The Always Underappreciated AJ Green Thread

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tstafford
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The Always Underappreciated AJ Green Thread

Postby tstafford » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:22 am

All,

I'm curious how people view/use "expert" rankings for dynasty. I'm not criticizing the rankings themselves, I'm trying to understand how to interpret them.

In both the Essentials Guide and on FBG, AJ Green is ranked as the number 9 WR. Obviously he is much lower on the "contending team list" and in FBG's redraft listing.

So is the "main" dynasty ranking to be viewed as a list for rebuild? I guess my main point is that I can't really understand under what circumstances AJ Green is the number 9 most valuable WR in dynasty so that makes me question the intent of the rankings because obviously I'm missing something. Is the list to be viewed as a ranking of relative value (e.g. AJ Green has the 9th most "value")? At which point I suppose the list is a guide for making trades but not necessarily building a team. Or something.

Help me out.

Tim

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Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)

Postby seahawks506 » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:24 am

I don't think Green has the value of a top 10 WR (more like a low-mid WR2 at this point I think) but he's definitely being drafted like a top 10.
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Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)

Postby dlf_ericd » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:36 am

tstafford wrote:All,

I'm curious how people view/use "expert" rankings for dynasty. I'm not criticizing the rankings themselves, I'm trying to understand how to interpret them.

In both the Essentials Guide and on FBG, AJ Green is ranked as the number 9 WR. Obviously he is much lower on the "contending team list" and in FBG's redraft listing.

So is the "main" dynasty ranking to be viewed as a list for rebuild? I guess my main point is that I can't really understand under what circumstances AJ Green is the number 9 most valuable WR in dynasty so that makes me question the intent of the rankings because obviously I'm missing something. Is the list to be viewed as a ranking of relative value (e.g. AJ Green has the 9th most "value")? At which point I suppose the list is a guide for making trades but not necessarily building a team. Or something.

Help me out.

Tim
I usually think those rankings are always too high for rookie WR, but seem to represent a reasonable expectation for their floor long-term. Obviously, there's no way to tell who is going to be a bust and who isn't, but it seems to outline what kind of long-term potential a player has & some use it as a "this is as high as I would reasonably take this player in a start up draft" type of ranking.

I find it really hard to include rookies in regular rankings without seeing their role, preseason, or how their skills translate to the NFL.
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Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)

Postby hosler427 » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:03 am

I don't really look at rankings to be honest. I just watch as much football as I can, read as much as I can, and come up with my own. That said, I have Green as my #8 WR but you are 100% right. Rankings are somewhat useless because they should change depending on the makeup of your team. Green may be the #6 WR for a rebuilding team but the #18 WR for a win now team. It should be fluid.
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Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)

Postby skip » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:01 am

Subjectivity is far and away the #1 issue with any ranking system. I have little issue with seeing AJ Green ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR, though it may be a little higher than I am comfortable with. There are others who I believe are way too high or way too low.

Any owner should be breaking their players out in some kind of a system of rankings or tiers as it is easier to analyze value in trade/draft. A perfect example is the Wallace/Desean discussion. Some sided with Desean, more it seemed with Wallace - if we were to put them in tiers most of us may put him in the same tier. We may favor one over the other, but that part of it ends up being more subjective.

As the owner of the 1.1 (AJ Green), it was important to have him in a tier in regard to my willingness to move him. After I had drafted him I had a couple of owners probing me with questions in regard to whether or not I would have accepted certain players. One of them asked me if I would have accepted Dez straight up, who many regard as a top 10 WR. While most here know that I don't have him as a top 10 WR, I recognize that he is valued by many as such. It was a simple "no" and I moved on. So basically on my own valuation of Green, where he ranks is roughly correct in terms of "value". There are a couple of names behind him on that ranking I would move him for, but a couple of names in front who I wouldn't.
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Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)

Postby JohnnyFive » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:15 am

I only use rankings like the ones at DLF to see how other people value players. I also like to read what they say about them to gather as much information as I can to come up with my own rankings. I am sure most of you know your stuff when it comes to fantasy football and do much of the same. Gather Information and make your own list of who you like and who to stay away from. Also, I would never value a rookie inside the top 10 of any list. As far as AJ Green, with all the stuff I have read I value Jones just slightly higher, but not by much.
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What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby ascherb » Fri Nov 11, 2011 1:09 am

Is he on his way to the top tier?

If you were drafting dynasty for 2012, do you take A.J. before almost any WR?
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby cleanwillyb » Fri Nov 11, 2011 1:26 am

Yes and yes.

I mean, what more could you possibly expect from a rookie WR than what Green has done so far? He has looked every bit the player he was made out to be coming out of college and he's only going to grow.

To be clear, I take Green before ANY 2012 WR, not before 'almost any'.
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby RobertBobson » Fri Nov 11, 2011 1:33 am

cleanwillyb wrote:Yes and yes.

I mean, what more could you possibly expect from a rookie WR than what Green has done so far? He has looked every bit the player he was made out to be coming out of college and he's only going to grow.

To be clear, I take Green before ANY 2012 WR, not before 'almost any'.

I'm pretty sure he means start up and not rookie.. unless you mean you would take him over cj!
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby theimposter » Fri Nov 11, 2011 2:16 am

If you look for his ceiling, you're going to see an open sky with Megatron and Andre smiling down from the heavens.
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby tjaden » Fri Nov 11, 2011 4:06 am

VJax was an offer for him.
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby henry1jg » Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:05 am

theimposter wrote:If you look for his ceiling, you're going to see an open sky with Megatron and Andre smiling down from the heavens.
I agree. Sky's the limit.
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby tidewaterjc » Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:07 am

tjaden wrote:VJax was an offer for him.
That is horrible.... Green will be twice the WR VJax is - without the headaches.....
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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby tstafford » Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:17 am

ascherb wrote:Is he on his way to the top tier?

If you were drafting dynasty for 2012, do you take A.J. before almost any WR?
As to the second question: no I wouldn't. The exact order would depend on league scoring (PPR or non), but there are probably three or four guys I'd take ahead of Green. But that still makes him a solid/elite WR1 on my board and that's pretty huge for a rookie.

Note: If you meant just rookies, then yes I would take Green over all of them including Richardson. So to be clear, I wouldn't trade Green for the 2012 1.01 under any circumstances (meaning even if Richardson is drafted by the perfect NFL team for him). Richardson may well end up having more dynasty value than Green - productive RBs are always worth more than WRs (unless they're Mega). But for now, AJ Green is a proven commodity and for all we know Richardson could bust.

As to ceiling: There really isn't one. Frankly everything we've seen so far is just confirmation that we were right this preseason - he's super talented. It's astonishing that he's been able to put up these numbers so quickly, but we fully expected they'd come sooner or later. I've consistently said I believed he has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy WR and that's still where I'd take him.

Word of caution: I expect we will see a decrease in Green's production for the rest of 2011. He has bad match-ups, he's still a rookie, Dalton is still a rookie, etc. The length and wear and tear of an NFL season is very different than college. Don't be surprised to see some mediocre numbers the rest of the way, but have no fear AJ Green is a stud.

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Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?

Postby kiddragonsoft » Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:13 am

Yes i hate vjax hes the djax of the afc. I want to move him for value if i get a chance. Did u see how he friggin disappeared last night....
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K: Y Koo, R Bullock
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