Lamar Miller Value

[CharlieKelly]

For anyone worried about Miller's production falling off as a bellcow now with Foreman in town, I'd suggest taking a look at his production from 2014-2015, before he became the bellcow for the Texans.

2014 - 216 rushes / 1099 yards / 8TDs , 28 rec / 275 yds / 1TD
2015 - 194 rushes / 874 yards / 8TDs, 47 rec / 397 yds / 2TD
2016 - 268 rushes / 1073 yards / 5TDs, 31 rec / 188 yds / 1TD

2014 avg. - 13 rushes, 2.5 receptions per game
2015 avg - 12 rushes, 3 receptions per game
2016 avg - 19 rushes, 2 receptions per game

2014 finish PPR - RB9
2015 finish PPR - RB6
2016 finish PPR - RB20

Foreman is not good in pass pro and Miller is still far and away the best receiving back on the roster. We've seen two seasons out of Miller where he's managed to finish as an RB1 while averaging less than 16 touches per game, and he doesn't have to deal with Brock as his QB anymore.

Long story short, Miller is better when he's not a bellcow. He still has RB1 upside.

[jcc6fd]

I think Miller is in line to maintain a similar level of production. However that means the aggressive RB5 ranking in dynasty he held before 2016 was outlandish. He can rebound and score more than in 2016 but he's best viewed as a fringe RB1, high RB2. This stinks for Foreman more than anyone, as he'll be the backup for at least the 2017 season barring a Miller injury

[jpatern21]

I agree he can still be productive but still hurt last night as I'm a Miller owner. And Foreman was a guy I liked coming into the draft. Hurts his value too.

[KCLep20]

Lamar Miller was never a bellcow back and those that thought he could be were fooling themselves. Last season proved he needed someone else to help with the thumping so he could bounce it outside and catch passes. I think think he's a high-end RB2, but that's more in line with what I've always thought...

[skip]

Lamar Miller was never a bellcow back and those that thought he could be were fooling themselves. Last season proved he needed someone else to help with the thumping so he could bounce it outside and catch passes. I think think he's a high-end RB2, but that's more in line with what I've always thought...

5th highest number of carries in the league was plenty enough to consider him a bell cow back. I love that people want to make excuses for Hopkins with a crap QB but don't recognize how good Miller's season was in spite of it.

[Ryantacular]

Miller would have had a better season, had teams not been forced to stop him, because they knew that's all we had offensively, with Brock not being a threat. If we get an aerial attack going now , things will open up for miller. I'm not worried about foreman messing up millers role at all.

[broncohead]

Lamar Miller was never a bellcow back and those that thought he could be were fooling themselves. Last season proved he needed someone else to help with the thumping so he could bounce it outside and catch passes. I think think he's a high-end RB2, but that's more in line with what I've always thought...

5th highest number of carries in the league was plenty enough to consider him a bell cow back. I love that people want to make excuses for Hopkins with a crap QB but don't recognize how good Miller's season was in spite of it.

Agree with this. Nobody was threatened by Osweiler even with Hopkins. Not to mention Texans bad OL play. Gurley is still a top end talent though...

[Kramer]

Plus with Watson at QB, they'll have to respect his rushing prowess, which will open even more things for the running game there.

[KCLep20]

Lamar Miller was never a bellcow back and those that thought he could be were fooling themselves. Last season proved he needed someone else to help with the thumping so he could bounce it outside and catch passes. I think think he's a high-end RB2, but that's more in line with what I've always thought...

5th highest number of carries in the league was plenty enough to consider him a bell cow back. I love that people want to make excuses for Hopkins with a crap QB but don't recognize how good Miller's season was in spite of it.

And they drafted a thumper the next year to help take the load off...he isn't a bellcow, he did have a season as one and it ended with him hurt and the team realizing it wasn't sustainable.

[Friction]

I think really the main thing to worry about would be gl carries. Maybe im wrong, but that offense should improve regardless, with the Brockness monster gone.

[ninotoreS]

Pretty darn surprised at the Texans picking Foreman. Miller is in trouble, I think.

[NattyDread]

I'd like to understand if the Texans' rationale for the Foreman pick was more about Miller or Alfred Blue.

[skip]

I'd like to understand if the Texans' rationale for the Foreman pick was more about Miller or Alfred Blue.

More about getting a better backup to Miller. This RB class was pretty overhyped.

[BuckeyeNation]

I'd like to understand if the Texans' rationale for the Foreman pick was more about Miller or Alfred Blue.

I think it's a bit of both. O'Brien came out around the end of the season or early in the offseason and touched on their belief that they overused Miller in '16, especially early in the season. Speaking to the latter, most teams would prefer to have more than one viable option at the RB position, and the Texans were definitely pretty barren at the position behind Miller.

This is the time of year where the masses like to think that any RB drafted in the first 4 rounds will automatically supplant the veteran in front of them. Foreman may or may not eventually be the lead back in HOU, but I doubt we see anything like that this season unless Miller misses significant time. Miller had 299 touches in 14 games in '16, and he's been a 200-250 touch RB previously in his career. I think the most likely answer here is that HOU wanted a reliable complement back for Miller and someone that they believe they can siphon off an extra 50-100 touches from what Miller received in '16, getting Miller back in that 200-250 touch range. I think that's where Miller is most effective anyways, as a 15 touch per game back as opposed to a 21-23 touch back.

[lukkynumber13]

I'd like to understand if the Texans' rationale for the Foreman pick was more about Miller or Alfred Blue.

More about getting a better backup to Miller. This RB class was pretty overhyped.

I think that's what he was asking: "is this pick an indictment on Miller as the starter, or Blue as the backup/Tanto role?"

And I agree with Skip. Them drafting Foreman early was ensuring they get a bigger back who can shoulder a chunk of the work and run better than Blue, when Miller is out