When to take a Rookie

[skip]

I tend to be risk-averse in the early stages of a startup. I understand that people are excited about someone like AJ Green, but invariably he will be drafted ahead of proven guys who are well-established producers. Here is an example from a post on the 1st page of this section:

http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 68034&O=17

Green went at 2.8 ahead of Austin, Wallace, MJD, Mendy, etc. This is a very high risk selection given those other options. Chances are the owner felt that there was no way he was getting Green after the turn. I don't like the idea of going after a "want" before taking someone much more proven. For that matter, I feel this way about anyone, not just rookies.

I would never build my team in this manor. But if you want a rookie who is that highly regarded coming out, it is likely what you have to do to get him.

[tidewaterjc]

I tend to be risk-averse in the early stages of a startup. I understand that people are excited about someone like AJ Green, but invariably he will be drafted ahead of proven guys who are well-established producers. Here is an example from a post on the 1st page of this section:

http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 68034&O=17

Green went at 2.8 ahead of Austin, Wallace, MJD, Mendy, etc. This is a very high risk selection given those other options. Chances are the owner felt that there was no way he was getting Green after the turn. I don't like the idea of going after a "want" before taking someone much more proven. For that matter, I feel this way about anyone, not just rookies.

I would never build my team in this manor. But if you want a rookie who is that highly regarded coming out, it is likely what you have to do to get him.

Have to agree with Skip here, he's spot-on with this one.

FWIW-I don't have the energy to read his rebuttal if I disagreed.....LOL.... had to get that in Skip.....LOL

[skip]

FWIW-I don't have the energy to read his rebuttal if I disagreed.....LOL.... had to get that in Skip.....LOL

[pretender]

Startup Dynasty ppr 12 teams 24 rounds

AJ Green 2.8
Mark Ingram 3.1
Julio Jones 3.3
Greg Little 4.1
Daniel Thomas 4.3
Mikel LeShoure 6.4
Randall Cobb 7.5
Lance Kendricks 7.6
Leonard Hankerson 7.10
Torey Smith 7.12
Roy Helu 8.1
DeMarco Murray 8.3
Kendall Hunter 8.11
Jaquiezz Rodgers 9.1
Vincent Brown 9.8
Bilel Powell 10.1
Cam Cameron 10.3
Titus Young 10.10
Alex Green 11.3
Blaine Gabbert 11.7
Kyle Rudolph 11.10
Greg Salas 12.8
Edward Gates 14.2
Jake Locker 14.5
Andy Dalton 15.2
Colin Kaepernick 15.3

and more rookies all the way to the end

[tstafford]

Startup Dynasty ppr 12 teams 24 rounds

AJ Green 2.8
Mark Ingram 3.1
Julio Jones 3.3
Greg Little 4.1
Daniel Thomas 4.3

Makes the point - if you want them, you need to over draft them.

[jthirteentimes]

Startup Dynasty ppr 12 teams 24 rounds

AJ Green 2.8
Mark Ingram 3.1
Julio Jones 3.3
Greg Little 4.1
Daniel Thomas 4.3
Mikel LeShoure 6.4
Randall Cobb 7.5
Lance Kendricks 7.6
Leonard Hankerson 7.10
Torey Smith 7.12
Roy Helu 8.1
DeMarco Murray 8.3
Kendall Hunter 8.11
Jaquiezz Rodgers 9.1
Vincent Brown 9.8
Bilel Powell 10.1
Cam Cameron 10.3
Titus Young 10.10
Alex Green 11.3
Blaine Gabbert 11.7
Kyle Rudolph 11.10
Greg Salas 12.8
Edward Gates 14.2
Jake Locker 14.5
Andy Dalton 15.2
Colin Kaepernick 15.3

and more rookies all the way to the end

Thanks for posting. Some ommissions and one incredibly odd freudian slip that I noticed...

Cam Cameron
Ryan Williams?
Delone Carter?
Shane Vereen?

[pretender]

Startup Dynasty ppr 12 teams 24 rounds

AJ Green 2.8
Mark Ingram 3.1
Julio Jones 3.3
Greg Little 4.1
Daniel Thomas 4.3
Mikel LeShoure 6.4
Randall Cobb 7.5
Lance Kendricks 7.6
Leonard Hankerson 7.10
Torey Smith 7.12
Roy Helu 8.1
DeMarco Murray 8.3
Kendall Hunter 8.11
Jaquiezz Rodgers 9.1
Vincent Brown 9.8
Bilel Powell 10.1
Cam Cameron 10.3
Titus Young 10.10
Alex Green 11.3
Blaine Gabbert 11.7
Kyle Rudolph 11.10
Greg Salas 12.8
Edward Gates 14.2
Jake Locker 14.5
Andy Dalton 15.2
Colin Kaepernick 15.3

and more rookies all the way to the end

Thanks for posting. Some ommissions and one incredibly odd freudian slip that I noticed...

Cam Cameron
Ryan Williams? 4.11
Delone Carter? 8.6
Shane Vereen? 7.8

Ok sorry half QB half TE LOL yes i did miss a few sorry my bad

[danes1212]

Edit, didn't realize this thread was in the "dynasty league discussion" board. I'm gonna go post my related question on the team advice section.

[RobertBobson]

I'm in a 12team ppt dynasty start up
Inghram 3.05
Aj green 3.11
D Thomas 4.11
J Jones 6.06
R Williams 7.08. ( my selection!!!)
Murray 7.10
Leanings 7.11

FYI

Great value on jones and Williams. I'd way rather have Williams in the 7th than ingram in the 3rd.

[RobertBobson]

Edit, didn't realize this thread was in the "dynasty league discussion" board. I'm gonna go post my related question on the team advice section.

Don't sweat it, I think this belongs here. it's more of a draft philosophy discussion, than it is specific team advice.

[danes1212]

Edit, didn't realize this thread was in the "dynasty league discussion" board. I'm gonna go post my related question on the team advice section.

Don't sweat it, I think this belongs here. it's more of a draft philosophy discussion, than it is specific team advice.

Thanks. I guess I could phrase it hear as a strategy question then. I'm currently in the 6th round of 10 team (0.5 ppr, IDP) start-up dynasty league. Would it be appropriate for me draft A.J. Green now? I thought it was great that he hasn't been drafted yet. But, I was thinking of drafting a proven (yet young) LB also, as no one has drafted an IDP yet.

What is a good time to draft an IDP then? Or should I go with a rookie WR pick right now, as he might not last till round 7?

Thanks

Team Settings- (1 QB, 3 RB, 2 WR/RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 DT, 1 DE, 3 LB, 1 DL, 2 CB, 2 SS, 1 DP Utility, 1 K, 1 P). I have drafted a QB, 2 RB, 1 WR, and 1 TE through 5 rounds.

[RobertBobson]

the sixth round is a fine place to take him. You already have a lot of core spots taken care off, you can gamble a little with a talent like greens.

If no one has drafted an IDP yet, I'd keep waiting. I don't play IDP, but what I understand of the draft strat, I wouldn't want to be the one to break the seal, as long as there were plenty of IDP talents left, I'd be concerned with filling out my offensive players first.

[danes1212]

the sixth round is a fine place to take him. You already have a lot of core spots taken care off, you can gamble a little with a talent like greens.

If no one has drafted an IDP yet, I'd keep waiting. I don't play IDP, but what I understand of the draft strat, I wouldn't want to be the one to break the seal, as long as there were plenty of IDP talents left, I'd be concerned with filling out my offensive players first.

Thanks Robert This is my first start-up dynasty draft so I greatly appreciate your feedback. I've just been reading some articles on IDP drafting, and I'd have to agree, I can probably wait a few rounds before drafting a stud LB.

[hosler427]

I tend to be risk-averse in the early stages of a startup. I understand that people are excited about someone like AJ Green, but invariably he will be drafted ahead of proven guys who are well-established producers. Here is an example from a post on the 1st page of this section:

http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... 68034&O=17

Green went at 2.8 ahead of Austin, Wallace, MJD, Mendy, etc. This is a very high risk selection given those other options. Chances are the owner felt that there was no way he was getting Green after the turn. I don't like the idea of going after a "want" before taking someone much more proven. For that matter, I feel this way about anyone, not just rookies.

I would never build my team in this manor. But if you want a rookie who is that highly regarded coming out, it is likely what you have to do to get him.

I agree Skip. Most of those selections are terrible IMO but personally I would take AJ Green over Wallace without a doubt. It goes to personal player evaluations and if I don't think Wallace can maintain the level of production he did last year AND I have Green projected as a top 5 WR, I am going to take the player I believe in. It is also about limiting risk per position. If you get an AJ Green in the early 3rd, take an estabilished vet in the 4th. Recently in a startup, the team that took AJ Green at 3.1, took Reggie Wayne in the early 4th. I prefer to mix and match like this. Get established vets and high upside young players.