2020 RB landing spots

[Blueboy]

Interesting you pick 40 & 600 as your marks since MVS had 38 & 581 last year. I'd say that's close enough. Funny the way you phrase it as if Jordy's been gone for years from the Pack; but, it's only been one year.

Since the subject is drafts/free agency, it makes sense to refer to Jordy's absence as a plural. Two years of opportunities to address the hole.

Conventional wisdom says that an elite QB will make his WRs better. GB is void of talent, not just at WR. Why would they be an obvious choice to draft a WR over other positions? Just because it helps our precious fantasy teams? NFL teams don't win by putting up fantasy points at the skill positions.

Now we're kind of straying away from the topic of the threat towards GB talk, but I won't complain.

I dunno if void of talent is fair. The offense isn't really lacking anywhere except WR, even if the top-end talent isn't exceptional. And the Packers have sold out to improve the defense over the last few offseasons, albeit they haven't shown results. And I'm certainly of the belief that good receivers are important to a QB, no matter how elite they are. Not talking fantasy terms, but real NFL.

[Go Bucks]

Ya, I think the Giants are the only team we can almost completely remove from the list of teams that could invest in a RB.

There are plenty of teams that are highly unlikely to draft a high Round RB;

Jets, Pat's, Broncos, Raiders, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys*, Giants, Eagles, Seattle, Panthers.

* Or whomever signs Elliot.

There are many others in the maybe category, but you won't get a clear picture until the off-season.

Interesting list. I agree with many of them, but I could see a few actually taking RBs early- NE, Denver and Philly.

Huh ? Those 3 teams would be among the LEAST likely to draft a RB early in 2020.

[djeternal2]

Interesting you pick 40 & 600 as your marks since MVS had 38 & 581 last year. I'd say that's close enough. Funny the way you phrase it as if Jordy's been gone for years from the Pack; but, it's only been one year.

Since the subject is drafts/free agency, it makes sense to refer to Jordy's absence as a plural. Two years of opportunities to address the hole.

Yes 2 preseasons including this year but your premise was how many WRs have put up 40 & 600 since Jordy left. Therefore we are only talking about 1 season unless you have a crystal ball that shows what will happen this year. Stop trying mental gymnastics to valid your original misleading post. And this is the last I'm responding in regards to this as we are straying from the premise of the thread which is landing spots for the 2020 RBs.

As for 2020 RB landing spots all of the obvious ones have been mentioned. This season will be interesting to watch because if any of the top RBs suffer a severe injury we could see those surprise team(s) becoming big players for RBs.

[Pullo Vision]

There are plenty of teams that are highly unlikely to draft a high Round RB;

Jets, Pat's, Broncos, Raiders, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys*, Giants, Eagles, Seattle, Panthers.

* Or whomever signs Elliot.

There are many others in the maybe category, but you won't get a clear picture until the off-season.

Interesting list. I agree with many of them, but I could see a few actually taking RBs early- NE, Denver and Philly.

Huh ? Those 3 teams would be among the LEAST likely to draft a RB early in 2020.

Not saying those teams are among the 10 most likely to draft one but I can see a way this happens-
NE- sophomore with long term health questions, rookie wild card and 3rd down back
Den- sophomore underachiever and overperforming UDFA sophomore coming back from a reportedly serious injury
Philly- rookie needs to seize command of crowded corps

I think Philly's the least likely to sink significant assets n to RB, even if Sanders blows like Ronald Jones year 1. Of the three, NE seems the most likely, especially with the uncertainty at QB long term. I could see the Patriots seizing the Cowboys model of using a strong run game and oline to hide a non elite QB, if Brady continues his physical decline or leaves.

[RoyalPalmer]

I was thinking about how stacked the draft is with potential starting RBs, but this season also is loaded with some RFA/UFA RBs. I feel like the supply of staring RB's will be much higher than the demand this offseason, whereas WR is almost the opposite. So let's take a look at the upcoming free agents and try to take a stab at where they could go and what it would do to their value.

Melvin Gordon - I think he signs elsewhere.
Austin Ekeler - Stays in SD. They potentially could draft someone else, or give Justin Jackson more snaps.
Kenyane Drake - It sure sounds like Cardinals would like to re-sign, but what happens to DJ at that point?
Derrick Henry - I feel like it would be a mistake not to re-sign, but it could also be an issue for a team that is needing to keep Tannehill and is up against the cap. Maybe he gets franchised and they draft a RB to eventually take over?
Kareem Hunt - RFA and will most likely stay. Houston could be a good landing spot or perhaps Buffalo would like someone to complement Singletary that is already established.
Leveon Bell - trade rumors are heating up
Carlos Hyde - backup at most
Lamar Miller - See C. Hyde
Frank Gore/AP/McCoy - all will either now get a contract after an injury or retire. However, I dont see any threating a starting position.

Here are the teams that will most likely need to add an RB through draft or free agency:
Kansas City - Could potentially use two-backs and I think everyone is salivating at the idea of them drafting one of the big names.
Miami - I could see them drafting, but perhaps they would prefer to use picks elsewhere and grab a vet like Gordon.
Atlanta - Most likely will draft, but are more in a win-now mode and I could see them interested in a guy like Hunt or Henry if they can manage the cap.
Houston - Most likely a draft candidate for the cheaper contract. Win-now could make them take a swing at a free agent though, maybe even trade for Bell.

Teams that are more situational that could need an RB:
Buffalo - I think they want someone to complement Singletary. Another potential spot for a UFA if they would prefer to use draft capital on WR and O-line
Detroit - How much faith do they have in Kerryon staying healthy? Could be a nice place for a free agent
Indiana - Is Mac the guy, or would they prefer to have a heavy back to supplement him, much like what could happen with Buffalo?
Chargers - depending on what happens with Gordon and Ekeler they could be looking to add.
New York Jets - Completely dependent on Bell leaving. They are probably looking to add a back in the next 2-3 years regardless
San Fransisco - Do they stick with the committee or continue to look for a true workhorse?
Tampa Bay - Does Arians trust Rojo?
Titans - dependent on Henry.

The list seems long but if certain players don't move like Henry or Bell and other teams stick with what they have like Detroit or TB then this list starts to look much smaller. I really see it broken down like this:
4 teams absolutely need a starting back.
Out of the maybe teams I think TB, Buffalo and San Fransisco add in some capacity.
Out of the free agent list I believe 2 will find new homes (Gordon and Bell)

So from the 7 teams that could potentially use a new starting back 2 could be filled by free agents. That would leave 5 teams needing a back from the draft.
Taylor
Swift
Dobbins
Entienne
Harris

Maybe I answered my own question and a lot of this plays out evenly via draft and free agency but was curious what others thoughts were.

[Pullo Vision]

And we're here! FA and the draft will be so fun!

[Factory of Sadness]

A lot of teams are set at RB. Of those that might take a back, plenty have elements that would make you worry. You don't want your rookie to have to worry about Kerryon, Singletary or Lindsay for instance. You don't want them in San Diego with Ekeler getting all the passing game work. You definitely don't want Adam Gase to be their head coach...

So the only spots that look both likely, and somewhat promising seem to be-
Dolphins- Might have to wait for success
Chiefs- Fantastic
Texans- Fantastic
Seahawks- Short term great, Penny a worry.
Falcons- Freeman and the O-line a worry.

If you love Swift, Taylor and Dobbins and like Akers and CEH a lot less, what do you do if it falls out like this?

Dolphins- Taylor
Chiefs- CEH
Texans- Akers
Seahawks- Swift
Falcons- Dobbins

Or in a nightmare scenario-

Jets- Swift
Lions- Dobbins
Bills- Taylor
Broncos- Akers
Jaguars- CEH
Chiefs- Vaughn
Texans- Moss
Dolphins- Benjamin
Seahawks-Dillon

This kind of hell-scape is perfectly possible and it would make for the most enjoyable dynasty draft imaginable...
It's also why trading your rookie picks immediately before the NFL draft can be a sharp move.

Can anyone imagine a worse/more confusing landscape that's vaguely plausible? Would be fun to see if we could go even darker.

[Mjvb5]

A lot of teams are set at RB. Of those that might take a back, plenty have elements that would make you worry. You don't want your rookie to have to worry about Kerryon, Singletary or Lindsay for instance. You don't want them in San Diego with Ekeler getting all the passing game work. You definitely don't want Adam Gase to be their head coach...

So the only spots that look both likely, and somewhat promising seem to be-
Dolphins- Might have to wait for success
Chiefs- Fantastic
Texans- Fantastic
Seahawks- Short term great, Penny a worry.
Falcons- Freeman and the O-line a worry.

If you love Swift, Taylor and Dobbins and like Akers and CEH a lot less, what do you do if it falls out like this?

Dolphins- Taylor
Chiefs- CEH
Texans- Akers
Seahawks- Swift
Falcons- Dobbins

Or in a nightmare scenario-

Jets- Swift
Lions- Dobbins
Bills- Taylor
Broncos- Akers
Jaguars- CEH
Chiefs- Vaughn
Texans- Moss
Dolphins- Benjamin
Seahawks-Dillon

This kind of hell-scape is perfectly possible and it would make for the most enjoyable dynasty draft imaginable...
It's also why trading your rookie picks immediately before the NFL draft can be a sharp move.

Can anyone imagine a worse/more confusing landscape that's vaguely plausible? Would be fun to see if we could go even darker.

Carson might have something to say about short term

[bjd5211]

Assuming it's not a Harmon/Butler type situation, where those RBs get drafted much lower than anticipated, I would still draft those RBs at about the same spot we are all projecting them right now. Situations change fast in the NFL, and talent eventually rises to the top. How did AJ Brown and Hollywood not teach people not to get too wrapped up in situation? WR is even more reliant on situation than RB, and Tennessee and Baltimore were considered possibly the 2 worst WR landing spots a year ago. When AJB and Hollywood got drafted, they instantly free fell down a lot of fantasy draft boards, then they both went out and had excellent rookie seasons and their situations became radically different than what they were perceived as a year ago.

[Pullo Vision]

Assuming it's not a Harmon/Butler type situation, where those RBs get drafted much lower than anticipated, I would still draft those RBs at about the same spot we are all projecting them right now. Situations change fast in the NFL, and talent eventually rises to the top. How did AJ Brown and Hollywood not teach people not to get too wrapped up in situation? WR is even more reliant on situation than RB, and Tennessee and Baltimore were considered possibly the 2 worst WR landing spots a year ago. When AJB and Hollywood got drafted, they instantly free fell down a lot of fantasy draft boards, then they both went out and had excellent rookie seasons and their situations became radically different than what they were perceived as a year ago.

Are they, though?
1- The general opinion seems to be RB value/production is highest/most in their first few years, then slopes down after 28 or so.
2- WRs can easily maintain high end production past 30, even if they don't hit their first year or two.

Given these points, RBs are way more dependent on their rookie draft landing spot than WRs.

[Factory of Sadness]

Carson fractured his hip. That is a bad injury for a running back. Chirpy Pete can be as sunny about it as he likes, but the odds on Carson starting next season are not good.

[Mjvb5]

Carson fractured his hip. That is a bad injury for a running back. Chirpy Pete can be as sunny about it as he likes, but the odds on Carson starting next season are not good.

Penny is in a similar boat, so it’ll have to be one of the scrubs on roster or they’ll bring in a guy

[DJB]

I'm still a firm believer that the Bills are adding someone. Singletary is pretty small and I'm not sure he is built for a work horse load. He also really needs to improve his hands out of the backfield.

I'd love for one of Dobbins or Taylor to land there (Bills need someone to pound the rock , Swift isn't really that type). Otherwise my guess is we go RB in round 3 or later.

[Factory of Sadness]

WR a more pressing need with the first pick no?

[DJB]

WR a more pressing need with the first pick no?

Most definitely is but I still see RB as a need for my Bills