seize the job. I take his words as a direct challenge to D Williams to prove him wrong.

Oh yeah, imagine Tyreek's reaction if the Chiefs did trade for Gordon, which would almost certainily come with a big and almost immediate pay day! Can't imagine he'd take that very well, but you never know.

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:10 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:32 pm
There is ZERO argument that this could be an RBBC.
Using historical data is often the way that I go too. This year is different.

In previous Reid eras, he's had either a workhorse or he's really only had one guy who could carry the load.

I think he feels that D Williams isn't a solid back given his injury history, and perhaps there isn't another back on the roster worthy of being the workhorse.

I can't explain it, but it just doesn't feel like it'll be 1 RB to carry the load.
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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:16 pm

Wow ... Damien Williams Points per Touch will be amazing this year 🤪🤪

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1)| DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock (IR), E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, L. Murray, M. Walton, J. Mixon,, J. Adams, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, M. Gallup, D.K. Metcalf, M. Goodwin, Da. Moore, J. Ross (IR)
|TE| M. Gesicki, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gathers, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| Q. Williams, S. Richardson, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key, J. Pierre-Paul (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, M. Kendricks, N. Gerry, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, D. Cole, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| B. Jones, S. Gilmore, M. Peters, G. Conley, D. Trufant, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| #1 (x2), #3, #5, #6
|2021 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #6

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby FantasyDumDum » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:26 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:10 pm
FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:32 pm
There is ZERO argument that this could be an RBBC.
Using historical data is often the way that I go too. This year is different.

In previous Reid eras, he's had either a workhorse or he's really only had one guy who could carry the load.

I think he feels that D Williams isn't a solid back given his injury history, and perhaps there isn't another back on the roster worthy of being the workhorse.

I can't explain it, but it just doesn't feel like it'll be 1 RB to carry the load.
That’s reasonable. Admitting that it is how you feel and you can’t explain it, but that it is your opinion, is the first such response I have received here in a long while.

I don’t agree and I do tend to lean on stats and tape, rather than feeling.

Speaking of RBBCs. Here are some more stats...

Week 13: 27%

Week 14: 50%

Week 15: 73%

Week 16: 64%

Week 17: 52% (Sat 2nd half to rest for playoffs)

Playoff Game 1: 75%

Playoff Game 2: 79%


Those are Damien Williams snap percentages as the backup for 2 games, and the starter for 5 last year. Over his time as the starter, he had roughly 73% of team RB snaps and an even higher % of team RB touches, at 83%.

Does that count as RBBC? Because Andy Reid claimed last year that is what he wanted.

And Damien Williams was putting up top 1-2 RB overall numbers on that share.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

Cameron Giles
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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:37 pm

This isn't really news. Nobody expected Williams to operate as the every down RB. He's always been expected to be the starter who gets the most touches of a committee.

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby Lord_Varys » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:59 pm

As long as Damien starts and gets the majority of RB targets the he'll return value where he's being drafted, and still be extreme value at the price you acquired him for, assuming dynasty or keeper formats. This year. If healthy. /thread

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby AussieMate » Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:06 pm

Some one mentioned it in the locked thread but I think it'll come down to RB talent. If Williams performs head and shoulders above Thompson and Hyde and Reid thinks he can last a full season plus playoffs then D.Willians will be the bellcow, if not we'll have a committee.
I have the same arguenent for Sanders, more often then not it seems like teams go rbbc based on their available talent.
Can't wait for mid season so we have a fair sample size to see where each are heading.

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby Bot101 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:07 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:39 pm
Bot101 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:51 pm
Just to test the value, a little while back I put Tyler Boyd in the inbox of the Damien Williams owner and he rejected, no counter. Some people are willing to die on these hills. Im ecstatic he rejected though.
Why? I value Boyd and Williams pretty equally. If I were set at WR and needed a RB to contend, I'd keep Williams as well.
Id say that is very foolish in a dynasty context. I dont care if you are contending or rebuilding, Damien Williams is a hot potato. He is a sell now (if you can get a 2020 1st) while you can. He is this years Alex Collins. We do this same dance every year with certain players. Boyd has an elite college dominator, elite breakout age, hes young, and just had your typical year 3 WR breakout. Oh, and he just got paid. He is an asset that is fairly secure long term. Williams is not, hes 27 years old, looked pretty awful before being in KC, and got a wonderful 2 year extension.... for 5 million dollars. His dead cap in 2019 is $1 mil and $500k in 2020. If Thompson doesn't show anything this year then KC will undoubtedly be drafting their next stud in 2020.

And lets remember, if not for Spencer Ware getting hurt (ironically thats also how Hunt got his moment), Damien Williams wouldnt even be talked about. He was playing special teams before Ware got hurt. Let that sink in.

Selling these types of short term players is how you extend your dynasty squad. If I am in redraft, yeah ill draft Damien all day long. But you should be experienced enough to know that Damien Williams will not be worth anything past this season. Despite his fantasy points per touch in a 5 game sample at the end of last season.

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby FantasyDumDum » Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:12 pm

More interesting numbers:

2017 snap percentage
Hunt 64%
West 21%

2016 snap percentage
Ware 53%
West 35%

2015 snap percentage
West 49%
Charles 26%

2014 snap percentage
Charles 64%
Davis 30%



Some of those are skewed a bit due to injury, but what even is an RBBC if all of these starters above were getting bellcow touches between @ 17-22 per game? We aren’t talking about Zeke or Gurley volume, just entry level bellcow 19-20 touches per game.



And even if, trying to 100% steelman the argument against Damien, even if he only gets lead RBBC touches in the 15 touch range, he is still fully capable, as we have seen, of putting up near or above 20 ppg 0.5ppr, aka top half RB1 numbers, and would be expected to do so on those touches. If he faltered, he’s be a low end RB1.

Only way that doesn’t happen is if he gets 12 or less touches per game, is injured, or replaced. I think I’ve laid out why he should be projected for significantly more touches, isn’t any more than marginally more of an injury risk than the average RB, and should not be worried about being replaced by any RB currently on the depth chart.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby knotts4372 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:48 pm

i miss the other thread :( it was finally turning to ppl understanding why fantasyDD was pushing SO HARD to try to make williams worth more. i own williams no where thats likely why i can see this situation for what it likely is. a rbbc that williams might lead for a while until a better option comes along. could he be more sure, but i just dont see it and think the likes of ppl that are head over heals for him are really only the ones that own him alot of places and hoping beyond hope he stays relevant

on another note yes i know i have a troll face as my avatar but dont mean im trolling in the other thread. i just legit dont see what FDD and a few others seem to see with williams as a good rb. i see the guy that has done nothing in 5 years except have a couple good games when the chiefs had literally nobody else to turn to
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DLF hall of famers 16 teams 25 man roster
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IRONCLAD 16 teams 40 man rosters http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/leagues/133985/teams/
974566


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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby FantasyDumDum » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:12 pm

knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:48 pm
i miss the other thread :( it was finally turning to ppl understanding why fantasyDD was pushing SO HARD to try to make williams worth more. i own williams no where thats likely why i can see this situation for what it likely is. a rbbc that williams might lead for a while until a better option comes along.

on another note yes i know i have a troll face as my avatar but dont mean im trolling in the other thread. i just legit dont see what FDD and a few others seem to see with williams as a good rb. i see the guy that has done nothing in 5 years except have a couple good games when the chiefs had literally nobody else to turn to
Here’s what I see:


Stats - self evident, put up RB1 overall type numbers over 6 games, FPPT off the charts

Metrics - High end Combine scores

Ratings - Elite pass catching and blocking RB, average running ratings

Tape - beyond his excellent pass blocking and receiving, check out him trucking Derwin James or his Indy run in the playoffs.

Story - went to JC, started, chose OU and won the starting job, got kicked off team so went from 2-3 rd to UDFA, eventually won he starting job in Miami, then eventually won the starting job in KC. He earned it, and has shown enough to win the starting job at OU, in Miami, and in KC.

Situation - obvious and self evident. One of the very best situations for an RB, especially one with his specific talents, in history.



My question is what others don’t see?
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby azthecrow » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:18 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:12 pm
knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:48 pm
i miss the other thread :( it was finally turning to ppl understanding why fantasyDD was pushing SO HARD to try to make williams worth more. i own williams no where thats likely why i can see this situation for what it likely is. a rbbc that williams might lead for a while until a better option comes along.

on another note yes i know i have a troll face as my avatar but dont mean im trolling in the other thread. i just legit dont see what FDD and a few others seem to see with williams as a good rb. i see the guy that has done nothing in 5 years except have a couple good games when the chiefs had literally nobody else to turn to
Here’s what I see:


Stats - self evident, put up RB1 overall type numbers over 6 games, FPPT off the charts

Metrics - High end Combine scores

Ratings - Elite pass catching and blocking RB, average running ratings

Tape - beyond his excellent pass blocking and receiving, check out him trucking Derwin James or his Indy run in the playoffs.

Story - went to JC, started, chose OU and won the starting job, got kicked off team so went from 2-3 rd to UDFA, eventually won he starting job in Miami, then eventually won the starting job in KC. He earned it, and has shown enough to win the starting job at OU, in Miami, and in KC.

Situation - obvious and self evident. One of the very best situations for an RB, especially one with his specific talents, in history.



My question is what others don’t see?
I don’t get it either. If he performs anywhere close to what he did last year it’s a no-brainer that he will excel in this offense, barring injury.

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby knotts4372 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:26 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:12 pm
knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:48 pm
i miss the other thread :( it was finally turning to ppl understanding why fantasyDD was pushing SO HARD to try to make williams worth more. i own williams no where thats likely why i can see this situation for what it likely is. a rbbc that williams might lead for a while until a better option comes along.

on another note yes i know i have a troll face as my avatar but dont mean im trolling in the other thread. i just legit dont see what FDD and a few others seem to see with williams as a good rb. i see the guy that has done nothing in 5 years except have a couple good games when the chiefs had literally nobody else to turn to
Here’s what I see:


Stats - self evident, put up RB1 overall type numbers over 6 games, FPPT off the charts

Metrics - High end Combine scores

Ratings - Elite pass catching and blocking RB, average running ratings

Tape - beyond his excellent pass blocking and receiving, check out him trucking Derwin James or his Indy run in the playoffs.

Story - went to JC, started, chose OU and won the starting job, got kicked off team so went from 2-3 rd to UDFA, eventually won he starting job in Miami, then eventually won the starting job in KC. He earned it, and has shown enough to win the starting job at OU, in Miami, and in KC.

Situation - obvious and self evident. One of the very best situations for an RB, especially one with his specific talents, in history.



My question is what others don’t see?
this is more of why myself and others think/thought you must be trolling in the other thread or you are just completely delusional. he didnt EARN the starting job. he was the last man standing. his situation is very very far from obvious to anyone looking at this objectively.

ive conceded he could do some things as the head of a rbbc. i actually dont hate him in that role honestly. give him 10-15 touches a game i think fine he'll be a decent flex guy ok no problem for a guy you took off the waiver wire, but seriously stop actintg like hes the next great thing when his sample size is what 4 good games? imho this rbbc news is really the best thing for him and his ff owners. him getting 10-15 touches might keep him somewhat relevant longer than if they threw him out there 25 rushes a game and defenses are actually ready for him this time
Good and the Bad 16 teams 50 man rosters http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/20 ... =07&F=0013

DLF hall of famers 16 teams 25 man roster
http://football29.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... =07&F=0016


IRONCLAD 16 teams 40 man rosters http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/leagues/133985/teams/
974566


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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby FantasyDumDum » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:35 pm

knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:26 pm
FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:12 pm
knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:48 pm
i miss the other thread :( it was finally turning to ppl understanding why fantasyDD was pushing SO HARD to try to make williams worth more. i own williams no where thats likely why i can see this situation for what it likely is. a rbbc that williams might lead for a while until a better option comes along.

on another note yes i know i have a troll face as my avatar but dont mean im trolling in the other thread. i just legit dont see what FDD and a few others seem to see with williams as a good rb. i see the guy that has done nothing in 5 years except have a couple good games when the chiefs had literally nobody else to turn to
Here’s what I see:


Stats - self evident, put up RB1 overall type numbers over 6 games, FPPT off the charts

Metrics - High end Combine scores

Ratings - Elite pass catching and blocking RB, average running ratings

Tape - beyond his excellent pass blocking and receiving, check out him trucking Derwin James or his Indy run in the playoffs.

Story - went to JC, started, chose OU and won the starting job, got kicked off team so went from 2-3 rd to UDFA, eventually won he starting job in Miami, then eventually won the starting job in KC. He earned it, and has shown enough to win the starting job at OU, in Miami, and in KC.

Situation - obvious and self evident. One of the very best situations for an RB, especially one with his specific talents, in history.



My question is what others don’t see?
this is more of why myself and others think/thought you must be trolling in the other thread or you are just completely delusional. he didnt EARN the starting job. he was the last man standing. his situation is very very far from obvious to anyone looking at this objectively.

ive conceded he could do some things as the head of a rbbc. i actually dont hate him in that role honestly. give him 10-15 touches a game i think fine he'll be a decent flex guy ok no problem for a guy you took off the waiver wire, but seriously stop actintg like hes the next great thing when his sample size is what 4 good games? imho this rbbc news is really the best thing for him and his ff owners. him getting 10-15 touches might keep him somewhat relevant longer than if they threw him out there 25 rushes a game and defenses are actually ready for him this time

You call me delusional but I am laying down very thorough and well-researched arguments based on stats and facts.

I say that those arguing with narratives and anecdotes are the delusional ones espousing what amounts to obviously false points that are fabricated out of whole cloth and based in nothing but feelings and opinions.


I can’t fathom how anybody could be more convinced by anecdotes and narratives, but it happens en masse in elections, where politicians pander to the lowest common denominator voters by telling them about plumber Joe and the family they met in Detroit who doesn’t have water. I prefer to look at the actual data.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: RBBC in Kansas City

Postby knotts4372 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:39 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:35 pm
knotts4372 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:26 pm
FantasyDumDum wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:12 pm


Here’s what I see:


Stats - self evident, put up RB1 overall type numbers over 6 games, FPPT off the charts

Metrics - High end Combine scores

Ratings - Elite pass catching and blocking RB, average running ratings

Tape - beyond his excellent pass blocking and receiving, check out him trucking Derwin James or his Indy run in the playoffs.

Story - went to JC, started, chose OU and won the starting job, got kicked off team so went from 2-3 rd to UDFA, eventually won he starting job in Miami, then eventually won the starting job in KC. He earned it, and has shown enough to win the starting job at OU, in Miami, and in KC.

Situation - obvious and self evident. One of the very best situations for an RB, especially one with his specific talents, in history.



My question is what others don’t see?
this is more of why myself and others think/thought you must be trolling in the other thread or you are just completely delusional. he didnt EARN the starting job. he was the last man standing. his situation is very very far from obvious to anyone looking at this objectively.

ive conceded he could do some things as the head of a rbbc. i actually dont hate him in that role honestly. give him 10-15 touches a game i think fine he'll be a decent flex guy ok no problem for a guy you took off the waiver wire, but seriously stop actintg like hes the next great thing when his sample size is what 4 good games? imho this rbbc news is really the best thing for him and his ff owners. him getting 10-15 touches might keep him somewhat relevant longer than if they threw him out there 25 rushes a game and defenses are actually ready for him this time

You call me delusional but I am laying down very thorough and well-researched arguments based on stats and facts.

I say that those arguing with narratives and anecdotes are the delusional ones espousing what amounts to obviously false points that are fabricated out of whole cloth and based in nothing but feelings and opinions.


I can’t fathom how anybody could be more convinced by anecdotes and narratives, but it happens en masse in elections, where politicians pander to the lowest common denominator voters by telling them about plumber Joe and the family they met in Detroit who doesn’t have water. I prefer to look at the actual data.
what false points are you referring to? the fact hes done really nothing before those 4 good games last year? the fact he didnt earn the starting job at all but got the job cause he was the only guy left?

also why are you bringing politics into anything here? lmfao lets stick to the subject.
Good and the Bad 16 teams 50 man rosters http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/20 ... =07&F=0013

DLF hall of famers 16 teams 25 man roster
http://football29.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... =07&F=0016


IRONCLAD 16 teams 40 man rosters http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/leagues/133985/teams/
974566


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