July Value Jumps (Mizelle-based)

[Cult of Dionysus]

So was looking at Mizelle's date for July (link:viewtopic.php?f=5&t=177629&hilit=Mizelle ) and I focused only on guys who's value jumped 30+ points:

• Tyreek Hill (35) - Easy to understand since his outlook seems to be improving.
• MVS (32) - No idea why
• Donte Moncrief (31) - No idea why
• DeSean Jackson (34) - No idea why
• Josh Gordon (49) - Guess because he threw with Tom Brady...
• Jack Doyle (30) - Why?
• Justin Jackson (36) - probably cuz of Melvin's holdout
• Tom Brady (39) - Guess because he threw with Josh Gordon...
• AP (31) - Why?
• Mike Weber (49) - Were people that worried about Zeke and Vegas?

What I found interesting is that I actually can't put my finger on at least half of these big value jumps.

[AussieMate]

AP will probably be because of Guice's hamstring injury and the idea that AP wouldn't go anywhere he isn't the lead back.
MVS because it seems he will be the slot guy for Rodgers.
Doyle I've heard a few podcasts pump him up based on snap count and targets that was rather compelling.

Can't help with the others though ha, who knows why Gordon or Brady are getting a boost or why Jackson is rising.

[Cult of Dionysus]

So what your saying is that the Mizelle drafters are heavily influenced by up to the minute news and articles/podcasts/forum discussions....

I guess that isn't surprising. We (and by that I mean us hardcore "there's no off season" types) are equally swayed from week to week.

[themburns]

It's a combination of hyper-reactivity and statistical noise. They only take 6 of these every month, that's a lot of variance. In additon, there is little way to correct in case someone drafts a player 10 rounds early.

As for your set of names, there are a few on there that deserve to be rising. The data was taken I believe before Gordon announced his holdout, the Jackson love is probably more about the chance that backfield is open in 2020. As for Moncrief, the WR2 in Pittsburgh is a very productive role historically and Roethlisberger has been hyping him up without being asked. He's a good buy in a lot of places imo. Gordon has the most volatile ADP of any player in that last decade. This is just the time of year he heats up. And yeah, if you have him on roster, he might be a fine flex until his next incident.

[hockeyBjj]

Good information. Thank you

MVS I've long thought was undervalued. This to me seems like a more normal one for a guy whos shown a connection with Rodgers when he's had the opportunity as a starter

Moncrief is getting some coach speak and beat writer hype that he's set to be Big Ben's number two from camp looks

AP- Guice with a hurt hammy which always linger, on top of coming back from a knee injury that recovery wasn't clean. AP could be 80-90% of what he was last year.

[Phaded]

Most of these don't make sense - I agree.
Keep in mind though, all it takes is a couple owners to be way higher on someone to massively skew ADP.
Offseason hype is a reason for a lot of these, though.

I like Weber a lot; but as nothing more than a flier.

[IBall2]

So what your saying is that the Mizelle drafters are heavily influenced by up to the minute news and articles/podcasts/forum discussions....

I guess that isn't surprising. We (and by that I mean us hardcore "there's no off season" types) are equally swayed from week to week.

He pulls the mock draft results directly from 6 MFL mock drafts that DLF runs. I'm not sure who participates in those but they aren't specifically "Mizelle's drafters". Not sure that clears anything up but just information to have.

The way he has it automatically set up, the players drafted just once get a boost because their ADP is based on a single drafters pick. So people like Mike Weber (only drafted in 1 out of 6 leagues) got a boost because the 1 person that drafted him early.

In the configuration options at the top of the Mizelle page, if you sort by "Adjusted average 2" it gives all undrafted players a rank of 251 or something like that. So for the Mike Weber example, he was drafted 1 time at 186. The adjusted average adds on 5 additional draft positions of 251 to bring down his average to a more realistic value.

Mike Weber goes from ADP 186 to 231
Justin Jackson from 167 to 216
Brady would go from 175 to 197
DJax goes from 157 to 171
Doyle from 163 to 176

As for MVS/Moncrief/Gordon/AP, they were drafted in all 6 drafts so their adjusted average wont change and I can't speak for why their July ADP changed.

[hoos89]

MVS bumped because he's been getting reps at WR2 in practice.

Also you should pay attention to total number of drafts a player was taken in. Justin Jackson only went in 2 of 6 drafts, whereas he went in 6 in June. His value actually went down. Also, at the very bottom of the draft things are effected more by one or two mock drafters reaching for a guy. Values down there are not nearly as crystallized. Even large changes in ADP are not necessarily reflective of an actual market value change.

[ericanadian]

So was looking at Mizelle's date for July (link:viewtopic.php?f=5&t=177629&hilit=Mizelle ) and I focused only on guys who's value jumped 30+ points:

• Tyreek Hill (35) - Easy to understand since his outlook seems to be improving.
• MVS (32) - No idea why
• Donte Moncrief (31) - No idea why
• DeSean Jackson (34) - No idea why
• Josh Gordon (49) - Guess because he threw with Tom Brady...
• Jack Doyle (30) - Why?
• Justin Jackson (36) - probably cuz of Melvin's holdout
• Tom Brady (39) - Guess because he threw with Josh Gordon...
• AP (31) - Why?
• Mike Weber (49) - Were people that worried about Zeke and Vegas?

What I found interesting is that I actually can't put my finger on at least half of these big value jumps.

All signs point to MVS having passed Geronimo Allison for the WR2 role. I think the assumption was that Allison would return to that role now that he’s healthy.

[jcc6fd]

So was looking at Mizelle's date for July (link:viewtopic.php?f=5&t=177629&hilit=Mizelle ) and I focused only on guys who's value jumped 30+ points:

• Tyreek Hill (35) - Easy to understand since his outlook seems to be improving.
• MVS (32) - No idea why
• Donte Moncrief (31) - No idea why
• DeSean Jackson (34) - No idea why
• Josh Gordon (49) - Guess because he threw with Tom Brady...
• Jack Doyle (30) - Why?
• Justin Jackson (36) - probably cuz of Melvin's holdout
• Tom Brady (39) - Guess because he threw with Josh Gordon...
• AP (31) - Why?
• Mike Weber (49) - Were people that worried about Zeke and Vegas?

What I found interesting is that I actually can't put my finger on at least half of these big value jumps.

Thanks for compiling this Cult. To hit on a few that others haven't yet
Moncrief is getting hype as the No 2 in PIT
My guess on DJax is just the reality that we're getting closer to the season, he's being labeled the WR2, and people like the PHI offense.
Doyle is healthy. people saw what Ebron did and think a healthy Doyle with a healthy Luck could pay dividends in a high powered offense without too many established pass catchers.

[Flgatorguy87]

Most of these are value corrections. People catching up to what the year round folks have been seeing since year end.

[ArrylT]

Just an FYI that the July ADP is now on the DLF website as well. Interesting that Barkley went 2nd overall in 2 different mocks ...

[dark_knite03]

Just an FYI that the July ADP is now on the DLF website as well. Interesting that Barkley went 2nd overall in 2 different mocks ...

Superflex or 2 qb leagues I would imagine

[killer_of_giants]

It's a combination of hyper-reactivity and statistical noise. They only take 6 of these every month, that's a lot of variance. In additon, there is little way to correct in case someone drafts a player 10 rounds early.

"adjusted average" takes out the highest and lowest draft position.
but i agree that with only 6 (mock...) drafts, it is vaguely indicative at best, and not really useful after just a few rounds.
if you do "adjusted average" you reduce your already small dataset even more. meh...

[hoos89]

Just an FYI that the July ADP is now on the DLF website as well. Interesting that Barkley went 2nd overall in 2 different mocks ...

Superflex or 2 qb leagues I would imagine

Mahomes didn't go higher than #24 in any draft, so no. All the mocks are 1QB.