Thoughts on CMC

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Pullo Vision
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Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:23 am

I dismissed McCaffrey last year because his size seemed it would limit him long term- primarily to satellite back roles and to only a few carries.

Last week's 28 carry 184 yard performance has me ready to consider, if he maintains that throughout the season and Carolina does make him the bellcow they've mentioned.

Thoughts on CMC now?
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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby slaughterrt » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:44 am

I’ve been a fan since he came in. Everyone wanted to knock him because of his size saying that he would never be an every down back. Last week disproved that notion and showed he is capable.

The thing is, all RBs (and any player for that matter) are one hit away (or even one non contact cut away) from potential injury. It’s the nature of the game. I don’t believe CMC is in any more danger of getting hurt compared to any other RB.

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:17 am

I need to see more rushing performances like that before jumping to an alternative conclusion. Obviously it was a really good game, but I still have doubt about him being a long-term workhorse back.

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:06 am

I think he should be in the top tier of backs in PPR. 2nd tier in non PPR. Hes basically Danny Woodhead but on all downs instead of just 3rd. A better runner as well
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Spinkso » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:10 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:06 am
I think he should be in the top tier of backs in PPR. 2nd tier in non PPR. Hes basically Danny Woodhead but on all downs instead of just 3rd. A better runner as well
You spelled Brian Westbrook wrong. Danny Woodhead? Come on...

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:11 pm

Spinkso wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:10 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:06 am
I think he should be in the top tier of backs in PPR. 2nd tier in non PPR. Hes basically Danny Woodhead but on all downs instead of just 3rd. A better runner as well
You spelled Brian Westbrook wrong. Danny Woodhead? Come on...
Knew there was a better comparison. Please forgive me master
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby AlPal&Ange » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:20 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:11 pm
Spinkso wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:10 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:06 am
I think he should be in the top tier of backs in PPR. 2nd tier in non PPR. Hes basically Danny Woodhead but on all downs instead of just 3rd. A better runner as well
You spelled Brian Westbrook wrong. Danny Woodhead? Come on...
Knew there was a better comparison. Please forgive me master
Really like that Westbrook comparison. For me he's probably RB behind, in no particular order, Gurley, Kamara, Zeke, Barkley. He's just such a safe asset with his catching ability. If he can flash the running prowess like he did last week he will hold that spot for a long time. However, I just don't see him vaulting into that tier 1 ever.
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Thoughts on CMC

Postby FantasyDumDum » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:38 pm

Sorry about the formatting. If you read through each set of 8 games stats, then you can really get a feel for how CMC has improved so substantially and steadily in each step of his career so far...



Games 1-8 of career:
49 carries, 117y, 2.4ypc, 0 TD
66 targets, 49 receptions, 378y, 7.7ypr, 2 TD
0.5ppr points - 85.5
 
Games 9-16:
68 carries, 318y, 4.7ypc, 2 TD
47 targets, 31 receptions, 273y, 8.8ypr, 3 TD
0.5ppr points - 105.6
 
Games 17-24:
109 carries, 502y, 4.6ypc, 3 TD
58 targets, 49 receptions, 378y, 7.7ypr, 2 TD
0.5ppr points - 142.5

Games 25-32:
110 carries, 596y, 5.4ypc, 4 TD
66 targets, 58 receptions, 489y, 8.4ypr, 4 TD
0.5ppr points - 185.5

Those numbers are really stark, and raise the question of whether CMC has hit his peak production or if his improvement trend will continue further upward, as the above would seem to suggest.

He has gone from 85.5 —> 105.6 —> 142.5 —> 185.5 fantasy points in each quartile of his career. That is like going from RB20 —> RB12 —> RB6 —> RB1 overall.



Norv and CMC say that his total snaps will be reduced but TOUCHES will actually increase in 2019. CMC had 326 touches in 2018, and Norv has had multiple RBs in the past far surpass that total, even getting RBs over 400 touches 4x, and 398 and 375 touches other times. 350 touches is definitely in the neighborhood for CMC.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.denver ... tions/amp/

Cam is going to be running less this year. Means more carries for CMC, which is where the bulk of his increased touches would come from. I could easily see an additional 1-2 per game, to bring his carries total from 219 last year, more into the 240-250 range in 2019.
https://twitter.com/daverichard/status/ ... 96385?s=21





With that increase in touches of only just 1-2 per game, 350 touches being the expectation, then I believe 350+ points 0.5ppr is too. CMC is such a monster and the best is yet to come. He is as durable as anyone or even moreso, and I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect his peak to be longer than average because of that, and why we shouldn’t expect him to be at the level he is already at or above for the foreseeable future. I honestly don’t see why he doesn’t take more, albeit likely smaller, steps forward in the next year or two and then maintain that for several more years until his late 20s, and I think he is a safer bet to do that than most any RB ever is. I think CMC and Saquon are close to equal dynasty assets and are in a tier of their own above everyone else.

That’s all.
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QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby perkinsrooster » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:23 pm

I think he should have a bright future. Having said that he is a running back so you never really know. I plan to hold for this year but I could understand someone selling now for a massive haul.

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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby Blueboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:33 pm

He's definitely at peak value, but that doesn't necessarily make him a sell. If I owned him anywhere I'd be looking to cruise to some championships over the next three years.

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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby TheNuts » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:18 am

I would look to sell after this year. Give me Kamara over CMC if looking at value down the road, because Kamara isn't going to take the same punishment. Plus Kamara is so efficient with his touches

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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby remedy29 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:36 pm

Not to bring race into this, but I can't think of a white RB that can compare to CMC. The dude is an amazing talent.
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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby Ray Finkle » Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:15 am

remedy29 wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:36 pm
Not to bring race into this, but I can't think of a white RB that can compare to CMC. The dude is an amazing talent.
I’d hate to see your post if you wanted to bring race into it. Ha, just giving you crap. You’re right though, he’s a unicorn. He’s like a full time version of Brent Barry winning an NBA dunk contest. Wtf?

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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby Bot101 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:28 am

Week 1-8 CMC averaged about 17 ppg in .5 PPR.

Week 9-16 CMC averaged about 25 ppg in .5 PPR.

Cam appeared on injury report with shoulder issue week 8. If Cam is healthy you should expect regression on CMCs fantasy ppg in 2019.

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Re: Thoughts on CMC

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:36 am

Bot101 wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:28 am
Week 1-8 CMC averaged about 17 ppg in .5 PPR.

Week 9-16 CMC averaged about 25 ppg in .5 PPR.

Cam appeared on injury report with shoulder issue week 8. If Cam is healthy you should expect regression on CMCs fantasy ppg in 2019.
In fairness that still would’ve made him rb5 even with just maintaining the weeks 1-8 numbers
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